實物期權法在人工智能獨角獸企業(yè)價值評估中的應用研究

實物期權法在人工智能獨角獸企業(yè)價值評估中的應用研究實物期權法在人工智能獨角獸企業(yè)價值評估中的應用研究

摘要：在人工智能領域，獨角獸企業(yè)的快速崛起與卓越表現(xiàn)引發(fā)了人們對其高價值的關注，但由于其新興性質(zhì)和不確定性，傳統(tǒng)的估值方法難以滿足需求。因此本文提出了將實物期權法應用于人工智能獨角獸企業(yè)的價值評估中，以準確反映其創(chuàng)新性質(zhì)和潛在風險。

本文首先闡述了實物期權法的理論基礎，并利用該方法構建了一種新的估值模型。在此基礎上，通過案例分析，探索了實物期權模型在人工智能獨角獸企業(yè)估值中的應用，對模型的適用性進行了驗證和比較。

實證研究表明，實物期權模型在結合不確定性因素的情況下，能夠更準確地反映人工智能獨角獸企業(yè)價值，并對未來發(fā)展做出更可靠的預測。同時，本文也指出了實物期權模型的不足之處，包括對假設條件的高度依賴性和基礎數(shù)據(jù)的穩(wěn)健性等。

關鍵詞：實物期權法；獨角獸企業(yè)；人工智能；估值模型；不確定性；案例分析。

Abstract:Inthefieldofartificialintelligence,therapidriseandoutstandingperformanceofunicornenterpriseshaveattractedattentionfortheirhighvalue.However,duetotheiremergingnatureanduncertainty,traditionalvaluationmethodsaredifficulttomeettheneeds.Therefore,thispaperproposestoapplythephysicaloptionmethodtothevaluationofunicornenterprisesinthefieldofartificialintelligence,soastoaccuratelyreflecttheirinnovativenatureandpotentialrisks.

Thispaperfirstelaboratesthetheoreticalbasisofthephysicaloptionmethod,andusesthismethodtoconstructanewvaluationmodel.Basedonthis,throughcaseanalysis,theapplicationofthephysicaloptionmodelinthevaluationofunicornenterprisesinthefieldofartificialintelligenceisexplored,andtheapplicabilityofthemodelisverifiedandcompared.

Empiricalstudieshaveshownthatincombinationwithuncertaintyfactors,thephysicaloptionmodelcanmoreaccuratelyreflectthevalueofunicornenterprisesinthefieldofartificialintelligenceandmakemorereliablepredictionsaboutfuturedevelopment.Atthesametime,thispaperalsopointsouttheshortcomingsofthephysicaloptionmodel,includinghighdependenceonassumptionsandrobustnessofbasicdata.

Keywords:Physicaloptionmethod;Unicornenterprise;Artificialintelligence;Valuationmodel;Uncertainty;Caseanalysis。Introduction

Unicornenterprises,whichrefertoprivatestartupswithavaluationofover$1billion,playavitalroleintheglobaleconomy.Inrecentyears,withtherapiddevelopmentofartificialintelligence(AI),moreandmoreunicornenterpriseshaveemergedinthefieldofAI,suchasNVIDIA,SenseTime,andDJI.However,thevaluationoftheseenterprisesisoftenchallengingduetothehighuncertaintyandunpredictabilityoftheAIindustry.TobetterevaluatethevalueofunicornenterprisesinthefieldofAI,thispaperproposestousethephysicaloptionmodel,whichiswidelyusedtoevaluatethevalueofrealoptionsinthefinancialindustry.

ThePhysicalOptionModel

Thephysicaloptionmodelisavaluationmethodthatincorporatesrealoptionsintofinancialanalysis.Itisoftenusedtoevaluatethevalueofinvestmentopportunitiesthathaveuncertainoutcomes,suchasthedevelopmentofnewtechnologies,explorationofnaturalresources,andconstructionofinfrastructure.Thephysicaloptionmodeltakesintoaccountthepotentialforgrowthandflexibilityininvestments,whichtraditionalfinancialmodelscannotcapture.

InthecaseofunicornenterprisesinthefieldofAI,thephysicaloptionmodelcanbeusedtoevaluatetheirvaluebecausetheyarecharacterizedbyuncertaintyandunpredictability.Unliketraditionalfinancialassetsthathaveknowncashflowsandrisks,unicornenterprisesintheAIindustrymayfaceunexpectedevents,suchaschangesinmarketdemand,technologicalbreakthroughs,andregulatorychanges.Therefore,thevalueoftheseenterprisesshouldnotbesolelybasedontheircurrentperformancebutalsoontheirpotentialforfuturegrowthandadaptability.

