VECM模型實(shí)驗(yàn)-時(shí)間序列

實(shí)用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)文案基于VECM模型探究中國房地產(chǎn)市場對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響———— VECM模型實(shí)驗(yàn)姓名;何毛毛學(xué)號(hào)：班級(jí)：國際金融試驗(yàn)班精彩文檔實(shí)用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)文案第一部分 實(shí)驗(yàn)背景自1992年中國逐步確立市場經(jīng)濟(jì)以來的20多年里，投資，消費(fèi)，出口“三駕馬車”理論對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的巨大作用。政府?dāng)U大了對基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)的投資，以及中國的出口保持的高速增長態(tài)勢，對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的拉動(dòng)起到了很大的作用。第二部分 實(shí)驗(yàn)分析目的及方法故本文選取了商品房價(jià)格、居民消費(fèi)指數(shù)以及凈出口三個(gè)變量構(gòu)建 VEC模型，進(jìn)行協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)和向量誤差修正并得到脈沖相應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解結(jié)果，將中國現(xiàn)有數(shù)據(jù)現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析，得出房地產(chǎn)市場對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響。第三部分 實(shí)驗(yàn)樣本3.1數(shù)據(jù)來源數(shù)據(jù)來源于中經(jīng)網(wǎng)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)庫。3.2所選數(shù)據(jù)變量由于國家在 1998年把房地產(chǎn)業(yè)定為支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)，故本文選取了自 1999年1月至2014年10月的出口額、進(jìn)口額、CPI、房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)企業(yè)商品房銷售面積及其銷售額的累積額五個(gè)變量以月為單位的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行一定的處理得到商品房價(jià)格 P、居民消費(fèi)指數(shù) CPI以及凈出口 X三個(gè)變量構(gòu)建 VEC模型。第四部分 模型構(gòu)建4.1 數(shù)據(jù)處理 商品房價(jià)格精彩文檔實(shí)用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)文案由于商品房價(jià)格有較強(qiáng)的地域差異，故此處采用了較為簡單的處理方法。取用房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)企業(yè)商品房銷售面積以及房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)企業(yè)商品房銷售額的累計(jì)額，而由于我國不單獨(dú)對 1月份統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行調(diào)查，1-2月份數(shù)據(jù)一起調(diào)查，一起發(fā)布。所以序列缺少每年一月份的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，屬于非隨機(jī)、不可忽略缺失，在此采用一二月平均值得到一月份的數(shù)據(jù)。補(bǔ)全數(shù)據(jù)后在每一年度進(jìn)行差分處理得到當(dāng)月量，再把總銷售額與總銷售面積相除得到國內(nèi)市場上商品房的平均價(jià)格序列 P。由于序列P有較強(qiáng)的趨勢性，為了平滑房價(jià)的變動(dòng)趨勢，對 P做對數(shù)化處理記為 LP。 凈出口由于現(xiàn)有數(shù)據(jù)僅為出口額、進(jìn)口額，故想減得到凈出口值，并乘以當(dāng)月匯率轉(zhuǎn)化成人民幣計(jì)量。此外為了平滑凈出口的變動(dòng)趨勢，對 X同樣也做對數(shù)化處理記為 LX。由于CPI為相對數(shù)，為了減少基期的影響以及減少異方差性，對 CPI進(jìn)行對數(shù)化處理記為 LC。4.2 單位根檢驗(yàn)觀察LC、LX、LP的圖形，如下所示：LC4.704.684.664.644.624.604.5899 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14圖4.1 LC的曲線圖精彩文檔實(shí)用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)文案LP11.211.010.810.610.410.210.09.899000102030405060708091011121314圖4.2LP的曲線圖LX201918171615141399 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14圖4.3LX的曲線圖對三個(gè)變量選取相應(yīng)的形式進(jìn)行單位根檢驗(yàn) .表4.1 各變量單位根檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果水平值檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果 一階差分檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果變量檢驗(yàn)形式 ADF P 檢驗(yàn)形式 ADF PLC （C，0，12） -2.401563 0.1428 （0，0，11） -6.047044 0.0000精彩文檔實(shí)用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)文案LP（C，T，12）-2.3274470.4166（0，0，11）-3.6182010.0004LX（C，0，1）-2.7725980.0645（C，0，0）-20.984160.0000綜上，三個(gè)變量在 5%的顯著水平上都不平穩(wěn)， 但一階差分平穩(wěn)，因此三個(gè)序列都為一階單整過程。4.3協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)由于變量LP存在截距和趨勢，因此選擇第二類形式，且變量無明顯的時(shí)間特征，因此選擇第三種形式作為協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)形式。