國際市場營銷課件-國際貿易的動態(tài)環(huán)境

TheDynamicEnvironmentofInternationalTrade國際貿易的動態(tài)環(huán)境Topic#5Chapter#2TheTwentiethtotheTwenty–FirstCentury20世紀到21世紀ThefirsthalfofTheTwentiethCenturywasmarredbytwomajorglobalconflicts,andTheGreatDepression.20世紀的前半葉兩次世界大戰(zhàn)和經濟大蕭條損毀

WorldWar1–1914to1918第一次世界大戰(zhàn)1914-1918TheGreatDepression–1929to1939大蕭條時期1929-1939WorldWar2–1939to1945第二次世界大戰(zhàn)1939-1945TheMarshallPlan馬歇爾計劃TheMarshallplan;WasaplanaimedattherebuildingofEuropeandJapanaftertheirdestructionduringtheSecondWorldWar.馬歇爾計劃:計劃的目的是重建在二戰(zhàn)中摧毀的歐洲和日本AgencyofInternationalDevelopment;wasanorganizationcreatedafterWW2wheremembercountriescouldinvestfundstohelpfostereconomicdevelopmentinunderdevelopedcountriesinordertocreateastrongerworldeconomy.國際開發(fā)總署:二戰(zhàn)后成立的組織,為了更強大的全球經濟,成員國可以在不發(fā)達國家投資促進經濟發(fā)展Thebenefitsflowedbothways,sinceforeverydollardevelopedcountriesinvestedinunderdevelopedcountries,theyreceivedhundredsofdollarsinreturnoninvestedcapitalintheformofmanufacturedgoods,agriculturalgoods,etc.SincetheNorthAmericaneconomiesandinfrastructureshadnotbeenravagedbythewar,theywerethemainbenefactorsofthepostwareconomicresurgence.TheUnitedStatesandCanadabecamerichcountries!!!利益有兩方面,發(fā)達國家的每一美元投資都投入到不發(fā)達國家,以工業(yè)品,農產品為形式作為投入資本的回報.因為北美國家的經濟和基礎設施沒在戰(zhàn)爭中破壞,他們是戰(zhàn)后經濟復蘇的主要資助者,美國和加拿大聚斂財富GATT關稅和貿易總協(xié)定GATT(GeneralAgreementofTariffsandTrade);In1947GATTwasratifiedby23membernations.Theirgoalwastolimittradebarriersandincreaseglobaltradeamongnations.關稅和貿易總協(xié)定:1947年23個國家批準了GATT,他們的目標是降低貿易壁壘和增加全球貿易Duringtheworldwarstradeamongstwarringnationshadallbutstopped,andintheperiodbetweenthewarstherewasanatmosphereofprotectionism.Thisleadtotariffsashighas60%onmanyproductstolimittrade,andisoneofthecausesofTheGreatDepression!Afterthewarsworldleaderssoughtcooperationandtrade!!!戰(zhàn)爭期間,交戰(zhàn)國的貿易停止了,貿易保護主義盛行,許多產品的關稅高達60%,這限制了貿易,這也是導致經濟大蕭條的原因之一,戰(zhàn)后世界的領導者尋求合作和貿易TradeInvestmentMeasures(TRIMS);Establishedthebasicprinciplethatinvestmentrestrictionscanbemajortradebarriers.貿易投資措施:建立的投資限制的基本原則可能會成為主要的貿易壁壘TheWorldTradeOrganization

