貝恩咨詢分析方法-rosrms2

Author: GiseleGarrawayROS/RMSMarch19981AgendaROS/RMSoverviewApplicationsROS/RMSstepsClientexampleswirelessinfrastructuredrugretailingChallengesKeytakeaways2AgendaROS/RMSoverviewApplicationsROS/RMSstepsClientexampleswirelessinfrastructuredrugretailingChallengesKeytakeaways3ROS/RMSGraphROS/RMSisadiagnostictoolusedtocompareabusinessunit’sactualprofitabilitytoitspotentialprofitability.0%5%10%15%20%25%30%125DunsterEliotCurrierCabotProfitability$150MMRevenueNormativeband(Predictedpotentialprofitability)RelativeMarketShare4ROS/RMSComponentsWhatismeasured:Howitismeasured?Scale:TherearethreemaincomponentsofanROS/RMSgraph:profitability,relativemarketshareandthenormativeband.*ThistoolistypicallycalledROS/RMSsinceROSisthemostcommonprofitabilitymeasureused**AllowsforeasyviewingofadoublinginrelativemarketshareProfitability(y-axis)Currentprofitabilityreturnoncapitalemployedreturnonequityreturnonassetsreturnonsales*LinearRMS

(x-axis)

AccumulatedexperienceandstrategicpositionRelativemarketshare(RMS)Logarithmic**Normativeband

Rangeofpredictedprofitability

Plusandminusonestandarddeviationfromregressionline-------5ROS/RMSRelationshipCompanieswithhigherrelativemarketsharetendtohavemoreaccumulatedexperience.Higheraccumulatedexperiencegivesthepotentialforlowercostsandhigherprofitability.HigheraccumulatedexperienceispositivelycorrelatedwithRMSHigheraccumulatedexperienceprovidesanopportunityforlowercostsandhigherprofitsRMSisaproxyforaccumulatedexperience.RMSispositivelycorrelatedwithprofitabilityAccumulatedExperienceRMSRMSProfitabilityAccumulatedExperienceCostperunit6ImportanceofMarketShareSource:PIMS(Datafrom1970tothepresentof3,200businesses-66%manufacturing,20%consumerbusinesses,14%services)Usingrelativemarketshareasapredictorofprofitabilityissupportedbyempiricalevidence.ThePIMSdatabasedemonstratesthat,onaverage,acrossindustries,companieswithgreatermarketsharehavehigherprofitability.7AgendaROS/RMSoverviewApplicationsROS/RMSstepsClientexampleswirelessinfrastructuredrugretailingChallengesKeytakeaways8ApplicationsBainhasusedROS/RMSeffectivelyformanyclients.ExamplesofBainworkare:Computers&OfficeEquipmentElectric&PowerEquipmentSituation:Result:AmajorPCmanufacturerrecentlysufferedsignificantoperatinglossesandwasexperiencingseverecashflowproblems

Anelectric&powerequipmentcompanywasevaluatingamanufacturerofdiscretesemiconductorsforpurchase.Theclientwasconcernedaboutindustrycyclicalityandwhetherthetarget’sprofitmarginswereunsustainablyhighBainusedROS/RMSanalysistoexaminethePCindustryandfoundthatmovingtheclientintothenormativebandthroughoperationalimprovementswouldresultina$174MMprofitbeforetaximprovementRMS/ROSanalysisrevealedthatthetarget’smarginsreflecteditsmarketsharepositionandaccumulatedexperienceandwerethereforesustainable;thetarget’shighRMShelpeddriveEBITmarginsinexcessof20%9AgendaROS/RMSoverviewApplicationsROS/RMSstepsClientexampleswirelessinfrastructuredrugretailingChallengesKeytakeaways10ROS/RMSStepsTherearefivebasicstepsinvolvedinROS/RMSanalysis:DefinethebusinessCalculateprofitabilityCalculaterelativemarketsharesDrawnormativebandDetermineactionimplicationsKeySuccessFactorsDeterminetheeconomicboundariesofthebusinessIdentifyrelevantcompetitorsAchievecomparabilityacrosscompetitorsIncludeanysharedexperienceIfbusinessislocalorregional,weightmarketsharesCalculatethenormativebandusingregressionanalysisDetermineifstrategicoroperationalimprovementsarerequired11ROS/RMSStepsDefinethebusinessCalculateprofitabilityCalculaterelativemarketsharesDrawnormativebandDetermineactionimplicationsDeterminetheeconomicboundariesofthebusinessIdentifyrelevantcompetitorsKeySuccessFactors12DefiningtheBusinessEffectiveROS/RMSanalysisdependsoncorrectlydefiningtheeconomicboundariesofabusiness.Costsharingandcustomersharingaretheprimarydeterminantsofbusinessdefinition.HighCostsharingLowLowHighCustomersharingOnebusiness

