PitchBook 新興的可持續(xù)投資機會：培育蛋白質（英）

SeniorDataAnalyst

pbinstitutionalresearch@

Publishing

DesignedbyJoeySchaffer

PublishedonSeptember15,2023

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EmergingSustainable

InvestingOpportunities:CultivatedProtein

Howcultivatedproteincancreateadoublebottomlineoffinancialreturnsandpositivesocialand

environmentalimpact

PitchBookisaMorningstarcompanyprovidingthemostcomprehensive,most

accurate,andhard-to-finddataforprofessionalsdoingbusinessintheprivatemarkets.

PitchBookData,Inc.

JohnGabbertFounder,CEO

NizarTarhuniVicePresident,Institutional

ResearchandEditorial

DanielCook,CFAHeadofQuantitativeResearch

InstitutionalResearchGroup

Analysis

AnikkaVillegas

Analyst,FundStrategies&

SustainableInvesting

anikka.villegas@

Insightsdevelopedincollaborationwith

AlexFrederick,Sr.Analyst,EmergingTechnology

atPitchBookData.

Data

Keytakeaways

AlyssaWilliams

?Cultivatedproteinmaypresentananswertothequestionofhowtofeedagrowingglobalpopulationwhilereducingtheclimateimpactofanimalagriculture.

?Thefinancialreturnpotentialofthisopportunityissupportedbystronganticipatedconsumerdemand,solidROIpotentialwithrespecttoIPandtechnological

development,andgovernmentfundingandregulatorysupport.

Contents

?Cultivatedproteinhasthepotentialtocreatepositiveenvironmentalimpactsintheareasofclimatechangeandpollutionmitigationandbiodiversitylosspreventionaswellassocialimpactsintermsofhelpingtoaddressworldhunger,improve

animalwelfare,andcreatequalityjobs.

Keytakeaways

1

Introduction

2

Financialreturnpotential

3

Environmentalandsocial

5

impactpotential

1

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EmergingSustainableInvestingOpportunities:CultivatedProtein

Introduction

VC,oftenservingastheincubatorofemergingtechnologies,iswell-positioned

toinvestwithpositivesocialandenvironmentalimpactgoalsinmind.VCscan

usetheirexpertiseandresourcestofosterbusinessesthathavethegreatest

potentialforbothimpactandreturns,especiallywithaneyetowardcompaniesforwhichsuccessnecessarilymarriesthetwo.Thisfacthasnotgoneunnoticedby

VCs,whichcomprise42.7%ofthetotalcountofimpactfundsraisedsince2007.1Yetthelandscapeofpotentialopportunitiesisexpansiveandrapidlyevolving,

makingitdifficulttokeeptrackofwhichhavethegreatestfinancial—andimpact—returnpotential.

Emergingopportunitiesoftengobeyondtheinvestmentareastraditionally

associatedwithsustainability,suchassolarenergyorelectricvehicles,to

encompassahostoflesser-knowntechnologies.Evenwithinthefamiliarthemes,therearenicheinvestmentopportunitiesdeveloping.Inthisanalystnoteseries,

weexploreopportunitiesacrossemergingtechnologyverticalssuchasfoodtech,mobilitytech,andcarbon&emissionstechthatwebelievearepoisedtoperformwellinthenextdecade,bothfromfinancial-returnandimpact-returnperspectives.Indoingso,wehopetoguideVCspursuingthe

“doublebottomline”

throughthe

complexlandscapetothemostfruitfulopportunities.

Foreachanalystnoteintheseries,insightsaredevelopedincollaborationwitha

PitchBookEmergingTechnologyanalystcoveringtherelevantvertical,usingtheir

subjectmatterexpertiseandpreviousresearch,aswellassomeexternalresources,toinformourperspectiveonthespace.Wediscussthereturnpotentialofthe

opportunityanditsmajordriversaswellastheinvestmentrisksandobstacles

itfaces.Wealsoexploreitssocialandenvironmentalimpactpotential,howthe

opportunityfitsintovariousIRIS+Impactthemes,2andpotentialmetricstohelp

quantifythoseimpacts.Ultimately,theaimofthisresearchistogiveVCsandtheirLPsabetterunderstandingofhowtheopportunitiesalignwiththeirreturnand

sustainabilitygoalsandprovidecompaniesoperatinginthesespacesasenseofhowtooptimizeandcommunicatetheirsocialandenvironmentalimpact.