根據(jù)信息準(zhǔn)則以及殘差進(jìn)行滯后階數(shù)的確定，當(dāng)滯后階數(shù)為 1時(shí)，AIC=-7.137759,SC=-6.790499; 當(dāng)滯后階數(shù)為2時(shí)，AIC=-7.538003,SC=-6.930299; 當(dāng)滯后階數(shù)為3時(shí)，AIC=-7.679420,SC=-6.811272 。故此處選擇滯后二階為最優(yōu)滯后階數(shù)。選擇滯后階數(shù)為 2，且第三種形式進(jìn)行協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)，檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果如下：表4.2 協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果Date:12/10/14 Time:22:06Sample(adjusted):1999M042014M10Includedobservations:154afteradjustmentsTrendassumption:LineardeterministictrendSeries:LOPLXLCLagsinterval(infirstdifferences):1to2UnrestrictedCointegrationRankTest(Trace)HypothesizedTrace0.05No.ofCE(s)EigenvalueStatisticCriticalValueProb.**None*0.15105633.1684229.797070.0197Atmost10.0501787.94898215.494710.4709Atmost20.0001360.0210073.8414660.8847Tracetestindicates1cointegratingeqn(s)atthe0.05leveldenotesrejectionofthehypothesisatthe0.05level**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis(1999)p-valuesUnrestrictedCointegrationRankTest(MaximumEigenvalue)Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05No.ofCE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic CriticalValue Prob.**精彩文檔實(shí)用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)文案None*0.15105625.2194321.131620.0125Atmost10.0501787.92797514.264600.3861Atmost20.0001360.0210073.8414660.8847Max-eigenvaluetestindicates1cointegratingeqn(s)atthe0.05leveldenotesrejectionofthehypothesisatthe0.05level**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis(1999)p-valuesUnrestrictedCointegratingCoefficients(normalizedbyb'*S11*b=I):LOPLXLC3.411003-1.86888620.027881.723127-0.200519-46.265743.324745-0.2939120.064617UnrestrictedAdjustmentCoefficients(alpha):D(LOP)-0.0146380.0020270.000749D(LX)0.1916330.0132010.001944D(LC)3.22E-050.001393-3.99E-061CointegratingEquation(s): Loglikelihood 642.0482Normalizedcointegratingcoefficients(standarderrorinparentheses)LOP LX LC1.000000 -0.547899 5.871551(0.06584) (2.89701)Adjustmentcoefficients(standarderrorinparentheses)D(LOP) -0.049930(0.02075)D(LX) 0.653660(0.13759)D(LC) 0.000110(0.00176)2CointegratingEquation(s): Loglikelihood 646.0122Normalizedcointegratingcoefficients(standarderrorinparentheses)LOP LX LC1.000000 0.000000 -35.67378(11.2063)0.000000 1.000000 -75.82659精彩文檔實(shí)用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)文案(21.1778)Adjustmentcoefficients(standarderrorinparentheses)D(LOP)-0.0464370.026950(0.02324)(0.01143)D(LX)0.676407-0.360787(0.15410)(0.07579)D(LC)0.002510-0.000339(0.00192)(0.00094)由上表可知，跡檢驗(yàn)和極大特征值檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果均顯示存在一個(gè)協(xié)整關(guān)系。協(xié)整序列的圖形和單位根檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果如下：.3.2.1.0-.1-.299 00 01 02 03 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14Cointegratingrelation1圖4.4 協(xié)整序列變動(dòng)圖表4.3 協(xié)整序列的單位根檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果NullHypothesis:COINTEQ01hasaunitrootExogenous:NoneLagLength:1(Automatic-basedonSIC,maxlag=13)t-StatisticProb.*AugmentedDickey-Fullerteststatistic-5.0208250.0000Testcriticalvalues:1%level-2.5818275%level-1.94315710%level-1.615178精彩文檔實(shí)用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)文案*MacKinnon(1996)one-sidedp-values.由上表可知，該協(xié)整序列是平穩(wěn)的，即各變量之間存在協(xié)整關(guān)系。該協(xié)整方程具體為：LC =0.17LP-0.09LX+ εtLP與LC呈現(xiàn)正向波動(dòng)，LX與LP及LX與LC呈現(xiàn)負(fù)向波動(dòng)，即房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格與物價(jià)指數(shù)是正相關(guān)關(guān)系，凈出口與房價(jià)呈現(xiàn)負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系，凈出口與國內(nèi)物價(jià)水平呈現(xiàn)負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系，符合一般的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論，故該協(xié)整方程較為合理。