全球太陽能發(fā)電市場展望2022-2026 Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2022-2026 - intersolar

edGWinedionstotshomeworkandhelpingsolartobecomethelowestcostpowergenerationtechnologyitneedstherightlan 3Foreword3Update12Prospects2022-202621Segments22-202631Conclusions33CsATound4lobalMarketOutlookForSolarPowerry139.2GWaddedtheyearbefore,establishingyetbytheendof2021,withtheTerawattmilestonealreadyachievedaheadofthepublicationofthisThisremarkablegrowthhasnomatchamonganylobalnvenessWithatodaythecostofutility-scalesolarisconsistentlylowerthananyrangeofnewconventionalpowerofsolar+storageversusgaspeakersisalreadydnnwerenothighenoughtomaintaintheAsia-PacificperformanceInourMediumScenarioanticipatesadditionalglobalsolarinstallationyearsgrowingfrom55.8GWadditionalcapacityin2023to347GWin2026.ItwillmostlikelyaddIfittook10yearstoupscaletheworld’stotalgrid-connectedsolarcapacityfrom100GWin2012to1TWin2022,itwilltakeonlyalittlemorethaneDespitetheglobalmarketgrowth,thenumberofprospectedlargestsolarmarketsoverthe5-yearreportoutlookperiod.Brazilisexpectedtoinstall511morethan300GWofnewrenewablepoweredeprominent,consideringthatin2021,solaraloneinstalledmorecapacitythanallotherrenewable77newrenewablepowerbyGWupfromtheGWinIftheofexceptionalperformanceinpbeeworldstotalpowergenerationButrenewablesslowedinlrenewablepowerpotentialforsolarisimmense,anditsconstantlyimprovingcostcompetitivenesswillenablethed4002015201620172018201920202021ionationion8lobalMarketOutlookForSolarPowerSolarssuccessstoryoverothertechnologieshasmanyreasons,butakeyfactorisitssteepcostdyear.Thespreadwithconventionalgeneration0008000201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021WindCoal 99MeetMeetpvDesign,thesmartestwaytodesignutility-scalesolarplantsSpeeduptime-to-designofyourPVplantsMaximizeenergyproductionLearnmoreon/pvdesignsistently0043204320SolartenderresultsprovideatestimonyforthettingnewlowsseeAprilinSaudiArabiantenders—thefirstfortherecordof1.04USDcentsperkWh,thesecondatcentslowerthanthepreviousrecordholder,thethetwolowestbidsoflastyearalsosawabidofntyrPVproductpricesarealsoincreasinglyThelatestdevelopmentinsolartendersisafirsttthatincludeswindcapacityandbatterystorage,d52.882.8982000002032004200500670800920000020320042005006708009020stosolarasasolutiontotheirenergyneeds.InouracrosstheaiesandmostglobalodhdPV400 lobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower400202120206.04.44.7withagrowthrateandGWofnewyThecountryrepeatedthenallowedthesouthernstatetounseattewiththehighestannualinstallationforthefirsttime.Whenitcomesto51%fromlastyearanddrivenbythedecreasingdroppedfrom30%in2019to26%in2020,andisin2023.Theresidentialsector’sperformancelledconstantlydecliningfromtherecord-year2017toedintoachievethe500GWtargetofnon-fossilfuelecountryisstillbattlingwithitschallenges;thereenend,someofthenewincentivetoolsareslowlygettingtraction.Itisexpectedthatthemarketwillwuptakeoccurs,drivenbydifferentgovernmentthelasttobeawardedwithafixedtariff,asfuturemoreattractive,withsolarpowerreachingitsupwardtrendlinethatstartedin2014.An18%dbutverystronginterestinresidentialtingforsolarstillprofitedfromthengforhighselftionratesWhiletheRETLargescaleandgridconnectionissues.Intheabsenceofarenewablevisionfromthefederalgovernment,lytakenovercountrysenergytransitionwiththecreationof27GWbidsforrenewableprojects,asignoftheumschemeandregulartendersforsystemspnewlyelectedgovernmentthatcametopowerininryinthatgroupTheesolarsectorinBrazilin2021werethe1.5GWofgeyear.ThemainpillarbehindSpain’sdevelopmentTax,whichhadkeptthatsegmenteconomicallyeachingpolicyimprovementsthehighelectricitypricesrhehethelarge-scalesegment.ThefirstresultsoftheauctionslaunchedinrecentyearstoincreaserenewabledeploymentinthecountryarealreadytfacevenmoresowhenconsideringthesustainedalargeextentbyglobalmarketleaderChina(seeto17in2020and16in2019.Ukraineistheonlyrwithgenerationcapacitiesexceeding500MWtoofthisproject,inMarch2021,theMinistryofwith3.8GWinstalledin2021anda56%growthr50kW,whichenjoyedafavourablenet-metering eeroThelossesweresubstantialenoughthatallnon-lowerglobalsharethanChinaalonewhichalsohareintheworldthankstotheall-timerecordof54.9GWtivesolartrajectorywentonin2021;itstotalinstalledalmosttothepointofourMediumScenarioofthe4002018201920202021China2000002032004200500670800920000020320042005006708009020moresolarthantheyearbefore.NexttoEurope’smarketleaderGermany,mostotherGW-scalehedfromwhenmultipleGWsizeothercountriesontheArabianPeninsula,nothingledsolarPVcapacitymillennium,whenthegrid-connectedsolareraeneMWin2021,slightlymissingtheGW-scalethatit.0.0 00 004000002021,representing58%oftheglobalsolarpowerarbefore(seeFig.11).NewlyinstalledcapacitiesofPacificthefirstsolarregiontohavecrossedtheoimpactonitssolarpositioninglastyear.WithatAcomparisonofindividualcountriesshowsthatlittlepositiveeffectonitssarketsharetotoGWGermanyholdsashareof6.45%andafleetof4002018201920202021ChinalobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2021 lessthanhalfofIndia’ssolarpowercapacity.Thebottomhalfofthetop10alsosawafewnotableeditswaytofromlastmetelydifferentpictureofglobalsolarisyfromlessthanhalfofIndia’ssolarpowercapacity.Thebottomhalfofthetop10alsosawafewnotableeditswaytofromlastmetelydifferentpictureofglobalsolarisy11st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th99th10thyhadhopedthatthehighprice2022.Butyhadhopedthatthehighprice2022.Butastimehasprogressed,ithasbecomeclearerthatthereturntothelow2020pricesisamovingtargetthathasbeenpushedbackseveralphase;thenegativeimpactsofthepandemicnotovercome,astheApril-imposedChinalockdownsmotorthatonlyrecentlyhadswitchedonitsrapidimpressivegrowthin2022.OurMediumScenarioanticipatesnewlyinstalledcapacitiestoreach228.5GW,a36%growthrateoverthe167.8GWinstalledin2020(seeFig.14).Likelastyear,oureianwaragainstUkraineercountriesthiscouldhavesevereThisassumptionsoundsveryoptimisticbutwhenitwouldmeanthatnearlyallsiliconproductionbiggestwildcardisChina,whichistheonlysinglecountrywithalevertomovethesolarbalance00450400300270.82250200020192020202120222023202420252026tpast,whenuncappedfeed-intariffsfacilitatedistransitioningawayfromtraditionalincentiveAfterthereformwasstarted,demanddroppedtoomGWtobefficialnumberthistimeourMediumChinahasalsoannouncedanewprogrammefortocomeonlinethisyear.OnefactorthatmightandimplementslockdownsinothercitiesoftheinShanghaiitwouldimpactninducedmeltdowntoGWwendiangovernmenthasbeentryingliterallyeverythingtomeetthe100GWtargetofitsSolarMissionheduledtoclosebyendofinmainlyduetothesolarrooftopsegment’s2022.However,withIndiabeingtraditionallyveryfrpna72%contractiontoameagre551MWofnewnintroducedanewmarket-basedfeed-inpremiumlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPowerthattheAsia-PacificRimtogetherwillcontinuetogupAsia-Pacificex-Chinaforthefirsttime,reaching20.3%.ThisshowsthatAsia-Pacificasagroupismarketshare,theywillremaintheworld’ssecondahugepipelineofutility-scalesystemsacrosstheainoneupto5MW,andaquicklygrowingsubsidy-free4000000020202120222023202420252026ChinaedforhifyheatGWitiseven18.3GWhigherthanourHighforthebloc,takingintoconsiderationissueswithshowsthat25ofthem,includingallthelargestecountry’sambitiousenergytransitionprogramme,by2030,whichthenewgovernmentcoalitionannon-EUmember,willcomfortitspositionintheEuropegroupwith2GW.Aftertherevisionofitsregionalsupportschemes,Belgiumsawastrongitsannualinstallationsincrease,itisexpectedtoactivities,fromgovernmenttenderstocorporateThemid-termglobaleconomicoutlookishardtoealRecoverythatglobalgrowthwillslowfromerto026,asthiscleantechnologynotonlyoffersaarecoveryyearmingfouryearsareexpectedtoseeamorehomogenousgrowthfacilitatedbymassivenewproductioncapacityseemstoinvestinadditionalcapacities,whilenewcomersareenteringthespace,andinvestorsseriouslylookintoit.BeyondtheChineseleadersytabsorbingGWinthefirsttimeeverthatannualPVdeploymentwillexceedtheThiswouldalsomeana12%growthrateoverthebitlessoptimisticthanBloombergNEF,whichplannednewsiliconmanufacturingcapacitieswillsMuchoftheworld’ssolardemandbetween2024-5%,willcomefromthetopthreesolarthanGWinyearslater,in2026,theshareofthesethreeisForthemajorityofourGMOforecastperioduntillsosetreductionW(upto84GWperyearalone),accordingtoChinaymentpotentialofaroundGWyearuntilrketnreachGWinandfurthereonitssolargrowthpathinanycaseforthecomingyearsdespitethediscussiononimporttariffs,whichhavebeenatoluntil2026,whileEuropeandMEAwillsitonthedeWithmanyofthebigprojectsbeingbuiltintheMiddleEast,andSaudiArabiafinallyexecutingonits‘40GWby2030’target,theMEA1,12222%1,12222%940in2012,thetotaloperatingon-gridsolarpowerdingtoourMediumsandfinalPVproducts,therunonsolarcontinues.transitiontosolarinthecomingyears.Inyearofour5-yearforecastinthepreviousGMOtlInourMediumScenariowenowpotential(intheorderofMediumScenariocomparedtothe2021GMOedition.Thetopfour00020192020202120222023202420252026lobalMarketOutlookForSolarPowerwscenariosoverthenextfiveyearsinstallations906061891891348972606454353524453529382922332618222822152421181511181387129711961295840100200300400500600edestimatedthisgrouptoinstall938GWovertheWithsevereweatherphenomenabecomingmoreeheindustryfromhighfossilfuelpricesandimporteswithallbutoneofthemThecountrywiththelargest5-yeargrowthratererecastisunintentionally,intotheworld’sthirdlargestsolarLastyear,theweatherforecastforVietnamwastop20prospectsofthisGMOanymore.Anotherrecoverybackedresidentialtaxcreditforenergyedthegovernmentisworkingonprocedurestoeasepermitting.ForTurkey,thesecondcountrywithalobalMarketOutlookForSolarPowermakeprojectfinancingverydifficult.AlthoughwealsoseesomergestmarketwithGWofnewcapacitytobe2022-20262022-2026support4namforsolarpowerisgettingbrighter,andsoistheinvestmentclimateoverthecomingyears.Thiskesonerouslydesignedsupportprogrammewentsomuchoutofcontrolthatthisadditionsgrewby26%comparedto61.2GWthebusinessconditionsInChina,therooftopsegmentexperienceditssharpestgrowthtoreach29GWand53%ofhasoutperformedtheutility-scalesegment.ThetheAmorebalancedtrendisobservedintheUnitederesidentialsystemsin2023andto10%fortorthatIndiaexperiencedin2