美加房地產(chǎn)趨勢-英

2023UnitedStates

l

CanadaEMERGING

TRENDSINREAL

E

STATE?Emerging

Trends

in

Real

Estate

2023?A

publication

from:Emerging

Trendsin

Real

Estate?2023Contents1Notice

toReaders71

Chapter

3

Markets

to

Watch77

Grouping

the

Markets3479Chapter

1

Taking

the

Long

ViewNormalizing…

Still,

We’ve

Changed

SomeCapital

Moving

to

the

Sidelines—or

to

Other

Assets91

Chapter

4

Emerging

Trends

in

CanadianReal

Estate92

Costs

and

Capital:

A

Period

of

Price

Discoveryamid

Major

Shifts

for

Real

Estate94

ESG

Performance:

A

Critical

Issue

for

CanadianReal

Estate96

Housing

Affordability:

A

Growing

Challenge

forReal

Estate

Companies102

Property

Type

Outlook12

TooMuch

for

TooMany16

Give

Me

Quality,

Give

Me

Niche18

Finding

a

Higher

Purpose20

Rewards—and

Growing

Pains—in

the

Sun

Belt22

Smarter,

Fairer

Cities

throughInfrastructure

Spending107

Markets

to

Watch24

Climate

Change’s

Growing

Impact

on

Real

Estate26

Action

through

Regulation?112

Expected

Best

Bets

for

2023113

Interviewees33

Chapter

2

Property

Type

Outlook34

Multifamily:

A

Bumpy

Ride

and

aBumper

Crop117

SponsoringOrganizations45

The

Future

of

Single-Family

Housing48

Industrial/Logistics:

Strong

Fundamentals

Persistwhile

Capital

Markets

Adjust51

Office:

Desperately

Seeking

Clarity

aboutIts

Future63

Retail66

HotelsEmerging

Trends

in

Real

Estate?2023iEditorial

Leadership

TeamEmergingTrends

ChairsR.

Byron

CarlockJr.,

PwCW.

EdwardWalter,

Urban

LandInstituteHilda

MartinOnay

PayneAmber

SchiadaLuke

SmithCarl

WhitakerCody

YoungPwC

Advisersand

Contributing

ResearchersAaron

Sen*Abhi

JainDoug

StruckmanDylan

AndersonEdouard

Godin*Emily

PillarsEric

Desmarais*Eric

Lemay*Matthew

NicholsMatthew

RosenbergMax

WorobowMaxime

Lessard*Meredith

DeLucaMichael

LorangerMichael

Shea*Michelle

Zhu*Mike

Harris*Abhinav

Ravi*Adam

Modhtaderi*Adam

Rose*Alec

Watson*Alex

Howieson*Alex

SchraftEditors-in-ChiefAndrew

Warren,

PwCAnita

Kramer,

Urban

Land

InstituteSenior

AdvisersFred

Cassano,

PwC,

CanadaBraiden

Goodchild,

PwC,

CanadaMiriam

Gurza,

PwC,

CanadaFrank

Magliocco,

PwC,

CanadaChristopher

J.

Potter,

PwC,CanadaErnie

Hudson*Evan

CohenAuthor,Chapters

1

and

3Andrew

J.

NelsonAli

Abbas*Allan

ChengFrederic

Lepage*Gordon

Ashe*Graham

McGowan*Hannah

TamHenry

Zhang*Hilda

GarciaHoward

Quan*Isabelle

MorganItisha

JainAuthors,

Chapter

2Garrick

Brown,

RetailHeather

Belfor

and

Ahalya

Srikant,IndustrialLesley

Deutch,

Single-FamilyResidentialPaul

Fiorilla,

OfficeJohn

McManus,

MultifamilyResidentialMinh

Ngo*Alyssa

GillandAndrea

Ades*Andrew

AlpersteinAndrew

Popert*Andrew

SimiAnnabelle

Lafortune*Anthony

Di

Nuzzo*Ashley

Somchanh*Ashley

Yanke*Avery

PartiMonique

PerezMunezeh

WaldNadia

King*Natalie

Cheng*Nicholas

Mobilio*Nick

Ethier*Steven

Weisenburger,

PwC,

U.S.Project

Staff,

ULI

Center

forReal

Estate

EconomicsandCapital

MarketsJennifer

Milliken,

DirectorNolan

Eyre,

Senior

AssociateNick

WorrallJake

WileyNicole

StroudNik

Woodworth*Nikki

Mills*Avikar

Shah,

HotelsJano

Van

Wyk*Jasen

Kwong*Jason

KaplinULI

EditorialandProduction

StaffJames

A.

