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BCG
EmissionsMandatesWillRemakeEurope’sTruckingIndustry
OCTOBER2023
Theswitchtozero-emissionvehicleswillbene?tthesector’soverallGDPand
employmentbutwillshiftvalueamongindustrysegments
Suppliers
GDP(€BILLIONS)
36
JOBS(MILLIONS)
13
Increasedbatterycellproduction
fromnewentrantswilldriveGDP
andjobgrowth
OEMs
23
–18
–35
Phasingoutinternalcombustion
engineproductionwilladdtoGDP
butreduceemployment
Infrastructureplayers
0.30.6
36
Buildingchargingnetwork
infrastructurehardwarewill
boostGDPandjobs
MHDT-relatedutilities
1122
2555
Shiftingfromforeignfossilfuelsto
domesticelectricitywillincrease
GDPandemployment
BasecaseBCGmarketperspectiveT&Ecase
Source:BCGanalysis.
Note:OEMforecastassumesthatautomakerswillnotmakestrategicchangestotheircurrentbusinessmodel.MHDT-relatedutilitiesforecastassumesthat,by2035,theshareofrenewablesfromtotalelectricityproductionwillexceed88%.MHDT=medium-andheavy-dutytruck;T&E=Transport&Environment.
+6
29
–2–1
16344
235
–11
–13
Overallimpact
+€7B
GDP
AdditionalGDPwillcomemainlyfromproductionofbatterycells
+3,000
jobs
NewjobsmakingEV
componentswill
compensateforlossofICE-relatedpositions
Supplierswillbene?tinGDPandjobs,buttheywillneednewcapabilitiestomakebatterycellsandrelatedcomponents
T&Ecase:ElevatedCO2standards(beyondthosesetbytheEUCommission)
GDP(€BILLIONS)
7
112
35
ICEengineperiphery
ICE
transmission
Batterycells
EDU
Power
electronics
2022
2035
Fuelcellstackandtank
EMPLOYMENT(THOUSANDS)
+3
238
2022ICEICEengineBatteryEDUPowerFuelcellstack2035
transmissionperipherycellselectronicsandtank
Source:BCGanalysis.
Note:Excludesbuses,coaches,andlight-dutyvehicles.EDU=electricaldriveunit;EV=electricvehicle;ICE=internalcombustionengine;T&E=Transport&Environment.Becauseofrounding,notallsumsofcomponentnumberslistedmatchthetotalsgiven.
+3
29
–4
–35
7
244
–42
Overallimpact
+€3B
GDP
Thehighervalue-addinthe
batterysegmentwill
compensateforlossesfromthedeclineinICEengines
–35,000
jobs
Despiteyieldinghigher
GDPvalue,batterymoduleandpackassemblywillbelesslaborintensive,
resultinginjoblosses
ForOEMs,thephaseoutofICE-poweredtruckswillleadtoanetlossof35,000jobs
GDP(€BILLIONS)
6
32
ICEengine
2022
Batterymoduleandpack
2035
EMPLOYMENT(THOUSANDS)
209
2022ICEengineBatterymodule
andpack
2035
Source:BCGanalysis.
Note:AssumesnostrategicchangestocurrentOEMbusinessmodel.ICE–internalcombustionengine.
GDP1
(€BILLIONS)
+0.6
1.7
EMPLOYMENT(THOUSANDS)
+6
17
Overallimpact
+€600M
GDP
Thebuildoutofcharginginfrastructurewilladd
signi?cantlytoGDP
+6,000
jobs
Thecontributionof
charginginfrastructuretoemploymentwilldependonBEVadoptionrates
ZEVinfrastructureplayerswillbene?tfromarapidbuildupofchargingstations
0.3
0.2
0.1
1.0
2022DepotsLoadingareasTruckstops2035
6
11
2022Infrastructureemployment2035
Source:BCGanalysis.
Note:2035numbersbasedonZEVadoptioninT&Escenario.BEV=battery-electricvehicle;T&E=Transport&Environment;ZEV=zero-emissionvehicle.Becauseofrounding,notallsumsofcomponentnumberslistedmatchthetotalsgiven.
1Includingconnectedandplatformservices,transportsolutions,andresale,reuse,andrecycling.
