國(guó)際金融(與“匯率”有關(guān)的文檔共54張)

國(guó)際金融第一頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。Chapter10:Fixed,FloatingandManagedExchageRatesTheCaseforFixedExchangeRatesTheCaseforFloatingExchangeRates人民幣匯率固定匯率與浮動(dòng)匯率的歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)第二頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。IntroductionThefloatingexchangeratesystem,inplacesince1973,wasnotwellplannedbeforeitsinception.Bythemid-1980s,economistsandpolicymakershadbecomemoreskepticalaboutthebenefitsofaninternationalmonetarysystembasedonfloatingrates.Whyhastheperformanceoffloatingratesbeensodisappointing?Whatdirectionshouldreformofthecurrentsystemtake?Thischaptercomparesthemacroeconomicpolicyproblemsofdifferentexchangerateregimes.第三頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。固定匯率與浮動(dòng)匯率比較單一性浮動(dòng)匯率：調(diào)節(jié)對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡的唯一手段固定匯率：貶值不利于產(chǎn)業(yè)的升級(jí)自發(fā)性浮動(dòng)匯率：匯率自發(fā)調(diào)節(jié)固定匯率：導(dǎo)致匯率變動(dòng)的因素很多國(guó)際收支的失衡不一定是由于價(jià)格引起浮動(dòng)匯率即使能起作用，也需要其他政策相配合第四頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。固定匯率與浮動(dòng)匯率比較微調(diào)性浮動(dòng)匯率：匯率調(diào)節(jié)是漸進(jìn)、微調(diào)的固定匯率：可以避免許多不需要的調(diào)整調(diào)整是調(diào)整的原因穩(wěn)定性浮動(dòng)匯率：穩(wěn)定性投機(jī)錯(cuò)誤定價(jià)，與政府博弈固定匯率：非穩(wěn)定性投機(jī)政府穩(wěn)定預(yù)期第五頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。內(nèi)外部均衡的利益政策自主性浮動(dòng)匯率：貨幣政策自主性固定匯率：貨幣政策缺乏獨(dú)立性贊成固定匯率的理由完全利用匯率政策解決外部平衡是不可能的匯率政策必須與其它政策相配合貶值會(huì)帶來(lái)通脹第六頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。內(nèi)外部均衡的利益政策紀(jì)律性浮動(dòng)匯率：固定匯率下，匯率的濫用固定匯率：外匯儲(chǔ)備存在自動(dòng)制約機(jī)制政策效率的放大性浮動(dòng)匯率：放大效應(yīng)固定匯率：政策一致性第七頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。對(duì)國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響貿(mào)易與投資浮動(dòng)匯率金融自由化推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)自由化國(guó)際金融市場(chǎng)可以規(guī)避匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)固定匯率：匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)于貿(mào)易與投資的危害規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的成本無(wú)法規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)展中國(guó)家缺乏避險(xiǎn)工具第八頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。對(duì)國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響通脹的國(guó)際傳播浮動(dòng)匯率匯率的波動(dòng)可以規(guī)避通脹的傳播固定匯率匯率波動(dòng)本身會(huì)帶來(lái)通脹國(guó)際間政策協(xié)調(diào)浮動(dòng)匯率：以鄰為壑匯率的大幅度波動(dòng)，引起注意，聯(lián)合干預(yù)成為可能固定匯率：不存在第九頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。TheCaseforFloatingExchangeRates

Therearethreeargumentsinfavoroffloatingexchangerates:（支持浮動(dòng)匯率論點(diǎn)）Monetarypolicyautonomy（貨幣政策自主性）Symmetry（對(duì)稱(chēng)性）Exchangeratesasautomaticstabilizers（自動(dòng)穩(wěn)定機(jī)制）第十頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。TheCaseforFloatingExchangeRates

MonetaryPolicyAutonomyFloatingexchangerates:RestoremonetarycontroltocentralbanksAlloweachcountrytochooseitsowndesiredlong-runinflationrate通過(guò)控制貨幣供給，選擇適度的通脹水平第十一頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。TheCaseforFloatingExchangeRates