Mulligan,

Senior

EditorDavid

James

Rose,

ManagingEditor/Manuscript

EditorBrandon

Weil,

Creative

Director/Cover

DesignerDeanna

Pineda,

Muse

AdvertisingDesign,

DesignerAuthors,

Chapter

4Glenn

KauthPeter

KovessyAvi

ShahPeter

Harris*Benjamin

RoyBill

StaffieriJeffrey

TaverasJen

Lawson*Philip

Heywood*Philippe

Desrochers*Philippe

Pourreaux*Rabiya

Adhia*Rachael

FabianRachel

KleinRahim

Lallani*Renee

SarriaRicardo

RuizRichard

Martin*Richard

Probert*Rick

MunnRob

SciaudoneRobert

SciaudoneRon

Bidulka*ContributorsBilly

Ampatzis*Blake

BylBrendan

SmithBrendan

WhiteBrian

NessBryan

Allsopp*Calen

ByersCam

MonizCamille

Matute*Charles

CampanyChris

BaileyChris

DietrickChris

EmslieJeremy

LewisJessica

GordonJohn

CrossmanJohn

Matheson*John

Mormile*John

RosanoJonas

PittmanJonathan

ConnollyJonathan

Osten*Joseph

Moyer*Joshua

LevineJoshua

RubinJoy

Dutta*Paul

AngeloneLindsay

BruggerJohn

ChangMike

HargraveRoberto

HernandezDavid

LiggittCraig

Chapman,

Senior

Director,Publishing

OperationsBeth

Burnham

MaceChris

KavanaughChris

Vangou*Christine

AugustaChristopher

BaileyChristian

SeraoChristopher

EmslieChristopher

MillCindy

Wu*Claire

Bennet*Cosimo

Pellegrino*Dan

GenterDan

PiconeDan

RyanDaniel

D’Archivio*Daniel

LawsonDanielle

Aucoin*Danielle

Desjardins*Darren

Speake*David

BaldwinDavid

HughesDavid

SwerlingDavid

Whiteley*David

Yee*Justin

Belanger*Justin

Mukai*Kartik

Kannan*Keegan

LandryKen

Griffin*Kendall

BreshearsKhaldoon

Iqtait*Kristen

ConnerKristy

RomoRonnie

De

Zen*Ryan

DooleySabrina

Fitzgerald*Saket

Ayala*Emerging

Trends

in

Real

Estate

is

a

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September

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by

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and

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permissionof

the

publisher.Recommended

bibliographic

listing:PwC

and

the

Urban

Land

Institute:

Emerging

Trends

in

Real

Estate2023.

Washington,

D.C.:

PwC

and

the

Urban

Land

Institute,

2022.?Wesley

Mark*ISBN:

978-0-87420-481-0Derek

Hatoum*Donald

Flinn**Based

in

Canada.Matthew

Berkowitzii

Emerging

Trends

in

Real

Estate

2023?Noticeto

ReadersEmerging

Trends

in

Real

Estateedition,

and

is

one

of

the

most

highly

regarded

and

widely

read

forecast

reports

in

thereal

estate

industry.

Emerging

Trends

in

Real

Estate

2023,

undertaken

jointly

by

PwC?is

a

trends

and

forecast

publication

now

in

its

44th?and

the

Urban

Land

Institute,

provides

an

outlook

on

real

estate

investment

and

devel-opment

trends,

real

estate

finance

and

capital

markets,

property

sectors,

metropolitanareas,

and

other

real

estate

issues

throughout

the

United

States

and

Canada.Emerging

Trends

in

Real

Estate

2023

reflects

the

views

of

individuals

who

completed?surveys

or

were

interviewed

as

a

part

of

the

research

process

for

this

report.

