Kantar-中國(guó)快速消費(fèi)品：從動(dòng)蕩中緩慢反彈對(duì)2023年剩余時(shí)間持樂觀態(tài)度（英）

ChinaFMCG:SlowlyReboundingfrom

Turbulence

withOptimismfor

theRestof2023ChinaShopperReport2023,Vol.

1AuthorsandacknowledgmentsBruno

Lannes

isa

senior

partner

withBain&

Company’sConsumer

Products

andRetailpracticesandisbasedinShanghai.You

cancontacthimbyemailatbruno.lannes@.Derek

Deng

isapartnerwholeadsBain&Company’sConsumerProductspracticeinGreaterChinaandisbasedinShanghai.You

cancontacthimbyemailatderek.deng@.Jason

Yu

isthemanagingdirector

atKantarWorldpanel

Greater

China.You

cancontact

himby

emailatjason.yu@.Thisreport

isa

joint

e?ort

between

Bain&

Company

andKantarWorldpanel.

Theauthorsextendgratitudetoallwhocontributedtoit,especiallyMiyaWang,ChloeWang,andGigiLifromBain;andTinaQin,JenniferGe,Eva

He,andSallianHefromKantarWorldpanel.Thisworkisbasedonsecondarymarketresearch,analysisoffinancialinformationavailableorprovidedtoBain&Company,andarangeofinterviewswithindustryparticipants.Bain&CompanyhasnotindependentlyverifiedanysuchinformationprovidedoravailabletoBainandmakesnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,thatsuchinformationisaccurateorcomplete.Projectedmarketandfinancialinformation,analyses,andconclusionscontainedhereinarebasedontheinformationdescribedaboveandonBain&Company’sjudgment,andshouldnotbeconstruedasdefinitiveforecastsorguaranteesoffutureperformanceorresults.Theinformationandanalysishereindonotconstituteadviceofanykindandarenotintendedtobeusedforinvestmentpurposes.NeitherBain&Companynoranyofitssubsidiariesortheirrespectiveo?icers,directors,shareholders,employees,oragentsacceptanyresponsibilityorliabilitywithrespecttotheuseoforrelianceonanyinformationoranalysiscontainedinthisdocument.ThisworkiscopyrightBain&CompanyandKantarWorldpanelandmaynotbepublished,transmitted,broadcast,copied,reproduced,orreprintedinwholeorinpartwithouttheexplicitwrittenpermissionofBain&CompanyandKantarWorldpanel.Copyright?2023Bain&Company,Inc.Allrightsreserved.KantarWorldpanel|Bain&Company,

Inc.ChinaFMCG:SlowlyReboundingfromTurbulencewithOptimismfor

theRestof2023ContentsExecutive

summary.....................................................2The

full

report

........................................................10Alookbackat2022

....................................................10Thefirstquarterof

2023providesinsightintotheroadahead

.................

16What’s

next—andimplicationsforbrandsandretailers

......................

301KantarWorldpanel|Bain&Company,

Inc.ChinaFMCG:SlowlyReboundingfromTurbulencewithOptimismfor

theRestof2023ExecutivesummaryThisisthe12thconsecutiveyearthatwe

have

trackedtheshoppingbehaviorsofChineseconsumers.Ourcontinuingresearchhasgiven

usa

valuablelong-termviewacross106fast-movingconsumergoods(FMCG)categoriespurchasedforhomeconsumptioninChina.1

As

ineachofthepast11

years,we

analyzedthe26keycategoriesthatspanthefourlargestconsumergoodssectors:packagedfood,beverages,personalcare,andhomecare.2

Thisreportupdatesthe?ndingsfromourChinaShopperReport2022,Vol.