4.3VECM 模型的估計(jì)估計(jì)結(jié)果如下：表4.4VECM模型的估計(jì)結(jié)果VectorErrorCorrectionEstimatesDate:12/10/14 Time:22:44Sample(adjusted):1999M042014M10Includedobservations:154afteradjustmentsStandarderrorsin()&t-statisticsin[]CointegratingEq:CointEq1LC(-1)1.000000LP(-1)0.170313(0.04957)[3.43554]LX(-1)-0.093314(0.01781)[-5.23803]C-4.731936ErrorCorrection:D(LC)D(LP)D(LX)CointEq10.000645-0.2931653.837997(0.01032)(0.12185)(0.80788)[0.06244][-2.40604][4.75072]D(LC(-1))0.1380640.168840-12.33234(0.08462)(0.99882)(6.62253)精彩文檔實(shí)用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)文案[1.63161][0.16904][-1.86218]D(LC(-2))0.0677240.101383-2.543282(0.08694)(1.02626)(6.80446)[0.77895][0.09879][-0.37377]D(LP(-1))0.008339-0.579548-1.657204(0.00650)(0.07675)(0.50886)[1.28251][-7.55145][-3.25673]D(LP(-2))0.000560-0.450241-0.344358(0.00699)(0.08251)(0.54704)[0.08012][-5.45705][-0.62949]D(LX(-1))0.000146-0.027722-0.266886(0.00107)(0.01265)(0.08387)[0.13653][-2.19159][-3.18223]D(LX(-2))0.000433-0.0243870.011625(0.00077)(0.00906)(0.06010)[0.56372][-2.69065][0.19344]C4.96E-050.0161370.036033(0.00053)(0.00621)(0.04116)[0.09438][2.59957][0.87546]R-squared0.0416690.3520280.352984Adj.R-squared-0.0042780.3209610.321963Sumsq.resids0.0059730.83219436.58429S.E.equation0.0063960.0754980.500577F-statistic0.90688611.3312111.37876Loglikelihood563.6108183.4729-107.8418AkaikeAIC-7.215725-2.2788691.504439SchwarzSC-7.057961-2.1211051.662203Meandependent0.0001210.0092930.023850S.D.dependent0.0063820.0916200.607917Determinantresidcovariance(dofadj.)5.63E-08Determinantresidcovariance4.80E-08Loglikelihood642.0482Akaikeinformationcriterion-7.987639Schwarzcriterion-7.4551864.4VECM 模型的檢驗(yàn)下面進(jìn)行殘差的自相關(guān)性的檢驗(yàn)，檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果如下：精彩文檔實(shí)用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)文案Autocorrelationswith2Std.Err.BoundsCor(LC,LC(-i))Cor(LC,LP(-i))Cor(LC,LX(-i)).2.2.2.1.1.1.0.0.0-.1-.1-.1-.2-.2-.2123456789101234567891012345678910Cor(LP,LC(-i))Cor(LP,LP(-i))Cor(LP,LX(-i)).2.2.2.1.1.1.0.0.0-.1-.1-.1-.2-.2-.2123456789101234567891012345678910Cor(LX,LC(-i))Cor(LX,LP(-i))Cor(LX,LX(-i)).2.2.2.1.1.1.0.0.0-.1-.1-.1-.2-.2-.2123456789101234567891012345678910圖4.5 VECM模型各方程殘差項(xiàng)的自相關(guān)圖觀察殘差自身的自相關(guān)圖，可以看出均不存在自相關(guān)性。4.5VECM 模型的預(yù)測精彩文檔9.6實(shí)用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)文案LC4.70204.68184.664.64 164.62144.604.581220002002200420062008201020122014ActualLC(Baseline)LP11.611.210.810.410.09.620002002200420062008201020122014ActualLP(Baseline)

20002002200420062008201020122014ActualLP(Baseline)LX20002002200420062008201020122014ActualLX(Baseline)LX由上圖可以看出 VECM基本可以擬合出原序列變動(dòng)趨勢。20184.6 施16加約束條件后的 VECM模型VECM14模型的方程形式如下：EstimationProc:12===============================20082010201220142000200220042006EC(C,1)12LCLPLXActualLX(Baseline)VARModel:===============================D(LC)=A(1,1)*(B(1,1)*LC(-1)+B(1,2)*LP(-1)+B(1,3)*LX(-1)+B(1,4))+C(1,1)*D(LC(-1))+C(1,2)*D(LC(-2))+C(1,3)*D(LP(-1))+C(1,4)*D(LP(-2))+C(1,5)*D(LX(-1))+C(1,6)*D(LX(-2))+C(1,7)精彩文檔實(shí)用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)文案D(LP)=A(2,1)*(B(1,1)*LC(-1)+B(1,2)*LP(-1)+B(1,3)*LX(-1)+B(1,4))+C(2,1)*D(LC(-1))+C(2,2)*D(LC(-2))+C(2,3)*D(LP(-1))+C(2,4)*D(LP(-2))+C(2,5)*D(LX(-1))+C(2,6)*D(LX(-2))+C(2,7)D(LX)=A(3,1)*(B(1,1)*LC(-1)+B(1,2)*LP(-1)+B(1,3)*LX(-1)+B(1,4))+C(3,1)*D(LC(-1))+C(3,2)*D(LC(-2))+C(3,3)*D(LP(-1))+C(3,4)*D(LP(-2))+C(3,5)*D(LX(-1))+C(3,6)*D(LX(-2))+C(3,7)VARModel-SubstitutedCoefficients:===============================4.96362755959e-05D(LP)= 12.3323449379*D(LC(-1))-2.54328177133*D(LC(-2))-1.65720417582*D(LP(-1))-0.344357605774*D(LP(-2))-由于協(xié)整方程中各變量都較為顯著，故此處不加以估計(jì)施加約束條件的 VECM。