+22
38
EMPLOYMENT(THOUSANDS)
+55
143
Overallimpact
+€22B
GDP
Newdemandfor
electricityandhydrogen
willcompensateforlossesfromphasingoutdiesel
+55,000
jobs
Theneedtoprovide160
TWhofelectricityperyearwillcreatejobsinthe
electricitysector
MHDT-relatedutilitieswillreapthelargestgainsinjobsandGDP,mainlyfromdomesticallyproducedelectricity
GDP(€BILLIONS)
21
–4
5
16
2022DieselElectricityHydrogen2035
14
72
–31
88
2022DieselElectricityHydrogen2035
Source:BCGanalysis.
Note:Assumesthatrenewableswillproduce88%oftotalEuropeanelectricityproductionby2035.MHDT=medium-andheavy-dutytruck;TWh=terawatt-hours.
TheswitchtoZEVswillhaveanetpositiveimpactonEuropeanGDPandemployment,butitwillshiftbene?tsalongthevaluechain
GDP(€BILLIONS)EMPLOYMENT(THOUSANDS)
Suppliers
OEMs
ZEVinfrastructure
MHDT-relatedutilities
Total
2022
2035
29
+11%to+22%
32to35
29
+5%to+9%
31to32
<1
+32%to+63%
1to2
16
+75%to+144%
27to38
29
+22%to+43%
91to107
2022
2035
235
+1%to+2%
236to238
244
–7%to–14%
–226to–209
11
+29%to+58%
14to17
88
+29%to+63%
113to143
577
+2%to+5%
589to607
Source:BCGanalysis.
Note:CalculationofEuropeanGDP:e.g.,Truckvalue–VAT–non-Europeanvalueadded.CalculationofEuropeanemployment:e.g.,Employeespertruckcomponents–Shareofnon-Europeanproduction.MHDT=medium-andheavy-dutytruck;VAT=value-addedtax;ZEV=zero-emissionvehicle.
ImplicationsforplayersalongthevaluechainthatareattemptingtomastertheshifttowardZEVs
Suppliers
ThephaseoutofICEcomponentsshiftsvaluefromtraditionalICEtonew
ZEVsuppliers,withbatterycellsservingastheprimarydriveroffuture
value;inthehigh-adoptionscenario,batterycellcapacityofupto230GWhwillberequiredfor400,000BEVtrucksin2035
OEMs
Alongwithsuppliers,OEMswillexperiencethebiggestdisruptionstotheir
businessmodel.Theycouldloseupto35,000positionsrelatedtomakingICEandrequireasubstantialworkforcetransformationtowardnewcapabilities,alongwithbuildupofanewpartnershipecosystem.
ZEVinfrastructure
Infrastructureproviderswillneedtoestablishupto185,000chargingpoints
by2035andmustovercomehighimplementationhurdlestoensuresu?cientchargingnetworkcoverage
MHDT-relatedutilities
Energyprovidersneedtorampuprenewableelectricitygenerationfromlessthan1TWhin2022tomorethan160TWhin2035tofuel1.8millionBEV
trucks—amajordriverofpositiveeconomicimpactduetohighEuropeanvalue-addforrenewableelectricity(comparedtofossilfuels)
Prepareforradicalchangein
businessmodels
De?neapathwaytowardtheZEV
space,andstartthinkingabout
windingdownICEbusiness
Prepareforcapabilitytransformation
Conductacapabilityshifttoproduceand
marketZEVs,andseekbusinessmodel
extensionsandstrategicpartnershipsto
establishaZEVecosystem
Ensurebuildupofinfrastructure
components
Includesuchkeyelementsasaharmonized
chargingsystemandsu?cientconnection
tothegridatcorenetworkcorridors
Acceleratebuildupofrenewable
energygrid
Inadditiontoundertakingthisbuildup,
ensureseamlessaccesstocharging
locations(e.g.,truckstops,loadingareas)
Source:BCGanalysis.
Note:BasedonT&Ecase.BEV=battery-electricvehicle;GWh=gigawatt-hours;ICE=internalcombustionengine;MHDT=medium-andheavy-dutytruck;T&E=Transport&Environment;TWh=terawatt-hours;ZEV=zero-emissionvehicle.