2,Still

Volatile—but

with

Signs

of

Hope,

andincludesKantarWorldpanelshopperbehaviordatafor2022andthe?rstfourmonthsof2023.ThisreportrecapsFMCGperformancein2022,duringwhichconsumerbehaviorremainedheavilyin?uencedby

theCovid-19pandemic.We

alsoexploreconsumertrendsfromthe?rstfourmonthsof

2023,

after

dynamicZero-Covid

policies

were

lifted.Thereport

includes

implicationsforconsumergoodscompaniesandretailers.2KantarWorldpanel|Bain&Company,

Inc.ChinaFMCG:SlowlyReboundingfromTurbulencewithOptimismfortheRestof

2023A

look

back

at

2022TwomajorwavesofCovid-19-relatedrestrictions—city-widelockdownsinthe?rsttwoquartersandaresurgenceofmassinfectionsinthefourthquarter—triggeredconsumptionslowdownin2022.Despitegrowthof2.8%inthe?rsthalfoftheyearandreaching6.3%inthefall,aninfectionspikeattheendof2022

causedvalue

drop

of3.9%

inthefourthquarter.

Asa

result,

theFMCG

marketlanded

ata

weak

annualgrowth

rate

in2022

(~1.5%),

withhyper

volatile

quarterlyperformance.Despiteoverallvolumegrowthinthe?rstthreequarters,FMCGvolumedropped1.2%inthefourthquarter—the

?rstdrop

sincethe?rst

quarter

of2020.

TheFMCG

average

selling

price(ASP)de?ationarytrendthatemergedin2020continuedthroughout2022andwasevenampli?ed,dropping2.5%vs.thepreviousyear’s~1%.

Theconsumerpriceindex(CPI)increased2%in2022,andbrandscontinuedtoexperiencerisinginputcosts.However,consumersshowedalowerwillingnesstopay

forFMCGproductsgiventhemountingeconomicpressures.Category

update:

Packaged

food

and

home

care

dominated

growthWithinthefourmajorsectors,packagedfoodledthegrowthwitha6.3%increase,itshighestinfouryears.Thisgrowthwasdrivenbyboth

volume(3%)andASP

(3.2%).Covid-19restrictionsfueledashifttowardat-homedining,

stockpilingbehaviors,andanincreaseinhealthconsciousness.Amongthepackagedfoodcategories,instantnoodleledthesectorgrowthwithan~20%valuejump,whichpeakedinthefourthquarter.Seasoningproductslikesoysauceandnutritionsupplementsalsosawsurgesindemand.Homecareexperiencedhealthygrowthin2022(5.6%),

drivenbothbyvolume(4.4%)

andASP(1.1%).Heightenedattentiontohygienefueleddemandforcategoriessuchasfacialtissue(11.8%)andtoilettissue(7.1%).

ASPgrowthwasdrivenbypriceincreasesofraw

materialsandmanufacturer-ledpremiumization.BeveragewasespeciallyvulnerabletoCovid-19disruption,resultinginweakannualgrowthof1.1%.Afterastrong10.4%

recoveryinthethirdquarter,beverageexperiencedavaluedropof6.8%

inthefourthquarter.

Theannualvalue

growth

was

largelydriven

by

volumeincreases(5.1%),

whileASPcontinuedtodeclinethroughouttheyear(-3.8%).Juice,ready-to-drinktea,andfunctionaldrinksledthesector’sgrowth—ahealthypayo?

formanufacturers’innovationsinhealth-relatedconcepts.Wine/foreign

spirit,andChinese

spiritcategories

reported

signi?cantASP

decline

dueto

lowerconsumptionandconsumers’reducedwillingnesstopay

duringthepandemic.3KantarWorldpanel|Bain&Company,

Inc.ChinaFMCG:SlowlyReboundingfromTurbulencewithOptimismfor

theRestof2023Personalcarecontinueditsdecliningtrendthroughouttheyear.