Thisanalystnotefocusesoncultivatedprotein,whichismeat,seafood,dairy,andeggproductscreatedinlabsusingcultivatedanimalcellsratherthanthrough

slaughter,harvesting,orfishing.3Whilealternativeprotein,suchastheplant-basedproductscreatedbyImpossibleFoodsorBeyondMeat,iswell-knownamong

investorsandconsumersalike,cultivatedproteinisasubsetofthiscategoryonthecuttingedgeoffoodtech.Since2013,136VC-backedcompanieshaveenteredthecultivatedproteinspace,with$4.8billionininvestment.

1:Formoreimpactfundraisingdata,checkoutour

Q42022PitchbookAnalystNote:ImpactInvestingUpdate

.

2:TheImpactReportingandInvestingStandards(IRIS+)framework,createdbytheGlobalImpactInvestingNetwork(GIIN),isanindustry-leadingmethodologyaidinginvestorsinsortingimpactinvestmentsbythedifferenttypesofimpacttheyaretargeting.YoucanlearnmoreabouttheIRIS+categories,whattheyinclude,andwhattheydonot,in

“IRIS+ThematicTaxonomy,”GlobalImpactInvestingNetwork,April2023.

3:Forin-depthinformationoncultivatedprotein,downloadour

Q32021PitchBookAnalystNote:ReinventingMeat.

2

$1.6$1.2

EmergingSustainableInvestingOpportunities:CultivatedProtein

CultivatedproteinVCdealactivity

82

73

49

32

22

274

$0.2$0.2$0.2$0.1

$0.2$0.2$0.2$0.4

510

34

$0.5

20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023*

Dealvalue($B)Dealcount

Source:PitchBook?Geography:Global*AsofAugust21,2023

Financialreturnpotential

Thecurrentstandardmethodsofanimalproteinproductionareresource-intensiveandenvironmentallyunsustainable.Astheglobalpopulationcontinuestogrow,

demandforanimalproteinwillexceedwhatcanfeasiblybesupportedbythose

methods.Simultaneously,governmentsareattemptingtoreinintheircontributionstoclimatechange,includingthroughagriculture,whichcouldfurtherlimitthe

supplyofanimalprotein.Cultivatedproteinmaybepartoftheanswer,asit

allowsforincreasedanimalproteinproductionwithoutthesamemagnitudeofenvironmentalcost.

Thereturnpotentialofcultivatedproteiniscurrentlyhighbutexpectedtomoderate

slightlyadecadefromnow,sothisopportunityisworthconsideringsooner

ratherthanlater.Therearethreekeyfactorsinfluencingitsreturnpotential.First,

cultivatedproteinproductsareexpectedtoexperiencestrongconsumerdemand,

whichwillincreaseovertime.Demandforenvironmentallysustainableandcruelty-freefoodproductshasbeenclimbingoverthepastdecade.4Cultivatedprotein

isanticipatedtomimicthetasteandnutritionalprofileofanimalproductsmore

accuratelythanplant-basedalternatives,cateringtothepopulationmoreconcernedwithanimalwelfareandenvironmentalimpacts.Supportingdemandpredictionsisthefactthatotherplant-basedmeatalternativeshavehadsuccessonthemarket

already,andmanyofthesamedriversofdemandforplant-basedproteinwilllikelyexistforcultivateprotein.5Further,cultivatedproteinproviderswillprobablyhavetheupperhandinwinningovermeateaterscomparedtoplant-basedalternativeproducers,astheproducttheyaresellingisactuallymeat,evenifnotproduced

throughlivestockslaughter.

4:“ConsumersCareAboutSustainability—andBackItUpWithTheirWallets,”McKinsey&Company,SherryFreyetal.,February6,2023.

5:“BeyondMeat’sValueSoarsto$3.8BillioninYear’sTopUSIPO,”Bloomberg,DeenaShankeretal.,May2,2019.