100%=COSTFOREUROPEANPLAYERS
Non-EUplayerscouldenterthemarketviaimports,graduallymovingtowardlocalization
TOTALCOSTSCOMPAREDTOLOCALPRODUCTIONINEUROPE(%)
130
120
110
100
90
Importingfromhigh-costcountriessuchas
theUSputscompaniesatadisadvantage
comparedwithEuropeanincumbentsdueto
importtari?s(10%)andlogisticscosts(3–5%)
Alocalizedsupplychain
willgiveoutsidersacost
structuresimilartothat
ofincumbentOEMs
Importingfromlow-cost
countriessuchasChinaputs
companiesclosetoEuropean
incumbentsintermsofcosts
Increasedlocalizationyieldssigni?cantcostbene?ts
Low
VehiclesimportedafterassemblyLocalassemblywithimportedparts
Fullylocalizedproductionwithlocalassemblyandsupplychain
High
Degreeoflocalization
Source:BCGanalysis.
Threescenariosassesstheimpactofnon-Europeancompetitorsenteringthemarket
Assumption
GDP
(€billions)1
Employment(thousands)
Fullylocalizedproduction
Twoplayersmoveintothe
Europeanmarketandtransition
tofullylocalizedproduction
Negativeimpact2
Peak(2028)
2035
–1.6
–0.4
Negativeimpact2
Peak(2028)
–11.3
2035
–1.6
Localassemblywith
partiallocalsourcing
Twoplayersmoveintothe
Europeanmarketandassemble
vehicleslocally,using
componentsbuiltelsewhere
Negativeimpact2
Peak(2029)
2035
–1.8
–1.4
Negativeimpact2
Peak(2029)
–12.3
2035
–7.4
Import-basedcompetition
Competitorsimportfully
assembledvehicles
Negativeimpact2
Peak(2028)
2035
–1.2
–1.2
Negativeimpact2
Peak(2028)
–7.6
2035
–7.6
Source:BCGanalysis.
1IncludingonlysuppliersandOEMs.
2Throughtheyear2035;thenegativeimpactoftheimport-basedcompetitionscenariowillcontinuetoincreaseovertime.
–0.9
–0.7
–6.2
–5.1
–0.4
–0.6
–0.4
–0.3
–0.5
–0.5
–0.6
–0.6
–0.6
–0.6
–0.9
GDP
(€BILLIONS)
–0.1
–0.2
–0.7
–3.8–3.0
–4.1
–3.4
–4.0
–3.2
–5.9
–3.1–2.4
JOBS
(THOUSANDS)
–0.7
–1.3
–1.5
–4.8
Fullylocalizedproductionwillcauseamedium-termdipinGDPandemployment,followedbyamodestrecovery
Fullylocalizedproduction
SHAREOF
TOTAL
MARKET(%)
1
3
2
3
5
3
7
3
8
3
9
2
9
10
1
1
1
1
3
Localized(non-EUOEMs)
DomesticOEMs
Imported(non-EUOEMs)
–0.3
–0.1
–0.1–0.3
–0.7
–0.6
–1.6
–0.9
–0.5–1.9
–4.5
–3.6
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
OEMs
Suppliers
Sources:IHSAutomotive;BCGanalysis.
Note:Analysisoftheimpactfromnon-Europeancompetitorsisbasedonthemarketperspectiveofzero-emissionvehicleadoption.
Overallimpact
2028
–€1.6billion
2035
–€0.4billion
Duringtheimportpeak,GDP
willtemporarilydecreaseby
upto€1.6billion
2028
–11,300jobs
2035
–1,600jobs
Annualemploymentlosses
duringimportphaseupwill
peakat11,300in2028
0
6
2
4
2
4
6
3
6
2
7
1
7
7
1
SHAREOF
TOTAL
MARKET(%)
1
1
GDP
(€BILLIONS)
–0.6–0.4
–0.8
–0.6
–1.1–1.0–1.0
–0.4–0.4–0.4
–1.2–1.2–1.2
–0.6–0.6–0.5
–7.8
–3.3
–6.7
–3.7–3.1
–5.6
–4.7
–8.0
–2.8
–7.6
–7.0
–6.5
JOBS
(THOUSANDS)
–0.9
–1.6–1.3
–2.3
Localassemblywillleadtoasubstantialshort-termdipinGDPandemploymentifthesupplychainisnotlocalized
Localassemblywithpartiallocalsourcing
3
DomesticOEMsImported(non-EUOEMs)Localized(non-EUOEMs)
–0.1–0.3
–1.1
–0.7
–0.5–1.6
–7.5
–4.8
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
OEMs
Suppliers
Sources:IHSAutomotive;
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