Afterasigni?cantdropof10.9%

inthefourthquarter,itendedtheyearwithatotalvaluedeclineof4.8%.Thesteepdeclinewascausedbyaseverereductioninoutdooroccasionsandsocialactivities,especiallyduringvirusoutbreaks.TheASPdecline(-4.9%)drovethesector’sdropinvaluein2022,eventhoughvolumegrowthwas?at.Makeupcontinueditsdecline(-18.1%)inboth

volume(-14.2%)andASP

(-4.6%).Makeupdemanddroppedsigni?cantlywhensocialoccasionswerehaltedandmask-wearingmandateswereine?ect.Meanwhile,

skincare

andtoothbrush

valuesdeclined

3.8%

and7.8%,

respectively.Thosewere

mainlydriven

byASPdecline,

causedby

?ercecompetition

andconsumers’

lower

willingnessto

pay.Personalhygiene-relatedcategories

likepersonalwash

andtoothpaste

performedrelatively

wellin2022,

achievingvalue

growth

of2.5%

and1.2%,respectively.Thetwo-speedgrowth

phenomenonwe

?rst

identi?edin2016

isstill

happening.

High-speedcategories

were

largelyconcentratedinfood,

beverage,

andpersonal

hygiene,

whilemanynonessen-tialandreplaceablecategoriesexperiencednegativegrowth.In2022,we

observedthatsomecategoriesthatwerehighlysensitivetoCovid-19,

likeinstantnoodle(20%)andhandwash(11%),changedfromlow-speedcategoriesin2021tohighspeedin2022,duetoincreaseddemandduringCovid-19outbreaks.Incontrast,fragrancereverseditsperformance(-11%)in2022.Meanwhile,somecategoriessaw

consistenthigh-speedgrowthoverthepastfewyears,suchasicecream(CAGR

2019–22

at~20%)andcarbonated

soft

drinks(CAGR

2019–22

at~15%).

Theirgrowth

was

driven

by

an“indulgence

mentality”

amongconsumers,

aswell

asfastinnovationsintroducedbydomesticplayers.Anotherexampleisfacialtissue(CAGR2019–22at~10%),whichbene?tedfromheightenedconsciousnessaroundhealthandhygiene.Ontheotherhand,yogurthasbeena

low-speed

category

forthreeyears,

withCAGR

2019–22

down

10%,asitlost

itscompetitivevaluepropositionagainstsubstituteproductssuchasmilkandjuice.Channel

update:

E-commerce

growth

slowed,

while

O2O

soaredIn2022,

overalle-commerce

growth

slowed

in2022,ending

the

year

with

only

2%

growth.

The

channelwas

challengedby

logistics

disruptions

duringlockdowns

andnationwide

infections,

aswell

asheightenedregulatoryscrutiny

ofkeyopinionleaders

andthelivestreaming

industry.

Smallerfor-mats

picked

upmomentum.Conveniencestoresgrew

7%,

andgrocerygrew

8%,

thanksto

thepre-dictability,convenience,andsafetyofshoppingatnearbylocationsduringthepandemic.Online-to-o?ine(O2O)boomedduringCovid-19resurgenceperiods,3

asconsumerswantedtostockupandful?llinstantneedswhileavoidingtra?candexposureinphysicalstores.As

aresult,FMCGO2Osaw

18%valuegrowthin2022overall,andchannelshareincreasedfrom5.7%

to6.7%

oftotalFMCG.4KantarWorldpanel|Bain&Company,

Inc.ChinaFMCG:SlowlyReboundingfromTurbulencewithOptimismfor

theRestof2023Brand

update:

Large

brands

and

domestic

brands

pulled

aheadIn2022,brandcompetitionremaineddynamic.Amongthe26categorieswe

tracked,thetop?vebrandsregainedshare

ina

fewcategories

thatlong-tail/insurgentbrandshadwon

over

intheprevioustwoyears.Thechangeissimilartowhatwe

observedinthe?rstquarterof2020.