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EmergingSustainableInvestingOpportunities:CultivatedProtein

Second,theintellectualpropertyandtechnologynecessarytoproducethese

products,oncedeveloped,hasasubstantialreturn-on-investment(ROI)potential,whichisexpectedtoincreasewithtime.Companiesdevelopingcultivated

proteinstartedoffbyusingoff-the-shelfmedtechorbiotechmachineryandhave

experienceddifficultiesscalingproductionduetotechnologicallimitations.However,asthecultivatedproteinecosystemgrows,weareobservingincumbentinputand

equipmentstartupsandincumbentsuppliersdevelopingproductlinesforthe

cultivatedmeatindustrythatwillultimatelyincreaseproductqualityandreduceinputandproductioncosts.

Lastly,cultivatedproteincompanieshavealreadyreceivedgovernmentfunding

andregulatorysupportinsomegeographies,includingtheUS,Singapore,andthe

Netherlands,amongothers,andthissupportisanticipatedtocontinuetogrowoverthenextdecade.6Beyondfoodsystemsustainabilityconcerns,governmentsacrosstheworldwererattledbytheRussia-Ukrainewaranditseffectsontheglobalfoodsupplychain,sparkingconversationsaroundfoodsovereigntyandsecurity.The

additionofcultivatedproteintoanationalfoodsupplydiversifies—andshortens—thesupplychain,whichcouldcreateacaseforgovernmentsubsidiessuchasthoseprovidedtothetraditionalmeatanddairyindustries.7Governmentfundingcan

helpimproveprofitmarginsatvariousstagesofgrowth,dependingonhowitis

administered,soitseffectonreturnpotentialwillvaryfromoneinitiativetoanother.

Ontheothersideofthecoin,therisklevelofthisopportunityiscurrentlymoderatelyhighbutexpectedtoadjusttoalow-to-moderatelevelinthenextdecade.There

arefourcentralrisksorobstaclestoconsider.First,thereareadoptionrisksdue

tothecostsofthecultivatedproteinproducts,whicharehighbecauseofthecost

ofproduction,andthusmaybepriceprohibitivetoconsumers.However,with

competition,input,andprocessimprovements,pricesarelikelytofall,becoming

lessofabarriertoadoption.Further,asclimate-change-inducedextremeweathereventsexacerbatecompetitionfortheinputsusedforhumanfoodcropsandanimalagriculturecrops,cultivatedproteinproductsmaybecomerelativelylessexpensivecomparedtotraditionalanimalprotein.

Second,thereareadoptionrisksduetothenoveltyor“unnaturalness”oftheproduct.Whileothertypesofalternativeproteinhavefoundsuccessinrestaurantsand

grocerystoresandamassedaconsumerfollowing,cultivatedproteinisstillnascentandrelativelyuntestedinthemarketplace.Onlytwocompaniesareapprovedto

sellthembytheUSDA,andbotharecarefullycontrollingconsumerexperiencesby

partneringwithcelebritychefsathigh-endrestaurants,sopracticalcasestudiesareverylimited.Resistancetogeneticallymodifiedorganisms(GMOs),highlyprocessed,andnonorganicproductshasgrowninrecentyears,asconsumersareconcerned

aboutthenegativehealthimpactstheymaypresent.Theseapprehensionswilllikelytranslatetocultivatedproteinaswell.Thisobstaclemayfurtherbefueledbyeffortstostokefearfromthetraditionallivestockindustrytoprotectitsmarketshare.

However,aswithGMOsandhighlyprocessedfoods,oncethenoveltywearsoff,theproductswillprobablybecomenormalizedtoalargeportionofthepopulation,aslongastheproductsare,infact,notharmfultoconsumers.

6:“GovernmentInvestmentintheOpportunitiesofAlternativeProteins,”EmergingProteinsNZ,September2022.

7:“SavingthePlanet:TheMarketforSustainableMeatAlternatives,”SutardjaCenterforEntrepreneurship&Technology,IndiraJoshietal.,November

10,2015.

