BCG+2022年化學(xué)品價值創(chuàng)造報告

ValueCreationinChemicals2022BuildingResilienceastheCrisisUnfoldsNovember2022ByAdamRothman,AndreasGocke,HubertSch?nberger,FrederikFlock,andHanZhoutBuildingResilienceastheCrisisrespects,butitwasastabletimeforchemicalcompanies.TheyilyincreasinggrowthintotalshareholderreturnTSRandinotherfundamentaleconomicmeasures.EvenduringtwoyearsmengorheBOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP1BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP3HowWeCalculateandReportTSRcalculateTSR.didshsTotalShareholderReturnIstheProductofMultipleFactorsedyieldSharechangeTotalshareholderreturnCash?owbutionCapitalgainsChangeinmultiplefSource:BCGanalysis.4BUILDINGRESILIENCEASTHECRISISUNFOLDSdustrytoianannualTSRto.1.1OverallTSRCashlOverallTSRCashlowefectsmultiple9.0venuevenueSources:S&PCapitalIQ;BCGanalysis.ndsharenumberchangeBecauseofroundingthesumofthebarltotalpercentageOfchemicalscompanieswithmarketvaluegreaterthanbillionin021,13areexcludedbecausedataforoneormorefinancialdriversisunavailable.oslyer6BUILDINGRESILIENCEASTHECRISISUNFOLDSAsianAsianSuccessStoriesthisaesChina’sRevenueGrowthStrategiesInGreaterChina,revenuegrowthhasaveraged17%peryear,drivenbythreespecificgrowthtrends.Thefirstisthedemandforfocusedchemicalsinmarketsinfluencedbydecarbonizationanddigitization.Makersofsemiconduc-tors,electronicvehicles,andbatterieshavebecomein-creasinglyimportantcustomersforAsianchemicalplayers.Forinstance,companiessuchasDongyue,ShidaShenghua,andHuayouCobalthaveexpandedtheirbusinessinmate-rialsforlithium-ionbatteries.ngeilIndia’sNewDomesticMarketsIndia,wherecompanieshavebenefitedfromahighlevelofinvestorconfidence,hasseenaconsistentriseinTSRfrom2017to2021.SomecountriesthatusedtorelyonChinesechemicalimportsareshiftingtoIndiaasapreferredsuppliernation.earetoFBOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP7Agrochemicalsandfertilizers22.58.4Basechemicalsandbasicplastics8.24.0917.3Focusedspecialties9.4Agrochemicalsandfertilizers22.58.4Basechemicalsandbasicplastics8.24.0917.3Focusedspecialties9.45GreaterChinaTSR(%)TotalmGreaterChinaTSR(%)TotalmarketTSR(%)Totalmarketcapitalization($billions)NortheastAsiaTSR(%)NorthAmericaTSR(%)EuropeTSR(%)SubsectormarketsTSR(%)10.516.7Industrialgases14.314.918.934517IndustrialgasesFive-yearTSR(%):>2010–200–10marketcapitalizationCirclesizemarketcapitalizationMultispecialty41.08Totalmarketcapitalization($billions)TotalTSR(%)3766Sources:S&PCapitalIQ;BCGanalysis.afromcompaniessubdividedasfollowsagrochemicalandfertilizercompaniesbasechemicalsandbasicplasticcompanies,148focused-specialtycompanies,8industrialgascompanies,and63multispecialtycompanies.SubsectorPerformancemessdll8BUILDINGRESILIENCEASTHECRISISUNFOLDSTheTopPerformers8765201220142016TheTopPerformers87652012201420162018202020132015201720192021gggndxhibitExhibit4-MultispecialtyKPIsCatchUpwithFocusedSpecialtiesCapexofrevenueEBITDAofrevenueReturnoncapitalemployed,Medianpercentages,2012to2021(%)432120122014201620182020201320152017201920212012201420162018202020132015201720192021201220142016201820202013201520172019202186MultispecialtyFocusedspecialtiesSources:Companyreports;S&PCapitalIQ;BCGanalysis.BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP9Thisyear,11ofthetop20companiesonourtwolistsarefocusedspecialtiesproducers.ExamplesincludeAlkylAminesChemicalsandBalajiAmines(amineproducers),ToyoGosei(photosensitivematerialsused,forexample,indisplaysandfilters);andEcoPro(airpollutioncontrolmaterials).Thenextmostprevalentsubsectorismulti-specialtycompaniessuchasDongyueGroupandPoscoChemtech.TheonlybasechemicalcompanyintheoverallgroupisDeepakNitrite,acompanywithamarketvalueofabout$4.5billion,locatedinIndia.Amonglarge-capcom-panies,basechemicalshavealargerpresence:threeen-trants,allheadquarteredinChina.ThisreflectsChina’songoingroleasaproviderofandmarketforstandardchemicals.Andwhileagrochemicalsandfertilizersad-vancedasagroup,onlyonecompanyfromthatsubsectormadethetopten:Chambal,inIndia.Therosteroftop-performingcompanieschangescontinu-ally,andthepastyearhasbeenespeciallyvolatile.Ofthetopperformersonthisyear’slist,onlytwo—LonzaandWanhua—wereonlastyear’slist.Shareholdervalueforsomeprevioushighscorersdeclinedduringthefirsthalfof2022,andmanyofthesearelikelytorebound.TheValueofTechnology-BasedBusinessModelsThebusinessmodelthatachemicalcompanyadoptsplaysamajorroleinitsTSRperformance.Companiesinthisindustrytendtodivideintofourbroadgroups,dependingonhowtheycreatevalueovertime:assetbased,marketbased,multiple,andtechnologybased.(SeeExhibit7.)Theoverallstrongestperformerofthefouristhetechnology-basedbusinessmodel.Companiesfollowingthismodelcompetethroughproprietaryofferingsandintellectualcapital.Thisgroupincludessomeprovidersofhigh-performancepolymers,enzymes,andcatalystsforindustrialprocesses,aswellassomeproducersofelec-tronicchemicalsusedinmanufacturingsemiconductors.Inmanyinstances,innovationslikethesearedifficulttoreverse-engineerorreproduce.Thesecompaniesthriveparticularlywellwhentheirofferingsaredistinctiveandfewothercompaniescansupplythem.Thetechnology-basedbusinessmodelseemstobechang-ingassustainabilityeffortstakehold.Asinnovationforalternativeenergy—particularlyhydrogenfuelandbatterytechnology—hasincreased,sohastheneedforcapitalinvestment,whichhasbeguntopayoffformanycompa-niesthathaverespondedactivelytotheneed.Exhibit5-Top-RankedLarge-CapChemicalCompaniesRankinaverage?ve-yearTSR,2017to2021RankSubsectorCompanyCouRankSubsectorCompanyFive-yearTSR(%)1PoscoChemtechSouthKorea Multispecialty2BachemSwitzerland Focusedspecialties3SRFIndia Multispecialty4EntegrisUS Focusedspecialties515GuangzhouTinciChina Base506WanhuaChina Base7ZhejiangHuayouCobaltChina Focusedspecialties428IMCDNetherlands Focusedspecialties389Switzerland Focusedspecialties10ZhejiangSatelliteChina BaseSources:S&PCapitalIQ;BCGanalysis.Note:“Large-cap”referstocompaniesthathaveamarketvalueofgreaterthan$8.5billion.“Base”=basechemicalsandbasicplastics.Entriesshowningreentyperankedinthetop10forTSRamongallchemicalcompaniesanalyzed.10BUILDINGRESILIENCEASTHECRISISUNFOLDSExhibit6-Top-RankedMid-CapChemicalCompaniesRankinaverage?ve-yearTSR,2017to2021RankSubsectorCompanyCouRankSubsectorCompanyFive-yearTSR(%)1AlkylAminesChemicalsIndia Focusedspecialties82DeepakNitriteIndia Base53ToyoGoseiJapan Focusedspecialties4EcoProSouthKorea Focusedspecialties685BalajiAminesIndia Focusedspecialties6DongyueGroupChina Multispecialty7NavinFluorineIndia Focusedspecialties8SKSHUPaintChina Focusedspecialties9VinatiOrganicsIndia Multispecialty10ChambalIndia AgrochemicalsandfertilizersSources:S&PCapitalIQ;BCGanalysis.Note:“Mid-cap”referstomarketvaluesfrom$1billionto$8.5billion.Entriesshowningreentyperankedinthetop10forTSRamongallchemicalcompaniesanalyzed.Themarket-basedbusinessmodelcallsforcompaniestofocusonsatisfyingcustomerrequirements,typicallyintheB2Bsphere.Theyrecognizethehighlevelofindustrialinnovationtakingplacerightnow,andtheyaccommodaterapidshiftsindemandbysynthesizingcompoundsuponrequestandsupportingapplicationsandparticularindus-tryneeds.Thisgrouphasexperiencedthemostconsistentincreaseinfive-yearTSR,movingfrom7%to12%overthreesuccessivereports.Whenthemarket-basedmodelrequiresinvestment,itisusuallytoimprovecustomerserviceortodevelopproductsandservicestailoredtospecificcustomerneeds.Theasset-basedbusinessmodelisalmostasstrongonTSResinthiscategoryfocustheirbusinessesonrunningtheirassetsefficientlyandmasteringsupplychainsseamlessly.TheassetsmayincludecalehighinvestmentproductionfacilitiessuchasthoseusedincrackingpetrochemicalsortheymayinvolveobasicchemicalsInourpreviousreportthisgroupearnedamedianTSRofjust6%,butthatfigurehasrisento11%inthisyear’sreport,reflectingsupplyshortagesandincreaseddemandforbasicrawmaterialproductsduringriodContinueddisruptionsinglobalsupplychainscouldbenefitthissectorintheshortrun,byincreasingpricesandmargins.Companieswithmultiplebusinessmodels,whichcombinetheotherthreemodelsinsomefashion,sawlittlechange.Inlastyear’sreport,coveringtheperiodfrom2016to2020,theirmedianTSRwas6%.Inthisyear’sreport,itroseslightlyto7%.Inthecontextofsustainabilityandvolatilechange,themultiplebusinessmodelmaybeatadisad-vantagebecauseitrequiressomuchinvestmenttokeepupwithchangesinallthreedomains.ThrivinginaCrisisWhatdotheinstabilityandmacroeconomicheadwindsthatbeganaffectingthemarketsin2022augur?Isthesuddenshifttoanoverall–12.5%TSRcauseforlong-termconcern,orisitatemporaryanomalyliketheblipthatoccurredinmid-2020?Onewaytoexplorethisquestionistobreakcompaniesoutbyproductcategory.(SeeExhibit8.)Justafewofthesecategoriesfallabovemedianrankingsinboththefive-yearperiodfrom2017to2021andthefirsthalfof2022.Todoso,theiraggregateTSRhadtostayabove12.3%forthefirstfiveyears,andthentheirsix-monthTSRhadtostayabove–12.5%forthefirsthalfof2022.Theproductcategoriesthataccomplishedthisfeatwereelectronicchemicals(whichdeliveredbyfarthehighestTSR),agrochemicals,andfertilizers.BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP1177Thesecategorieshaveseveralattributesincommon.Theybenefitfromahighpriceenvironmentforsomeofthematerialstheysupply,suchasnitrogenfertilizersandsiliconwafers.Onthecustomerside,demandforthesematerialsisstrongandgrowingstronger.Thecategoriesalsotendtohaverobustpricingpower,oftenonthestrengthofcontractswithpass-throughprovisions.Theseareashavealsobenefitedfromdigitalinnovationandclosecustomerrelationships.OneexampleisCFIndustries,afertilizerproducerbasedinDeerfield,Illinois.ThecompanyhadaTSRof21%forthefiveyearsendingin2021,andthenaTSRof22%forthefirsthalfof2022,placingitamongtheveryfewcompanieswithahigherTSRforthosesixmonths.CFIndustriessellsitsfertilizerproductsinEurope,andthelowerpriceofnaturalgasintheUSgivesitacompetitiveadvantageinlowerfeedstockcosts.Italsohasbenefitedfromexpandingdemandforfertilizers,drivenbytagesinitsstrategy,whichincludespromotingsustainability,capitalinvestment(forexample,newblueammoniaplantsintheUSGulfCoast),smartfertilizersystems,andtheadvanceduseofdigitaltechnology.Thedisruptionsofthepastseveralyears,includingoilpricevolatility,thepandemic,inflation,andthewarinUkraine,remindusthaterasofrelativestabilityarefewandfarbetween.Evenifthemacroeconomicclimatecalmsdown,geopoliticalchangesmaycreatenewchallengestoglobalsupplychains.Atthesametime,thereisreasontobeoptimistic.Thecrisisyieldslargeopportunitiesforcompaniesthatgaincompetitiveadvantagenow.Themostresilientcompanies—thosethatcanadaptquicklytochangingcircumstances—appeartobegettingstronger.APlanforIncreasingYourResiliencesarerespondingtothecurrentchallengeswithasurefootedcombinationofanalysisandimplementa-nowavailable.Beyondchangesincoststructuresandassetorkingandfasterdecisionmakingpractices.Highinflationandenergyprices,whichputmarginsatrisk,canrapidlyshift.LaborheworldChemicalcompaniesthatcannotturnonadimewillbeunableompeteExhibit7-Technology-BasedBusinessModelsLeadinTSRPerformanceMedian?ve-yearTSR(%)127532014–2018Technology-basedbusinessmodelAverage13832015–2019Market-basedbusinessmode877772017–2021Asset-basedbusinessmodelMultiplebusinessmodelSources:Companyreports;S&PCapitalIQ;BCGanalysis.Note:FiguresshowmedianTSRforeachfive-yeartimeperiod.Analysiscoversthe351companiesinthe2017–2021peerset.Thesamepeersetisusedforearliertimeperiods,excludingcompaniesonlyiftheirfive-yearTSRwasnotavailable.12BUILDINGRESILIENCEASTHECRISISUNFOLDSAdhesivesandtapesAdhesivesandtapes/constructionchemicalsVinylchloride/PVCInorganiccommoditiesPetrochemicalsandDiversi?edPharmaingredientsFibersandintermediatesSyntheticrubberAdditive/functionalchemicalsChemicaldistributionIndustrialgasesEngineered/high-performancematerial/functionalproductsdingredientsPaintsandcoatingsAgrochemicalspolymersElectronicchemicalsMiningandoil?eldInksandpigmentsPersonalcareFertilizersEverycompanyisdifferent,andthereisnosinglesilver-bulletstrategythatwillsuiteverysituation,butsuccessfulresponsesseemtohaveasequenceofactivitiesincommon.Thesecanbesummarizedinthreesteps.First,sizetheproblemthatyou’refacing.Developasetofscenarios—alternativefutures—thatcapturethespecificissuesaffectingyoursupplyanddemand.Thenstress-testyourexistingfinancialhealthandbusinessmodelagainstthemostsevereoutcomesineachscenario.Includefinancialoutcomesinthesimulations.Assumethatanyoftheseoutcomescouldhappen,andassessthegapsyouidentifyinyourcapabilitiesandcompetitiveenvironment.Howwouldyoustandupifthebusinessenvironmentbeganfallingallaroundyou?dyoubereadyforanewwaveofdemandforproductsadjacenttoyourown,especiallyiftheyrequiredyoutopivottoprovidethem?Beruthlessinscrutinizingyourstrengthsandweaknesses,particularlywithregardtothecompetitivenessofyourassets.Thepointoftheseexercisesisnottopredictthefuturebuttoidentifyno-regretmovesthatyoucanmaketodayinordertomaximizeyourpreparednessforanyfuturethatcomesyourway.Themostrobustinvestmentsinvolvegainingcompetitiveadvantagewhetherthebusinessenvironmentisbrilliantorbleak.Thescenarioexercisewillalsoilluminateyourorganization’stemperamentandgiveyouconfidencetomakesuperior,thoughtfuldecisions,ratherthanhasty,self-defeatingresponses.Second,managetheshort-termchallengesthatconfrontyou.Focusonthosethatneedimmediateattentionandthosethatcanprovideyouwithavisiblewintodemon-stratetoyourorganization.Developpricingprogramsthatoffercustomersrelieffrominflation,inpartthroughyourownabilitytocutcosts.LookforrapidenergytransitionopportunitiesandwaystoshiftfromsellingproductsbyforoutcomepricingExhibit8-TopTSRCategoriesin2017to2022andintheFirstHalfofMedianTSR,?rsthalfof2022(%)1050–5–10–15–20–25–30–35MedianTSR,?rsthalfof2022:–12.5%0246810121416182022242628303234MedianTSR,2017to2021:12.3%MedianTSR,2017to2021(%)MultispecialtyFocusedspecialtiesBasechemicalsandbasicplasticsAgrochemicalsandfertilizersIndustrialgasesSources:Companyreports;S&PCapitalIQ;BCGanalysis.Note:Totalnumberofcompanies:351for2017–2021ranking;347forthefirsthalfof2022.Thetechnology-basedbusinessmodelenablescompaniestoofferingsandintellectualcapital.14BUILDINGRESILIENCEASTHECRISISUNFOLDSThird,developaplantoimproveyourresilienceforthe?Learnfromyourexperience.Monitorrisksandmediumtolongterm.Thishasseveralcomponents:makespecificpeopleaccountableforrapidactionwhencircumstanceschange.Setupprocessestoadjustplans?Setupmilestonestohelpthebusinessmove,stepasneeded.Forexample,youmayneedtoimplementbystep,towarditsgoals.Limiteachbusinesssegmentcostreductionsifdemandsoftens.Escalateincrementallytojustoneortwogoals,andavoidcreatingmoreproj-frommoderateimprovements,suchassuppliercontractectsandinitiatives.renegotiations,toradicalambitions,suchasa20%riseinproductivity.