Duringturbulenttimes,largerbrandstendtobemoretrustedbyconsumersandhave

moreresilientsupplychains,distributionnetworks,and?nancialresources.Thecategorieswherethetop?ve

brandsregainedshareincludedfacialtissue,instantnoodle,andready-to-drinktea,etc.Similarto

previous

years,

onaggregate,

local

brandsfurther

gainedshare

from

foreign

brandsinthese

26

categories,mainly

through

volume

gains,whileASP

decreased

forboth

local

andforeignbrands.Interestingly,

in2022,

foreign

brandshadsigni?cantASP

decreases

ina

fewcategorieswithclear

trade-downtrends,

suchasskincare

andtoothbrush.The

first

quarter

of

2023

provides

insight

into

future

trendsThe?rstquarterof2023revealedpromisingsignsofamildeconomicrebound—andanindicationofwhatbrandsshouldexpectfromconsumersfortherestoftheyear.

China’s

GDPgrowthinthe?rstquarter(4.5%)andoverallretailsalesgrowth(10.5%

inMarch,excludingauto)bothexceededexpectations.Domestictra?candcateringsalesalsobouncedbackquicklyinthe?rstquarterof2023.However,fullrecoverytakestime,andcertainconcernspersist.TheConsumerCon?denceIndexshowedasteadyupwardtrend,buthasyettoreturntopre-pandemiclevels.Additionally,theunemploymentrateremainedaround5.5%,withyouthunemployment(16–24-year-olds)atahighlevel.Overall,theFMCGindustryreboundedfromthefourthquarterof2022andreportedvaluegrowthof1.9%

inthe?rst

quarter

of2023,

driven

bymodestvolume

growth

(2.7%),

despitea

decline

inASP(-0.8%).AlthoughtheFMCGgrowthrateinthe?rstquarterwasmoderate,itwasverydi?erentonamonth-by-monthbasis.For

example,

Januarywas

severely

a?ectedby

a

Covid-19

outbreak.

Thetrajectory,

however,

drives

optimism

forconsumptioninthecomingmonths.InApril,theFMCGmarketachieved

anexciting

growth

at5.1%,

inlinewithpre-Covid-19levels.

Overallretail

sales,excludingauto,alsosaw

impressivegrowthinAprilat16.5%.Category

update:

Packaged

food

and

home

care

continued

to

grow,while

personal

care

andbeverage

showed

signs

of

recoveryAcrossallfourmajorsectors,homecarecontinuedtoleadgrowthat13%inthe?rstquarterandachievedthehighestquarterlygrowthsincethethirdquarterof2020,

thankstosustainedhealthawareness.Thesubstantialgrowthwasdrivenbybothvolume(9.5%)

andASP(3.2%).Nearlyallkeycategoriesgrewduetosustainedandheightenedattentiontohygieneandhealthneeds.Packagedfoodcontinuedtogrowat3.2%.GrowthwasmainlydrivenbyanASPincrease(5.2%),butvolumedropped2%.Categoriessuchasbiscuits,chocolate,

andcandyexperiencedvalue

drops

inthe?rstquarter

duetolessstockpilingbehaviors.Seasoningandnutritionsupplementsmaintainedtheirgrowthtrajectoriesdueto

ongoing

pandemic-era

cooking

habits

andhealth

needs.Moreover,

Aprildatashowed

thathomecareandpackagedfoodsustainedgrowthof12.2%and3.8%,

respectively.5KantarWorldpanel|Bain&Company,

Inc.ChinaFMCG:SlowlyReboundingfromTurbulencewithOptimismfor

theRestof2023Beverageandpersonalcareshowedsignsofrecoveryassocialgatheringsincreased.Beveragevaluegrew

1%

inthe?rst

quarter

of2023,

driven

by

volume

growth

of3.4%,

whileASP

declined

2.4%.Juice,ready-to-drinktea,milk,andpackagedwatercontinuedtoleadthesector’sgrowth.InApril,thesectorexperiencedfurthergrowthof3.3%,displayingitsreboundtrajectory.Inpersonalcare,

thetrend

ofdecliningvalue

slowed

inthe?rst

quarter

of2023(-2.6%),

withanincrease

involume

(4.1%)

thanksto

increased

social

occasions.

Most

categories,

suchashairconditionerandpersonalwash,

showed

clearvolume

growth

comparedwiththe?rst

quarter

of2022.

