平安銀行(000001)利潤(rùn)高增資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量穩(wěn)-廣發(fā)證券倪軍,屈俊,伍嘉慧-20230117

發(fā)現(xiàn)價(jià)值免責(zé)聲明發(fā)現(xiàn)價(jià)值平平安銀行(000001.SZ)資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量穩(wěn)定核心觀點(diǎn)：形成支撐。?Q4單季資產(chǎn)擴(kuò)表以非信貸為主，預(yù)計(jì)息差繼續(xù)小幅收斂。資產(chǎn)端，QQ有公司前三季度貸款核銷(xiāo)規(guī)模已超去年全年，預(yù)計(jì)Q4核銷(xiāo)力度依舊不未來(lái)隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)回暖，零售需求修復(fù)，集團(tuán)賦能優(yōu)勢(shì)持續(xù)發(fā)力，長(zhǎng)期配理價(jià)值告日期相對(duì)市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)3-01-1701/2203/2205/2207/2201/2203/2205/2207/2209/2211/2201/23-27%-35% 平安銀行滬深300倪軍倪軍03646omSFCCENoBLZ4388286915ungfcom嘉慧wujiahuigfcomcn請(qǐng)注意，倪軍,伍嘉慧并非香港證券及期貨事務(wù)監(jiān)察委員會(huì)的注冊(cè)持牌人，不可在香港從事受監(jiān)管活動(dòng)。平安銀行(000001.SZ):息，資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量穩(wěn)定平安銀行(000001.SZ):負(fù)，資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量穩(wěn)定平安銀行(000001.SZ):息信用成本繼續(xù)回落22-10-252022-08-1822-04-26文雪enxueyang@價(jià)值價(jià)值 價(jià)值價(jià)值表索引 價(jià)值價(jià)值平安銀行發(fā)布2022年度業(yè)績(jī)快報(bào)，我們點(diǎn)評(píng)如下：全年?duì)I收、歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比分別季度營(yíng)收、歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比分別增長(zhǎng)-1.3%、23.0%，增速較22Q3單季度分別下滑續(xù)下行對(duì)業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鲩L(zhǎng)形成支撐。比和環(huán)比分別多增580億元、400億元。貸款同比增長(zhǎng)8.7%，增速較22Q3末下行債成本率較年初下行6bp，券，存款成本率小幅上行。Q4資金利率上行，平安Q同業(yè)存單規(guī)模較Q3末下行613億元，預(yù)計(jì)負(fù)債成本偏離度為83%，同比下降2pct，不良認(rèn)定保持高標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。2022末，撥備覆蓋率提升至-款率(%)1.681.681.651.651.65價(jià)值價(jià)值撥備覆蓋率(%)8.42289.10290.06290.27290.2835932916405335-產(chǎn)收益率13.0813.0812.3611.3011.0810.8510.349.58價(jià)值價(jià)值%8%%8%.20%16.78%15.48%.20%16.78%15.48%8.71%00%%同比增速0%0%%0%同比增速2%3%24.83%25.71%24.36%2%3%24.83%0%價(jià)值價(jià)值26.83%25.62%25.82%25.26%1%%0%0%26.83%25.62%25.82%25.26%1%%0%0%14.28%14.10%%利潤(rùn)同比增速0%0%%0%0%5%速0%1%5.00%2019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q4價(jià)值價(jià)值.83%8%0%%86%3%.83%8%0%%86%3%總額同比增速.00%0%0%0%0%0%季度額同比增速42.49%42.81%3%25.71%26.88%3%22.52%22.54%17.48%%4%2019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q4母凈利潤(rùn)同比增速.00%0%0%0%0%0%增速45.24%42.76%2019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q4價(jià)值價(jià)值0%8.00%6.00%4.00%%11.92%0%0%貸款總額同比增速20.49%20.17%19.14% 14.77%14.61%15.23%14.90%13.68%13.53%12.61%11.92%12.18%10.84%價(jià)值價(jià)值65.5%65.4%65.5%65.4%00%%存款總額同比增速11.29%11.85%11.04%11.29%7.33%6.74%6.10%款占資產(chǎn)比重、存款占負(fù)債比重存貸款占比貸款/總資產(chǎn)存款/總負(fù)債7.8%7.8%2.6%2.6%62.2%60.8%60.9%6價(jià)值價(jià)值二、盈利預(yù)測(cè)和投資建議預(yù)測(cè)：好，表1：平安銀行關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)假設(shè)E速存款增速產(chǎn)增速息負(fù)債增速收益率產(chǎn)收益率89%64%56%73%80%存款付息率%%%%計(jì)息負(fù)債付息率%%%%%M%%%%%收入增速7%0%撥備支出/平均貸款%%%%%價(jià)值價(jià)值表2：平安銀行可比同業(yè)估值(截至2023年1月17日)碼銀行名稱(百萬(wàn)元)(元)PB(倍)歸母凈利潤(rùn)(百萬(wàn)元)E6.SH-30.47銀行-308.SH-30,407,041,687d-恢復(fù)背景下配置價(jià)質(zhì)凸顯，我們給予公司23年P(guān)B估值1.2X，合理價(jià)值25.66元/股，入”評(píng)級(jí)。