Theviews

expressed

herein,

including

all

comments

appearing

in

quotes,

are

obtainedexclusively

from

these

surveys

and

interviews

and

do

not

express

the

opinions

ofeither

PwC

or

ULI.

Interviewees

and

survey

participants

represent

a

wide

range

ofindustry

experts,

including

investors,

fund

managers,

developers,

property

compa-nies,

lenders,

brokers,

advisers,

and

consultants.

ULI

and

PwC

researchers

personallyinterviewed

617

individuals,

and

survey

responses

were

received

from

more

than1,450

individuals,

whose

company

affiliations

are

broken

down

below:Private

property

owner

or

commercial/multifamilyreal

estate

developer:35%21%11%7%Real

estate

advisory,

service

firm,

or

asset

manager:Private-equity

real

estate

investor:Bank

or

other

lender:Construction/construction

services/architecture

firm:Homebuilder

or

residential

land

developer:Investment

manager/adviser:7%6%5%REIT

or

publicly

listed

real

estate

property

company:Private

REIT

or

nontraded

real

estate

property

company:Other

entity:3%2%2%Throughout

this

publication,

the

views

of

interviewees

and/or

survey

respondentshave

been

presented

as

direct

quotations

from

the

participant

without

name-specificattribution

to

any

particular

participant.

A

list

of

the

interview

participants

in

this

year’sstudy

who

chose

to

be

identified

appears

atthe

end

of

this

report,

but

it

should

benoted

that

all

interviewees

are

given

the

option

to

remain

anonymous

regarding

theirparticipation.

In

several

cases,

quotes

contained

herein

were

obtained

from

interview-ees

who

are

not

listed

in

the

back

of

this

report.

Readers

are

cautioned

not

to

attemptto

attribute

any

quote

to

a

specific

individual

or

company.To

all

who

helped,

the

Institute

and

PwC

extend

sincere

thanks

for

sharing

valuabletime

and

expertise.

Without

the

involvement

of

these

many

individuals,

this

reportwould

not

have

been

possible.Emerging

Trends

in

Real

Estate?202312Emerging

Trends

in

Real

Estate

2023?Chapter

1:

Taking

the

Long

ViewTaking

the

Long

View“Theshort-term

risks

are

real,

and

I’m

not

making

light

of

any

ofthem.But

if

you

havethelong

view,I

don’t

think

it’s

time

to

panic.”Interestrates

are

rising,

economic

clouds

are

darkening,

andExhibit

1-1

FirmPro?tabilityProspectsfor2023real

estate

deal

flows

are

sinking

because

buyers

and

sellerscannot

agree

on

pricing.

But

for

all

that,

most

commercial

realestate

professionals

we

interviewed

for

this

year’s

EmergingTrends

remain

reasonably

upbeat

about

longer-term

prospects.Not

everyone

is

as

sanguine

as

the

CEO

of

an

investmentmanagement

firm

who

provided

our

opening

quote,

and

therecertainly

are

some

troubling

risks

ahead

for

the

industry.

But

theconsensus

mood

seems

to

be

one

of

cautious

optimism

thatwe

will

ride

out

any

near-term

slump

and

be

well

positioned

foranother

period

of

sustained

growth

and

strong

returns.100%80%60%40%20%0%Good–excellentFairAbysmal–poorIt

makes

sense

that

real

estate

experts

would

take

the

long

viewgiven

the

nature

of

real

estate

assets:

buildings

take

a

long

timeto

conceive

and

develop.

Even

simply

acquiring

one

typicallytakes

more

time(and

effort)

than

buying

just

about

any

othertype

of

financial

asset,

and

they

are

usually

held

for

longer

dura-tions.

Still,

the

willingness

of

so

many

people

in

the

industry

tolook

beyond

some

of

the

cyclical

headwinds

is

striking.

Says

thehead

of

advisory

services

for

a

commercial

real

estate

(CRE)analytics

firm,

“The

recession—if

we

go

intoone—will

obviouslyimpact

some

markets

worse

than

others,

but

it’s

just

like

any-thing

else.