020thereforehasnotchangedthestructureofthemarket,whichisfullylesegmentThiseeffectiveplatformwiththerightfinancingrintosolarwithtendersforutility-scalesolarandd46%ofglobalinstallations.Thiscanbeattributedutility-scaleside,thelackofnewultra-largesolarutedtsChinaandtoalesserextent,theUnitedStates,butalsobyitsambitioustarget.Onlyfor2022,6GWofsolarllationsbasedontechnologyincreasinglylimitinggrowth.Thecountryisnowlookingalsointofloatingsolaroragri-PVassoThecostcompetitivenessofsolarenablingfirstquarterofalmostofthe8.5GWofWhiletheUShasbeenthelargestmarketforREwell.ThreeofEurope’sverysunnyandspaciousubsidyfreePVpowergmentwillbecomea002023202420252026002022023202420252026lobalMarketOutlookForSolarPowerscalesegmenttoreachalmost140GW.Forthe58%ofthetotalannualinstalledcapacity,representingmorethan200GWgloballyin2026.werplantsaregreenesteconsumersarealsoevolvingmoreandmoreintoprosumers,solarpanelswillturnintobuildingmaterials,andsmartcitieswillwanttoemploytheadvantagesofdistributedsmall-scalesolarincombinationwithstorageanddigitalsolutions.severalothersub-nationalactors.InGermany,Wurttemberg,inJune2021,thecityofBerlinecastforthedevelopmentofsolarresult,weareseeingtherooftopshareremainingperspective,startingfrom2024,rooftopsolarwillderedcapacitywillstarttocomeonlineStillinabsolutetermsthemarketforrooftopsolarissupposedtoexpandsignificantlyoverthecomingwaspublishedinatimeofuncertaintiesabouttheaftermathofaprolongedpandemicwithsevereshort-termsupplychainbottlenecks,andlogisticshigherButunlikelastyearnowwealsohavetheOurincreasinglypositiveviewisbasedonsolar’sthathadlittletonoinfluenceonsolarinvestmentdecisionsbefore.Despiteandbecauseofthetheresultingenergypricehikes,solarisnowincreasinglyconsideredkeytotrueenergycompetewithsolar’sversatility:fromlarge-scaleO40000400356253476692000202120222023202420252026powerplantstoonsitecommercialandresidentialpumps,solarisevencapableofsatisfyingenergyEvenwithtemporarypricehikes,solar’scostleadershipimprovedfurtherin2021,againoutcompetingfossilfuelsandnuclearinanynfurthersupportsolar’sleadingroleintheenergyInconclusion,westillneedtobemoreambitiousfrompolicymakers,inordertoimplementbetterlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower22LatinAmericaisusuallyassociatedwithwarmtheregion,anditprovidesfertilegroundsfortheinterestinsolarPVinLatinAmericanmarketssolarmarketsforseveralyearsnow—oneofitsngcountriesannouncedcommitmentstoreducecountriesfromtheregionareworkingtowardstslocalenergysecurityandreducingdependencyonimportedfuels(withvolatileandfallingcostsandincreasingcompetitivenessofrenewableenergytechnologiesmadethemprimesbuildings),localjobcreationandeconomicdevelopment,thusbenefittingfromstrongpopularthat,inordertofollowaParis-compatibleglobaladvantageintermsofcompetitiveness,simplicityngsurgeinsolarPVinstalledcapacityinLatins2020,wheninvestmentconditionswerelessfavourablethemarketgrewonlyand26%,2323050of2021.ThisisalmostfourtimesthetotalsolarThedeploymentofrooftopsolarPVsystemshaseringnetbillingandfiscalincentivesInmanyricityfromthegrid.Thecompetitivenessofdistributededsystemswithindividualcapacityofupto5MW)projectionsfromtheBrazilianSolarPhotovoltaicapprovalandofficialpublicationofalong-awaitedandtransparencytothemarket.During2022andthecombinationofrisingelectricitypricesinthenmechanisminwhichprosumer’scompensationissystem’sflexibilitybyengagingtheprosumerandlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower500kWinthenearfuture.Althoughtherooftopysupportingframeworksandinvestmentconditionsricancountriesareincreasingtheohelpedacceleratethedeploymentofgigawattsofholdelectricityauctions,aspartofastrategytoawardslong-termcontracts(between10and25years)toelectricitysellers(powerproducers)thatofferthemostcompetitive(lower)prices.ThedThisfacilitatestheimplementationofrenewableyheld:(i)tomeettheelectricitydemandofutilityreliability.CompetitionbetweenelectricitysellersndauctionedbygovernmentsinrecentyearsforcednrPVoysolarPVistheregionisoptimistic,particularlygiventheyInthisregard,policyandregulatoryuncertainties,tsupportframework,remainchallengestomarketgrowthintheregion,whilegreaterinvestmentinidldpolicyandinvestmentconditionsortheHighaorashighasGWwiththeMediumScenarioCapacityadditionprojectionsforsolarPVinLatindnorsrequiresaspecificevaluationoftheeconomicrates,currencyfluctuation,taxation,risksandexpectedreturnsoninvestment.Additionally,thensmaterialssuchassteelPVmarketinLatinAmericaisstilldependentonimportsofequipment,especiallymodulesandsupplymostothercomponentsalsousedinothersectors.Thedevelopmentoflocalmanufacturingfacesseveraldifficulties,fromqualificationofworkforcetolabourlaws,andlackofpoliciesto5020192020202120222023202420252026lobalMarketOutlookForSolarPowertaxesandfeesthatburdenslocalmanufacturing.derindustrialprocessingandeconomiesofscalewillncomingyears.ThisscenariowillnotonlyhaveaTherefore,countriesfromtheregionwillhavethefenergymatrixmakingLatinAmericaastrategicdestinationforsolarPVcompaniesinsearchofom esthelargestpopulationintheregionwith211millioneountryselectricitymixybyusingphotovoltaics;therearesomeregionsinurcescanreachmorethanhydropower,andmorerecentlywithaboomofitseensolarPVpowerplantsaccountfor5GWanddistributedgenerationsystemshaveaninstalled190.8GW 40lobalMarketOutlookForSolarPowervaluechain,morethan78.5billionBRLhasbeeningofAprilcreatingoveronazilianElectricityshometonearly128millioninhabitantsandistheof1.26trillionUSD.Oneoftheworld’sleadingoilproducers,Mexico’selectricitysectorisstillverydependentonfossilfuels,especiallynaturalgasalone,resultinginsolarclaiminga7.9%shareintogenerateelectricityusingphotovoltaics,withanannualaverageirradiationofkWhmday.gnallcreatedascenarioofuncertaintyforlocalandysourceswiththesectorreform,whichhasbuilt-inmechanismstoinnewsolarPVprojects,validatingtheinnovativelelectricitysupplyincheck,providingaboosttosofscalesolarPVisexpectedtoleadpowercapacitybyfromlastyear,becauseofnegativepolicyngGWstretchingkmandcreatingawidevarietyofAsoftheendof2021,Chile’ssolarPVinstalledoneofthebestlocationsonearthfortheuseofverageirradiationexceeds42limatescopebycontinuetobeaddedthroughoutlargescalepowerplantsandsmall-scaledistributedprojects,availabilityoftransmissionanddistributioninfrastructure,giventherapidincreaseinvariablerenewablecapacity.TheexpansionofrenewableoftransmissioninfrastructureinChilehascausedtheforecastperiod.Additionally,consideringtherelativelysmallpopulationofthecountryanditslectricitydemandis3Attheendof2021,Argentina’sinstalledsolarPVryreceivessolarresourcesthatmakessolarPVatechnicallyordertodiversifyitsenergymatrixandtoreachenvironmentalcommitments,theArgentinian2006,lateramendedin2016,settingtargetsand44lobalMarketOutlookForSolarPowerArgentinaisprivilegedwithhighsolarirradiance,anddespitethesuccessoftheenergyauctionstoorheteconomiccrisisandtheCOVIDoperationalbymid-2021.AlmostaquarteroftheauctionedprojectsmissedtheircommissioningactsAdditionalprojectscouldstillbeimpactedandproposingachangetothedistributedgenerationahigherlimitpersystemorbyapplyingnewrulesgovernmenttofindoptionstoimprovethecurrentchanismtoobtainbetterresultsandtheworldthankstoalargehydropowercapacitycountry.However,thecountryhasexcellentsolaritssouthernregionsbecauseofitscombineddwhichshouldmeet60%ofthetotalenergyconsumptionby2025,upfrom32%attheendofthistarget,withseveralprojectsabove800MWDominicanRepublicisoneofthefastestgrowingof45dinstalledintwoblocksof57.5MWeach.In2022,ofrenewableenergyinthecountry,behindhydro.andsupportthedevelopmentofrenewableintheconditionsofthecountryandincreaseitsdependency,knowingthatin2019morethantwowhichalreadycountsseveralPVplantsunderconstructioncombiningmorethan300MW.Thisestimatesthetechnicalpotentialforself-consumptioninthecountryatalmost4GW.Ina2015-2050establishesthat15%ofitsgenerationcapacitywillcomefromrenewablesby2030,andelectricitymixisalreadyprovidedbyrenewablesapopulationofaround11million,isstillusingtherenewableenergysourcesatitsdisposalverygovernmentintendstoreachof–notablywitha900MWtenderthathasbeenlaunchedinJanuary2022.AsmemberofthelSolarAllianceISAtheMinistryoftheremainingcountrieshavesand6lobalMarketOutlookForSolarPoweryof129MW,whichisequivalenttogeneratingeownedutilityFederalElectricityCommissiononsofootballfields.Morethan36,000treesandalmostpark,oneofthelargestinChile,isbuilt58kmsstmentChileangridoperatorCENhasaddedtheLuzdelNortePVplanttoitslistofapprovedgeneratorsbidsandauctionstoawardtheprovisionoffrequencyregulationservicesamongtheeligibleTheperformancetestanalysedtheplant’sSMAinverters,whichofferadvancedgridmanagementfunctions.Inadditiontothetestingofanumberoffunctions,suchasRapidFrequencyControlandRapidVoltageControlthePVpowerplant’sconnectiontotheAutomaticGenerationControlsimulated.ThetestwascarriedoutbyEngieorelecChilealeadingexpertiseandresearchcenterinelectricalpowertechnology,andbyFirstThelargestSolarPVpowerplantinCostaRicaiscurrentlyunderconstructioninHuacascitybyaroundThepowerplantwillconnecttothedecentralisedhrenewableenergyaspossibletoitscustomerstounderdevelopmentintheregionofMinasGerais,corporateofftakerUnipar,whichisoneofBrazil’stUnipar’selectricityneedstogeneratechlorineformentoperationsThedeveloperhaslstworkforceprogram“weareallpartofthesameainingThisinitiativewillallowwithintheproject’sconstruction,generatean88fchnologyinstance,combiningsolarwithbatterystorageonwithagriculturearejustfewofmanyinnovationtsinthevaluechain49hadcapturedcloseto90%ofthemarket,andisar85GWin2020to105GWin2021,andtargetingeadvancedcelldtheditionoftheInternationalRoadmapforAlowhangingfruitinaugmentingmodulepowerButunlikedesigninglargermoduleswithahighersyears.In2017,anewformattookover,calledM2eformatwith210mmsidelengthcalledG12waskingtheirpresenceIntheMisgoingtofalloffthemainstreamsoon,itssuccessorremainsundecidedyet—M10orG12.andcompanieswithnostringsattachedtowaferesthisyearwithashareofgreatertanticipatestheintroductionofevenlargerformatsbetweencostandperformancetomovebeyondWithbasicallyallrecentgiganticsolarcellmanufacturingcapacityexpansionsbasedonPassivatedEmitterRearContact(P