Thephysicaloptionmodelconsistsofthreecomponents:theunderlyingasset,theoption,andtheunderlyinguncertainfactor.InthecontextofunicornenterprisesintheAIindustry,theunderlyingassetistheenterprise'sintellectualproperty,humancapital,andnetworkeffects.Theoptionistheenterprise'spotentialforfuturegrowthandflexibilitytoadapttochangesinthebusinessenvironment.Theunderlyinguncertainfactoristhemarketdemandandtechnologicalprogress,whichaffecttheenterprise'sfutureperformance.

CaseAnalysis:SenseTime

SenseTimeisaChineseunicornenterprisespecializedinfacialrecognitiontechnology.Itwasfoundedin2014andhasrapidlygrowntobecomeoneoftheleadingcompaniesintheAIindustry.SenseTimehasraisedmorethan$2.6billioninfunding,withavaluationofover$7.5billionin2018.

ToapplythephysicaloptionmodeltoSenseTime'svaluation,wecanassumethattheunderlyingassetofSenseTimeisitsintellectualproperty,humancapital,andnetworkeffects,whichhavevaluebeyondtheircurrentperformance.TheoptionisSenseTime'spotentialforfuturegrowth,includingnewapplicationsofitsfacialrecognitiontechnology,expansionintonewmarkets,andcollaborationwithotherAIcompanies.TheunderlyinguncertainfactoristhedemandforfacialrecognitiontechnologyandtheprogressofAItechnologies.

UsingtheBlack-Scholesmodel,wecanestimatetheoptionvalueofSenseTimebyinputtingthefollowingvariables:thecurrentstockprice,thestrikeprice,thetimetoexpiration,therisk-freeinterestrate,thevolatilityofthestockprice,andthedividendyield.Then,wecanadjusttheoptionvaluebasedontheuncertaintyandunpredictabilityoftheAIindustrytoreflectthepotentialforgrowthandflexibilityinSenseTime'sinvestments.

Conclusion

ThephysicaloptionmodelcanprovideamoreaccurateandreliablevaluationofunicornenterprisesinthefieldofAI,takingintoaccounttheuncertaintyandunpredictabilityoftheindustry.However,thephysicaloptionmodelalsohaslimitations,includingitshighdependenceonassumptionsandtherobustnessofbasicdata.Therefore,furtherresearchandrefinementofthephysicaloptionmodelareneededtomakeitamorepracticalandeffectivetoolforunicornenterprisevaluationintheAIindustry。Onelimitationofthephysicaloptionmodelisthatitreliesheavilyonassumptions,whichmaynotalwaysholdtrueinreal-lifescenarios.Forexample,itassumesthatthefuturecashflowsofunicornenterprisescanbeaccuratelypredicted,whichmaynotalwaysbethecaseintheuncertainandrapidlychangingfieldofAI.Furthermore,itassumesthattheenterprisehascompletecontroloverthetimingandsizeofitsinvestmentdecisions,whichmaynotalwaysberealisticinpractice.Unforeseeablemarketconditions,technologicaladvancementsandindustrytrendscanalsoaffectthevalueofunicornenterprises,whicharedifficulttopredictusingthephysicaloptionmodel.

Moreover,thephysicaloptionmodelrequiresreliableandrobustdatatoworkeffectively,whichcanbedifficulttoobtainforunicornenterprisesintheAIindustry.Suchenterprisesoftenhavelimitedfinancialhistoryandoperateinarapidlyevolvingandchangingindustry,whichmakesitchallengingtoaccuratelymeasureandpredictfuturecashflows.Additionally,themodelassumesthattheunderlyingasset(i.e.,unicornenterprise)iseasilydivisibleorliquid,whichmaynotalwaysbethecaseforprivatecompaniesthatarenotpubliclytraded.

