經(jīng)濟(jì)論文-上市公司盈利預(yù)測(cè)

é?êD1???óˉà??¤2a

ò??￠±|??1é·Y(600456)?D??±¨??

????

????1.DDòμ·???

????o???òμμ??′?????a????DDòμD?μ??°???ü?ú?￡óéóúo???òμμ??e2??′??,2¨ò?oí???í1????ú?′à′?ùóDìá??2úá?μ?????,ì?±eê???×?2¨ò?787μ?ê?·é3é1|ò??°???íA380μ?????ê1ó?,ò??°1ú?ú?§??·é?úoí′ó·é?ú????μ?2???í???,???a????DDòμD?μ??°???ü?ú?￡?üó???2?óDí?±￡3?40%ò?é?μ????ù??3¤?￡?ü1¤DDòμ×÷?a??DDòμμ???òaó|ó?áìóò,??è?????ó?á?2￠2?′ó,μ???à??ê??ò??±ê??ü?üòyí?×ê??1?×￠μ??1μ??￡??×??ò1ú?ü·??a?§μ????óoí×??÷?D·￠·￠?ˉ?úμ??D??3é1|,?¤???′à′?üó???2?μ????ù?éò?±￡3?40%ò?é??￡

????2.í?×êááμ?

??????1???ê??ò1ú×?′óμ?ò????a?÷μ?2ú?·μ???óD?eê?2?á?רòμ?ˉéú2ú?￠???D?ùμ?,2ú?·1?·oó|ó?óúo???o?ìì?￠?ˉ1¤?￠êˉóí?￠ò?ò??￠o￡?ó1¤3ì?°??μμè?ó???·??·μèáìóò,1ú?úêD3???óD?ê?ú40%ò?é?,???D??μμ??2?oí?ü1¤??2?êD3???óD?ê??′?80%ò?é??￡1????úè??ò??2?DDòμ????μú7???￡

????ò??μμíéú2ú3é±?,ó??ˉ2ú?·?á11×÷?aìáéy1???o?D??o?ùá|μ??ù′??￡?aé???òμ?ê2ú1íò??μ?è?á÷3ìo￡?à??????,?éóDD§?μμíéú2ú3é±?20%?￡áíía,?°?ú1?????í?μ?ó??ê????????D??ú???÷á??êí?2ú,?ìê±1???μ???2????e2??ò??????2?×a±?,êμ??2ú?·?á11μ?2???ó??ˉ,′ó??ìá??éy1???μ?o?D??o?ùá|?￡

?????ˉ2?êD3??°?°à?1??￡2009?ê10??,1???éú2úμ??ˉ2?í¨1y?ì?é,?éíêè?êμ?????úì?′ú?￡1??????°?ˉ2?2ú?ü???a300??,2009?êéú2ú1¤òμó??ˉ2ú?·79.8??,??à??ê??′?41%,?úê??????????ú???????μá?40%,?o?ùó?ê?·?3￡í?3?,?¤??2010?ê2úá????a100???￡?ú1ú?ò1?à????úì?′úμ??t2???D±??,??òμ??êD3??°?°·?3￡à?1??￡

????3.·???ìáê?ó?í?×ê?¨òé

????o￡?à????????μ?;??????2?Dè?ó??3¤μíóú?¤?ú?￡

????1???2010??2012?êEPS·?±e?a0.17?a?￠0.57?aoí1.13?a,??ó|?ˉì?PE·?±e?a150±??￠44±?oí22±?,PB???a3.03±?,′|óúàúê·??μí????,′ó′óμíóúDDòμ?ù?μ7.49?￡????μ?1???2010??2012?êμ??′o???3¤?ê?é′?176.8%,?ò???′o?1????′à′μ?3¤?ú??3¤?±á|?￡òò′?,?ò????óè??1é?°??3??±μ?í?×ê?à???￡

????±í12010??2012?ê1???óˉà??¤2a

????

????

?????t?￠é?o￡ò?ò?(601607)?D??±¨??

????

????1.DDòμ·???