SymmetryFloatingexchangeratesremovetwomainasymmetriesoftheBrettonWoodssystemandallow:CentralbanksabroadtobeabletodeterminetheirowndomesticmoneysuppliesTheU.S.tohavethesameopportunityasothercountriestoinfluenceitsexchangerateagainstforeigncurrencies布雷頓森林體系的非對(duì)稱(chēng)美國(guó)沒(méi)有調(diào)整余地與責(zé)任，其他國(guó)家必須調(diào)整第十二頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。TheCaseforFloatingExchangeRatesExchangeRatesasAutomaticStabilizersFloatingexchangeratesquicklyeliminatethe“fundamentaldisequilibriums”thathadledtoparitychangesandspeculativeattacksunderfixedrates.Figure19-1showsthatatemporaryfallinacountry’sexportdemandreducesthatcountry’soutputmoreunderafixedratethanafloatingrate.第十三頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。TheCaseAgainstFloatingExchangeRatesTherearefiveargumentsagainstfloatingrates:(反對(duì)浮動(dòng)匯率的論點(diǎn)）Discipline（紀(jì)律性）Destabilizingspeculationandmoneymarketdisturbances（非穩(wěn)定投機(jī)）Injurytointernationaltradeandinvestment（對(duì)國(guó)際貿(mào)易與投資的沖擊）Uncoordinatedeconomicpolicies（經(jīng)濟(jì)政策非一致性）Theillusionofgreaterautonomy（自主性幻覺(jué)）第十四頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。TheCaseAgainstFloatingExchangeRatesDiscipline（紀(jì)律性）Floatingexchangeratesdonotprovidedisciplineforcentralbanks.（通貨膨脹陷阱）Centralbanksmightembarkoninflationarypolicies(e.g.,theGermanhyperinflationofthe1920s).Thepro-floaters’responsewasthatafloatingexchangeratewouldbottleupinflationarydisturbanceswithinthecountrywhosegovernmentwasmisbehaving.（通脹預(yù)期）第十五頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。TheCaseAgainstFloatingExchangeRatesDestabilizingSpeculationandMoneyMarketDisturbancesFloatingexchangeratesallowdestabilizingspeculation.（非穩(wěn)定性投機(jī)=正反饋、趨勢(shì)投機(jī)）Countriescanbecaughtina“viciouscircle”ofdepreciationandinflation.Advocatesoffloatingratespointoutthatdestabilizingspeculatorsultimatelylosemoney.（穩(wěn)定性投機(jī)=負(fù)反饋、價(jià)值投資）Floatingexchangeratesmakeacountrymorevulnerabletomoneymarketdisturbances.Figure19-2illustratesthispoint.第十六頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。穩(wěn)定性投機(jī)？MV=STD(Sn)/Mean(Sn)30日收益率時(shí)間樣本數(shù)MVSP500指數(shù)1994-11-10---2011-05-2041605.62日元美元匯率1995-04-13---2011-05-204160123.88實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定性>金融市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定性>外匯市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定性第十七頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。TheCaseAgainstFloatingExchangeRatesInjurytoInternationalTradeandInvestmentFloatingrateshurtinternationaltradeandinvestmentbecausetheymakerelativeinternationalpricesmoreunpredictable：(匯率波動(dòng)不利于貿(mào)易與投資)Exportersandimportersfacegreaterexchangerisk.Internationalinvestmentsfacegreateruncertaintyabouttheirpayoffs.Supportersoffloatingexchangeratesarguethatforwardmarketscanbeusedtoprotecttradersagainstforeignexchangerisk.(外匯市場(chǎng)的套期保值規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，有成本)Theskepticsrepliedtothisargumentbypointingoutthatforwardexchangemarketswouldbeexpensive.