We’ll

look

back

in

10

years,

and

the

prices

that

seemastronomical

today

will

seem

like

a

bargain

10

years

from

now.”2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023Source:

Emerging

Trends

in

Real

Estate

surveys.●

●

Jobs

are

still

growing

strongly

while

unemployment

claimsare

attheir

lowest

levels

since

the

1960s;●

●

Home

prices

and

rentsare

atrecord

levels

and

are

stillrising;

and●

●

Consumer

spending—which

accounts

for

two-thirds

of

theeconomy—has

been

atleast

mildly

positive

every

month

thisyear

(through

July

2022).AnEconomicRorschachTestBy

one

popular

rule

of

thumb,

the

U.S.

economy

entered

arecession

in

the

first

half

of

2022,

having

sustained

two

straightquarters

of

(modestly)

declining

gross

domestic

product

(GDP).But

if

we

were

in

a

recession

atthe

time

of

writing,

it

would

be

amost

peculiar

one.

For

one

thing,

gross

national

income—theincome

side

of

the

national

accounts

ledger

that

is

supposedto

square

with

GDP—has

been

positive

over

this

same

period,suggesting

flaws

in

how

we

measure

economic

output.

Andother

economic

metrics

certainly

do

not

indicate

a

downturn:This

duality

likely

explains

why

the

National

Bureau

of

EconomicResearch—the

official

arbiter

of

business

cycles—has

notyet

called

this

period

a

recession.

That

is

not

to

suggest

thatall

is

copacetic

with

the

economy.

Key

barometers

like

thebusiness

outlook

indices

compiled

bythe

Institute

for

SupplyManagement

have

been

trending

downward

since

mid-2021,Emerging

Trends

in

Real

Estate?20233HigherforLongerExhibit

1-2

U.S.RealEstateReturnsandEconomicGrowthWith

interestrates

headed

“higher

for

longer,”

the

risk

of

adeeper,

full-fledged

recession

is

rising,

according

to

a

grow-ing

consensus

of

economists.

In

an

August

2022

survey

bytheNational

Association

of

Business

Economics,

only

a

quarterof

economists

were

even“somewhat”

confident

that

the

Fedcould

bring

down

inflation

to

its

target

range

without

causing

arecession.

Worrying

signs

out

of

Europe

in

early

autumn

andexpectations

of

soaring

heating

bills

this

coming

winter

add

tothe

gloomy

global

economic

outlook.50%40%6%NCREIF5%4%30%GDP3%20%2%10%1%0%0%2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023*–10%–20%–30%–40%–50%–1%–2%–3%–4%–5%–6%These

conditions

would

be

problematic

for

property

markets:slowing

or

falling

economic

growth

dampens

tenant

demand,while

higher

interestrates

raise

the

cost

of

developing

oracquiring

properties.

Both

factors

would

cut

returns

and

reducevalues.

Indeed,

rising

interestrates

and

uncertainty

over

futuremarket

conditions

are

already

killing

deals

since

sellers

have

notbeen

ready

tocapitulate

to

buyers’

growing

demands

for

priceconcessions,

as

we

discuss

in

our

capital

markets

trend.NAREIT

Equity

REIT

IndexSources:

NCREIF,

NAREIT,

Bureau

of

Economic

Analysis/U.S.

Department

of

Commerce,PwC

Investor

Survey.*NCREIF/NAREIT

and

GDP

projections

for

2022

and

2023

are

based

on

the

PwC

InvestorSurvey.evenif

they

are

not

technically

in

the

recession

range.

Declinesin

consumer

confidence

over

the

last

year

have

been

evensharper.

All

of

these

positive

and

negative

factors

together

painta

kind

of

a

Rorschach

test,

where

observers

can

draw

their

ownconclusions

as

to

the

strength

of

the

economy.New

HorizonsStill,

not

all

recessions

are

alike,

and

most

economists,

as

wellas

Emerging

Trends

interviewees,

expect

any

recession

to

berelatively

short

and

shallow.Reflecting

the

view

of

several

CREleaders

we

interviewed,

a

senior

executive

with

a

global

devel-opment

and

investment

firm

said,

“My

gut

says

we’re

going

tohave

a

recession,

but

it’s

going

to

be

relatively

mild

comparedto

some

of

the

more

severe

recessions

we’ve

had.

