Morgan Stanley-Business Education Services Interactive Comps 8723 The Leaders,The Laggards,and The Context-此為英文文檔

Update

August7,202304:01AMGMT

Business&EducationServices|NorthAmerica

InteractiveComps8/7/23:TheLeaders,TheLaggards,andThe

Context

Ourinteractivecompstoolallowsinvestorstobenchmarkindividualstocks'valuationagainstsectorpeersandhistory.

BusinessServicesstocks(-3.8%)werewellbehindtheS&P500(-2.3%)asearningscontinuedthisweek.InfoServicesstocks(-5.2%)laggedagainthisweekasCLVT(-27.7%)severelydraggedthesub-groupdown,andVRSK(-1.0%)wasthebestperformer.Ex-CLVT,theInfoServicessub-groupwouldstillhaveunderperformed(-2.9%).DiversifiedBusinessServicesstocksfaredbetter(-2.3%),comingin-linewiththeoverallmarket,ledbyLRN(+1.6%)whileARMK(-5.5%)andADV(-7.4%)dragged.

Thisweek,wehavethefollowingcompaniesreportingearnings:Tues(BMO):ADT,ARMK,andSTER;andThurs(BMO):GBTG.

Exhibit1

Source:VisibleAlpha,FactSet,MorganStanleyResearch.

MorganStanley&Co.LLC

ToniKaplan

EquityAnalyst

+1212761-3620

Toni.Kaplan@

GregParrish,CFA

EquityAnalyst

+1212761-0156

Greg.Parrish@

HilaryLee,CFA

ResearchAssociate

+1212761-2203

Hil.Lee@

Business&EducationServices

NorthAmerica

IndustryView

In-Line

MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.

2

Update

Exhibit2:BusinessServicesPerformanceSummary

Company

Performance

%of52

1Week1Month3MonthYTD1Year3YearWeekHigh

InfoServicesMean

InfoServicesMedian

-5.2%

-2.5%

-3.0%

-1.8%

9.1%

11.3%

9.0%

15.2%

-3.9%

2.4%

31.5%

22.7%

-16.7%

-9.8%

DiversifiedBusinessServicesMeanDiversifiedBusinessServicesMedian

-2.3%

-2.0%

-1.6%

0.4%

15.8%

7.8%

7.9%

7.8%

-3.3%

-0.4%

14.8%

40.6%

-17.2%

-12.8%

BusinessServicesMean

BusinessServicesMedian

-3.8%

-2.1%

-2.4%

-1.4%

12.3%

10.3%

8.4%

8.5%

-3.6%

1.9%

23.6%

23.0%

-16.9%

-9.8%

S&P500

-2.3%0.5%10.3%16.6%7.9%35.4%-2.8%

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.

Exhibit3:InformationServices-PricePerformance

InfoServices

Rank

1WeekPriceMove

Ticker8/4/2023

1MonthPriceMove

Ticker8/4/2023

YTD

Ticker8/4/2023

Shortinterest%

Ticker8/4/2023

S&P500

-2.3%

0.5%

16.6%

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

VRSK

SPGI

TRU

MSCI

TRI

EFX

FDS

MCO

IT

STER

CLVT

-1.0%

-1.4%

-1.4%

-1.5%

-2.0%

-2.5%

-3.3%

-3.8%

-4.0%

-8.3%

-27.7%

MSCI

FDS

VRSK

TRU

TRI

MCO

SPGI

IT

STER

EFX

CLVT

14.7%

7.3%

3.3%

0.7%

-1.4%

-1.8%

-2.5%

-3.0%

-8.3%

-13.7%

-28.5%

TRU

VRSK

MCO

MSCI

SPGI

TRI

FDS

EFX

IT

CLVT

STER

37.7%

30.2%

22.0%

16.6%

15.5%

15.2%

5.2%

1.7%

0.2%

-18.0%

-27.7%

CLVT

VRSK

TRU

EFX

FDS

SPGI

MSCI

MCO

TRI

STER

IT

4.8%

4.5%

4.0%

4.0%

2.1%

1.1%

0.8%

0.8%

0.8%

0.7%

NA

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.

