事故致因理論系統(tǒng)模型主體

目標‐自由‐amr和Cambes把事故傾向性定義為“一種由具有這種特質(zhì)的人決定的，比別人發(fā)生事故的概率高得多的特質(zhì)”。一些研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，事故并不是完全隨機分布的，的確有些人發(fā)生的事故比單用概率預測的結(jié)果高得多。Accident‐PronenessOntheconstructionofanofficepark,theprojectmanagermaintainedanaccurateaccountingofallworkerinjuries.Ofthe195workersthatwereontheproject,atotalof16workerinjurieswererecordedforwhichtreatmentbyaphysicianwasrequired.OneworkerwhowascalledJinxWatleyaccountedforthreeoftheseinjuries.TheprojectmanagerrecognizedthishighnumberofinjuriessustainedbythisoneworkerandconcludedthatJinxwastrulyaccident‐prone.TheprojectmanagerfeltthatterminatingJinx’semploymentwastheonlyviableoption.所處的工作環(huán)境更加，如夜間施工30萬人的駕駛事故記錄：不到4%的人在六年中事故記錄卻達事故總數(shù)的36%。但若在后三年中，95的事故發(fā)生三年被認為是安全的駕駛員身上。Accident‐PronenessTheprojectmanagerontheofficeparkwasrethinkingwhattodowithJinxWatley.Hebegantoexaminethenatureoftheaccidents.Inoneaccident,Jinxwasdeckingasinglestorybuildingwithanotherworker.Astheotherworkerstartedtoscamperdowntheladder,Jinxjumpedoffoftheroofandreceivedaminorsprainedankle.Inthesecondaccident,Jinxhadgottensawdustinhiseyewhenhewassawingplywoodwithacircularsawwithoutanyeyeprotection.Inthethirdaccident,Jinxgotafewstitchesinhisheadwhenapieceofscraplumberfellonhishead.Hewasnotwearingahardhat.TheprojectmanagersuddenlyrealizedthatJinxwasconsistentinhisrepeatedviolationofjobsitesafetyrules.Thatis,Jinxwascinghimselfinsituationsthatincreasedhisprobabilityofbeinginjured.TheprojectmanagermetwithJinxandmadeitclearthatifhewaseverseenviolatingbasicjobsiterulesthathisemploymentwouldbeterminated.TheprojectmanagertheorizedthathecouldnotchangeJinx’spropensitytotakerisks,buthecouldchangeJinx’swillingnesstoactonthoseimpulses.現(xiàn)象：并不是永久固定不變的，事故傾向性也將隨著時間的流逝而改原因：相信能在事故中控制自身/性格外向/激進/啟示：工人即使有的傾向，他的行為也是可以受到足夠的影響而使他安全操?適當?shù)倪x“不尋常的、消極的和會分散注意力的壓力”會導致工人增加“發(fā)生事故和低質(zhì)量行為”的傾向性Adjustment‐StressThegeneralsuperintendentofamechanicalcontractornoticedthatoneofhiscrewshadaninordinatenumberofinjuriesinthepastyear.Hedecidedtoseeifhecouldgetsomeideaofwhy.Todothis,hedecidedtoasktheforeman,EllisKraus,afewquestions.HeaskedEllis,“Couldyoulmealittleabouthowyourunyourcrew?”Elliswaspleasedtoanswerthisquestion.Hesaid,“Iamafirmbelieverinhavingamotivatedcrew.Ialwayssetgoalsforthem.Weareallgoalorientedandthosegoalscanmotivateus.Forexample,ifthescheduleshowsthatwehaveaweektoinstallsomeductwork,IwilllthemthatweneeditdonebynoononThursday,likeinthreeandahalfdays.Sometimestheyactuallymeetmygoals.Iftheydon’tmeetthegoal,Iwilltearintothemalittle.IletthemknowthatIamupset.Theywanttodoagoodjobandsotheywilltryevenharderthenextweek.Itendtokeeprightontopofthem.That’sthebestwaytogetproductionoutofthem.They’reagreatcrew.”HathadCmsin93組織的安全文化，是個人和Gulnud00)通過文獻總結(jié)較為通用的安全氛圍 “設(shè)定可行目標后給予工人高度自由去完成工作，將獲得高質(zhì)量的作業(yè)。高警惕性能夠產(chǎn)生高水平的作業(yè)和無事故的行為?！盞rr的結(jié)論：在一個公司里，那些很少有公司內(nèi)部調(diào)動機會和提升潛能的部門發(fā)生事故的可能性更大。根據(jù)目標‐自由‐警惕性理論，應(yīng)當培訓經(jīng)理和主管人員，使他們把工作變得對工人具有更大的激勵性。