世界貿易組織TheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO);Wascreatedin1994asaninstitutiontodealwith,andeliminatetradedisputesamongstthe132membercountries.世貿:1994成立的機構旨在處理和消除132個成員國之間的貿易爭端TheUruguayRound;GATTbecamepartofWTOandthenumberofnationsseekingglobalbarrierfreetradeincreasedto117nations.烏拉圭會談:關稅和貿易總協(xié)定成為世貿的一部分,更多的國家尋求全球的自由貿易,成員國增至117個SkirtingtheSpiritofGATTandWTO回避關貿協(xié)定和世貿精神TheWTOhasbeentryingtosethealthandsafetystandardsandworkplacerightsacrossallmembernations.Theyalsotrytoenforcepatentandtrademarkprotection,howevermanydevelopingnationsareslowtocomply.世貿努力在成員國中建立安全的標準,他們也實施專利和商標保護,然而許多發(fā)展中國家推行的很慢Thereisalsodifferentlevelsofinstitutionalisedcorruptionandinfluencewithindifferentmembernationsthatcreateproblemsforbusinessesandcountriesinvolvedintrade.不同成員國的不同程度的制度化的腐敗和影響使商業(yè)和國家的貿易產生了問題TheInternationalMonetaryFund國際貨幣基金組織TheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF);WasformedafterWW2tostabiliseforeignexchangeratesandtheestablishmentoffreelyconvertiblecurrenciestofacilitatetheexpansionandbalancedgrowthofinternationaltrade.(181membercountries)國際貨幣基金組織:二戰(zhàn)后成立,致力于穩(wěn)定貨幣匯率和建立自由兌換貨幣促進擴張,平衡國際貿易的增長（181個成員國）TheWorldBank世界銀行TheWorldBank;Isaninstitutionthathasasit`sgoalthereductionofpovertyandtheimprovementoflivingstandardsbypromotingsustainablegrowthandinvestmentinpeople.世界銀行:這一機構的目標在于減少貧困,提高生活質量,促進可持續(xù)增長和投資TherearefiveinstitutionswithinTheWorldBankprovidingserviceforpooranddevelopingcountries.世界銀行中有五個體系為貧窮和發(fā)展中國家提供服務ServicesProvidedbyTheWorldBank世界銀行提供的服務1.Lendingmoneytotheeconomiesofdevelopingcountriestofinancedevelopmentprojectsineducation,health,andinfrastructure.為發(fā)展中國家提供貸款支持教育,醫(yī)療,基礎設施的建設2.Providingassistancetogovernmentsfordevelopmentalprojectstothepoorestdevelopingcountries,(percapitaincomeof$925).為最貧窮國家的政府的發(fā)展項目提供援助(平均每人每年925美元)3.lendingdirectlytotheprivatesectortohelpstrengthenprivatebusinesssectorindevelopingeconomies.在發(fā)展中國家直接對私營部門投資增強私營企業(yè)4.Providinginvestorswithinvestmentguaranteesagainstnoncommercialriskfactors.為投資者提供投資保證防止商業(yè)風險5.increaseinvestmentflowbyprovidingconciliationandarbitrationservicestosortdisputesbetweengovernmentsandinvestors.通過提供調解和仲裁政府與投資者之間的爭端的服務來增加投資ProtestsAgainstGlobalInstitutions反對全球化體系Anti-Globalists;Theyrebelagainsttheimplicationsofitsexistenceandvehementlychallengetheviewthatitisinevitableandnaturallyoccurring.反對全球化者:他們對抗存在的影響，激烈的挑戰(zhàn)不可避免的和必然發(fā)生的觀點Everytimeworldleadersgettogethertodiscusstheworldeconomyandinternationaltradethereareprotests.Somecanbecomeveryviolent!!!每次世界領導者聚在一起討論世界經濟和國際貿易都會有反對者,有的會變得很激烈InternationalTradeTheories國際貿易理論AdamSmithandAbsoluteAdvantage亞當·斯密和絕對優(yōu)勢DavidRicardoandComparativeAdvantage大衛(wèi)·李嘉圖和相對優(yōu)勢Heckscher–OhlinandFactorEndowments赫克舍·奧林和具備的生產要素CountrySimilarityTheory國家相似理論ProductLifeCycleTheory產品周期理論AdamSmithandAbsoluteAdvantage亞當·斯密和絕對優(yōu)勢Absoluteadvantage;Theadvantagethatexistswhenacountryhasamonopolyonproducingaspecificproductorisabletoproduceitmoreefficientlythanallothercountries.

絕對優(yōu)勢:一個國家在特定商品上壟斷或比其他國家生產效率更高的優(yōu)勢DavidRicardoandComparativeAdvantage大衛(wèi)·李嘉圖和相對優(yōu)勢ComparativeAdvantage;Thetheorythatstatesthatacountryshouldselltoothercountriesthoseproductsitproducesmosteffectivelyandefficiently,andbuyfromothercountriesthoseproductsitcannotproduceaseffectivelyorefficiently.