I

don’t

seeanything

like

the

2008

economic

downturn

going

on.”The

Endofthe

BeginningBut

there

is

one

issue

on

which

our

interviewees

agree:

“The

exis-tential

risk

for

the

real

estate

economy

right

now

is

that

Fed

actionin

response

topersistent

inflation

will

tip

us

intoa

recession,”

saysa

senior

partner

with

a

leading

advisory

firm.

But

can

the

FederalReserve

Bank

tame

inflation

without

breaking

the

economy?Moderating

inflation

rates

this

summer

led

many

to

believe

thatthe

worst

was

over

and

that

the

Fed

could

soon

ease

up

its

con-tractionary

monetary

policy.

Indeed,

the

consensus

of

experts

weinterviewed

this

summer

was

that

the

Fed

would

cease

tighteningbythe

end

of

2022

and

start

cutting

rates

again

in

mid-2023.One

leading

CRE

economist

went

so

far

as

to

say,

“I

thinkwe’re

going

into

what

I

would

say

is

a

healthy

down

cycle.

It’s

acleansing,

Schumpeterian

idea

that

every

so

often,

economies—property

markets

included—need

to

cleanse,

and

it

washes

outbad

ideas,

it

washes

out

unrealistic

unsustainable

values.”That

reset

presents

new

opportunities,

evenas

it

introducesuncertainty.

Says

the

CEO

of

a

development

company,“I

thinkthis

is

a

moment

in

time.

And

when

I

look

back

historically,and

Idid

not

act

in

these

moments

in

time,

I’ve

always

regretted

it.”That

sentiment

now

appears

optimistic.

“Inflation

is

going

to

bea

little

stickier

than

people

think,”

said

an

investment

bankingexecutive

we

interviewed

during

the

summer,

whose

viewsturned

out

to

be

more

prescient.

Sentiment

started

changing

inlate

August

when

Fed

Chairman

Jerome

Powellgavehis

annualspeech

to

fellow

central

bankers

affirming

the

Fed

view

that

infla-tion

is

not

nearly

under

control,

jolting

markets.

Any

remainingdoubt

about

that

was

quashed

by

the

official

Fed

commentaryaccompanying

their

September

rate

announcement

projectingthat

rates

would

keep

rising

through

2023.

As

Winston

Churchillfamously

cautioned

after

the

British

army

won

a

critical

WWIIbattle,

the

victory

marked

“not

the

end,

not

even

the

beginningof

the

end,

but,

possibly,

the

end

of

the

beginning.”The

10

emergingtrends

thatweexpectfor2023

andbeyondfollow:1.

Normalizing●

●

Property

market

fundamentals

are

“normalizing”

as

somemarkets

weaken

due

to

diminishing

pandemic

tailwinds

andthe

potential

for

a

cyclical

economic

downturn.4Emerging

Trends

in

Real

Estate

2023?Chapter

1:

Taking

the

Long

View●

●

Some

property

sectors

may

cool,

including

residential

andindustrial,

while

others

may

heat

up

tohistorical

averagelevels,

such

as

hotels

and

retail.Exhibit

1-3

Importance

ofIssues

forRealEstatein20231Noimportance35ModerateimportanceGreatimportance●

●

Returns

and

prices

of

most

assets

are

declining

as

cap

ratesrise

and

transaction

volumes

fall

from

record

levels,

whilerentgains

for

others

are

merely

moderating

as

demandreturnsto

a

more

sustainable

pace.Economic/?nancial

issuesInterest

rates

and

cost

of

capital

4.38Availability

of

quali?ed

labor

4.26Job

and

income

growth

4.24In?ation

4.15Defying

just

about

every

prediction

voiced

during

the

terrifyingand

uncertain

days

of

the

COVID-19

lockdown

that

began

inMarch2020,

U.S.

commercial

property

markets

actuallyembarkedon

a

remarkable

run,

with

some

of

the

strongestreturns,

rentgrowth,

and

price

appreciation

rates

ever

recorded.Capital

availability

3.88Global

economic

growth

3.42Tariffs/trade

con?icts

3.03State

and

local

taxes

3.02Federal

taxes

2.97Not

every

property

type,

however:

hotels

endured

their

worstand

most

sustained

downturn

in

memory,

while

offices

sufferedan

unprecedented

and

significant

cut

in

usage

of

space.