第十八頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。TheCaseAgainstFloatingExchangeRatesUncoordinatedEconomicPoliciesFloatingexchangeratesleavecountriesfreetoengageincompetitivecurrencydepreciations.（競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性貶值，如當(dāng)下）Countriesmightadoptpolicieswithoutconsideringtheirpossiblebeggar-thy-neighboraspects.贊成：匯率的變動(dòng)提示聯(lián)合干預(yù)第十九頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。TheCaseAgainstFloatingExchangeRatesTheIllusionofGreaterAutonomyFloatingexchangeratesincreasetheuncertaintyintheeconomywithoutreallygivingmacroeconomicpolicygreaterfreedom.Acurrencydepreciationraisesdomesticinflationduetohigherwagesettlements.貨幣獨(dú)立性是一個(gè)錯(cuò)覺(jué)，因?yàn)樨泿艑捤蓵?huì)帶來(lái)貶值，貶值會(huì)帶來(lái)通脹美國(guó)QE2，但要求中國(guó)反通脹第二十頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。Table19-1:InflationRatesinMajorIndustrializedCountries,1973-1980 (percentperyear)TheCaseAgainstFloatingExchangeRates1973年第三次中東戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，贖罪日之戰(zhàn)；1979年伊朗革命；1980年兩伊戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)第二十一頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。NominalandRealEffectiveDollarExchangeRatesIndexes, 1975-2000TheCaseAgainstFloatingExchangeRates80年代美元大幅升值的原因1.拉美金融危機(jī)2.高利率3.全球經(jīng)濟(jì)滯漲1985年廣場(chǎng)協(xié)議后美元大幅貶值第二十二頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。石油價(jià)格第二十三頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。有效匯率有效匯率（EffectiveExchangeRate）是一種加權(quán)匯率指數(shù)。例如按照貿(mào)易比重加權(quán)的有效匯率美元指數(shù)美元指數(shù)是綜合反映美元在國(guó)際外匯市場(chǎng)的匯率情況的指標(biāo)，用來(lái)衡量美元對(duì)一攬子貨幣的匯率變化程度。第二十四頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。美元指數(shù)構(gòu)成幣別指數(shù)權(quán)重（％）：歐元57.6，日元13.6，英鎊11.9，加拿大元9.1，瑞典克朗4.2，瑞士法郎3.6基期美元指數(shù)USDX是參照1973年3月六種貨幣對(duì)美元匯率變化的幾何平均加權(quán)值來(lái)計(jì)算的。以100.00為基準(zhǔn)來(lái)衡量其價(jià)值。第二十五頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。石油價(jià)格第二十六頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。美元指數(shù)（2007年9月-2021年10月）2007年9月次貸危機(jī)，2021年9月雷曼破產(chǎn)，2021年3月次貸危機(jī)見(jiàn)底。第二十七頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。人民幣匯率變動(dòng)2005年7月人民幣匯率形成機(jī)制改革以來(lái)至2021年6月末，人民幣對(duì)美元匯率累計(jì)升值21.88%，對(duì)歐元匯率累計(jì)升值21.07%，對(duì)日元匯率累計(jì)貶值4.73%。根據(jù)國(guó)際清算銀行的計(jì)算，同期人民幣名義有效匯率升值18.5%，實(shí)際有效匯率升值21.5%。第二十八頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。人民幣匯率的變遷第一個(gè)階段：1949――1981年，國(guó)家采取嚴(yán)格管制的外匯管制，實(shí)行統(tǒng)收統(tǒng)支制度，匯率以固定匯率為基本特征；第二個(gè)階段：1981年――1994年，國(guó)家下放外貿(mào)經(jīng)營(yíng)權(quán)，鼓勵(lì)出口和利用外資，出口企業(yè)可以保留部分外匯或外匯額度，外匯價(jià)格實(shí)行雙軌制，匯率以管理浮動(dòng)為基本特征，匯率很不穩(wěn)定；第三個(gè)階段：1994年――1996年，實(shí)行官方匯率和市場(chǎng)匯率并軌，推行結(jié)售匯制度，取消外匯留成，為實(shí)現(xiàn)貿(mào)易項(xiàng)目可兌換創(chuàng)造條件；第四個(gè)階段：1996年――現(xiàn)在，實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目可兌換，積極推進(jìn)資本項(xiàng)目可兌換，匯率以管理浮動(dòng)為特征，匯率穩(wěn)定。第五個(gè)階段：2005年7月21日匯改，參考一籃子貨幣，管理浮動(dòng)第二十九頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。