InApril,thesectorachieved

anexciting

growth

of5.9%,

providing

con?dencefortheupcoming

months.Categories

reflected

predictable

rebound

patternsWe

revisited

fourdistinct

category

rebound

trajectories

thatwere

identi?ed

in2020,

to

betteranticipatetrendsinthecomingmonths:?Continuous

booming

categoriesbene?tedduringCovid-19outbreaksinDecember2022andJanuary2023andachievedstablegrowthafterward.?Boom

and

stabilize

categoriesgrew

duringoutbreaksbutdidnot

sustain

theirgrowthpost-Covid-19.??V-shape

and

stabilize

categorieswere

hithard

by

thepandemicbutreboundedafterward.L-shape

categories

declined

duringandafter

theoutbreakandtook

longerto

recover.Inthisstudy,

thefourdistinctpatternscontinuedintothe?rstquarterof2023,thoughthelevelofdivergencewaslesspronouncedandconvergencecamemorequickly.

Thiswasbecauseconsumers’stockpilingbehaviorsdecreasedasCovid-19-relatedrestrictionsrelaxed.Inaddition,asigni?cantincrease

inoutdoor

activities

drovea

sharper

rebound

ofcertain

relevantcategories

likeshampoo

andfabricdetergent.Zooming

into

the

continuously

tracked

categories,

the

majority

rebounded

similarly

to

2020,

but

somerespondeddi?erently,a?ectedbyfourfactors.First,Zero-Covid

policieswereliftedquicklyin2023,whichincreasedsocialoccasionsandenabledmakeupandwine/foreignspiritstoshiftfromanL-shapepatterntoaV-shape.Second,adeclineinbirthratessince2020shiftedbaby-relatedcategories(e.g.,infantformulaanddiaper)fromV-shapeandboom

andstabilize

patterns

in2020

toL-shape

in2023.

Third,category

education

andconsumerlifestyle

changesdrove

sustainable

growth

incategories

suchasjuice,

ready-to-drink

tea,andpetfood.Finally,

thelongepidemicoutbreakinthe?rst

quarterdrove

hygiene

andhealth-relatedcategoriessuchastoiletandfacialtissuetowardthecontinuousboomingpattern.6KantarWorldpanel|Bain&Company,

Inc.ChinaFMCG:SlowlyReboundingfromTurbulencewithOptimismfor

theRestof2023Pricing

update:

Pricing

trends

across

categories

further

divergedInthe?rst

quarter

of2023,

theFMCG

marketcontinued

its

de?ationarytrend

thatstarted

inthebeginningof2020.

However,thede?ationwasnotuniformacrossallcategories,channels,orbrands.Facing

continuouslyrisinginputcosts,

FMCG

brandscontinued

to

pushforpriceincreases

tomanagetheirmargins.However,overallASPcontinuedtodecline.Alignedwithour?ndingsin2022Vol.

2,generallytheoverallASPdeclineinthe?rstquarterof2023continuedtobedrivenbytradedowns(i.e.,consumerschoosingalower-pricedproduct)andshiftstoonline(i.e.,consumerschoosingalower-priced

channel).Promotionrates

abateda

bitcomparedwithprevious

years

forboth

onlineando?inechannels.Brandsacross

allsectors

increased

like-for-like

pricinginthe?rst

quarter

of2023,

butconsumersreacteddi?erently

to

thepriceincreases

across

sectors.

Inthepackaged

foodsector,

consumerssigni?cantlydecreasedpurchasevolumeasstock-upneedseasedafterCovid-19,butchosemore

ex-pensive

products

thanksto

risinghealthawareness.

Inthebeveragesector,

consumers

opted

formore

value-for-moneyproducts.

Consumers

continuedto

increase

purchasevolume

inhomecaredueto

theircultivated

health

andhygiene

needs,

whileopting

forcheaper

products.

Althoughde-mandforpersonalcare

products

increasedpost-Covid-19,

consumers

switchedto

discountedon-linechannelstocopewithrisingproductpricesandoptedformorevalue-for-moneyalternatives(i.e.,tradingdown),orsimpli?edtheirdailyroutine.Looking

atthe26

tracked

categories,

pricingtrends

becamemore

divergent.

