羅賓斯管理學(xué)決策

羅賓斯管理學(xué)決策第1頁/共49頁規(guī)劃與決策

Planning&DecisionMakingChapter

3-2第2頁/共49頁6–3Definition-決策Decision-Makingachoicefromtwoormorealternatives.在兩個或多個選項中作出選擇Lowleveltohighlevelmanagersmakedecisions.Allorganizationalmembersmakedecisionsthataffecttheirjobsandorganizationtheyworkfor.第3頁/共49頁6–4UniversalityofdecisionmakingManagersatalllevelsmakedecisions，butparticularlyimportanttomanagersDecisionmakingispartofallfourmanagerialfunctions-Planning,Organizing,Leading,andControllingMakingdecisionsistheessenceofthemanagement.Managersarecalleddecisionmakers第4頁/共49頁Howdoyoumakedecisions?入學(xué)考試面試題：為何考上海大學(xué)？考進了大學(xué)你準備做什么？未來的職業(yè)設(shè)想是什么？你們的回答：上海大學(xué)很美麗、很有名我要認真學(xué)習(xí)，考證書？？？7–5第5頁/共49頁決策常見的問題片面短見感性即刻滿足前后矛盾短期決策與長期目標不一致等等7–6第6頁/共49頁Howdomanagersmakedecisions?管理者如何作出賢明的決定？7–7第7頁/共49頁6–8ContentsEightStepsintheDecision-MakingProcessThreeWaysManagersMakeDecisionsDecisionsandDecision-MakingConditionsDecision-MakingStylesandhowbiasesaffectdecisionmakingChallengesfordecisionmakers(add.)EffectiveDecisionMakingTechniquesSituationsofdecisionmakingChapter

3第8頁/共49頁Whatarethegeneralfactorsaffectingmanagers’decisionmaking?

影響決策的因素ProcessApproachesTypesofdecisionsConditionsManagersObjectivesErrorsandBiases7–9第9頁/共49頁7–101.TheDecision-MakingProcess

決策過程第10頁/共49頁7–11Exhibit7–1

TheDecision-MakingProcessP179TheDecision-MakingProcessincludes

Eightstepsfromidentifyingaproblemtoevaluatingthedecisioneffectiveness出處：羅賓斯《管理學(xué)》13e第11頁/共49頁決策過程Source:RobertN.LussierConcepts,Applications,SkillDevelopment4e7–12第12頁/共49頁6–132.TheWaysManagersMakingDecisions

管理者的決策方法第13頁/共49頁6–142.1RationalDecisionMakingapproach

理性決策DAssumptionsofRationalityManagersmakeconsistent,value-maximizingchoiceswithspecifiedconstraints.Assumptionstodecisionmakers:

TheyAreperfectlyrational,fullyobjective,andlogical.明確目標，徹底邏輯，完全理性Havecarefullydefinedtheproblemandidentifiedallviablealternatives.清晰界定問題和全部選項Haveaclearandspecificgoal明確具體目標Willselectthealternativethatmaximizesoutcomesintheorganization’sinterestsratherthanintheirpersonalinterests.滿足組織最大利益第14頁/共49頁6–152.2BoundedRationalityDMApproach

有限理性決策

DBoundedRationality（有限理性）Decisionmakingthat’srational,butarelimited(bounded)byanindividual’sabilitytoprocessinformation.Assumptionsarethatdecisionmakers:WillnotseekoutorhaveknowledgeofallalternativesWillsatisfied—choosethefirstalternativeencounteredthatsatisfactorilysolvestheproblem—ratherthanmaximizetheoutcomeoftheirdecisionbyconsideringallalternativesandchoosingthebest.Ex:Tofindajob第15頁/共49頁

Mostdecisionsthatmanagersmakedon’tfittheassumptionsofperfectrationality,sotheysatisfice7–16第16頁/共49頁6–17后期決策受前期決策影響B(tài)oundedRationality（有限理性）BoundedrationaldecisionmakinginfluencedbyOrganization’sculture,internalpolitics,powerconsiderations,andEscalationofcommitment（承諾升級）:anincreasedcommitmenttoapreviousdecisiondespiteevidencethatitmayhavebeenwrong.Ex:Challengerspaceshuttledisaster第17頁/共49頁6–182.3IntuitiveDecision-makingapproach

直覺決策TheRoleofIntuitionIntuitivedecisionmaking（直覺決策）Ismakingdecisionsonthebasisofexperience,feelings,andaccumulatedjudgment.第18頁/共49頁6–19Exhibit7–6 WhatisIntuition?