三、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示下滑，疫情變化和外部環(huán)境存在諸多不確定性，可能導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)價(jià)值價(jià)值(3)國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)及金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)超預(yù)期，當(dāng)前國(guó)外局勢(shì)較為復(fù)雜，可能帶來(lái)超預(yù)期金融風(fēng)(4)政策調(diào)控力度超預(yù)期，利率大幅波動(dòng)，導(dǎo)致流動(dòng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)超預(yù)期上升。價(jià)值價(jià)值2020A2021A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024E利潤(rùn)表凈利息收入113,470120,336128,623149,869170,378利息收入201,007213,536228,831259,061290,928利息支出87,53793,200100,208109,192120,550凈手續(xù)費(fèi)收入29,66133,06229,75635,11240,379凈其他非息收入10,41115,98521,58022,65926,058營(yíng)業(yè)收入153,542169,383179,959207,639236,814營(yíng)業(yè)支出116,633123,398122,414138,358153,725稅金及附加1,5251,6442,0682,3782,700業(yè)務(wù)及管理費(fèi)44,69047,93747,59954,81762,519營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)36,90945,98557,54569,28283,089營(yíng)業(yè)外凈收入-95-95撥備前利潤(rùn)107,172119,696130,101150,349171,499資產(chǎn)減值損失70,41873,81772,74781,16288,506利潤(rùn)總額36,75445,87957,35469,18782,993所得稅7,8269,54311,81514,25217,097凈利潤(rùn)28,92836,33645,53954,93465,897歸母凈利潤(rùn)28,92836,33645,53954,93465,897資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表貸款總額2,666,2973,063,4483,329,0493,728,5354,138,674貸款減值準(zhǔn)備63,21990,203108,840142,662185,973貸款凈額2,610,8412,984,7533,220,2093,585,8733,952,700投資類資產(chǎn)1,143,6111,282,8891,347,0331,454,7961,571,180存放央行283,982312,033317,765386,335421,105同業(yè)資產(chǎn)272,484179,076196,984204,863213,057其他資產(chǎn)157,596162,629213,598234,490254,458生息資產(chǎn)4,366,3744,837,4465,190,8315,774,5296,344,016資產(chǎn)合計(jì)4,468,5144,921,3805,339,9545,862,2416,361,447存款2,695,9352,990,5183,344,8943,679,3844,010,528向央行借款124,587148,162163,520163,520163,520同業(yè)負(fù)債545,871425,228416,723458,396481,316發(fā)行債券611,865823,934782,737861,011929,892計(jì)息負(fù)債3,978,2584,387,8424,707,8755,162,3115,585,256負(fù)債合計(jì)4,104,3834,525,9324,904,0375,377,4075,817,975股東權(quán)益合計(jì)364,131395,448435,917484,834543,473資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量不良貸款余額31,38531,27835,06737,66240,938不良貸款率1.02%1.05%1.01%0.99%不良凈生成率2.40%1.80%1.89%1.50%1.30%撥備覆蓋率201%288%284%296%302%撥貸比237%294%299%299%299%流動(dòng)性存貸比98.90%102.44%99.53%101.34%103.20%貸款/總資產(chǎn)59.67%62.25%62.34%63.60%65.06%投資類資產(chǎn)/總資產(chǎn)25.59%26.07%25.23%24.82%24.70%同業(yè)資產(chǎn)/總資產(chǎn)610%364%369%349%335%2020A2021A2022E2023E2024E價(jià)值評(píng)估(倍)P/EP/BP/PPOP10.770.992.738.720.902.446.850.802.255.620.711.954.640.621.71每股指標(biāo)EPS1.391.732.202.683.25BVPS15.1616.7718.8621.3824.40PPOPPS5.526.176.707.758.84DPS90.350.43股息支付率1299%1321%1321%1321%1321%股息收益率1.51%1.93%2.35%2.85%驅(qū)動(dòng)性因素貸款增長(zhǎng)14.8%14.9%8.7%12.0%11.0%存款增長(zhǎng)9.6%10.9%11.9%10.0%9.0%生息資產(chǎn)增長(zhǎng)134%108%73%112%99%計(jì)息負(fù)債增長(zhǎng)13.0%10.3%7.3%9.7%8.2%平均貸款收益率6.32%5.96%5.88%6.20%平均生息資產(chǎn)收益率4.89%4.64%4.56%4.73%4.80%平均存款付息率2.01%2.08%2.08%2.07%平均計(jì)息負(fù)債付息率233%223%220%221%224%凈息差(NIM)-測(cè)算值2.76%2.61%2.57%2.73%2.81%凈利差(NIS)-測(cè)算值2.56%2.4