(chargecardsandcreditcards)Onebusinesswithpotentialfordifferentiationornicheposition

(CrosspensandBICpens)Separatebusinesswithpotentialforcostleadership(oilandrefineryby-products)Separatebusinesses(beeranddistilledspirits)Separatebusinesseswithpotentialforbundling(touringqualitymicrophonesandspeakers)Onebusinesswithpotentialforsubstitution(milkcartonsandglassmilkbottles)13CorrectMarketShareMeasure*StatisticalmarketareasDeterminingwhetherabusinessislocal,regional,ornationalisalsoimportant.Incorrectlydefinedbusiness

Nationaldiscountdepartmentstore

Correctlydefinedbusiness

Regionaldiscountdepartmentstores0.310.96R-squared:Whenbusinessdefinitioniscorrect,thereisameaningfulpredictiverelationship14RelevantCompetitors-IncorrectBusinessDefinitionAnincorrectbusinessdefinitionmayexcluderelevantcompetitorsfromROS/RMSanalysis.NationalTextileLaunderingItappearsGibbhasthreemajorcompetitorsandisunderperforming15RelevantCompetitors-CorrectBusinessDefinitionRegionalhealthcarelaunderingRegionalindustriallaunderingGibbhassixcompetitors.Gibbisinthreeseparatebusinesses,allofwhichareregional.Thecorrectbusinessdefinitionwillensurethatallrelevantcompetitorsareconsidered.Regionallinenlaundering16ROS/RMSStepsDefinethebusinessCalculateprofitabilityCalculaterelativemarketsharesDrawnormativebandDetermineactionimplicationsKeySuccessFactorsAchievecomparabilityacrosscompetitors17NetincomeaftertaxSalesAftertaxoperatingprofitAverageassetsNetincomeaftertaxesAverageequityNetincomeaftertaxesCapitalemployed*Pre-taxprofitabilitymeasuresarepreferablebecausetheyexcludeanyfirm-specifictaxissuesROCE

(Returnoncapitalemployed)ROE

(Returnonequity)Disadvantages:DifficulttomakecomparableacrosscompaniesDifficulttomakecomparableacrosscompaniesNotalwaysclearwhichassetmeasurestouse(Bookvalue?Beforedepreciationorafter?)ROA

(Returnonassets)Advantages:Bestproxyforreturn

oninvestmentsBestproxyforreturnonshareholders’investmentsEasytocollectcomparablemeasuresacrosscompetitorsBainexample:DrugstorechainsRetaildepartment

storesBeverageindustryCalculation:*ROS

(Returnonsales)Theprofitabilitymeasureusedvariesfromcasetocase.Thekeyistouseameasurethatwillallowforanapples-to-applescomparisonacrossrelevantcompetitors.EliminatestheeffectsofhowassetsarefinancedResultsaresometimesunclearwhensomecompetitorscommandalargepricepremiumBuildingproductsCalculatingProfitability18ROS/RMSStepsDefinethebusinessCalculateprofitabilityCalculaterelativemarketsharesDrawnormativebandDetermineactionimplicationsKeySuccessFactorsIncludeanysharedexperienceIfbusinessislocalorregional,weightmarketshares19CalculatingRelativeMarketShare*Revenuesorpointsofsharecanbeusedwhenunitsarenotavailable.Therelativemarketshareforthemarketleaderiscalculatedinrelationtothe#2player;theRMSforallotherplayersiscalculatedinrelationtothemarketleader.Leader’sRMS:Anyotherplayer’sRMS:Marketleader’sunitssold#2player’sunitssoldOtherplayer’sunitssoldMarketleader’sunitssoldItispreferabletouseunits*insteadofrevenuesincewebelieveaccumulatedunitsofexperiencedrivethepotentialforhigherrelativeprofitability20SharedExperience(1of2)Whenpotentialsharedexperienceisignored,thepredictivepowerofROS/RMSislimited.Inthisexample,marketshareinoutboardmotorsdoesnotexplainprofitability.21SharedExperience(2of2)Whenthebenefitsofsharedexperiencewithlawnmowersandmotorcyclesisincluded,apositivecorrelationappears.WorldwideRelativeMarketShareofOutboards,IncludingSharedExperienceWithMotorcyclesandLawnmowersPretaxReturnonCapital6x54321.580%60%40%20%0%(20%)(40%)YamahaOMCMercuryChryslerOutboardMotorsvolume22ROS/RMSStepsDefinethebusinessCalculateprofitabilityCalculaterelativemarketsharesDrawnormativebandDetermineactionimplicationsKeySuccessFactorsCalculatethenormativenormativebandusingregressionanalysis23DrawingtheNormativeBand(1of2)*TheBainGraphicsWizarddrawsthenormativebandautomaticallywhentheRMSandROSdatapointsaregiven.Itwillnothowever,calculateanR2ThefirststepindrawingthenormativebandistorunaregressiononROSandthelogofRMS.Wethencalculatethebestfit,orregressionline.CompetitorUnits(MM)RMSIn(RMS)CannonCastleHolmesPeabody4,9603,4002,1786,2000.800.550.351.25-0.22-0.60-1.05-0.22MultipleRRsquareAdjustedRsquareStandarderrorObservations0.7412980.5495230.3993630.399363

