公募基金2023年6月配置展望：資產(chǎn)荒下的基金選擇

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0.10-3.601614121086420-2-4-6-82017-012017-042017-072017-102018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-04

:CPI: :PPI: :

51.9

49.255535149474543413937352018-032018-062018-092018-122019-032019-062019-092019-122020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-03?6?-0.7 -0.4120.0100.080.060.040.020.00.0-20.0-40.0-60.014.012.010.08.06.04.02.00.0-2.0-4.02019-1-312019-3-312019-5-312019-7-312019-9-302019-11-302020-1-312020-3-312020-5-312020-7-312020-9-302020-11-302021-1-312021-3-312021-5-312021-7-312021-9-302021-11-302022-1-312022-3-312022-5-312022-7-312022-9-302022-11-302023-1-312023-3-3170::-6.2

9.8

50.040.030.020.010.00.0-10.0-20.0-30.0-40.0:::7??800%700%600%500%400%300%200%100%0%-100%-200%05000001000000150000020000002500000300000035000002019-1-312019-3-312019-5-312019-7-312019-9-302019-11-302020-1-312020-3-312020-5-312020-7-312020-9-302020-11-302021-1-312021-3-312021-5-312021-7-312021-9-302021-11-302022-1-312022-3-312022-5-312022-7-312022-9-302022-11-302023-1-312023-3-31::-30-20-10010203002000400060008000100001200014000160002019-3-312019-5-312019-7-312019-9-302019-11-302020-3-312020-5-312020-7-312020-9-302020-11-302021-3-312021-5-312021-7-312021-9-302021-11-302022-3-312022-5-312022-7-312022-9-302022-11-302023-3-31::8??-10000-5000050001000015000-500005000100001500020000250003000035000400002019-1-312019-3-312019-5-312019-7-312019-9-302019-11-302020-1-312020-3-312020-5-312020-7-312020-9-302020-11-302021-1-312021-3-312021-5-312021-7-312021-9-302021-11-302022-1-312022-3-312022-5-312022-7-312022-9-302022-11-302023-1-312023-3-31-6-4-24206810121614121086420-2-42019-1-312019-3-312019-5-312019-7-312019-9-302019-11-302020-1-312020-3-312020-5-312020-7-312020-9-302020-11-302021-1-312021-3-312021-5-312021-7-312021-9-302021-11-302022-1-312022-3-312022-5-312022-7-312022-9-302022-11-302023-1-312023-3-31M2-M1

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1:M

2:950006000700080009000100001100012000130001400028002900300031003200330034003500360037002022-1-42022-1-172022-1-282022-2-172022-3-22022-3-152022-3-282022-4-122022-4-252022-5-112022-5-242022-6-72022-6-202022-7-12022-7-142022-7-272022-8-92022-8-222022-9-22022-9-162022-9-292022-10-192022-11-12022-11-142022-11-252022-12-82022-12-212023-1-42023-1-172023-2-62023-2-172023-3-22023-3-152023-3-282023-4-112023-4-242023-5-10???-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%1.101.081.061.041.021.000.980.960.940.920.908008001.31%2.26%-3.25%-4.0%

-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%8001011?-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2023-1-32023-1-62023-1-112023-1-162023-1-192023-1-312023-2-32023-2-82023-2-132023-2-162023-2-212023-2-242023-3-12023-3-62023-3-92023-3-142023-3-172023-3-222023-3-272023-3-302023-4-42023-4-102023-4-132023-4-182023-4-212023-4-262023-5-42023-5-92023-5-122023-5-17A5.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%0.00%-1.00%-2.00%-3.00%-4.00%AAAA1216.00%14.00%12.00%10.00%8.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%0.00%-2.00%-4.00%2023-02-012023-03-012023-04-012023-05-01AAA-2.00%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%2023-02-012023-03-012023-04-012023-05-01AAA?13144.00%2.00%0.00%-2.00%-4.00%-6.00%-8.00%-10.00%-12.00%-14.00%2023-2-12023-2-62023-2-92023-2-142023-2-172023-2-222023-2-272023-3-22023-3-72023-3-102023-3-152023-3-202023-3-232023-3-282023-3-312023-4-62023-4-112023-4-142023-4-192023-4-242023-4-272023-5-52023-5-102023-5-152023-5-18AAA5.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%0.00%-1.00%-2.00%-3.00%-4.00%2023-2-12023-2-62023-2-92023-2-142023-2-172023-2-222023-2-272023-3-22023-3-72023-3-102023-3-152023-3-202023-3-232023-3-282023-3-312023-4-62023-4-112023-4-142023-4-192023-4-242023-4-272023-5-52023-5-102023-5-152023-5-18AAA?15

/16???17理念：抓緊行業(yè)空間和優(yōu)質(zhì)公司兩個點，適當放開估值容忍度。框架：從宏、中觀角度出發(fā)，優(yōu)選行業(yè)獲取超額收益。在行業(yè)配置基礎(chǔ)上，逆向思維精選個股。組合：主動管理組合回撤，提升組合安全邊際。1819-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2022-1-42022-1-192022-2-102022-2-252022-3-142022-3-292022-4-152022-5-52022-5-202022-6-72022-6-222022-7-72022-7-222022-8-82022-8-232022-9-72022-9-232022-10-172022-11-12022-11-162022-12-12022-12-162023-1-32023-1-182023-2-92023-2-242023-3-132023-3-282023-4-132023-4-282023-5-18-