第五部分 模型應(yīng)用5.1脈沖響應(yīng)下圖是基于三變量的 VECM模型模擬出來的脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)，橫軸表示滯后階數(shù)，由于房地長行業(yè)的經(jīng)營周期較長，故將滯后階數(shù)設(shè)定為 60；縱軸表示變量之間的響應(yīng)程度，圖中實(shí)線部分為計(jì)算值。精彩文檔-.0251015202530354045505560實(shí)用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)文案LCLPLXResponseofLCtoCholeskyResponseofLXtoCholeskyOneS.D.InnovationsOneS.D.Innovations.6.010.008.4.006.2.004.0.002.000-.25101520253035404550556051015202530354045505560LCLPLXLCLPLXResponseofLPtoCholeskyOneS.D.Innovations.08.06.04.02.00-.0251015202530354045505560LCLPLX圖Response5.1of脈LX沖響to應(yīng)Cholesky圖OneS.D.Innovations.65.2方差分解.4.2.0-.251015202530354045505560LCLPLX精彩文檔實(shí)用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)文案Variance Decomposition ofLC1008060402005 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60LC LP LXVariance Decomposition ofLP1008060402005 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60LC LP LXVariance Decomposition ofLX100806040第六部分 結(jié)論20根據(jù)以上結(jié)果，我們可以得到以下結(jié)論：0510152025303540455055601.CPI、凈出口都是屬于一階單整序列，我國商品房的銷售價(jià)格與前期的銷售價(jià)格相關(guān)，我國的LC LP LX這符合現(xiàn)實(shí)，在經(jīng)濟(jì)的運(yùn)行過程中，存在廣泛的時(shí)間滯后效應(yīng)。2. 房地產(chǎn)市場雖然在很大程度上影響了我國的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)， 但商品房作為一種投資品， 對居民消費(fèi)精彩文檔實(shí)用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)文案影響較小，近期房價(jià)的頻繁波動(dòng)并未對我國居民的生活水平產(chǎn)生較大的影響。由以上結(jié)論可以看出，我國應(yīng)調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)，減少對房地產(chǎn)市場的依賴程度，特別是減少地方政府的土地財(cái)政的現(xiàn)象。出臺(tái)連續(xù)的穩(wěn)定的政策以調(diào)整房地產(chǎn)市場，減少市場的波動(dòng)，穩(wěn)定消費(fèi)者的預(yù)期，從而使經(jīng)濟(jì)得到穩(wěn)定長遠(yuǎn)的發(fā)展。附錄原始數(shù)據(jù)房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)企業(yè)居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)商品房銷售面積_房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)企業(yè)商(上年同月=100)_指標(biāo)累計(jì)品房銷售額_累計(jì)當(dāng)月出口額_當(dāng)月進(jìn)口額_當(dāng)月地區(qū)全國全國全國全國全國頻度月月月月月單位萬平方米億元-千美元千美元1999-0198.81139260799033271999-02415.0589.8498.71100005387222421999-031025.73207.898.214877936143780271999-041586.54319.597.814804183138374051999-052146.09440.8397.815531943136572171999-062979.41610.6497.915398063145229551999-073633.96745.0398.617338664139214011999-084287.35871.9298.718325337134464701999-095102.31042.1799.218576263152679991999-106061.591239.9999.418231917137927561999-117062.39144599.119476625169086281999-1213379.352745.549920238657174223922000-0199.816797277152583932000-02636.1144.39100.714775380134286092000-031391.55295.9799.820146482178135792000-042153.93450.3199.720500392183607952000-052958.13623.65100.120105176169664292000-064073.18844.93100.522192970203014022000-075014.831032.55100.521478509194916282000-086006.881244.7100.323329185207877402000-097088.731460.7410022973290207150342000-108248.81691.7410022799974189164012000-119553.261997.91101.32215488121640881精彩文檔實(shí)用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)文案2000-1216984.143572101.521986149214142502001-01101.216926471155450072001-02877.96222.4610019198624182256172001-031828.72440.65100.823139003207725262001-042800.78653.78101.622792181218592802001-053795.05898.84101.720813