Exhibit4:DiversifiedBusinessServices-PricePerformance

Div.BusinessServices

1WeekPriceMove

1MonthPriceMove

YTD

Shortinterest%

Rank

Ticker

8/4/2023

Ticker

8/4/2023

Ticker

8/4/2023

Ticker

8/4/2023

S&P500

-2.3%

0.5%

16.6%

1

LRN

1.6%

LRN

5.5%

BFAM

46.7%

LRN

9.6%

2

WCN

0.4%

ADT

3.1%

LRN

25.5%

ARMK

4.2%

3

ADT

-03%

CTAS

05%

RSG

151%

ADT

19%

4

WM

-1.5%

BFAM

0.5%

ADV

13.9%

ADV

1.4%

5

RSG

-2.0%

ADV

0.4%

CTAS

8.5%

CTAS

1.2%

6

GBTG

-2.1%

WCN

0.4%

WCN

7.1%

WM

1.2%

7

CTAS

-2.5%

RSG

-1.9%

WM

2.3%

WCN

0.6%

8

BFAM

-3.9%

WM

-6.4%

GBTG

-2.7%

RSG

0.6%

9

ARMK

-5.5%

GBTG

-7.9%

ARMK

-7.9%

GBTG

0.3%

10

ADV

-7.4%

ARMK

-10.8%

ADT

-30.1%

BFAM

NA

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.

MorganStanleyResearch3

Aug-13

Aug-20

Aug-19

Aug-18

Aug-17

Aug-16

Aug-15

Aug-14

Aug-22

Aug-21

Aug-23

Aug-13

Aug-20

Aug-19

Aug-18

Aug-17

Aug-16

Aug-15

Aug-14

Aug-22

Aug-21

Aug-23

95%85%75%65%55%45%35%

25%

Update

Exhibit5:InfoServicesRelativeValuationtotheMarket

InfoServicesP/EPremiumtoS&P500(%)

PremiumtoS&P500

Current

56%

5YAverage

66%

10YAverage

52%

15%

5YAverage

PremiumtoS&P500(%)10YAverage

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:InfoServicesincludesEFX,FDS,IT,MCO,MSCI,SPGI,TRI,TRU,andVRSK,and

excludesCLVTandSTERduetolackofhistory.

Exhibit6:DiversifiedBusinessServicesRelativeValuationtotheMarket

DiversifiedBusinessServicesP/EPremiumtoS&P500(%)

65%

55%

45%

35%

25%

15%

5%

PremiumtoS&P500

Current

5YAverage

10YAverage

23%38%38%

5YAverage

PremiumtoS&P500(%)10YAverage

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:ExcludesADVandGBTG.

4

P/E'24

Aug-17

Aug-18

Aug-19

Aug-20

Aug-21

Aug-22

Aug-23

40x

35x

30x

25x

20x

15x

10x

5x

0x

WM

EFXMultiplePremium/DiscounttoTRU

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

Update

Exhibit7:BusinessServicesRegression

BusinessServices:RevCAGR'22-'24vs.'24P/E

VRSK

CTAS

MSCI

TRI

MCO

WCN

SPGI

IT

BFAM

EFX

FDS

RSG

TRU

ARMK

ADT

y=226.94x+8.404R2=0.3998

CLVT

STER

0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%

RevCAGR'22-'24

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch,TRIadjustedforRefinitivstake.

Exhibit8:EFXhasa12%NTMEV/EBITDAMultiplePremiumtoTRU,~1

StandardDeviationAboveAverage

Current:

Average:

12%

(0%)

Std.Dev.fromavg:0.8x

AverageOneStdDev.TwoStd.Dev.ThreeStd.Dev.

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.

MorganStanleyResearch5

Aug-17

Aug-18

Aug-19

Aug-20

Aug-21

Aug-22

Aug-23

SPGIMultiplePremium/DiscounttoMCO

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

Update

Exhibit9:SPGIhasa6%NTMEV/EBITDAMultipleDiscounttoMCO,whichis

~1StandardDeviationBelowAverage

Current:

Average:

(6%)(3%)

Std.Dev.fromAvg:-0.8x

Average

OneStdDev.

TwoStd.Dev.ThreeStd.Dev.

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.