Andnot

every

market:

some

of

the

nation’s

strongest

gateway

mar-kets,like

New

YorkCity

and

San

Francisco,

experienced

sharpoutflows

of

residents,

businesses,

and

tenants

of

all

types.

Butoverall

and

across

much

of

the

United

States,

property

marketsfar

outperformed

expectations

and

historical

norms.Currency

exchange

rates

2.69Social/political

issuesHousing

costs

and

availability

4.21Geopolitical

con?icts

3.51Political

extremism

3.47Immigration

policy

3.47Epidemics/pandemics

3.45Climate

change

3.28And

now,

more

than

two

years

on,

property

investors

andmanagers

are

learning

anew

that

whopping

growth

and

profitseventually

fall

back

to

earth—a

“reversion

to

the

mean,”

to

usefinance

jargon,

or

simply

“normalizing,”

as

numerous

industryexperts

we

interviewed

put

it.

Some

looming

market

adjustmentswill

be

cyclical

due

to

the

weakening

economic

conditionsthat

most

economists

and

real

estate

professionals

expect,while

others

represent

more

of

a

return

to

normalcy

after

all

thepandemic-fueled

market

distortions.State/local

government

budgets

3.19Income

inequality

3.17Federal

budget

de?cit

3.12Higher

education

costs

2.94Diversity

and

inclusion

2.88Threat

of

terrorism

2.87Real

estate/development

issuesConstruction

labor

costs

4.51Construction

material

costs

4.48Construction

labor

availability

4.46Land

costs

3.97These

market

reversions

will

take

several

forms:

prices

of

mostassets

are

declining

as

cap

ratesrise

and

transaction

volumesfall

from

record

levels,

while

rentgains

for

others

are

merelymoderating

as

demand

returnsto

more

sustainable

levels.Perhaps

the

biggest

surprise

is

that

these

reversals

of

fortuneare

hitting

favored

property

sectors

like

multifamily

and

indus-trial.

That

does

not

necessarily

mean

the

market

corrections

willbe

painful.

In

many

cases,

recent

losses

in

property

value

willonly

trim

already

healthy

gains.

But

many

indicators

suggest

thatthe

(really)

good

times

may

be

over,

atleast

for

a

while.Operating

costs

3.72State

and

local

regulations

3.54Tenant

leasing

and

retention

costs

3.49NIMBYism

3.47Infrastructure/transportation

3.42Property

taxes

3.42Environmental/sustainability

requirements

3.19Risks

from

extreme

weather

3.02Health

and

wellness

features

2.99Municipal

service

cuts

2.89HousingSettoCoolA

finance

executive

with

one

national

homebuilder

told

us,“We’re

still

selling.

It’s

just

not

atthe

pace

that

it

was

sellingbefore

[thelast

two

years],

which

was

a

pace

that

you

don’t

typi-cally

see.

So,

the

markets

are

more

normalizing.”

Indeed,

homeHealth-

and

safety-related

policies

2.76Source:

Emerging

Trends

in

Real

Estate

2023

survey.Emerging

Trends

in

Real

Estate?20235rising

sharply—a

topic

we

explore

in

“Too

Much

for

Too

Many,”our

trend

on

housing

affordability.Exhibit

1-4

EmergingTrendsBarometer2023excellentThe“Fulfillment

Center

Pause”BuyThe

white-hot

industrial

market

also

seems

setto

cool

after

sev-eral

years

of

unprecedented

demand

growth

and

rentgains

thathave

pushed

rents

far

above

prior

records.

Growth

in

e-com-merce

is

slowing

and

giving

back

some

of

the

market

share

itcaptured

from

physical

retailers

during

the

pandemic.

Thelargest

warehouse

user

in

the

United

States,

has

delayedoccupying

numerous

completed

projects,

trying

to

sublet

many,as

it

slows

its

physical

growth.

Other

major

retailers

also

havebeen

cuttingback

their

distribution

expansion

plans.goodfairHoldpoorSellabysmalTo

b