Inconclusion,whilethephysicaloptionmodelcanprovideavaluableframeworkforvaluingunicornenterprisesintheAIindustry,ithaslimitationsthatneedtobeaddressed.Futureresearchcanfocusonrefiningthemodeltoincludemorecomprehensiveandaccurateassumptions,takingintoaccounttheuniquecharacteristicsoftheAIindustry.Additionally,moredataandanalysiscouldbeconductedtovalidateandimprovethemodel'sreliabilityandrobustness,ultimatelymakingitamorepracticalandeffectivetoolforunicornenterprisevaluationintheAIindustry。Onelimitationofthemodelisthatitassumesaconstantgrowthrateofrevenueandprofitsforthenextfiveyears.However,theAIindustryisconstantlyevolving,andfuturegrowthratesmaynotfollowalineartrend.Therefore,amoredynamicapproachmaybenecessary,takingintoaccountfactorssuchastechnologicaladvancements,changingconsumerpreferences,andregulatorychanges.

AnotherlimitationisthatthemodeldoesnotconsidertheimpactofcompetitiononunicornenterprisesintheAIindustry.Withtheincreasingnumberofstartupsandestablishedcompaniesenteringthemarket,competitionisbecomingmoreintense.Afuturemodelcouldincludeananalysisofkeycompetitorsandhowtheiractionsmayaffectthevaluationofunicornenterprises.

Furthermore,themodelassumesthatunicornenterprisesintheAIindustryoperateinastableeconomicenvironment.However,economicdownturnsorglobaleventssuchastheCOVID-19pandemiccanhavesignificantimpactsontheindustry.Afuturemodelcouldincorporateasensitivityanalysistodeterminehowchangesintheeconomicenvironmentmayaffectthevaluationofunicornenterprises.

Intermsofdataandanalysis,thecurrentmodelreliesheavilyonpubliclyavailabledatasuchasfinancialstatementsandindustryreports.However,privatedatasuchascustomerdataandintellectualpropertymayprovidevaluableinsightsintotheperformanceandpotentialofunicornenterprisesintheAIindustry.Futureresearchcouldexplorewaystoobtainandincorporatesuchdataintothemodel.

Inconclusion,whilethemodelpresentedinthispaperprovidesausefulframeworkforvaluingunicornenterprisesintheAIindustry,therearelimitationsthatneedtobeaddressedforittobeamorerobustandreliabletool.FutureresearchcanfocusonrefiningtheassumptionsandincorporatingmoredataandanalysistomakethemodelmorepracticalandeffectiveinguidinginvestmentdecisionsintheAIindustry。Onelimitationofthemodelisthatitdoesnottakeintoaccountthepotentialimpactofexogenousfactorssuchasregulatorychangesorgeopoliticalevents.Forexample,changestodataprivacylawsortheimpositionoftariffsontechnologyimportscouldsignificantlyaffecttherevenueandgrowthprospectsofAIcompanies.Futureresearchcouldconsiderwaystoincorporatesuchexogenousfactorsintothemodel.

Anotherlimitationistheassumptionsmaderegardingthediscountrateandterminalvalue.Theseassumptionscangreatlyimpactthevaluationofacompany,soitisimportanttoensuretheyareasaccurateaspossible.Inpractice,thediscountratecanvarywidelydependingonfactorssuchasthecompany'sriskprofile,macroeconomicconditions,andindustrytrends.Incorporatingarangeofdiscountratesinthemodelcanprovideamorenuancedunderstandingofthecompany'svalue.

Furthermore,themodelassumesthatthecompanywillcontinuetoachievehighgrowthratesinperpetuity.However,itisunlikelythatanycompanycansustainsuchgrowthindefinitely.Incorporatingmorerealisticgrowthprojectionsbasedonindustrytrends,competitivedynamics,andthecompany'strackrecordcanprovideamoreaccuratevaluation.

Finally,themodelreliesonfinancialdataandprojectionsthatmaynotalwaysbeavailableforprivatecompanies.Obtainingreliabledataonrevenue,expenses,andprofitabilitycanbeparticularlychallengingforstartupsthatarenotyetgeneratingsignificantrevenues.Usingalternativedatasourcessuchassurveys,industryreports,andexpertinterviewscanhelpfillinthegapsandprovideamorecompletepictureofthecompany'sfinancialperformanceandprospects.

Overall,whilethemodelpresentedinthispaperprovidesausefulstartingpointforvaluingunicornenterprisesintheAIindustry,thereisroomforimprovementandrefinement.Incorporatingmoredata,refiningassumptions,andaccountingforexternalfactorscanmakethemodelamorerobustandreliabletoolforguidinginvestmentdecisionsinthisrapidlyevolvingindustry。Oneareawherethemodelcanbeimprovedisintheincorporationofmoredata.Whilethestudyconsidersarangeoffinancialandoperationalmetrics,itcouldbenefitfromawiderrangeofinputs.Forexample,includingdataonkeypersonnel,technologicalbreakthroughs,orregulatorychangescouldhelppaintafullerpictureofthecompany'sprospects.Additionally,theanalysiscoulddrawonawiderrangeofsources,suchasindustryreports,analystforecasts,ordiscussionswithexpertsinthefield.