FiveDifferentAspectsofIntuitionSource:BasedonL.A.BurkeandM.K.Miller,“TakingtheMysteryOutofIntuitiveDecisionMaking,”AcademyofManagementExecutive,October1999,pp.91–99.P184潛意識決策情感決策認知決策經(jīng)驗決策價值道德決策直覺第19頁/共49頁7–203TypesofDecisionsandDecision-MakingConditions

決策類型與決策條件第20頁/共49頁7–213.1

TypesofProblems&Decisions

問題類型與決策類型StructuredProblems>>>ProgrammedDecisionUnstructuredProblems>>>NonprogrammedDecision第21頁/共49頁6–223.1TypesofDecisionsStructuredProblemsandProgrammedDecisionsStructuredProblems結(jié)構(gòu)性問題Definition:Straightforward,familiar,andeasilydefinedproblems直接、熟悉并容易界定的問題Involvegoalsthatclear.Arefamiliar(haveoccurredbefore).Areeasilyandcompletelydefined—informationabouttheproblemisavailableandcomplete.Example:aserverinarestaurantspillsadrinkonacustomer’scoatProgrammedDecisions程序化決策Definition:Arepetitivedecisionthatcanbehandledbyaroutineapproach.Example:Themanagerofferstohavethecoatcleanedatrestaurant’sexpense第22頁/共49頁6–23(1)Programmeddecision程序化決策Policy（政策）Ageneralguidelineformakingadecisionaboutastructuredproblem.Procedure（程序）Aseriesofinterrelatedstepsthatamanagercanusetorespond(applyingapolicy)toastructuredproblem.Rule（規(guī)則）Anexplicitstatementthatlimitswhatamanageroremployeecanorcannotdo.第23頁/共49頁6–24Example-Policy,Procedure,andRulePolicy（政策）Acceptallcustomer-returnedmerchandise.Procedure（程序）Followallstepsforcompletingmerchandisereturndocumentation.Rules（規(guī)則）Managersmustapproveallrefundsover$50.00.Nocreditpurchasesarerefundedforcash.第24頁/共49頁6–25ProblemsandDecisions(cont’d)UnstructuredProblemsandNonprogrammedDecisions

UnstructuredProblems結(jié)構(gòu)不良問題Definition:Problemsthatareneworunusualandforwhichinformationisambiguousorincomplete.Problemsthatwillrequirecustom-madesolutions.NonprogrammedDecisions非程序化決策Definition:Auniqueandnonrecurringdecisionthatrequiresacustom-madesolution唯一的和不可重復(fù)的決策。Decisionsthatgenerateuniqueresponses.第25頁/共49頁7–26Exhibit7–7 ProgrammedversusNonprogrammedDecisionsP187第26頁/共49頁7–273.2Decision-MakingConditions

決策制定條件Certainty（確定性）Definition:Asituationinwhichamanagercanmakeanaccuratedecisionbecausetheoutcomeofeveryalternativechoiceisknown.Example:wheretodepositmoneyRisk（風(fēng)險性）Definition:

Asituationinwhichthemanagerisabletoestimatethelikelihood(probability)ofoutcomesthatresultfromthechoiceofparticularalternatives.Example:nextpageP187第27頁/共49頁6–28Decision-MakingConditionsUncertainty（不確定性）Definition:AsituationinwhichadecisionmakerhasneithercertaintynorreasonableprobabilityestimatesavailableLimitedinformationpreventsestimationofoutcomeprobabilitiesforalternativesassociatedwiththeproblemandmayforcemanagerstorelyonintuition.第28頁/共49頁6–29Decision-MakingConditionsAnExampleofDecision-MakinginanUncertaintyConditionMaximax:theoptimisticmanager’schoicetomaximizethemaximumpayoffMaximin:thepessimisticmanager’schoicetomaximizetheminimumpayoffMinimax:themanager’schoicetominimizemaximumregret.第29頁/共49頁6–30Exhibit7–9 PayoffMatrixExample:WhichStrategyWillUChoose?SupposeyouareasalesmanagerofVISAP189羅賓斯管理學(xué)第30頁/共49頁6–31Exhibit7–9 PayoffMatrixMaxmaxchoiceMaxminchoice第31頁/共49頁6–32Exhibit7–10 RegretMatrixMinimaxchoiceP19024-13=24-9=24-24=24-18=21-14=21-15=21-21=21-14=28-11=28-18=28-15=28-28=第32頁/共49頁6–33ReviewDecision-MakinginanUncertaintyCondition利益可能性的最大化抉擇Maximax:theoptimisticmanager’schoicetomaximizethemaximumpayoff(Thinkaboutthe

largestPossiblegain)利益最低可能性的最大化決策Maximin:thepessimisticmanager’schoicetomaximizetheminimumpayoff(ThinkaboutthelowestPossiblegain)后悔程度最小化決策Minimax:themanager’schoicetominimizemaximumregret.(ThinkaboutminimizingthePossibleregret)第33頁/共49頁6–344.Decision-MakingStyles

決策者的風(fēng)格

線性有邏輯的非線性直覺的集體參與的決策個人獨斷的決策當(dāng)機立斷式深思熟慮式恰到好處式第34頁/共49頁6–354.1

Linear-Nonlinearthinkingstyleprofile

LinearthinkingstyleNonlinear

thinking

styleAdecisionstylecharacterizedbyaperson’spreferenceforusingexternaldataandfactsandprocessingthisinformationthroughrational,logicalthinkingAdecisionstylecharacterizedbyaperson’spreferenceforinternalsourcesofinformationandprocessingthisinformationwithinternalinsights,feelings,andhunches直覺.第35頁/共49頁6–36Exhibit7–11 CommonDecision-MakingErrorsandBiases4.212Decision-MakingBiasesandErrorsP191第36頁/共49頁6–374.2

12Decision-MakingBiasesandErrorsHeuristics啟示法Using“rulesofthumb”tosimplifydecisionmaking.1）OverconfidenceBias自負偏見Holdingunrealisticallypositiveviewsofone’sselfandone’sperformance.2）ImmediateGratificationBias即時滿足偏見Choosingalternativesthatofferimmediaterewardsandthattoavoidimmediatecosts.第37頁/共49頁6–38Decision-MakingBiasesandErrors(cont’d)3）AnchoringEffect錨定效應(yīng)Fixatingoninitialinformationandignoringsubsequentinformation.4）SelectivePerceptionBias選擇認識偏見Selectingorganizingandinterpretingeventsbasedonthedecisionmaker’sbiasedperceptions.5）ConfirmationBias證實偏見Seekingoutinformationthatreaffirmspastchoicesanddiscountingcontradictoryinformation.第38頁/共49頁6–39Decision-MakingBiasesandErrors(cont’d)6）FramingBias框架效應(yīng)偏見Selectingandhighlightingcertainaspectsofasituationwhileignoringotheraspects.7）AvailabilityBias有效性（眼前）偏向Losingdecision-makingobjectivitybyfocusingonthemostrecentevents.8）RepresentationBias典型性偏見Drawinganalogiesandseeingidenticalsituationswhennoneexist.9）RandomnessBias

隨機性偏見Creatingunfoundedmeaningoutofrandomevents.第39頁/共49頁6–40Decision-MakingBiasesandErrors(cont’d)10）SunkCostsErrors沉沒成本錯誤Forgettingthatcurrentactionscannotinfluencepasteventsandrelateonlytofutureconsequences.11）Self-ServingBias自利性偏向Takingquickcreditforsuccessesandblamingoutsidefactorsforfailures.12）HindsightBias后見偏向Mistakenlybelievingthataneventcouldhavebeenpredictedoncetheactualoutcomeisknown(after-the-fact).第40頁/共49頁Howtoavoiddecisionmakingbiasanderrors1.Beingawareofthemandthennotusingth