Some

categoriescontinuouslypremiumized

withanASP

increase,whileothers

sustained

anASPdecline.Continuous

premiumization:

Categories

inthispattern

succeeded

withstronginnovations,typically

by

addressingconsumers’

risinghealth

andhygiene

needs.For

instance,

juicecontinuedto

premiumize

inthe?rstquarter.

Thepremium

juicesegmentachieved

25%volume

growth,

andASPincreased7%,thankstosuccessfulpremiuminnovationssuchasnewprocessingmethods(e.g.,NFC)andnew?avors(e.g.,Chinesemedicine-basedproducts).Instantnoodlealsoinnovatedwithhealthyproductsthatwereenabledbynewtechnologies(e.g.,freeze-drying).

Thepremiumsegmentofinstant

noodle

experienced

27%

volume

growth,

whilethemidrange

andmass

segment

saw

volumedeclinesof9%and27%,respectively.Continuous

ASP

decline:

Categories

inthispattern

often

facetrade-downbehaviors

orlowerdemand.Thetoothbrushcategoryisrepresentativeofthis.Inrecentyears,anincreasingnumberoflocal

insurgent

brandsentered

themarketando?eredmore

a?ordableelectronic

products.

Theintensi?edcompetitionpushedpremiumbrandstolaunchmoreeconomicproductlines.As

a

result,acrossallpricetiers,themasssegmentoftoothbrusheshadthehighestvolumegrowthat4%,

witha9%ASP

decreaseinthe?rstquarter.Theotherexampleisinfantformula,whichexperienceda

sharpdeclineinvalueduetolowerbirthratesinthelastfewyears.To

remaincompetitive,brandsadoptedlowerpricingstrategiesthroughincreasedpromotionalactivities.Inthe?rstquarterof2023,nearly50%ofthemarketvaluewassoldonpromotion.7KantarWorldpanel|Bain&Company,

Inc.ChinaFMCG:SlowlyReboundingfromTurbulencewithOptimismfor

theRestof2023Channel

update:

E-commerce

reaccelerated,

club

warehouses

soared,

and

O2O

sustained

growthTheliftofCovid-19policiesfurthershapedthechanneldynamicsintheFMCGindustry.Inthe?rstquarter,somehistoricaltrendscontinued,forexampletheriseofsmallerformats(e.g.,conveniencestoresandgrocery),theclubwarehouseformat,andO2O.

Ontheotherhand,weobservedchangescomparedwithprevious

years.

For

example,e-commerce

went

from

idlegrowth

in2022

to

acceleratedgrowthinthe?rstquarterof2023,andanampli?eddeclineofhypermarket.Inthe?rstquarterof2023,consumersacceleratedtheirshifttowardonlinechannels,reachingagrowth

rate

of9%—upfrom

2%in2022,

thanksto

Covid-19infections

subsiding

andtheresumption

oflogistics.All26categoriesshowedpositiveonlinepenetrationgrowthinthe?rstquarterof2023vs.the?rst

quarter

of2022,

whereasmore

thanhalfofthecategories

experienced

onlinepenetrationdeclinesin2022.Amongthee-commerceplatforms,intereste-commerceplatformslikeDouyin（抖音）andKuaishou（快手）

ledthegrowth.Douyingainedsigni?canttractioninsalesvalueandover-tookPinduoduo,becomingthethird-largeste-commerceplatformbysalesvalueinFMCGinthe?rstquarterof2023.Hypermarkets

experienced

anaccelerateddownward

trend

inthe?rst

quarter,

witha

12%

decreaseinsalesvalue.

Thedipwas

a

combined

result

ofa

reduction

inthenumber

ofstores,lower

tra?cdueto

thepandemic,

andoperational

challenges

faced

bysome

keyretailers.However,

theclubwarehouseformat(ahypermarketsubtype

inKantarWorldpanel’s

classi?cation)enjoyed

stronggrowth

(38%)dueto

a

growingnumber

ofshoppers

andincreased

shoppingfrequency.O2Oshoppinghabitshave

beengrowingoverthepastfewyearsandcontinuedtothrive,evenafterCovid-19-related

policieswere

relaxed.

