宏觀經(jīng)濟學(xué)MBA教程課件

二、宏觀經(jīng)濟計量與核算

MEASURINGANATION’SINCOME二、宏觀經(jīng)濟計量與核算

MEASURINGANATIO1

TheCircularFlow

Households

GovernmentFirms

MarketsforFactorofProduction

FinancialMarketsMarketsforGoodsandServices

ForeignCountryFirmRevenueIncomeFactorPaymentsPrivateSavingTaxesGovernmentDeficitConsumptionGovernmentPurchasesInvestmentImportExportInternationalCapitalFlow

TheCircularFlowHousehold2RichardStone(理查德·斯通)1984年獲諾貝爾經(jīng)濟學(xué)獎。二戰(zhàn)期間，完成《戰(zhàn)爭財源分析及1938和1940國民收入和支出估計》白皮書。時任英國財政部顧問的凱恩斯感動地說：“我們在一個通過統(tǒng)計的快樂時代中”。1945年任劍橋大學(xué)新成立的應(yīng)用經(jīng)濟學(xué)系的第一任主任。1950年，受聯(lián)合國統(tǒng)計委員會委托，出版《國民帳戶體系》（SNA），1968年修訂后正式出版。1975年出版《社會和人口統(tǒng)計系統(tǒng)》（SSDS,Towardsasystemofsocialanddemographicstatistics）。RichardStone(理查德·斯通)1984年獲諾貝爾3WassilyLeontief(沃西里·里昂惕夫)1973年獲諾貝爾經(jīng)濟學(xué)獎。1906年出生在圣彼得堡，1929年任中國鐵道部顧問，1931年進入美國國民經(jīng)濟研究局（NBER），1946年哈佛大學(xué)經(jīng)濟學(xué)教授。1941年出版《美國經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)：1919-1929》，第一次用投入產(chǎn)出法進行經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)分析。1966年出版《投入產(chǎn)出經(jīng)濟學(xué)》。WassilyLeontief(沃西里·里昂惕夫)19734

●國民收入帳戶●投入產(chǎn)出表●資金循環(huán)表●國際收支表●國民資產(chǎn)負債表國民帳戶體系A(chǔ)SYSTEMOFNATIONALACCOUNTS國民帳戶體系5Grossdomesticproduct(GDP)isameasureoftheincomeandexpendituresofaneconomy.Itisthetotalmarketvalueofallfinalgoodsandservicesproducedwithinacountryinagiventimeperiod.GrossDomesticProductGrossdomesticproduct(GDP)i6ImportantFeaturesofGDPOutputisvaluedatmarketprices.Itrecordsonlythevalueoffinalgoods,notintermediategoods(thevalueiscountedonlyonce).Itincludesbothtangiblegoods(food,clothing,cars)andintangibleservices(haircuts,housecleaning,doctorvisits).ImportantFeaturesofGDPOutpu7ImportantFeaturesofGDPItincludesgoodsandservicescurrentlyproduced,nottransactionsinvolvinggoodsproducedinthepast.Itmeasuresthevalueofproductionwithinthegeographicconfinesofacountry.

ImportantFeaturesofGDPItin8ImportantFeaturesofGDPItmeasuresthevalueofproductionthattakesplacewithinaspecificintervaloftime,usuallyayearoraquarter(threemonths).ImportantFeaturesofGDPItme9WhatIsCountedinGDP?GDPincludesallitemsproducedintheeconomyandsoldlegallyinmarkets.WhatIsCountedinGDP?GDPinc10WhatIsNotCountedinGDP?GDPexcludesmostitemsthatareproducedandconsumedathomeandthatneverenterthemarketplace.Itexcludesitemsproducedandsoldillicitly,suchasillegaldrugs.WhatIsNotCountedinGDP?GDP11GrossNationalProductGrossnationalproduct(GNP)isthetotalmarketvalueofallfinalgoodsandservicesproducedwithinagivenperiodoftimebyanation’spermanentresidents,regardlessofwheretheyare.GrossNationalProductGrossna12ThreeOtherMeasuresofIncomeNetNationalProduct(NNP)PersonalIncomeDisposablePersonalIncomeThreeOtherMeasuresofIncome13NetNationalProduct(NNP)Thetotalincomeoftheresidentsofanationaftersubtractinglossesfromdepreciation.NetNationalProduct(NNP)The14PersonalIncomeTheincomethathouseholdsandnoncorporatebusinessesreceive.PersonalIncomeTheincomethat15DisposablePersonalIncomeTheincomethathouseholdandnoncorporatebusinesseshaveleftaftersatisfyingtheirobligationstothegovernment.DisposablePersonalIncomeThe16GrossNationalProductFromStatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStatesGrossNationalProductFromSta17GNP—NationalandPerCapitaIncomeFromStatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStatesGNP—NationalandPerCapita18NationalIncomeFromStatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStatesNationalIncomeFromStatistica19TheFourComponentsofGDPGDP(Y)isthesumofthefollowing:

?Consumption(C)

?Investment(I)

?GovernmentPurchases(G)

?NetExports(NX)Y=C+I+G+NXTheFourComponentsofGDPGDP20TheFourComponentsofGDP

Consumption(C):

?Thespendingbyhouseholdsongoods andservices,withtheexceptionof purchasesofnewhousing.Investment(I):

?Thespendingoncapitalequipment, inventories,andstructures,including newhousing.TheFourComponentsofGDPCon21TheFourComponentsofGDPGovernmentPurchases(G):

?Thespendingongoodsandservicesby local,state,andfederalgovernments.

?Doesnotincludetransferpayments becausetheyarenotmadeinexchangefor currentlyproducedgoodsorservices.NetExports

(NX):

?Exportsminusimports.TheFourComponentsofGDPGove22BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000BreakdownofU.S.GDP:200023BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000Consumption69%BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000Con24Investment15%BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000Consumption68%InvestmentBreakdownofU.S.GD25Consumption68%GovernmentPurchases19%BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000Investment15%ConsumptionGovernmentBreakdow26NetExports-1%BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000Consumption68%Investment15%GovernmentPurchases19%NetExportsBreakdownofU.S.G27RealversusNominalGDPNominalGDPvaluestheproductionofgoodsandservicesatcurrentprices.RealGDP

valuestheproductionofgoodsandservicesatconstantprices.

RealversusNominalGDPNominal28RealversusNominalGDPAnaccurateviewoftheeconomyrequiresadjustingnominaltorealGDPbyusingtheGDPdeflator.RealversusNominalGDPAnaccu29價格指數(shù)(PriceIndex)拉斯佩雷斯(Laspeyres)指數(shù)：帕斯卡(Pascke)指數(shù)：價格指數(shù)(PriceIndex)拉斯佩雷斯(Laspeyr30GDPDeflatorTheGDP

deflator

measuresthecurrentlevelofpricesrelativetothelevelofpricesinthebaseyear.IttellsustheriseinnominalGDPthatisattributabletoariseinpricesratherthanariseinthequantitiesproduced.GDPDeflatorTheGDPdeflatorm31GDPDeflatorTheGDPdeflatoriscalculatedasfollows:GDPDeflatorTheGDPdeflatori32GDPDeflatorTheGDPdeflatoriscalculatedasfollows:GDPDeflatorTheGDPdeflatori33ConvertingNominalGDPtoRealGDPNominalGDPisconvertedtorealGDPasfollows:ConvertingNominalGDPtoReal34ConvertingNominalGDPtoRealGDPNominalGDPisconvertedtorealGDPasfollows:ConvertingNominalGDPtoReal35ConsumerPriceIndexTheconsumerpriceindex

(CPI)isameasureoftheoverallcostofthegoodsandservicesboughtbyatypicalconsumer.Itisusedtomonitorchangesinthecostoflivingovertime.Itreportsthemovementofpricesusinganindexnumber.

ConsumerPriceIndexTheconsum36ConsumerPriceIndexWhentheCPIrises,thetypicalfamilyhastospendmoredollarstomaintainthesamestandardofliving.ConsumerPriceIndexWhentheC37TheConsumerPriceIndex

versustheGDPDeflatorEconomistsandpolicymakersuseboththeGDPdeflatorandtheconsumerpriceindextogaugehowquicklypricesarerising.Thereareimportantdifferencesbetweenthetwo.TheConsumerPriceIndex

ver38TheConsumerPriceIndex

versustheGDPDeflatorTheCPI... ...includesonlyconsumergoods. ...includesimports. ...ismeasuredusingafixedbasketofgoodsandservices.TheConsumerPriceIndex

ver39TheConsumerPriceIndex

versustheGDPDeflatorTheGDPPriceDeflator... ...includesallgoodsandservicesproduceddomestically. ...excludesimports. ...ismeasuredusingcurrentlyproducedgoodsandservices.TheConsumerPriceIndex

ver40GDPandEconomicWell-BeingGDPisthebestsinglemeasureoftheeconomicwell-beingofasociety.GDPperperson

tellsustheincomeandexpenditureoftheaveragepersonintheeconomy.GDPandEconomicWell-BeingGDP41GDPandEconomicWell-BeingHigherGDPperpersonindicatesahigherstandardofliving.GDPisnotaperfectmeasureofthe happinessorqualityoflife,however.GDPandEconomicWell-BeingHig42GDPandEconomicWell-BeingSomethingsthatcontributetowell-beingarenotincludedinGDP.

?Thevalueofleisure.

?Thevalueofacleanenvironment.