Intercept0.1145

X-variable1CoefficientsStandarderrorT-statP-value0.01547.450.0050.04650.02431.19130.152Regressionstatistics5ROS12.3%10.8%4.5%10.5%Whitman3,1820.51-0.678.4%Regressionoutput(fromExcel)Y=mx+bROS=0.0465(lnRMS)+0.1145BestFitLine24DrawingtheNormativeBand(2of2)RMSOnestandarddeviationThenormativebandisdrawnbyapplyingplusorminusonestandarddeviationtothebestfitline.ProfitabilityBestfitline(regressionline)Where, n=numberofobservations x=observedvalue m=mean=1n-1ni=1(Xi-m)225NormativeBandTheBainGraphicsWizardwilldrawanormativebandautomaticallybasedontheinputvaluesofROSandRMS.26AdjustedNormativeBandIfwebelievethataplayerhasmismanageditscostsandhasnotgottenthefullbenefitsofitsexperience,wecanexcludeitfromthecalculationofthenormativeband.*Theresultingnormativebandwillbemorenarrow.*IntheWizard,gotothe“Series”menuandselect“removeseriesfromnormativeband.”27ROS/RMSStepsDefinethebusinessCalculateprofitabilityCalculaterelativemarketsharesDrawnormativebandDetermineactionimplicationsKeySuccessFactorsDetermineifstrategicoroperationalimprovementsarerequired28ActionImplicationsAfirm’spositionontheROS/RMSgraphhelpscaseteamstodeterminewhetherabusinessshouldpursuestrategicpositioningoroperationalimprovements.Examples:Suggestedactions:Peabodyisbelowthenormativeband;itsprofitabilityislowgivenitsrelativemarketshareCostreductionstrategyBlandfordcanimproveitsprofitabilityifitincreasesitsmarketshareandcapturesexperiencebenefitsGrowthstrategyMergersandacquisitionsOperationalImprovementStrategicPositioning29AgendaROS/RMSoverviewApplicationsROS/RMSstepsClientexampleswirelessinfrastructuredrugretailingChallengesKeytakeaways30LAGTEL*-Background*DisguisedclientcaseSituation:LAGTELisa$6Btelecomplayer.Wirelessinfrastructureisa$2BbusinessunitofLAGTEL,anditistheonly“star”businessinLAGTEL’sportfolio.Allotherbusinessunitsaredogs.Complication:Thewirelessinfrastructuredivision’sprofitabilityisfallingamidrisingovercapacityinNorthAmerica.Managementexpectsthattheover-capacitywillcontinuetodrivepricesdownward.Moreover,LAGTEL’sreturnsare2%whilefourcompetitorsearninexcessof10%operatingmarginsQuestion:HowcanLAGTELimproveitslong-termprofitability?BainusedROS/RMSanalysistodevelopastrategyforawirelesstelecommunicationsbusiness.31Source:NatwestSecurities;CSFirstBoston;Killen&Associates;WirelessOperatingPlan25%20%15%10%5%0%(5%)(10%).11.5251020LAGTELCallumsE-telLuciaAlliance$2B1995WirelessInfrastructurerevenue

RelativeMarketShare(TotalTelecom)OperatingProfitMarginTelcoTheprofitabilityvs.overallscaledidnotdemonstrateorclearnormativeband.LAGTEL-Background32LAGTEL-WirelessRMSSource:NatwestSecurities;CSFirstBoston;Killen&Associates;WirelessOperatingPlanTheteam“peeledtheonion”andfoundastrongerrelationshipbetweenwirelessonlyRMSandwirelessinfrastructureprofitability.$2B1995WirelessInfrastructureRevenue25%20%15%10%5%0%(5%)(10%).11.52510LuciaAllianceE-telTelcoLAGTELCallumsRelativeMarketShare(Wireless)OperatingProfitMarginBilltelR2=0.5233LAGTEL-Technology-WeightedRMS

*WeightedbymanufacturerrevenuebytechnologyWhenRMSwasadjustedforthemixofwirelesstechnology,anevenstrongerrelationshipappeared.LAGTEL’sprofitabilitywaslowconsideringitsshare,andLAGTELwasconsiderablybehindfourkeycompetitors.$2B1995WirelessInfrastructureRevenueSource:NatwestSecurities;CSFirstBoston;Killen&Associates;WirelessOperatingPlan20%15%10%5%0%(5%)(10%).2.3.511.52510LuciaE-telAllianceTelcoLAGTELCallumsBilltel.1Technology-weightedRMS*OperatingProfitMarginR2=0.7334LAGTEL-StrategicRecommendation*WeightedbymanufacturerrevenuebytechnologyAfteradditionalcompetitoranalysis,theteamrecommendedapossiblemergerwithoneofthetopfourplayerstoimproveLAGTEL’sprofitability.$2B1995WirelessInfrastructureRevenueSource:NatwestSecurities;CSFirstBoston;Killen&Associates;WirelessOperatingPlan20%15%10%5%0%(5%)(10%).2.3.511.52510LuciaE-telAllianceTelcoCallumsBilltel.1Technology-weightedRMS*OperatingProfitMarginLAGTEL(current)LAGTEL(projected)R2=0.7335LAGTEL-RegressionPredictedSynergyValues

Source:BainROS/RMSRegressionModelTheteamusedtheROS/RMSregressiontopredictthesynergyvalueofpossiblecompetitorcombinations.Thesynergyvaluesrangedfrom$1.2Bto$2.3B.36AgendaROS/RMSoverviewApplicationsROS/RMSstepsClientexampleswirelessinfrastructuredrugretailingChallengesKeytakeaways37Pillz*-Background*DisguisedclientexampleSituation:Complication:PillzisaleadingretailerofpharmaceuticalsinCanada.Itparticipatesinthesaleofprescriptionsandover-the-counterdrugsintraditionaldrugstores.Pillz’smanagementhasaskedBaintoassistinrepositioningPillztobecomethemostprofitabledrugretailerinNorthAmericaPillz’sdominanceisbeingthreatenedbytheentryofnon-traditionalcompetitorsincludingfoodretailersandmassmerchantsBainusedROS/RMSanalysistounderstandtheprofitabilitypotentialofaCanadiandrugstoreretailchain.38Pillz-IndustryROS/RMSTheBainteamidentifiedtwonormativebands:oneforfood/drugcombosanddiscountmerchandisersandanotherfortraditionaldrugstores.Source:IMS,ChainStoreGuide,annualreports,Pillzinternaldata(5%)(3%)(1%)1%3%5%7%8%RegionalROS2.04.010.0RegionalRMS$500Mrevenue

LDPrairiesLawtonsAtlanticPPONPillzAtlanticPillzPrairiesSafewayWal-MartLDBCJCPQLoblawsPillzONTraditionalchannelNon-traditionalchannel39Pillz*-SummaryPillz’sprofitability(ROS)ishighlycorrelatedwithregionalRMSPillz’scompetitorshavesignificantcostadvantagesBecausethenormativebandforthenon-traditionalchannelissteeperthanforthetraditionalchannel,anincreaseinrelativemarketshareforanon-traditionalchannelcompetitorhasagreaterimpactonprofitabilitythanthesameincreasewouldhaveforatraditionaldrugstorecompetitorPreliminaryROS/RMSanalysishelpedtheBainteamdevelopsomekeyinsights.40AgendaROS/RMSoverviewApplicationsROS/RMSstepsClientexampleswirelessinfrastructuredrugretailingChallengesKeytakeaways41ChallengesInsomesituations,ROS/RMSanalysisisdifficulttoconduct.ItisdifficulttodefinethebusinessCompetitionhassignificantsharedexperiencefromotherbusinessesthatisdifficulttocaptureintheRMSmeasureMarketsharesmustbeweightedbecausethebusinessislocalorregionalOneormoresizablecompetitorsarenotleveragingtheiraccumulatedexperiencetoreducecosts42OtherBainToolsBainusesothertoolstoestimatepotentialprofitabilitywhenRMSorscaleisnottheprofitdriver.ExampleindustriesBaintoolKeyprofitdriverCustomerloyaltyPercentofcategorywhichispremiumpricedandrelativemarketshare