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EmergingSustainableInvestingOpportunities:CultivatedProtein

Third,thereiscompetitiverisk,whichwillincreaseoverthenextdecadeasmore

playersenterthespace.Asoccurredwithotherplant-basedmeatalternatives,

thelandscapewillbecomemorecompetitiveonceconsumerdemand,andthe

necessarytechnologies,aremoreestablished.Becauseofthis,thereissomewhatofafirst-moveradvantageintermsofbrandrecognition,astherewaswithBeyondMeatandImpossibleFoods.Companieswilllikelyalsohavetocompetewith

productscreatedbybignamessuchasNestlé,8HormelFoods,Cargill,9andKellogg,whichhavealreadyexploredotheralternativeproteins,andsomeofwhichhave

alreadyinvestedincultivatedprotein.

Finally,thereisaregulatoryrisktocultivatedprotein.Generallyspeaking,theEU

hasmorestringentfoodregulationsandarduousapprovalsprocessescompared

totheUSandothergeographies.Cultivatedproteincompaniesmaynotbeableto

penetratealldesiredmarkets,giventheseobstacles.Asmorestudiesareconductedonthelong-termeffectsofcultivatedproteinconsumption,theregulatory

landscapemayeithergrowmorefriendlyormorehostiletowardtheseproducts.

Recentapprovalssuggestitwouldmorelikelybetheformerthanthelatter,butitisimpossibletopredictforcertain.

EnvironmentalandsocialimpactpotentialRelevantIRIS+categories10

Agriculture

Employment

Air

Water

Biodiversity&

ecosystems

Climate

Cultivatedproteinhasalow-to-moderatepositiveenvironmentalimpactpotential

atpresent,whichwilllikelyscaletoahighenvironmentalimpactpotentialadecadefromnowwhenadoptionhasincreasedandtechnologyimproved.Thesepotential

environmentalimpactsaremultidimensional.Intermsoftheprimaryimpacts,

animalagricultureisamajorcontributortoglobalgreenhousegasemissions(GHGs),comprisingapproximatelytwiceasmuchofthetotalGHGoutputofagriculture

andlanduseasplant-basedfoods.11InadditiontoCO2emissions,itcontributes

8

:“NestléExploresEmergingTechnologiesforCulturedMeat,”Nestlé,July13,2021.

9:“CargillInvestsinCulturedMeatCompanyAlephFarms,”Cargill,May14,2019

.

10:“IRIS+ThematicTaxonomy,”GlobalImpactInvestingNetwork,April2023.

11:“GlobalGreenhouseGasEmissionsFromAnimal-BasedFoodsAreTwiceThoseofPlant-BasedFoods,”NatureFood,XiaomingXuetal.,August

14,2021.

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EmergingSustainableInvestingOpportunities:CultivatedProtein

nitrousoxideandmethane,bothofwhichtrapmoreheatintheatmospherethan

carbon,makingthemmoreharmfulinthecontextofglobalwarming.Researchhasshownthatcultivatedmeatshavethepotentialtooutperformconventionalmeat

benchmarksonmostenvironmentalindicators,includingairpollutionandnitrogen-relatedemissions,anditscarbonfootprintissubstantiallylowerthanbeef.12Whencombinedwithrenewableenergy,cultivatedproteinisasustainablealternativetoallconventionalmeats.

Runofffromtraditionalfarmsalsoexacerbateswaterpollution,biodiversityloss,

andwetlandsdestruction.13Ascultivatedproteinproductionfacilitiesaregenerallyindoors,operatorshavecontroloverwastewater,effluents,andotherbyproducts,

andcanpreventreleasesthatcreatenegativeenvironmentalimpacts.Asproductionefficienciesimprove,renewableenergycontinuestoproliferate,andconsumers

adopttheseproductsinplaceofconventionalanimalprotein,theimpactsoftheseenvironmentalsustainabilityimprovementswilltheoreticallyintensify.Thebiggestobstaclestotheseoutcomesareadoptionrisk,asthescaleofimpactwillbe

substantiallysmallerifconsumerscannotorwillnotreplacetraditionalanimalproteinwithcultivatedonesforfinancialorotherreasons,andregulatoryrisks,asdiscussedinthefinancialreturnpotentialsection.