?Thevalueofalmostallactivitythattakesplaceoutsideofmarkets,suchasthevalueofthetimeparentsspendwiththeirchildren.GDPandEconomicWell-BeingSom43習(xí)題

下表描述的是作為最終產(chǎn)品出售給消費者的面包的生產(chǎn)過程。在生產(chǎn)過程的第一階段，農(nóng)民生產(chǎn)小麥2000千克并以每千克1.5元價格賣給面粉廠（假設(shè)每千克小麥做一個面包，生產(chǎn)過程沒有損耗）。面粉廠把小麥加工成面粉以每千克2.5元的價格賣給面包廠。面包廠制成面包以每個5元的價格賣給零售商。最后，零售商以每個面包7元的價格賣給消費者。請回答下列問題：（1）填充下表。（2）面包的增值總量為多少？消費者對面包的支出為多少？生產(chǎn)過程經(jīng)濟活動價格（元）增值額1農(nóng)民出售小麥1.52面粉廠出售面粉2.53面包廠出售面包5.04零售商出售面包7.0習(xí)題下表描述的是作為最終產(chǎn)品出售給消費者的面包的生產(chǎn)44二、宏觀經(jīng)濟計量與核算

MEASURINGANATION’SINCOME二、宏觀經(jīng)濟計量與核算

MEASURINGANATIO45

TheCircularFlow

Households

GovernmentFirms

MarketsforFactorofProduction

FinancialMarketsMarketsforGoodsandServices

ForeignCountryFirmRevenueIncomeFactorPaymentsPrivateSavingTaxesGovernmentDeficitConsumptionGovernmentPurchasesInvestmentImportExportInternationalCapitalFlow

TheCircularFlowHousehold46RichardStone(理查德·斯通)1984年獲諾貝爾經(jīng)濟學(xué)獎。二戰(zhàn)期間，完成《戰(zhàn)爭財源分析及1938和1940國民收入和支出估計》白皮書。時任英國財政部顧問的凱恩斯感動地說：“我們在一個通過統(tǒng)計的快樂時代中”。1945年任劍橋大學(xué)新成立的應(yīng)用經(jīng)濟學(xué)系的第一任主任。1950年，受聯(lián)合國統(tǒng)計委員會委托，出版《國民帳戶體系》（SNA），1968年修訂后正式出版。1975年出版《社會和人口統(tǒng)計系統(tǒng)》（SSDS,Towardsasystemofsocialanddemographicstatistics）。RichardStone(理查德·斯通)1984年獲諾貝爾47WassilyLeontief(沃西里·里昂惕夫)1973年獲諾貝爾經(jīng)濟學(xué)獎。1906年出生在圣彼得堡，1929年任中國鐵道部顧問，1931年進入美國國民經(jīng)濟研究局（NBER），1946年哈佛大學(xué)經(jīng)濟學(xué)教授。1941年出版《美國經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)：1919-1929》，第一次用投入產(chǎn)出法進行經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)分析。1966年出版《投入產(chǎn)出經(jīng)濟學(xué)》。WassilyLeontief(沃西里·里昂惕夫)197348

●國民收入帳戶●投入產(chǎn)出表●資金循環(huán)表●國際收支表●國民資產(chǎn)負債表國民帳戶體系A(chǔ)SYSTEMOFNATIONALACCOUNTS國民帳戶體系49Grossdomesticproduct(GDP)isameasureoftheincomeandexpendituresofaneconomy.Itisthetotalmarketvalueofallfinalgoodsandservicesproducedwithinacountryinagiventimeperiod.GrossDomesticProductGrossdomesticproduct(GDP)i50ImportantFeaturesofGDPOutputisvaluedatmarketprices.Itrecordsonlythevalueoffinalgoods,notintermediategoods(thevalueiscountedonlyonce).Itincludesbothtangiblegoods(food,clothing,cars)andintangibleservices(haircuts,housecleaning,doctorvisits).ImportantFeaturesofGDPOutpu51ImportantFeaturesofGDPItincludesgoodsandservicescurrentlyproduced,nottransactionsinvolvinggoodsproducedinthepast.Itmeasuresthevalueofproductionwithinthegeographicconfinesofacountry.

ImportantFeaturesofGDPItin52ImportantFeaturesofGDPItmeasuresthevalueofproductionthattakesplacewithinaspecificintervaloftime,usuallyayearoraquarter(threemonths).ImportantFeaturesofGDPItme53WhatIsCountedinGDP?GDPincludesallitemsproducedintheeconomyandsoldlegallyinmarkets.WhatIsCountedinGDP?GDPinc54WhatIsNotCountedinGDP?GDPexcludesmostitemsthatareproducedandconsumedathomeandthatneverenterthemarketplace.Itexcludesitemsproducedandsoldillicitly,suchasillegaldrugs.WhatIsNotCountedinGDP?GDP55GrossNationalProductGrossnationalproduct(GNP)isthetotalmarketvalueofallfinalgoodsandservicesproducedwithinagivenperiodoftimebyanation’spermanentresidents,regardlessofwheretheyare.GrossNationalProductGrossna56ThreeOtherMeasuresofIncomeNetNationalProduct(NNP)PersonalIncomeDisposablePersonalIncomeThreeOtherMeasuresofIncome57NetNationalProduct(NNP)Thetotalincomeoftheresidentsofanationaftersubtractinglossesfromdepreciation.NetNationalProduct(NNP)The58PersonalIncomeTheincomethathouseholdsandnoncorporatebusinessesreceive.PersonalIncomeTheincomethat59DisposablePersonalIncomeTheincomethathouseholdandnoncorporatebusinesseshaveleftaftersatisfyingtheirobligationstothegovernment.DisposablePersonalIncomeThe60GrossNationalProductFromStatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStatesGrossNationalProductFromSta61GNP—NationalandPerCapitaIncomeFromStatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStatesGNP—NationalandPerCapita62NationalIncomeFromStatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStatesNationalIncomeFromStatistica63TheFourComponentsofGDPGDP(Y)isthesumofthefollowing:

?Consumption(C)

?Investment(I)

?GovernmentPurchases(G)

?NetExports(NX)Y=C+I+G+NXTheFourComponentsofGDPGDP64TheFourComponentsofGDP

Consumption(C):

?Thespendingbyhouseholdsongoods andservices,withtheexceptionof purchasesofnewhousing.Investment(I):

?Thespendingoncapitalequipment, inventories,andstructures,including newhousing.TheFourComponentsofGDPCon65TheFourComponentsofGDPGovernmentPurchases(G):

?Thespendingongoodsandservicesby local,state,andfederalgovernments.

?Doesnotincludetransferpayments becausetheyarenotmadeinexchangefor currentlyproducedgoodsorservices.NetExports

(NX):

?Exportsminusimports.TheFourComponentsofGDPGove66BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000BreakdownofU.S.GDP:200067BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000Consumption69%BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000Con68Investment15%BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000Consumption68%InvestmentBreakdownofU.S.GD69Consumption68%GovernmentPurchases19%BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000Investment15%ConsumptionGovernmentBreakdow70NetExports-1%BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000Consumption68%Investment15%GovernmentPurchases19%NetExportsBreakdownofU.S.G71RealversusNominalGDPNominalGDPvaluestheproductionofgoodsandservicesatcurrentprices.RealGDP

valuestheproductionofgoodsandservicesatconstantprices.

RealversusNominalGDPNominal72RealversusNominalGDPAnaccurateviewoftheeconomyrequiresadjustingnominaltorealGDPbyusingtheGDPdeflator.RealversusNominalGDPAnaccu73價格指數(shù)(PriceIndex)拉斯佩雷斯(Laspeyres)指數(shù)：帕斯卡(Pascke)指數(shù)：價格指數(shù)(PriceIndex)拉斯佩雷斯(Laspeyr74GDPDeflatorTheGDP

deflator

measuresthecurrentlevelofpricesrelativetothelevelofpricesinthebaseyear.IttellsustheriseinnominalGDPthatisattributabletoariseinpricesratherthanariseinthequantitiesproduced.GDPDeflatorTheGDPdeflatorm75GDPDeflatorTheGDPdeflatoriscalculatedasfollows:GDPDeflatorTheGDPdeflatori76GDPDeflatorTheGDPdeflatoriscalculatedasfollows:GDPDeflatorTheGDPdeflatori77ConvertingNominalGDPtoRealGDPNominalGDPisconvertedtorealGDPasfollows:ConvertingNominalGDPtoReal78ConvertingNominalGDPtoRealGDPNominalGDPisconvertedtorealGDPasfollows:ConvertingNominalGDPtoReal79ConsumerPriceIndexTheconsumerpriceindex

(CPI)isameasureoftheoverallcostofthegoodsandservicesboughtbyatypicalconsumer.Itisusedtomonitorchangesinthecostoflivingovertime.Itreportsthemovementofpricesusinganindexnumber.

ConsumerPriceIndexTheconsum80ConsumerPriceIndexWhentheCPIrises,thetypicalfamilyhastospendmoredollarstomaintainthesamestandardofliving.ConsumerPriceIndexWhentheC81TheConsumerPriceIndex

versustheGDPDeflatorEconomistsandpolicymakersuseboththeGDPdeflatorandtheconsumerpriceindextogaugehowquicklypricesarerising.Thereareimportantdifferencesbetweenthetwo.TheConsumerPriceIndex

ver82TheConsumerPriceIndex

versustheGDPDeflator