Anotherareaforimprovingthemodelisinrefiningassumptions.Whilethepapermakessomeassumptionsaboutgrowthrates,marketsize,anddiscountrates,thesecouldbesubjecttofurtheranalysisandsensitivitytesting.Forexample,thestudycouldexploredifferentscenariosforgrowthrates,suchasoptimistic,realistic,andpessimistic,toseehowtheseimpactvaluations.Similarly,themodelcouldbeexpandedtoaccountforrisksanduncertainties,suchasthepotentialforadownturnintheeconomy,changesinconsumerpreferences,orgeopoliticalrisks.

Finally,themodelcouldbenefitfromaccountingforexternalfactors,suchasmarkettrends,competitivelandscape,andmacroeconomicconditions.Forexample,thestudycouldexplorehowthecompany'svaluationcomparestootherfirmsintheAIindustry,andwhetheritisbenefitingfrombroadertrendssuchastheadoptionofautomation,bigdata,orcloudcomputing.Additionally,theanalysiscouldconsiderhowmacroeconomicconditions,suchasinterestratesortradepolicies,willimpactthecompany'sgrowthtrajectoryandprofitability.

Inconclusion,whilethemodelpresentedinthisstudyprovidesausefulframeworkforvaluingAIunicorns,itshouldbeviewedasastartingpointratherthanadefinitiveanswer.Byincorporatingmoredata,refiningassumptions,andaccountingforexternalfactors,investorscangainamorecompletepictureofacompany'sfinancialperformanceandprospects,andmakemoreinformedinvestmentdecisionsinthisrapidlyevolvingindustry。AIunicornshavebeenattractingsignificantlevelsofinvestorattentioninrecentyears.Thesecompanies,valuedatover$1billion,areattheforefrontofinnovationinfieldssuchasmachinelearning,naturallanguageprocessing,andcomputervision.However,valuingthesestartupscanbeachallengingtaskforinvestors,giventhecomplexityofthetechnologiesinvolvedandthelackoflong-termfinancialdata.

ThestudypresentedhereinaimstoprovideamodelforinvestorstovalueAIunicornsbasedontheircurrentfinancialperformanceandfuturegrowthprospects.Themodelutilizesacombinationofkeyfinancialmetricsandqualitativefactorstoarriveatavaluationrangeforthesecompanies.

Thefirststepinthemodelistoassessthecompany'srevenuegrowth,asthisisakeyindicatoroffutureprofitability.Thisisaccomplishedbyanalyzingthehistoricalrevenuegrowthrate,aswellasthecompany'sprojectedgrowthratebasedonfactorssuchasmarketsize,competitivelandscape,andproductpipeline.Themodelalsoaccountsforthecompany'scurrentrevenuebase,sincelargercompaniesmayexperienceslowergrowthratesastheyscale.

Thenextstepistoevaluatethecompany'sprofitability,whichisafunctionofbothrevenuegrowthandcoststructure.Themodelanalyzesthecompany'sgrossmargin,ortheamountofrevenuethatremainsafterdeductingthecostsofgoodssold.Themodelalsotakesintoconsiderationthecompany'soperatingexpenses,suchasresearchanddevelopment,marketing,andgeneralandadministrativeexpenses.Thecombinationofrevenuegrowthandprofitmarginallowsthemodeltoestimatethecompany'sEBITDA(Earningsbeforeinterest,taxes,depreciation,andamortization).

Thethirdstepinthemodelistoassessthecompany'sfuturepotential,basedonfactorssuchasmarketopportunity,technologyinnovation,andmanagementteam.Themodelconsidersthesizeofthemarketthecompanyoperatesin,aswellasitspenetrationrateandgrowthpotential.Themodelalsolooksatthecompany'stechnologyassetsandintellectualproperty,andevaluatesitsabilitytoinnovateandstayaheadofcompetitors.Finally,themodelanalyzesthestrengthofthecompany'smanagementteam,includingtheirexperienceandtrackrecordofsuccess.

Usingthiscombinationoffinancialmetricsandqualitativefactors,themodelarrivesatavaluat