Fromasocialimpactperspective,cultivatedproteinhasthreemainopportunities,

whichtogetherhavealow-to-moderateimpactpotentialthatisexpectedtoescalatetoamoderate-to-highimpactpotentialinthenext10yearswithgreateradoptionandmoreefficientproduction.Thefirstmajoropportunityistofeedtheglobalpopulationmoresustainably.AccordingtotheUNFoodandAgricultureOrganization,theworldwillneedtoproduce60%morefoodtofeedapopulationof9.3billionpeople,14whichwearepredictedtoexceedby2050.15Ourpresentleveloffoodproductioncannotbemaintainedgivencurrentfarmingpractices,sosolutionssuchascultivatedproteincanhelppreventthenumberofpeoplegoinghungryfromcontinuingtogrow.Affordabilityisakeyfactorinthisequation,sopotentialimpactwillincreaseasaffordabilitydoes.

Thesecondmajoropportunityisthepotentialtovastlyimproveanimalwelfare.

Cultivatedproteinhastheobviouseffectofincreasingthesupplyofanimalprotein

withoutneedingtoslaughtermoreanimals,althoughsomeanimalcellsareharvestedforproduction.Additionally,itmayalsopushmoremeatproducersupthespectrum

towardbetteranimalwelfarepractices.Free-rangeandpasture-raisedproducts,

amongotherclassificationsrelatedtothehealthandwelfareoftheanimalsfromwhichthefoodisderived,alreadysellatapremium,somoreproducersmaygothisroute

astheymustcompetewiththearguablyharm-freelab-grownmeat.Theamountoftraditionalanimalproteinreplacedbycultivatedproteinwillhaveadirectrelationshiptothescaleofthisimpact,soitwillgrowasconsumptiondoes.

12:“Ex-AnteLifeCycleAssessmentofCommercial-ScaleCultivatedMeatProductionin2030,”TheInternationalJournalofLifeCycleAssessment,Pelle

Sinkeetal.,January12,2023.

13:“EnvironmentalImpactsofAgriculturalRunoff,”WisconsinDepartmentofNaturalResources,n.d.,accessedSeptember6,2023.

14:“FeedingtheWorldSustainably,”UNChronicle,JoséGrazianoDaSilva,June2012.

15:“WorldPopulationProjectedtoReach9.8Billionin2050,and11.2Billionin2100,”UNDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs,2017,accessed

September6,2023.

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EmergingSustainableInvestingOpportunities:CultivatedProtein

Thefinalsocialimpactopportunityisrelatedtothequalityofemploymentprovidedbycultivatedproteincompaniescomparedtofactoryfarms.Workingconditions

infactoryfarmsareoftendangerous,withhighemployeeinjuryratesaswellas

severementalhealthimpactsassociatedwithslaughterhousework.16Byeliminatingliveanimalhandlingandslaughterfromtheproductionprocess,cultivatedproteincompaniescreatesaferwork.Theimpactpotentialassociatedwiththisopportunitywillscaleascultivated-protein-produceroperationsdo,eitherreplacingsome

slaughterhousejobsorpreventingnewonesfrombeingcreated.

Otherthantheadoptionandregulatoryrisksalreadymentioned,oneofthemost

significantthreatstoachievingthesepositivesocialimpactsisuncertaintyaround

thehealtheffectsoflong-termcultivatedproteinconsumption.Feedingthehungry

isonlypositivelyimpactfulinsofaraswhatthehungryarebeingfedisnotharmfultothem.Whiletheoreticallysimilartotraditionalanimalproducts,extensivestudiesonitsimpactonhumanhealthhaveyettobeconducted.AlthoughregulatorssuchastheUSFoodandDrugAdministrationhavedeemedsomeformsoflab-grownmeatsafetoeat,industryparticipantsandconsumersalikewillbeawaitingconfirmationthattheseproteinalternativesarenutritionallycomparabletostandardanimalproducts.17

Potentialimpactmetrics18

?Poundsofcultivatedproteinsoldbythecompany

?TonsofCO2emissionspreventedbycultivatedproteinproductconsumptioncomparedtotraditionalanimalproducts

?Tonsofnitrousoxideemissionspreventedbycultivatedproteinproductconsumptioncomparedtotraditionalanimalproducts

?Tonsofmethaneemissionspreve