?????ú?t???èêD3???μ?1y3ì?D,?ù?e?aê?μ÷??3?2??á11,′ó?ù??3?á?ê??￠ò?ò??￠°×??μè??·?1é,ò?ò?oí??3é?a?ù?e?ó2?μ???μ??￡°??걨????íê±?,?t???è?ù?eí?×êè??òμ???àaò?oü???ú?￡′ó°??걨êy?Y?′,?ú?t???èêD3???μ?1y3ì?D,?ù?e2???μ÷??3?2??á11,′ó?ù??3?á?ê??￠ò?ò??￠°×??μè??·?1é,D?D?2úòμòà±?1?·o?′o??￡??·?1é?D,ò?ò?oí??3é?a?ù?e?ó2?μ???μ??￡ó?°×??1é?à±è,ò?ò?1é?üê?è?è??Dìì?￡?t???è,é?o￡ò?ò??￠??°￠°￠?o?￠?aà?éú???￠?′D?ò?ò??￠???ò?ò??￠????°×ò??￠í?èêì?êüμ??ù?eμ???±é??3?,×?ê??àμ±ááà??￡

????2.í?×êááμ?

????èú×ê??í??ˉ1????ó?ùà????￡1???±?′????ˉ×ê?e?aí??ò:(1)?3?úíaò?ò?1¤òμê?1o??2￠,???ú2011?êμ×?°ê?1oé?ò??ˉí?μ?D??è·??￠é?o￡D????￠?aáa??ò?μè×ê2ú;(2)?ú3¤èy???￠?éèy??oí?·23o￡μ???D????òê?1o·??úí???;(3)???ó′ó′′D?ò??￠?á?ò?oí·???ò?μ??D·￠í?è?;(4)?¨éè?óòμD??￠?μí3;ó??ˉá÷?ˉ×ê?eoí2????á11?￡

????1???ò?ò?·??úè?1ú2??????ó?ù??DD?￡é?o￡ò?ò?×÷?a1ú?úμú?t′óμ?ò?ò?á÷í¨?óòμ,è￥?êò?à′è?1úD?à???2?·￥???ù,?èoó??1éé???éìáaò?òμ?￠1??Y?Dé?ò?ò?oí?￡?¨ê?ò?ò?1???,?úèú×êíê3éoó,?¤??1???μ?2￠1o2?·￥????ò?2??ó?ì?￡

?????1éú??×ê2úê?1o????o?1???à?èó?￡é?ò??ˉí?μ??1éú??òμ???úê?ê?è?1à???ú20òú?aò?é?,°′DDòμ???ùà?èó?ê1à????à?èó???¨?úòú?aò?é?,?′à′ê?1o???÷????o?1???òμ?¨?￡

????3.1???óˉà??¤2a

????±í22010??2012?ê1???óˉà??¤2a

????

????

????èy?￠??D?μ???(600517)μ??à

????

????1.òμ???ò??

???????ê1???o?í?D??￠2???,ê?óú3é3¤?Dμ?°×?í??1é?￡è?ò????è1???,è?×ê×ó1???é?o￡??D?μ???·??§óD?T1???ó?????áít??μ???óD?T1???????á??e??óa(chǎn)10òúμ?·??§o??e±??1?÷?ò?ü2é1oDòé?￡·???ê|è??a,D??êòáê?,??D?μ????°μ?í?í?×ê+?ú?ü?μo??±á?′ó??????ê?μ?3?,oóD??é?ü?1????μ?à′×????μ???μ￥?￡

????′?′?2é1o,ê????ê?μ?á|1????ˉ?D1??￡?D±ê2é1o2009?ê?èμ?í?????μ?ò?2?·??￡????áít??μ???ê????ê?μ?í?1???μ?1?áa?óòμ,ò2ê???D?μ??????×ó1???μ?o?×ê·?,·???ê|è??a,??2é1oòa?ò′ú±íá????μ?í?μ?í?×ê?????￡?a±ê10òú?aμ?2009?ê′ó??2é1oDòé?°oó?e???a8.5òú?a,ò??ó?ü??D?μ???2008?êè??êà′×????μ??úê?ê?è??￡

????6???úé??÷?D±ê;8???ù′??aí?oó??±??1?÷êD3??￡

????2.ê?ò?óˉà??¤2a

????2010?ê?á2012?ê??1é??1