Participativemanagement/Clearworkassignments/Positive ment/goalGoals‐dom‐AlertnessWesGraberwasaforemanforaspecialtycontractorthatdidalltypesofconcretework.Weswasconsideredtobeoneofthebestforemeninthe andthesafetyrecordofhiscrewwasworldclass–noneofhiscrewworkershadreceivedarecordableinjuryinthesevenyearshewaswiththefirm.Wescommentedthathewasalwayssafetyconsciousandfollowedgoodsafetyprocedures,butthemainreasonforhissuccesswasinthewayhemanagedhisassignedwork.Hesaid,“Nomatterhowsimpletheformworkseemtobe,Ialwaysmeetwiththeworkerstodiscusshowwewilldothework.Imakesureweallagreeonasinglenofattackonhowtogettheworkdone,andImakeabsoluysurethatthecrewhasallthetools,equipmentandmaterialstodotheworksafely.Whentheworkershavegoodideas,Ipraisethemfortheircontributions.Whentheworkgetscompletedaccordingtoourns,Iamneverhesitanttogivetheworkersapatontheback.TheydogreatworkandImakesurethattheyknowthatthisappreciatesthem.”一個典型的行為安全管理流程為(一個典型的行為安全管理流程為(Cooper2009)：行為修正理論：識別不安全行 好的結(jié)果強化行為，壞的結(jié)果制作合適的行為觀 化行者和模范人 方法：物質(zhì)獎懲、精神鼓勵、通過行為觀察評估現(xiàn)有的安全行 效反 目標設(shè)定理論 社會學習理論 效果：有著相當?shù)膬?yōu)勢。工地的安全指數(shù)從原來的60%提高到90%左右LitinenandRuohom?ki1996)。單獨的安全培訓方式效果并不明顯如果結(jié)合安全績效反饋則明顯。將安全績效反饋和目標設(shè)定兩種干預方法結(jié)合。問題：反饋是沒有效果的(CameronandDuff2007)解釋：度以及工人對的感知能力都會影響干預的實施效果(Bradley1989;Krause1997)。Heinrich’sDomino事故是一系 發(fā)生 。一系列或一連 的發(fā)生，最終導致了事故的發(fā)生一個工人從在建建筑物的第三層樓上摔了下來，嚴重受傷。他沒系安全帶，但僅僅是因為他沒有佩戴安全裝置，還是因為得分析的一連串導致了該事故呢？ 受傷概受傷概受傷概受傷概受傷概受傷概 低 安全與生產(chǎn)是DistractionsTheory 背景問題Thesafetydirectorwascalledouttothejobstebecauseabadaccidenthadoccurred.Lemwasaskedwhathappenedandheexined,“Wehadthislargeslabofconcrtetogetpouredonthisjob.Becauseofsitelogistics,wedecidedtocetheconcretewithcraneandconcretebucket.Theonlycomplicationwasthatpowerlinethatranawfulclosetotheworkarea.Iwasdesignatedasthespotterforthecraneoperator.AfewtimesIhadtoalertthecraneoperatorthathewasgettingtooclosetothepowerline,butitwasneveraseriousissue.Thentoday,theladywiththelunchwagonshowedupandshewastryingtoparkoverthere,soIranovertohertohertostayonthesolidground.Justasthiswashappening,theconcretebucketandcranelinecametooclosetothepowerlineandactuallymadecontact.Thatworkerwhograbbedtheconcretebucketgotaquickshock.Thecraneoperatotoldmethatwhenhesawmerunninghetempoarilylosthisconcentrationandforgottocheckthelocationofthepowerline.”結(jié) 原 高安全與生產(chǎn)是工作效 以同步提高 低 受傷概受傷概受傷概受傷概DistractionsTheoryHankwasacarpenteronanofficeparkproject.Oneday,thesuperintendentapproachedHankandaskedhimifhedroveawhite.Hankacknowledgedthathedidhavesuchatruck.Thesuperintendentthentoldhimthatawhitewasseenonthejobsitelatethepreviousnightandthatseveralpowertoolsweremissingfromthegangbox.Nowhewasbeingaccusedofstealingsometools.Hewasquiteshakenbytheaccusation.ThesuperintendenttoldHanktostickaroundashewouldcomebackinashortwhile.Hanktriedtoshrugitoffandwentbacktowork,butthiswasreallybotheringhim.Itwasdifficulttoconcentrateonhiswork.Afewminuteslaterashewascuttingsomeofthesteps,hegotadeepcutinhishandfromthechop高?由于身體的不良狀態(tài)而成 ?因與工作無關(guān)的事情或 實驗的具體方案是什么 低 失誤 5 0次 務(wù) 疲勞25表得 變 測試測試測試變 測試測試測試111不安全行為 認知失效概生產(chǎn)與安全的關(guān)行為預測測降低控制目可以通過對因果結(jié)構(gòu)的重新設(shè)計，如增加潛在管理措施的環(huán)路（如基于目標設(shè)定的行為安全干預）、消除管理層對生產(chǎn)的關(guān)注的優(yōu)先級、改變安全信息交換的深度和質(zhì)量、消除報告的延時、重新設(shè)計管理層的決策機制等，找到預防和糾正工人不安全行為的關(guān)鍵管理環(huán)節(jié)。社會經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)的復雜性“自下而上”的建模思想——“從刻畫組成系統(tǒng)的微觀單元之行為或特性出發(fā)，進而通過領(lǐng)域知識表達它們在一定環(huán)境背景下彼此之間的關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系及其演化為，揭示對于系統(tǒng)宏觀層次涌現(xiàn)出來的規(guī)律性的認識”( ad 2011)主體的概念是20世紀90年代初在計算機科學領(lǐng)域(WooldridgeandJennings1995)通過安全管理資料收集，了解實際項目文件中關(guān)于安全管理組織結(jié)構(gòu)、各崗位安全職責和安全管理體系等的規(guī)定；通過關(guān)鍵崗位訪談，了解實際項目中的安全管理路徑、各崗位與安全有關(guān)的具體工作、各崗位間的實際交互情況等；通過問卷，進一步明確各崗位的安全職責、各崗位對施工現(xiàn)場安全的影響、各崗位間的交互和影響關(guān)系等。 共 了9個建筑施工項目上的196位員工，包括從項目經(jīng)理到一線工人在內(nèi)的現(xiàn)場與 相關(guān)的