【中信期貨有色與新材料】美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)1月會(huì)議紀(jì)要偏鷹有色反彈或承壓-日?qǐng)?bào)20240223 2024-2-23 92436 1

2024-02-232024-02-23為關(guān)注、收到或閱讀本報(bào)告內(nèi)容而視相關(guān)人員為客戶；市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。如本報(bào)告涉及行業(yè)分析或上市公司相關(guān)內(nèi)容，旨對(duì)任何主體進(jìn)行或不進(jìn)行某項(xiàng)行為的建議或意見，不得將本報(bào)告的任何內(nèi)容據(jù)以作為中信期貨所作的承諾或聲明。在任何情況下，任何主體依據(jù)本報(bào)告所進(jìn)行的任何作為或不作為，中信期貨不承擔(dān)任何責(zé)投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格：證監(jiān)許可【2012】669號(hào)330215中信期貨貴金屬指數(shù)中信期貨有色金屬指數(shù)280165230115A-23J-23O-23投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格：證監(jiān)許可【2012】669號(hào)330215中信期貨貴金屬指數(shù)中信期貨有色金屬指數(shù)280165230115A-23J-23O-23J-24報(bào)告要點(diǎn)一、行情觀點(diǎn)銅銅觀點(diǎn)：市場(chǎng)再度聚焦供應(yīng)，銅價(jià)領(lǐng)漲有色制銅價(jià)反彈高度。短期銅價(jià)預(yù)計(jì)維持震蕩整理走勢(shì)，繼續(xù)關(guān)注滬銅累庫(kù)節(jié)鋁間累庫(kù)幅度相對(duì)偏低，現(xiàn)貨表現(xiàn)較強(qiáng)，同時(shí)國(guó)內(nèi)現(xiàn)貨進(jìn)口虧損有所收窄，鋁價(jià)下鋅鋅觀點(diǎn)：海外鋅錠頻繁交倉(cāng)，鋅價(jià)震蕩承壓省市緩建或停建基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目，市場(chǎng)對(duì)后續(xù)基建需求預(yù)期有所下降看，鋅礦供應(yīng)偏緊邏輯逐步凸顯，鋅價(jià)底部逐漸夯實(shí)，短期受宏觀情緒鉛鉛觀點(diǎn)：替換需求即將邊際轉(zhuǎn)弱，雨雪天氣影響運(yùn)輸或遲緩累庫(kù)注碳酸鋰現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格波動(dòng)及鋰電替代相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)面鎳“HUAYOUgx”鎳品牌上市申請(qǐng)。此次申請(qǐng)品牌是來自廣/噸以上。不過于電鎳而言，當(dāng)前供應(yīng)強(qiáng)度尚大，市場(chǎng)資源不見明顯緊俏，海外元/噸-升水480元/噸。目前現(xiàn)貨成交復(fù)期于正月十五之后，需繼續(xù)觀察其強(qiáng)度，原料價(jià)格或有探漲可能，保宵節(jié)后不銹鋼市場(chǎng)恢復(fù)強(qiáng)度，鎳鐵成交價(jià)格或有補(bǔ)漲可能，不銹鋼雖利潤(rùn)錫錫觀點(diǎn)：基本面好轉(zhuǎn)，錫價(jià)高位震蕩工業(yè)硅觀點(diǎn)：需求仍然偏弱，硅價(jià)弱勢(shì)震蕩4.65%。通運(yùn)力下降，部分煤礦受氣候影響有短暫的生求兩重壓力，企穩(wěn)反彈需要看到工業(yè)硅庫(kù)存顯著去化，預(yù)期短期價(jià)格弱勢(shì)碳酸鋰觀點(diǎn)：供應(yīng)擾動(dòng)傳聞?dòng)绊?，鋰價(jià)沖高回落產(chǎn)。目前碳酸鋰價(jià)格收消息擾動(dòng)有所上漲，但其彈性依舊受需求壓制，目等待節(jié)后補(bǔ)庫(kù)證實(shí)或證偽，但若下游未見補(bǔ)庫(kù)，價(jià)格將震蕩偏弱運(yùn) 二、行情監(jiān)測(cè)上海物貿(mào)現(xiàn)貨升水7006005004003002000-100-2002023-05-092023-08-092023-11-092024-02-0940200-20-40-60-80-100-120-140LME銅現(xiàn)貨升貼水（0-3）2023-05-112023-08-112023-11-112024-02-11洋山港銅升水8060402002023-03-142023-06-142023-09-142023-12-146950069000685006800067500670002024/02/222024/02/202024/02/212024/02/191月期2月期3月期4月期5月期6月期7月期250000200000150000100000500000庫(kù)存注銷倉(cāng)單比例80%70%60%50%40%30%20%0%COMEX:銅:庫(kù)存500004500040000350003000025000200001500010000500002023-08-142023-11-142024-02-142023-05-222023-08-222023-11-222024-02-2240003000200010000SMM氧化鋁指數(shù)-平均價(jià)氧化鋁(貴州)-平均價(jià) 氧化鋁(山東)-平均價(jià)氧化鋁(河南)-平均價(jià)氧化鋁(山西)-平均價(jià)2023/042023/062023/082023/102023/122024/02澳洲氧化鋁FOB-平均價(jià)3803703603503403303203103002023/042023/062023/082023/102023/122024/02西澳-中國(guó)主要港口運(yùn)費(fèi)302520502023/042023/062023/082023/102023/122024/02氧化鋁進(jìn)口盈虧3002001000-100-200-3002023/022023/052023/082023/112024/02鋁現(xiàn)貨升貼水（上海物貿(mào)）5004003002000-100-2002023-04-282023-07-282023-10-282024-01-28LME鋁升貼水(0-3)6040200-20-40-60-802023-02-012023-07-012023-12-01保稅區(qū)溢價(jià)（美元/噸）8060402002023-01-302023-05-302023-09-302024-01-312024/02/222024/02/212024/02/20190001890018800187001860018500184001830018200181001月期2月期3月期4月期5月期6月期7月期LME鋁庫(kù)存（噸）LME注銷倉(cāng)單（噸） 