Exhibit10:InfoServicesComps

MorganStanley-StandardizedComps

EV/EBITDAPrice/Earnings

InformationServices

OrganicRevenueGrowth

Consensus

Method

Unadjusted

Post-SBC

ConsensusMethod

NItoCommonAdj.forAmort,net

Ticker

Company

Rating

Share

Price

EquityValue

Enterprise

Value

'23

(%)

'24

(%)

CY'23E

(x)

CY'24E

(x)

CY'23ECY'24E

(x)(x)

CY'23E

(x)

CY'24E

(x)

CY'23E

(x)

CY'24E

(x)

CLVT.NClarivatePlcEW6.985,1049,7792.0%4.0%8.7x8.3x9.9x9.3x8.8x7.8x11.0x9.5x

FDS.NFactsetResearchSystemsIncUW431.0416,77318,1588.7%7.4%22.4x20.6x22.4x20.6x27.4x24.4x27.4x24.4x

MSCI.NMsciIncEW543.7843,45147,16810.2%10.1%31.2x28.2x31.2x28.2x40.6x35.6x40.6x35.6x

TRI.NThomsonReutersCorpEW131.0856,37058,0435.5%4.9%21.8x20.9x21.8x20.9x37.2x35.1x37.2x35.1x

IT.NGartnerIncEW340.6827,28829,0529.2%10.2%20.1x18.2x22.1x19.8x31.7x27.7x28.9x27.7x

VRSK.OVeriskAnalyticsIncEW230.4033,50836,9647.5%6.9%25.7x23.5x25.7x23.5x39.8x34.8x39.8x34.8x

MCO.NMoody'sCorpEW338.0562,23567,6687.2%8.3%26.8x23.7x26.8x23.7x35.0x30.9x35.0x30.9x

SPGI.NS&PGlobalIncOW383.72122,714136,2547.1%7.8%23.5x21.4x23.5x21.4x30.8x26.8x30.8x26.8x

Average-Subscription-BasedInfoServices7.2%7.5%22.5x20.6x22.9x20.9x31.4x27.9x31.3x28.1x

EXPN.LExperianPlcOW36.5133,62637,5515.8%7.6%15.5x14.2x15.5x14.2x26.0x23.5x26.0x23.5x

EFX.NEquifaxIncEW197.1124,40229,9272.5%12.8%17.3x14.9x17.3x14.9x29.0x23.5x29.0x23.5x

TRU.NTransunionOW78.5115,22320,4543.9%10.0%14.7x13.0x15.6x13.7x22.1x18.8x25.3x20.9x

FICO.NFairIsaacCorpNC855.1821,66823,47710.0%11.0%29.0x25.2x29.0x25.2x40.8x34.0x40.8x34.0x

DNB.NDun&BradstreetHoldingsIncNC11.294,8458,2403.0%4.6%9.2x8.7x9.2x8.7x11.5x10.3x11.5x10.3x

ADP.OAutomaticDataProcessingIncEW248.00102,746104,0027.5%6.5%20.0x18.3x20.0x18.3x28.6x25.9x28.6x25.9x

PAYX.OPaychexIncEW124.6745,16844,4097.1%6.2%19.2x18.0x19.2x18.0x27.7x25.6x27.7x25.6x

FA.OFirstAdvantageCorpNC14.292,1692,336(3.9%)8.9%9.6x8.6x9.8x8.8x14.0x12.5x14.4x12.8x

STER.OSterlingCheckCorpEW11.401,1271,596(3.2%)9.0%7.9x7.1x10.1x8.9x10.1x8.4x13.8x11.0x

HRT.NHirerightHoldingsCorpNC10.288171,395(9.6%)7.3%8.3x7.2x9.2x7.9x7.8x6.2x8.9x6.9x

Average-Credit&Processors2.3%8.4%15.1x13.5x15.5x13.9x21.8x18.9x22.6x19.4x

Average-InformationServices4.5%8.0%18.4x16.7x18.8x17.0x32.1x28.2x32.1x28.4x

Note:EXPN.LiscoveredbyAnveshAgrawalwithanindustryviewin-line,ADP.OandPAYX.OarecoveredbyJamesFaucettewithanindustryviewofattractive

Note:TRI-EVadjustedforRefinitvstake($7pershare)

Pricingasof:Aug3,2023

Source:MorganStanleyResearch,CompanyData,andRefinitiv

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch

6

Update

Exhibit11:InfoServicesComps-AdditionalMetrics

MorganStanley-StandardizedComps

AnalyticsComps-AdditionalMetrics

Adj.EBITDA

UnleveredLevered

RevenueGrowthAdj.EPSGrowthMarginEV/SalesEV/FCFP/FCFNetLevgPEG

Ticker

Company

Rating

CY'23E

(%)

