短視頻直播電商行業(yè)分析報告

短視頻直播電商行業(yè)分析報告2020年5月

HYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINKHYPERLINK\l"br0"1HYPERLINK\l"br0"：相關標的估值及分紅情況HYPERLINK\l"br0"................................................................................................................................HYPERLINK\l"br0"84/241.從星期六到夢潔，短視頻直播電商主線上機會究竟有多大？從星期六到夢潔，短視頻直播電商主線上機會究竟有多大？C2M化夢潔股份6個交易日收獲5個漲停板，市值增長超20億。市場如此看好的原因在哪？行業(yè)主邏輯又應該如何演繹？1、技術導致內容傳播門檻降低，短視頻直播領域流量井噴圖：固定寬帶網絡平均下載速率快速提升圖：互聯(lián)網流量資費逐年下降37.6935.46固定寬帶網絡平均下載速率(Mbit/s）流量資費（元/GB）150.0431.3428.0624.9921.3115010050131.2920.1519.01516.4014.1174.0813.0111.907.908.349.462.933.533.714.034.094.255.126.1146.2920.798.5204.9902013201420152016201720182019圖：互聯(lián)網變遷過程中傳播媒介的變化圖：2016/01-2018/06中國移動互聯(lián)網用戶規(guī)模不斷擴張數(shù)據(jù)來源：天下秀公司年報，數(shù)據(jù)來源：Mobile數(shù)據(jù)庫，圖：2020年初抖音（左圖）突破4億、快手（右圖）突破3億5/24數(shù)據(jù)來源：2019抖音數(shù)據(jù)報告，2019快手內容報告，圖：從用戶使用時長占比來看，短視頻及在線視頻少皆宜且增長迅猛數(shù)據(jù)來源：Questmobile移動大數(shù)據(jù)研究院，備注：Z世代指后，小鎮(zhèn)青年指地處三級及以下城市的90后，白發(fā)老人是指50歲以上人群2、內容產出豐富，除頭部外，變現(xiàn)效率急需提升為2020/4/13稀缺的特征。圖：內容創(chuàng)作端KOL紅人市場分散億級千萬級百萬級十萬級330397825600005000040000300002000010000055470330392022978252831753333310122836000微博抖音快手小紅書數(shù)據(jù)來源：，2019年淘寶直播生態(tài)發(fā)展趨勢報告，GMV爆發(fā)式增長的原因可以歸結為：16/24整合上具備極強號召力；、數(shù)百人的運營團隊支撐保障了執(zhí)行力。運營團隊的支撐，能夠讓其做有效的商業(yè)轉化。3、運營服務的價值、供應鏈平臺的價值節(jié)。（12辛有志嚴選的CMO來，這種情況下主播的和平臺兩個結合起來就會產生更好的影響力，所以我們可來了更好的GMV，也給我們帶來了更強的供應鏈體系，這種可定制的供應鏈體系讓我4、從把握產業(yè)大趨勢出發(fā)，應關注星期六、天下秀與南極電商。商很有可能將隨之發(fā)展出特定、高效的組織體系，收割行業(yè)紅利。這一點。新經濟仍然是年最具成長性的大賽道！投資主線：韌性為先性影響，若從兩到三年視角去尋找標的，仍然建議關注三條主線：1）基于品牌產品滔搏、李寧。2）新模式、新經濟角度，關注南極電商、天下秀。3）從業(yè)績穩(wěn)定性和分紅率角度，可以關注比音勒芬、地素時尚、富安娜。7/242.相關標的估值水平表：相關標的估值及分紅情況市值歸母凈利（億元）2019分紅比例2020股息率上市公司（億元）2019YOY19PE2020YOY20PE2021YOY21PE2022YOY22PE港股體育2020.HK2331.HK安踏體育李寧1,68159553.415.051.024.37.330.3%110%12.2%10.6%11%31.539.724.221.88.756.715.749.029.65.26.1%5.0%29.737.825.217.912.171.920.957.535.26.526.8%32.9%17.4%19.1%25.6%23.428.421.415.09.784.926.066.818.1%24