相對優(yōu)勢:這個理論表明一個國家應向其他國家銷售其能高效生產的商品,購買其不能高效生產的商品Heckscher–OhlinandFactorEndowments赫克舍·奧林和具備的生產要素FollowalongthelineofComparativeAdvantage,HeckscherandOhlinsuggestthatsomecountrieshavenaturaladvantages,knownasfactors.依照相對優(yōu)勢理論,赫克舍·奧林提出國家應該有自然優(yōu)勢如各種要素Thus;AcountrywillhaveaComparativeAdvantageinproductsthatrequireresourcesthatareabundantinthatcountry.因此,一個國家要在充足的自然資源生產的產品上有相對優(yōu)勢CountrySimilarityTheory國家相似理論Economist,SteffenLinder,in1960,suggestedthattradebetweencountriesformanufacturedgoodsdependedonthesimilaritiesinconsumerpreferences,productionconditions,andeconomicdevelopmentstage.Economicandsocialsimilarityincreasesleveloftradebetweencountries.經濟學家史蒂芬琳達1960年提出國家間商品的交換依靠相似的消費者選擇,生產環(huán)境,經濟發(fā)展階段,經濟和社會的相似能提升國家間貿易的階段ProductLifeCycleTheory產品周期理論RaymondVernon,IsverysimilartoTheProductLifeCycleTheory,butincludesthefactorsofglobalcompetitionandtrade.HesaysthatwithinthePLCtherearethreestagesofinternationalproductgrowth.Theyare;雷蒙德·弗農提出與產品周期理論相似的理論,但包括全球競爭和貿易的因素,他說在產品周期理論內國際產品增長有三個階段1.NewProductStage;Entrepreneurslaunchanewproductintheirhomemarket,wheretheyunderstandtheenvironment.新產品階段:企業(yè)家在國內市場推行新產品,他們了解市場環(huán)境2.MatureProductStage;Demandfortheproductexpandsfasterthensupplyascustomersaltertheirchoicesandadoptnewstyling.Asdemandmovesoffshoresodoesproduction!成熟產品階段:對產品的需求迅速增長,然后供給滿足消費者的不同選擇和采用新款式,產品的需求和生產到達國外3.StandardizedProductStage;Demandfortheproductstabilizes.Theinnovativefeaturesoftheproductnolongerexist.Productionmovestothelowestcostlocationsasdemanddrops.標準化產品階段:產品的需求穩(wěn)定,產品創(chuàng)新的特點不再存在,隨著需求下降,生產轉移到低成本地區(qū)NewProductStageStandardizedProductStageMatureProductStageDomesticMarketInternationalMarketTradeandInvestmentPatterns