2005年7月21日匯率改革２００５年７月２１日１９時(shí)，中國(guó)人民銀行宣布啟動(dòng)人民幣匯率機(jī)制改革，人民幣對(duì)美元匯率一次提高２％，為８．１１元人民幣兌換１美元人民幣從釘住美元的固定匯率變?yōu)閰⒖家换@子貨幣管理浮動(dòng)什么是參考一籃子匯率？第三十頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。1952－2002人民幣匯率第三十一頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。匯改以來(lái)人民幣匯率第三十二頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。1USD+1EURO第三十三頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。MacroeconomicInterdependenceUnderaFloatingRateAssumethattherearetwolargecountries,HomeandForeign.MacroeconomicinterdependencebetweenHomeandForeign:EffectofapermanentmonetaryexpansionbyHomeHomeoutputrises,Home’scurrencydepreciates,andForeignoutputmayriseorfall.（貨幣擴(kuò)張導(dǎo)致貶值）EffectofapermanentfiscalexpansionbyHomeHomeoutputrises,Home’scurrencyappreciates,andForeignoutputrises.（財(cái)政擴(kuò)張拉動(dòng)外部增長(zhǎng)）越南戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)帶來(lái)日本崛起第三十四頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。MacroeconomicInterdependenceUnderaFloatingRate

UnemploymentRatesinMajorIndustrializedCountries, 1978-2000(percentofcivilianlaborforce)1.日、德通脹最低—實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)2.美國(guó)居中第三十五頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。MacroeconomicInterdependenceUnderaFloatingRateInflationRatesinMajorIndustrializedCountries 1981-2000,and1961-1971Average(percentperyear)1.日、德通脹最低—實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)2.美國(guó)居中第三十六頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。WhatHasBeenLearnedSince1973?MonetaryPolicyAutonomyFloatingexchangeratesallowedamuchlargerinternationaldivergenceininflationrates.High-inflationcountrieshavetendedtohaveweakercurrenciesthantheirlow-inflationneighbors.Intheshortrun,theeffectsofmonetaryandfiscalchangesaretransmittedacrossnationalbordersunderfloatingrates.國(guó)際間的傳遞第三十七頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。ExchangeRateTrendsandInflationDifferentials, 1973-2000WhatHasBeenLearnedSince1973?相對(duì)購(gòu)買(mǎi)力平價(jià)橫軸：相對(duì)價(jià)格縱軸：相對(duì)匯率樣本點(diǎn)：各國(guó)浮動(dòng)匯率下存在匯率轉(zhuǎn)嫁第三十八頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。WhatHasBeenLearnedSince1973?After1973centralbanksintervenedrepeatedlyintheforeignexchangemarkettoaltercurrencyvalues.央行干預(yù)頻繁Whydidcentralbankscontinuetointerveneevenintheabsenceofanyformalobligationtodoso?TostabilizeoutputandthepricelevelwhencertaindisturbancesoccurTopreventsharpchangesintheinternationalcompetitivenessoftradablegoodssectorsMonetarychangeshadamuchgreatershort-runeffectontherealexchangerateunderafloatingnominalexchangeratethanunderafixedone.第三十九頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。WhatHasBeenLearnedSince1973?SymmetryTheinternationalmonetarysystemdidnotbecomesymmetricuntilafter1973.Centralbankscontinuedtoholddollarreservesandintervene.Thecurrentfloating-ratesystemissimilarinsomewaystotheasymmetricreservecurrencysystemunderlyingtheBrettonWoodsarrangements(McKinnon).麥金農(nóng)指出：1979以后各國(guó)為了緩沖美元升值帶來(lái)的通脹，緊縮貨幣帶來(lái)衰退；美國(guó)并沒(méi)有放出貨幣，為非對(duì)稱(chēng)性；這一點(diǎn)與固定匯率具有相似之處。