CY'24E

(%)

CY'23E

(%)

CY'24E

(%)

CY'24

(%)

CY'23E

(x)

CY'24E

(x)

CY'23E

(x)

CY'24E

(x)

CY'23E

(x)

CY'24E

(x)

LTM

(x)

CY'23E

(x)

CY'24E

(x)

CLVT.NClarivatePlcEW(0.4%)4.0%(6.6%)12.1%42.5%3.7x3.5x8.7x6.4x10.1x7.5x4.1xNA0.6x

FDS.NFactsetResearchSystemsIncUW11.2%7.1%12.7%12.2%38.5%8.5x7.9x29.3x27.2x26.5x24.1x1.6x2.1x2.0x

IT.NGartnerIncEW7.6%8.0%(4.6%)14.3%25.1%4.9x4.6x29.2x24.4x26.5x22.2x1.2xNA1.9x

MSCI.NMsciIncEW11.2%9.8%16.9%14.2%60.9%18.9x17.2x42.3x35.6x40.8x34.3x2.6x2.4x2.5x

TRI.NThomsonReutersCorpEW3.1%3.7%30.3%6.0%39.1%8.5x8.2x26.6x29.3x31.8x29.7x1.7x1.2x5.9x

VRSK.OVeriskAnalyticsIncEW(7.5%)7.3%0.5%14.5%54.8%13.8x12.9x33.8x31.3x37.3x33.9x2.4x74.9x2.4x

MCO.NMoody'sCorpEW7.6%8.6%13.0%13.1%44.7%11.5x10.6x42.2x33.5x39.9x31.3x2.1x2.7x2.4x

SPGI.NS&PGlobalIncOW11.2%7.0%11.5%14.8%47.9%11.0x10.2x33.4x27.5x32.9x25.2x1.6x2.7x1.8x

Average-Subscription-BasedInfoServices5.5%6.9%9.2%12.6%44.2%10.1x9.4x30.7x26.9x30.7x26.0x2.2x14.4x2.4x

EXPN.LExperianPlc

OW

5.8%7.6%6.9%10.3%35.5%5.4x5.0x27.4x23.8x26.5x22.7x1.7x3.7x2.3x

EFX.NEquifaxInc

EW

2.8%12.7%(10.0%)23.1%33.9%5.7x5.0x40.9x26.6x38.1x24.0x3.2xNA1.0x

TRU.NTransunion

OW

4.1%10.0%0.4%17.8%37.0%5.3x4.8x25.4x21.5x34.0x19.2x3.8x50.9x1.1x

FICO.NFairIsaacCorpNC10.0%11.0%17.1%19.8%54.1%15.1x13.6x35.0xN/A41.2x36.4x2.4x2.4xNA

DNB.NDun&BradstreetHoldingsIncNC3.0%4.6%(11.1%)12.6%39.8%3.6x3.4x8.8x8.2x13.0x11.8x3.8xNA0.8x

ADP.OAutomaticDataProcessingIncEW7.5%6.5%13.7%10.5%28.8%5.6x5.3x18.0x16.5x24.5x25.0x0.3x2.1x2.5x

PAYX.OPaychexIncEW7.1%6.2%10.8%8.2%44.9%8.6x8.1x24.4x23.5x27.8x26.0x-0.3x2.6x3.1x

FA.OFirstAdvantageCorpNC(3.9%)8.9%(0.9%)12.1%31.9%3.0x2.8x12.1x11.0x12.8x11.6x0.7xNA1.0x

STER.OSterlingCheckCorpEW(0.4%)9.0%4.1%20.5%26.9%2.1x1.9x12.8x9.9x10.9x8.5x2.3x2.5x0.4x

HRT.NHirerightHoldingsCorpNC(9.6%)7.3%(46.0%)25.0%24.9%1.9x1.8x7.5x5.9x11.1x8.1x3.3xNA0.2x

Average-Credit&Processors2.6%8.4%(1.5%)16.0%35.8%5.6x5.2x21.2x16.3x24.0x19.3x2.1x10.7x1.4x

Average-InformationServices3.9%7.7%3.3%14.5%39.5%7.6x7.0x25.4x21.3x27.0x22.3x2.1x12.5x1.9x