FMCG

O2Owitnessedremarkable

value

growth

inthe?rstquarter(16%).Thegrowthwasmainlydrivenbyincreasedpurchaseintensity(e.g.,highershoppingfrequency

orhighervalueper

trip)andgainsfrom

non-O2O

channels,particularlyo?inehyper-markets,supermarkets,andminimarkets.Acrossdi?erentsectors,O2Oismoreimportantinthefoodcategory(packagedfoodandbeverage)thannonfood

(personal

care

andhomecare).

However,nonfood

showed

more

exciting

growth

(~30%).Nonfoodgrowth

was

driven

by

a

fewfast-growingcategories(e.g.,

facialandtoilettissue)

andanincrease

incross-purchasingbehaviors.Compared

withtraditionalonlineplatforms,O2Ohasadvantages

innecessity

categories

withinstant

needs

suchasfrozen

food,

facialtissue,

andtoilettissue,thankstofastdelivery.Meanwhile,unliketraditionale-commerce,wherefoodandbeveragesigni?cantlylaginpenetration,categoriessuchassoysauceandmilkhave

surpassedsomepersonalcareandhomecarecategoriesinO2Openetration.Amongthefourtypes

ofO2Oplatformswe’ve

tracked

closely

since2020,

o?ineretailersandcommunitygroupbuysdrovegrowththroughaggressiveexpansionledbytheleadingplayers.ThehorizontalmarketplaceandverticalgroceryECshowedmorestablegrowthandevendeclined.8KantarWorldpanel|Bain&Company,

Inc.ChinaFMCG:SlowlyReboundingfromTurbulencewithOptimismfor

theRestof2023Out-of-home

consumption

reboundedThereleaseofpandemic-relatedrestrictionsusheredina

resurgenceofoutdooractivities.As

a

result,domestictra?candcateringsalesswiftlyreboundedfromthestartof2023.For

the11

tracked

keyfood

andbeverage

categories

inTier1

and2

cities4,

out-of-home

(OOH)consumptionsteadilyrecovered,obtaining4.6%

growthinApril.Restaurantenjoyedthehighestgrowth

(36%)

amongallchannels,thanksto

anincrease

inOOH

cateringoccasions.

As

a

result,on-premisesdrinkssuchasbeer,juice,andready-to-drinkteasaw

outstandinggrowthratesof11.0%,20.7%,

and19.0%,

respectively.What’s

next—and

implications

for

brands

and

retailersChina’s

recoveryfromits

year-end

Covid-19

outbreakandsubsequent

release

ofZero-Covid

policieshasproduced

theexpected

bounce

backineconomic

activities,

asevidenced

by?rst

quarter

GDPgrowth

andretailsales.

Economists

expect

therecoveryto

accelerate

inthesecond

half,

particularlyonthebackofa

lowbase

ofcomparison

inthesame

period

in2022.Consumption

willremain

thekeyfac-tor

ofeconomic

growth,

withconsumercon?denceshowinga

steadyupticktrend.

Furthermore,thegovernment

hasalready

implementedstimulus

policiesto

boost

consumptionandisexpectedtoannouncemore.Following

theeconomicrecovery,

theFMCG

industry

continuesto

demonstrateresilience,

asconsumers,brands,andretailersareadaptingtoever-changingcircumstances.TheFMCGrecoverytrend

islikely

to

continueover

thecomingmonths,repeatinga

fewtrends

from

the?rst

quarter

oftheyear.Implications

for

brandsInanevolvingmarketwithvolatileshiftsinconsumerneedsandpreferences,it’s

vitalthatbrandsclosely

monitorshifts

inconsumerneeds,

aswell

ascompetitors’moves,so

theycanoptimizeportfolioandpricingstrategiestomaximize