可持續(xù)發(fā)展的綠色核算國(guó)際和世行經(jīng)驗(yàn)-Sustainabi

GreenAccountingforSustainableDevelopment可持續(xù)發(fā)展的綠色核算InternationalandWorldBankExperience國(guó)際和世行經(jīng)驗(yàn)MagdaLoveiSectorManagerEnvironmentEastAsiaandPacificRegionTheWorldBank1Outline提綱Introduction前言Internationalexperience國(guó)際經(jīng)驗(yàn)TheWorldBank’sAdjustedNetSavingsmethodology世行經(jīng)過調(diào)整的凈儲(chǔ)蓄方法AdjustedNetSavingsinAsia亞洲經(jīng)過調(diào)整的凈儲(chǔ)蓄Lookingahead未來發(fā)展21–Introduction前言Assetaccountingforsustainabledevelopment可持續(xù)發(fā)展的資產(chǎn)核算3Aconditionforsustainabledevelopment可持續(xù)發(fā)展的一個(gè)條件Society’srealwealthisnotdecliningovertime社會(huì)真正財(cái)富是不隨時(shí)間而下降的Realwealthconsistsof真正財(cái)富包括：Producedassets生產(chǎn)的資產(chǎn)(buildings,machines,vehicles,etc.)accountedforintheNationalAccountsOtherassets其它資產(chǎn)(expandingthemeasureofwealth)NaturalresourcesHumancapitalSocialcapital4Empiricalevidence:Theimportanceofhumanandsocialcapitalascomponentofwealth實(shí)例：人力和社會(huì)資本在財(cái)富中的重要程度5Empiricalevidence:Largedifferenceinthecompositionofnaturalcapitalacrosscountries實(shí)例：自然資本各國(guó)差異很大62–Internationalexperience國(guó)際經(jīng)驗(yàn)Examplesofaccountingforassetdepreciation資產(chǎn)折舊核算案例7Capturingrentsfromnaturalresources–ExamplefromNorway獲取自然資源的租金－挪威案例SignificantamountsofrentsgeneratedbyoilindustrybutwithhighfluctuationsForestsgeneratesubstantialrents–butrentsaccruetoprivatesector(whichisalsosubsidized)Oilandgas–Resourcerentsandtaxes(1985-1996)Forestry–Resourcerentsandtaxes(1985-1995)8Assessingthe“cost”ofequity–ExamplefromNorway凈資產(chǎn)的費(fèi)用評(píng)估－挪威案例Fisheries–Resourcerentsandsubsidies(1985-1995)NorwaychosetosupportsmallscalefisheriestopromoteregionaldevelopmentFisheriesdonotproducepositiverentsNorevenuecollectionHighlysubsidizedindustry9Reinvestingrentsintootherformsofcapital–ExamplefromBotswana把租金再投向其他形式的資本－波斯瓦那案例Mineralrevenuesare35%ofGDP礦產(chǎn)收入占GDP的35％Governmenthasdeveloped“SustainableBudgetIndex“(SBI)政府開發(fā)了可持續(xù)預(yù)算指數(shù)SBImeasureshowmuchofthemineralrevenuesareconvertedtootherformsofassets(includingexpendituresoneducationandhealth)Governmentguideline:norevenuefromminingshouldbeusedforcurrentexpenditure103–TheWorldBank’sAdjustedNetSavings(ANS)Methodology世行經(jīng)過調(diào)整的凈儲(chǔ)蓄方法Anindicatorforsustainability一個(gè)衡量可行性的指標(biāo)11Adjustednetsavings(ANS)經(jīng)過調(diào)整的凈儲(chǔ)蓄A(yù)NSmeasuresthe‘changeintotalwealth’overtimeSignandmagnitudeofANSarekeyindicatorsofsustainabilityDecompositionofANSenablesidentificationofpolicyrecommendationsNegativeANS(i.e.declineoftotalwealth)callsfor:ImprovefiscalandmonetarypolicyInvestmoreinhumancapitalChangepoliciesandencourageoverexploitationofnaturalresourcesImprovepoliciesthatencouragebetterpollutionmanagement12Adjustednetsavings經(jīng)過調(diào)整的凈儲(chǔ)蓄

%ofGNI2002占國(guó)民總收入的百分比200213Empiricalevidence實(shí)例LowincomecountrieshavethelowestANSLowerincomelowersavingsLowerincomehigherdependenceonnaturalresourcesEastAsiaandpacifichavethehighestANS(becauseofveryhighgrossnationalsaving)MiddleEastandNorthAfricahavethelowestANS(becauseofoilextraction)14Implicationsforsustainabilityacrossregions可持續(xù)性的區(qū)域比較MiddleEastandAfricaareonanunsustainablepath–LatinAmericahaslowsavingsrates–EastAsiabenefitsfromhighNationalSavings(2002)15Starkdifferencesbetweentraditionalandadjustednetsavings傳統(tǒng)和調(diào)整后的凈儲(chǔ)蓄的差異Sub-SaharanAfrica-AdjustedNetSavingrevealsadifferentstoryfromtraditionalmeasuresofsaving164–AdjustednetsavingsinAsia亞洲調(diào)整后的凈儲(chǔ)蓄Evidenceandresearchneeds17Comparinggrossandadjustednetsavings儲(chǔ)蓄總量和調(diào)整后的凈儲(chǔ)蓄比較18Indonesia–naturalresourcesexploitationhasincreasedwiththecrisis印度尼西亞－自然資源的開發(fā)已經(jīng)增加危機(jī)19Malaysia–educationexpenditureisanimportantpartofinvestments馬來西亞－教育是投資的重要部分20China–asuccessfulstorybutwithmoretolearn中國(guó)－一個(gè)成功的故事但仍有很多需要學(xué)習(xí)215–Lookingahead未來Challengesandopportunities挑戰(zhàn)與機(jī)遇22Challenges挑戰(zhàn)EnvironmentalaccountsaremostlyusedinindustrializedcountriesAssetaccountsareseldomusedtoassesssustainabilitySustainabilitycanonlybemeasuredifallassetsareincluded(e.g.needtodomoreworkonsoilerosion,groundwater,fisheries)ControversyovermeasurementofmonetaryvalueshasmadeitmoredifficulttoattractpolicymakersInternationalcomparisonsareimportantbutmethodologiesdifferwidelyacrosscountries(exceptANS)23OpportunitiesforChina中國(guó)的機(jī)遇HighpotentialtogobeyondcurrentassetaccountingtoanalyzenationallyrelevantissuesOngoingeffortson‘costofenvironmentaldegradation’canbeexploitedforimprovedassetaccountingUseresearchresultsonlocalairandwaterpollutionUseinformationonsoilerosionAccesstointernationalexperienceandexamplestomultilateralinstitutions24Concludingremarks“Greening”nationalaccountsisanimportantsteptowardmeasuringsustainabilityandinformingpolicymakingAlsoimportanti