Note:EXPN.LiscoveredbyAnveshAgrawalwithanindustryviewin-line,ADP.OandPAYX.OarecoveredbyJamesFaucettewithanindustryviewofattractive

Note:TRI-EVadjustedforRefinitvstake($7pershare)

Pricingasof:Aug3,2023

Source:MorganStanleyResearch,CompanyData,andRefinitiv

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit12:DiversifiedBusinessServicesComps

MorganStanley-OtherBusinessServices-StandardizedComps

TickerCompany

Rating

Share

Price

EquityValue

EnterpriseValue

EV/EBITDAPrice/Earnings

ConsensusMethod

StandardizedPostSBC

Consensus

Method

Unlevered

FCFYield

LeveredFCFYield

CY23ECY24ECY23ECY24ECY23ECY24ECY'23ECY24ECY'23ECY'24E

Food&SupportServices

ARMK.NAramarkEW38.079,99517,71711.6x10.3x13.0x11.4x21.0x15.7x8.5%4.3%12.2%4.6%

CPG.LCompassGroupPlcOW25.6444,39848,27312.4x11.3x14.2x12.9x22.2x21.3x3.9%3.2%4.0%3.2%

EXHO.PASodexoSa++100.7914,86316,1408.7x8.0x8.7x8.0x15.0x15.5x6.8%4.7%6.9%4.8%

Food&SupportServices10.9x9.8x12.0x10.7x19.4x17.5x6.4%4.1%7.7%4.2%

Uniforms

Aramark

CintasCorp

ARMK.NCTAS.O

11.4x21.4x

13.0x23.4x

9,995

51,389

17,717

54,220

12.2%2.6%

38.07496.91

21.0x36.8x

15.7x32.9x

11.6x23.4x

10.3x21.4x

4.6%3.2%

4.3%3.0%

8.5%2.4%

EW

EW

UNFUnifirstCorpNC165.923,1023,10210.8x10.0x10.8x10.0x24.2x22.1x2.2%3.7%2.0%3.5%

..........

Uniforms153x139x157x143x273x236x44%37%56%38%

RepublicServicesInc

OW149.1247,316

RSG.N

13.9x13.2x13.9x13.2x27.5x25.5x2.4%3.2%2.6%3.5%

Waste

WasteConnectionsInc

WasteManagementInc

59,190

43,100

80,858

WCN.NWM.N

12.5x

16.2x

13.6x

17.3x

36,296

65,615

140.69160.94

27.8x33.6x

25.2x30.0x

13.6x17.3x

12.5x16.2x

4.4%3.8%

4.0%3.5%

3.4%2.9%

3.8%3.3%

OWEW

GFL.TOGflEnvironmentalIncNC33.0912,21718,42312.3x11.3x12.7x11.9x39.3x35.1x4.4%5.3%4.1%6.0%

CWST.NCasellaWasteSystemsIncNC80.954,6925,24217.9x15.2x17.9x15.2x76.1x62.3x2.6%3.3%2.4%3.0%

Waste15.0x13.7x15.1x13.8x40.9x35.6x3.1%3.8%3.3%4.1%

Media&CPGServices/AdAgencies

ADV.OAdvantageSolutionsEW2.598402,8326.8x6.7x7.2x6.7x7.1x6.3x12.5%12.9%9.7%13.3%

IPG.NInterpublicGroupEW33.1912,77612,8817.1x6.8x7.1x6.8x11.4x10.9x9.3%9.3%8.6%8.6%

OMC.NOmnicomGroupEW81.9216,18520,1878.4x7.9x8.4x7.9x11.2x10.5x7.7%8.8%8.8%10.4%

WPP.LWPPNC10.7711,57617,8306.4x6.2x6.5x6.3x8.4x7.7x7.2%9.5%8.9%12.5%

PUBP.PAPublicisNC81.0720,61823,3037.4x7.1x7.4x7.1x10.9x10.5x8.6%8.9%9.3%9.8%

Media&CPGServices/AdAgenciesComps7.2x7.0x7.3x7.0x9.8x9.2x9.0%9.9%9.1%10.9%

HomeSecurity

ADT.NAdtIncEW6.335,75415,2916.0x5.6x6.4x7.3x17.5x11.4x7.4%7.7%9.6%9.3%

HomeSecurity6.0x