從更宏觀的層面上看，固定匯率與浮動(dòng)匯率具有同構(gòu)性第四十頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。WhatHasBeenLearnedSince1973?TheExchangeRateasanAutomaticStabilizerExperiencewiththetwooilshocksfavorsfloatingexchangerates.TheeffectsoftheU.S.fiscalexpansionafter1981providemixedevidenceonthesuccessoffloatingexchangerates.浮動(dòng)匯率是誰(shuí)的穩(wěn)定器？這才是關(guān)鍵的第四十一頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。WhatHasBeenLearnedSince1973?DisciplineInflationratesacceleratedafter1973andremainedhighthroughthesecondoilshock.Thesystemplacedfewerobviousrestraintsonunbalancedfiscalpolicies.Example:ThehighU.S.governmentbudgetdeficitsofthe1980s.浮動(dòng)匯率更有可能成為轉(zhuǎn)嫁危機(jī)的工具。第四十二頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。WhatHasBeenLearnedSince1973?DestabilizingSpeculationFloatingexchangerateshaveexhibitedmuchmoreday-to-dayvolatility.Thequestionofwhetherexchangeratevolatilityhasbeenexcessiveiscontroversial.Inthelongerterm,exchangerateshaveroughlyreflectedfundamentalchangesinmonetaryandfiscalpoliciesandnotdestabilizingspeculation.Experiencewithfloatingexchangeratescontradictstheideathatarbitraryexchangeratemovementscanleadto“viciouscircles”ofinflationanddepreciation.可能的結(jié)果是長(zhǎng)期波動(dòng)短期化，就象股指期貨一樣第四十三頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。WhatHasBeenLearnedSince1973?InternationalTradeandInvestmentInternationalfinancialintermediationexpandedstronglyafter1973ascountriesloweredbarrierstocapitalmovement.Formostcountries,theextentoftheirinternationaltradeshowsarisingtrendafterthemovetofloating.對(duì)于貿(mào)易與投資的影響可能是有益的，匯率顯然具有風(fēng)向標(biāo)的作用。第四十四頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。WhatHasBeenLearnedSince1973?PolicyCoordinationFloatingexchangerateshavenotpromotedinternationalpolicycoordination.沒(méi)有促進(jìn)政策的協(xié)調(diào)，相反可能是博弈Criticsoffloatinghavenotmadeastrongcasethattheproblemofbeggar-thy-neighborpolicieswoulddisappearunderanalternativecurrencyregime.（以鄰為壑）第四十五頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。AreFixedExchangeRates

EvenanOptionforMostCountries?Maintainingfixedexchangeratesinthelong-runrequiresstrictcontrolsovercapitalmovements.（資本管制是固定匯率的前提）Attemptstofixexchangerateswillnecessarilylackcredibilityandberelativelyshort-lived.Fixedrateswillnotdeliverthebenefitspromisedbytheirproponents.固定匯率可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致單邊利益第四十六頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。DirectionsforReformTheexperienceoffloatingdoesnotfullysupporteithertheearlyadvocatesofthatexchangeratesystemoritscritics.（浮動(dòng)匯率是新的慣例)Oneunambiguouslessonofexperienceisthatnoexchangeratesystemfunctionswellwheninternationaleconomiccooperationbreaksdown.(與固定匯率沒(méi)什么不同）Severelimitsonexchangerateflexibilityareunlikelytobereinstatedinthenearfuture.(重回固定匯率幾無(wú)可能)Increasedconsultationamongpolicymakersintheindustrialcountriesshouldimprovetheperformanceoffloatingrates.次貸危機(jī)以后：目標(biāo)區(qū)域制，也就是需要更多的合作第四十七頁(yè)，共54頁(yè)。SummaryTheweaknessesoftheBrettonWoodssystemledmanyeconomiststoadvocatefloatingexchangeratesbefore1973b