.3%16.2%19.822.918.430%25%50%50%62%1.0%0.7%2.0%2.8%5.1%2313.HK申洲國際滔搏1,232529-3.9%21.5%-28.6%6110.HK1368.HK特步國際637.413.8%26.5%8.5新模式002127.SZ600556.SH300577.SZ603839.SH其他品牌服裝3998.HK南極電商天下秀4093375712.12.62.33.036.1%63.8%30.1%7.7%33.9130.225.115.63.72.53.329.3%44.2%10.9%7.7%26.290.222.715.420.15.73.13.729.1%52.0%24.3%14.5%20.359.418.213.425.516.125%8%1.0%0.1%0.5%3.0%開潤股份安正時尚3.84.121.9%10.9%15.012.111%46%5016.6波司登地素時尚比音勒芬富安娜2209010.86.210.4%8.8%20.314.416.513.011.312.48.414.66.435.1%1.8%15.014.214.312.48.119.67.334.0%14.6%28.2%7.8%11.212.311.111.512.114.98.175%64%38%83%23%78%39%75%5.0%4.5%2.7%6.7%2.8%4.2%3.5%9.8%603587.SH002832.SZ002327.SZ603808.SH002563.SZ600398.SH1234.HK8.27.312.5%21.5%7.9%11.09.2674.139.1%-6.7%-2.3%-8.7%-7.1%8.1%4.715.8%4.8%6.0665.15.35.76.210.610.511.77.4歌力思403.64.938.4%-32.6%-24.4%-16.7%3.3-32.8%24.0%36.8%15.2%3.815.1%27.2%10.0%10.6%森馬服飾海瀾之家中國利郎1922695215.532.18.110.424.36.818.411.17.712.933.27.816.536.58.66.46.76.0紡織制造2678.HK天虹紡織健盛集團45368.82.7-24.0%32.4%5.110.62.820.4%1.0%4.213.93.330.2%20.9%3.217.73.927.8%15.6%2.59.431%39%7.3%3.0%603558.SH化妝品13.213.110.8688363.SH603605.SH603983.SH600315.SH300792.SZ300132.SZ華熙生物珀萊雅510309346250277975.93.95.15.62.24.538.2%36.7%24.0%3.1%87.178.767.144.9126.421.47.44.95.65.13.25.527.0%24.7%9.5%68.663.161.348.887.417.510.06.46.66.04.26.434.5%29.8%16.6%17.6%31.2%15.2%51.048.652.641.566.615.212.87.97.66.75.27.528.4%24.2%15.1%11.3%26.0%18.0%39.739.145.737.352.912.928%30%29%30%37%14%0.4%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.4%0.8%丸美股份上海家化壹網壹創(chuàng)青松股份-8.1%44.7%22.5%34.7%13.2%數(shù)據(jù)來源：預測，其中滔搏1920/2/29為止財年，波司登2020/3/31為止財年，華熙生物、珀萊雅、上海家化、青松股份為Wind一致預期3.4月零售逐漸復蘇、下游出口仍有壓力本周板塊表現(xiàn)回顧過去一周滬深1.28%，上證綜指下跌0.93%，深證成指下跌0.33%，其中8/24紡織服裝板塊下跌0.60%。圖：過去一年大盤及紡服板塊走勢5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%-30%-35%-40%數(shù)據(jù)來源：資訊，圖：年初至今紡服板塊漲幅前、跌幅前5150%124.50%100%50%89.48%83.36%34.18%33.47%29.52%24.77%18.23%17.84%16.00%0%延江股份中潛股份諾邦股份黑牡丹搜于特美爾雅嘉麟杰旺能環(huán)境曠達科技康隆達三毛拉夏貝爾