ofcategorySpeedofproductdevelopmentandreleaseRetentionHighroad/LowroadTime-to-marketAutoinsuranceCreditcardsAdvertisingConsumergoodstoothpasteready-to-eat-cerealsTechnologysemi-conductorsRetailfashionathleticgymshoes43AgendaROS/RMSoverviewApplicationsROS/RMSstepsClientexampleswirelessinfrastructuredrugretailingChallengesKeytakeaways44KeyTakeaways(1of3)OverviewROS/RMSComponentsROS/RMSisadiagnostictoolusedtocompareabusinessunit’sactualprofitabilitytoitspotentialprofitabilityROS/RMSsuggeststhatafirm’sprofitabilityshouldfallwithinapredictedrangebasedonitsrelativemarketshareTheROS/RMSrelationshipisbasedontheempiricalevidencethathighRMSispositivelycorrelatedwithhighprofitabilityProfitabilityisonthey-axisandisplottedonalinearscaleProfitabilitymeasuresincludeROCE,ROE,ROAorROS.ROSisthemostcommonRelativemarketshareisonthex-axisandisplottedonalogarithmicscale.RMSisaproxyforaccumulatedexperienceThenormativebandisthebandinwhichcompaniesshouldfallbasedontheirRMS.Itisdrawnbyapplyingplusorminusonestandarddeviationtothebestfitline.45KeyTakeaways(2of3)ImplicationsofROS/RMSAnalysisTheleader’sRMSiscalculatedasfollows:Anyotherplayer’sRMSiscalculatedasfollows:AfirmthatfallsbelowthenormativebandrequiresoperationalimprovementstoimproveprofitabilityAfirmthatlieswithinthenormativebandcanimproveitsprofitabilitybyimprovingitsstrategicpositionandgainingshareChallengesInsomesituations,ROS/RMSanalysisisdifficulttoconductitisdifficulttodefinethebusinesscompetitionhassignificantsharedexperiencefromotherbusinessesthatisdifficulttocaptureintheRMSmeasuremarketsharesmustbeweightedbecausethebusinessislocalorregionaloneormoresizablecompetitorsarenotleveragingtheiraccumulatedexperiencetoreducecostsMarketleader’sunitssold#2player’sunitssoldOtherplayer’sunitssoldMarketleader’sunitssold46KeyTakeaways(3of3)OtherToolsWhenRMSorscaleisnotakeydriverofprofitability,ROS/RMSisnotanappropriatetool47TakeawaySlides(1of2)Normativeband(Predictedpotentialprofitability)RelativeMarketShareHigheraccumulatedexperienceispositivelycorrelatedwithRMSHigheraccumulatedexperienceprovidesanopportunityforlowercostsandhigherprofitsRMSisaproxyforaccumulatedexperience.RMSispositivelycorrelatedwithprofitabilityAccumulatedExperienceRMSRMSProfitabilityAccumulatedExperienceCostperunitROS/RMSGraphROS/RMSRelationshipROS/RMSComponentsROS/RMSStepsDefinethebusinessCalculateprofitabilityCalculaterelativemarketsharesDrawnormativebandDetermineactionimplicationsKeySuccessFactorsDeterminetheeconomicboundariesofthebusinessIdentifyrelevantcompetitorsAchievecomparabilityacrosscompetitorsIncludeanysharedexperienceIfbusinessislocalorregional,weightmarketsharesCalculatethenormativebandusingregressionanalysisDetermineifstrategicoroperationalimprovementsarerequiredWhatismeasured:Howitismeasured?Scale:Profitability(y-axis)RMS(x-axis)NormativebandCurrentprofitabilit