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800- 2021-12-2720?210.9511.051.11.151.21.251.32022-1-72022-1-282022-2-252022-3-182022-4-82022-4-292022-5-202022-6-102022-7-12022-7-222022-8-122022-9-22022-9-232022-10-212022-11-112022-12-22022-12-232023-1-132023-2-102023-3-32023-3-242023-4-142023-5-5_500_2000_300_1000_0.950.970.991.011.031.051.071.092022-1-72022-1-282022-2-252022-3-182022-4-82022-4-292022-5-202022-6-102022-7-12022-7-222022-8-122022-9-22022-9-232022-10-212022-11-112022-12-22022-12-232023-1-132023-2-102023-3-32023-3-242023-4-14_300_1000_500_2023-5-522-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2022-1-42022-1-172022-1-282022-2-172022-3-22022-3-152022-3-282022-4-122022-4-252022-5-112022-5-242022-6-72022-6-202022-7-12022-7-142022-7-272022-8-92022-8-222022-9-22022-9-162022-9-292022-10-192022-11-12022-11-142022-11-252022-12-82022-12-212023-1-42023-1-172023-2-62023-2-172023-3-22023-3-152023-3-282023-4-112023-4-242023-5-10--100010001000--1000100023-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%----10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%--24-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%2022-1-42022-1-192022-2-102022-2-252022-3-142022-3-292022-4-152022-5-52022-5-202022-6-72022-6-222022-7-72022-7-222022-8-82022-8-232022-9-72022-9-232022-10-172022-11-12022-11-162022-12-12022-12-162023-1-32023-1-182023-2-92023-2-242023-3-132023-3-282023-4-132023-4-282023-5-18---50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2022-1-42022-1-192022-2-102022-2-252022-3-142022-3-292022-4-152022-5-52022-5-202022-6-72022-6-222022-7-72022-7-222022-8-82022-8-232022-9-72022-9-232022-10-172022-11-12022-11-162022-12-12022-12-162023-1-32023-1-182023-2-92023-2-242023-3-132023-3-28----2023-4-132023-4-282023-5-1825-45%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%0%-5%-10%-15%2022-1-42022-1-192022-2-102022-2-252022-3-142022-3-292022-4-152022-5-52022-5-202022-6-72022-6-222022-7-72022-7-222022-8-82022-8-232022-9-72022-9-232022-10-172022-11-12022-11-162022-12-12022-12-162023-1-32023-1-182023-2-92023-2-242023-3-132023-3-282023-4-132023-4-282023-5-18--- - -10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2022-1-42022-1-192022-2-102022-2-252022-3-142022-3-292022-4-152022-5-52022-5-202022-6-72022-6-222022-7-72022-7-222022-8-82022-8-232022-9-72022-9-232022-10-172022-11-12022-11-162022-12-12022-12-162023-1-32023-1-182023-2-92023-2-242023-3-132023-3-28---2023-4-132023-4-282023-5-1826-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2022-9-302022-10-142022-10-212022-10-282022-11-42022-11-112022-11-182022-11-252022-12-22022-12-92022-12-162022-12-232022-12-302023-1-92023-1-162023-1-302023-2-62023-2-132023-2-202023-2-272023-3-62023-3-132023-3-202023-3-272023-4-32023-4-112023-4-182023-4-252023-5-52023-5-122023-5-19--27

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)2.99%2.07%1.88%0.26%5.28%5.94%6.58%8.35%4.69%4.33%3.91%4.55%3.15%2.84%2.58%2.99%4.48%4.13%3.71%4.85%2.88%2.16%2.72%3.00%0.82%0.94%0.53%0.59%3.95%3.72%3.63%4.06%0.51%0.62%0.71%1.37%1.08%1.75%1.94%4.04%7.756.005.112.963.672.131.881.002017201820192020202120222023?-5.00%5.00%0.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%2017-1-42018-1-42019-1-42020-1-42021-1-42022-1-42023-1- (1-3

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)29% % %003078.OFA2016/12/263.890.620.4536.69009457.OFA2020/9/72.770.50.352.94004544.OFA2017/6/142.390.290.3318.30519226.OF,2017/2/162.550.480.5434.84010232.OF2021/3/152.820.590.4642.9230-5.00%35.00%30.00%25.00%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%40.00%45.00%2017-1-32018-1-32019-1-32020-1-32021-1-32022-1-32023-1-

1:9

+ +20177.25%0.89%2.32%4.15%-0.80%20184.30%4.67%-0.32%0.22%5.04%20199.20%6.38%10.16%10.97%7.03%20208.08%4.40%9.12%13.21%5.35%20215.28%7.47%7.82%5.61%5.86%2022-0.12%-0.81%-5.07%-3.78%0.89%20231.49%1.45%1.75%1.60%1.28%5.80%4.02%4.14%5.16%4.06%1.91%1.92%4.27%3.62%2.20%2.07%2.53%6.93%5.74%2.52%3.042.090.971.431.852.811.590.60.91.611:9?31% % % % %000107.OFAB2019-03-1311.323.4312.373.942.24190.50485111.OFA,,2010-08-