507188087662001-065126.571181.16101.422081032212515372001-076365.291453.88101.522887692209555002001-087603.851721.1310123540123221615352001-098977.271998.2799.923989367218505982001-1010168.942259.39100.222790526189018092001-1111617.552578.1799.724000007208447712001-1220779.244625.7299.724502579223901052002-019921703291189704172002-02923.75222.8610019137164159184522002-032152.66514.0399.223817766224841452002-043379.57779.7498.726723688257517112002-054564.61045.4998.924644182224331122002-066279.851445.1799.226012762230941422002-077689.71779.9899.129209981269876552002-089300.172157.0399.329437423272049142002-0911129.092635.499.331910755297941392002-1012975.93058.8499.229946376251970372002-1115079.363535.8499.331209190287345982002-1224969.295721.2299.631889489287325822003-01100.429775788310159692003-021560.38392.42100.224455585237796572003-033125.42784.69100.932091277325491242003-044632.511147.4310135617074346012082003-056333.161549.95100.733842228316041482003-068672.352101.77100.334475859323361762003-0710657.132574.92100.538109608365136662003-0812628.73058.14100.937415036346213672003-0915189.243736.43101.141940698416523362003-1017447.894309.46101.840925906351925022003-1119950.24898.8610341761968368932862003-1232247.247670.9103.248061529423361762004-01103.235712196357366022004-022221.51578.78102.134157738420297442004-034271.161143.3410345847915463878432004-046200.71641.54103.847124115493741852004-058310.092250.27104.444867889427650262004-0611009.882973.541055049634448652663精彩文檔實(shí)用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)文案2004-0713426.583657.49105.351003919489722952004-0815595.974287.05105.351400194469105962004-0918201.775053.88105.255803041508109162004-1020681.635703.89104.352523879454335742004-1123725.516545.73102.860925461510297012004-1238231.6410375.71102.463784483527080302005-01101.950755189442611562005-022596.45807.37103.944273164399162222005-035172.671559.33102.760869119551361122005-047194.272141.72101.862151250575601742005-059484.832796.38101.858426919494385352005-0612536.353727.28101.665959601562819782005-0716526.924938.28101.865584266550385202005-0831202.4710027.37101.368399603578066882005-0934725.611313.3100.970185509626231242005-1039352.1912925.89101.268092010560760192005-1143388.2314430.14101.372217762616872162005-1255769.1418080.3101.675412367643960232006-01101.964988815554968282006-025343.891881.93100.954108294516837182006-039458.713192.7100.878045837668571322006-0413560.874615.35101.276948177664913552006-0518136.966270.04101.473113881601097302006-0622976.627957.48101.581311219668083002006-0727307.989440.0810180337153657135142006-0831384.5910870.72101.390766001719698972006-0935883.3712415.34101.591629488763424742006-1040780.6714053.17101.488127371642975172006-1146113.9316141.36101.995854497729264882006-1260628.1420509.68102.894094055730967502007-01102.286619731707391992007-025371.472247.9102.782095593583393612007-0310600.774050.75103.383424155765527152007-0415765.165997.3210397449955806042082007-05211488059.75103.494065041715908212007-0627904.1510642.83104.4103268286763582172007-0734137.2413142.44105.6107744104833871892007-0840572.8115820.34106.5111354781863807042007-0947369.7118684.77106.2112373049885672062007-1053564.9621286.95106.5107723989806733332007-1160156.8924002.64106.9117620807913395572007-1276192.729603.87106.5114415986917289812008-01107.110964003090174447精彩文檔實(shí)用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)文案2008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