貿易和投資模式Thelevelofglobaltradeisincreasingandhasbeenforanumberofyears.Ascountriescontinuetoworktogetheronglobalissuessuchaspopulation,resourcelimitations,globalwarming,andpoverty,cooperationandtradeareevermoreimportant.Tradecreateshealthyeconomiesforallthoseinvolved,andaspoorcountriesdevelop,anddevelopingcountriesbecomerich,theglobalmarketplacewillcontinuetogrow.全球貿易的增長已持續(xù)了很多年,隨著全球的國家一起解決人口增長,資源限制,全球變暖和貧困的問題,合作和貿易更加重要,貿易使參與者產生健康的經濟,隨著貧窮的國家發(fā)展,發(fā)展中國家變得富有,全球市場會繼續(xù)發(fā)展BRIC;DevelopingCountriesToWatch!!!金磚四國:受注視的發(fā)展中國家Brazil;200million巴西2億人口Russia;200million俄羅斯2億人口India;1.2billionpeople印度12億人口China;1.3billionpeople中國13億人口DevelopingCountriesToWatch!!!受注視的發(fā)展中國家BalanceofPayments收支平衡BalanceofPayments;Thesystemofaccountsthatrecordsanation’sinternationalfinancialtransactions.收支平衡:記錄一個國家的國際金融處理的賬目系統(tǒng)CurrentAccount;Arecordofallmerchandiseexports,imports,andservicesplusunilateraltransfersoffunds.現(xiàn)在的賬目:對所有商品的進出口,服務和單邊資金轉移的記錄CapitalAccount;Arecordofdirectinvestment,portfolioinvestment,andshorttermcapitalmovementstoandfromcountries.資本賬目:對直接投資,證券投資組合和國家短期投資的進出的記錄ReserveAccount;Arecordofimportsandexportsofgold,increasesordecreasesinforeignexchange,andincreasesordecreasesinliabilitiestoforeigncentralbanks.儲備金賬目:對黃金的進出口,外匯的增減,外國中央銀行負債的增減的記錄TradeBalance;Isareflectionofthedifferencebetweentotalexportsandtotalimports.貿易平衡:是總出口和總進口差異的反映CurrentAccountBalance;Isamorecompletepictureofthefinancialflowsintoandfromalocaleconomy.現(xiàn)在賬目平衡:是一個更完整的一個區(qū)域經濟財政的流量的進出的反映TradeSurplus;Afavourablebalanceoftrade;occurswhenthevalueofacountry’sexportsexceedsthatofitsimports.貿易順差:有利的貿易平衡,一國出口的貿易額超過進口TradeDeficit;Anunfavourablebalanceoftrade;occurswhenthevalueofacountry’simportsexceedsthatofitsexports.貿易逆差:不利的貿易平衡,一國進口的貿易額超過出口BalanceofPaymentsandForeignExchange收支平衡和外匯ExchangeRate;Referstothevalueofacurrencyinrelationtothevaluesofothercurrencies.匯率:本國貨幣價值與其他貨幣價值的關系PurchasingPowerParity(PPP);Thevalueofacountriescurrencyandthecostoflivinginthatcountry,comparedtothevalueofanothercurrencyinanothercountryandthecostoflivinginthatcountry.購買力同等:一國貨幣的價值與生活成本與另一國相比較FactorsAffectingTheExchangeRate影響匯率的因素FloatingExchangeRate;Thevalueofcurrencyissetbythelawsofsupplyanddemandforcurrencyontheinternationalexchangemarkets.變動的匯率在國際交換市場上貨幣的價值由對貨幣的需求決定Currencyvalueschangedailyandareeffectedbymanyfactorssuchasperceivedeconomichealthoracountry’seconomyincomparisontothatofothercountries,andinternationalevents.貨幣價值每日一變,受經濟安全感知或本國經濟與它國比較和國際事件因素的影響Protectionism貿易保護主義Protectionism;Theuseofgovernmentregulationstolimittheimportofgoodsandservices.貿易保護主義政府條例的使用限制商品和服務的進口

TradeBarriers;Arebarriersputinplacebygovernmentstorestrictorpreventinternationaltrade.貿易壁壘:政府設置壁壘限制或阻止國際貿易TradeBarriers貿易壁壘Tariff;Ataximposedonimports.關稅強加到進口上的稅Quota;Isaspecificunitordollarlimitappliedtoaparticulartypeofgood.限額:對特定商品限制交易量和交易額VoluntaryExportRestrictions;(VER)orOrderlyMarketAgreements;(OMA);areagreementsbetweenimportingandexportingcountriesforarestrictiononthevolumeofexports.自愿出口限制或有序市場協(xié)議:是進口和出口國對大量出口限制的協(xié)議Boycott;Isanabsoluterestrictionagainstthepurchaseandimportationofcertaingoodsfromothercountries.聯(lián)合抵制:是對從其它國家進口特定商品的絕對的限制Embargo;Isarefusaltoselltoaspecificcountry.禁止或限制貿易:拒絕和特定國家貿易MonetaryBarrier;Restrictionsonmoneyexchange.貨幣壁壘:對貨幣兌換的限制Standard;Standardsonproductsafetyandqualityandbusinessrules.標準:產品安全和質量的標準和商業(yè)準則AntidumpingPenalties;Limitsonimportsbasedonpredatorypricing,topreventdumping.反傾銷處罰:對掠奪性定價商品的限制,目的是防止傾銷ProtectionLogicandIllogic

保護主義的邏輯性和非邏輯性Therearecountlessreasonswhygovernmentstrytorestricttradebytheuseofprotectionistmeasures.Someoftheseargumentsarebasedonthefollowing;有無數(shù)的原因來說明為什么政府要使用貿易保護主義者的方法來限制貿易以下的,內容是一部分論證:

1.Protectionofaninfantindustry.對早期工業(yè)的保護

2.Protectionofthehomemarket.對國內市場的保護

3.Theneedtokeepmoneyatho