注銷倉(cāng)單占比（%）8000007000006000005000004000003000002000001000000140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%2023/01/312023/05/312023/09/302024/01/31總庫(kù)存:LME鋁70000060000050000040000030000020000010000002022-06-082022-12-082023-06-082023-12-08總庫(kù)存:LME鋅注銷倉(cāng)單比例總庫(kù)存:LME鋅注銷倉(cāng)單比例3000002500002000001500001000005000002023-03-032023-06-032023-09-032023-12-0350%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%4003002000-100上海物貿(mào)鋅升貼水LME鋅升貼水(0-3)504030200-10-20-30-40-502023-03-012023-06-012023-09-012023-12-012023-02-172023-06-172023-10-172024-02-17滬鋅成交量（萬手） 滬鋅持倉(cāng)量（萬手，右軸）70605040302002023-02-162023-06-162023-10-162024-02-16120010008006004002000-200-400長(zhǎng)江有色-鋅期三廣東南儲(chǔ)-鋅期三上海物貿(mào)-鋅期三2023-02-172023-06-172023-10-172024-02-172000-100-200-300-400-500-600-700 1#鉛升貼水:最大值:上海金屬 1#鉛升貼水:最小值:上海金屬LME鉛升貼水LME鉛升貼水(0-3)806040200-20-40-602023-03-012023-06-012023-09-012023-12-012023-02-172023-06-172023-10-172024-02-17滬鉛成交量滬鉛持倉(cāng)量35302520502023-02-162023-06-162023-10-162024-02-16600長(zhǎng)江有色-鉛期三廣東南儲(chǔ)-鉛期三 上海物貿(mào)-600長(zhǎng)江有色-鉛期三廣東南儲(chǔ)-鉛期三 上海物貿(mào)-鉛期三2000001800001600001400001200001000008000060000400002000002023-03-032023-06-032023-09-032023-12-034002000-200-400-60050%45%40%2000001800001600001400001200001000008000060000400002000002023-03-032023-06-032023-09-032023-12-034002000-200-400-6000%2023-04-182023-07-182023-10-182024-01-1860050040030020006005004003002000平均價(jià):鎳升貼水:上海物貿(mào)14000120001000080006000400020000-2000-4000-60002023-05-042023-08-042023-11-042024-02-04LME鎳升貼水(0-3)0-50-100-150-200-250-300-3502023-05-172023-08-172023-11-172024-02-2024/02/222024/02/192024/02/212024/02/082024/02/201330001320001310001300001290001280001270001260001250001240001230001220001月期2月期3月期4月期5月期6月期7月期保稅區(qū)電解鎳溢價(jià)（美元/噸）2022-12-232023-04-232023-08-232023-12-23注銷倉(cāng)單比例LME鎳:庫(kù)存:合計(jì):全球注銷倉(cāng)單比例800007000060000500004000030000200001000008000070000600005000040000300002000010000002%00%15.015.014.013.012.011.010.09.08.07.06.0鎳鎳/不銹鋼2022-06-222022-12-222023-06-222023-12-22250000230000210000190000170000150000130000110000鎳豆價(jià)格硫酸鎳較鎳豆溢價(jià)20000100000-10000-20000-30000-40000-50000-60000-700002023-01-302023-05-302023-09-302024-01-3110000090000800001000009000080000700006000050000400003000020000100000490975049093593593593513900138501380013750137001365013600135501350013450134002024-02-222024-02-192024-02-212024-02-082024-02-201月期2月期3月期4月期5月期6月期7月期福建宏旺304-不銹鋼主力150010005000-500-10002022-11-082023-03-082023-07-082023-11-08500000450000400000350000300000250000200000150000100000500000期貨持倉(cāng)量:不銹鋼期貨成交量:不銹鋼2023-05-092023-08-092023-11-092024-02-09庫(kù)存期貨庫(kù)存期貨:不銹鋼:廣東:廣東炬申庫(kù)存期貨:不銹鋼:江蘇:玖隆物流庫(kù)存期貨:不銹鋼:江蘇:五礦無錫庫(kù)存期貨:不銹鋼:江蘇:中儲(chǔ)無錫2023/3/32023/5/32023/7/32023/9/32023/11/32024/1/3高碳鉻鐵價(jià)格（元/基噸） 不銹鋼企業(yè)利潤(rùn)（低價(jià)不銹鋼估算）10005000-500-10002023-02-232023-05-232023-08-232023-11-23滬錫市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)貨升貼水：平均價(jià)220000219500220000219500100002190008000218500600021800021750021700021750021700020002165000216000-20002022-07-212022-07-212022-12-212023-05-212023-10-21 2024-02-222024-02-212024-02-192024-02-202024-02-19LME錫:庫(kù)存:合計(jì):全球02022-07-252022-11-252023-03-252023-07-252023 期貨成交量:錫期貨持倉(cāng)量:錫4500004000003500003000002500002000005000002023-03-142023-06-142023-09-142023-12-14800006000040000200000中信期貨-工業(yè)硅現(xiàn)貨及盤面指標(biāo)日度監(jiān)測(cè)中信期貨-工業(yè)硅現(xiàn)貨及盤面指標(biāo)日度監(jiān)測(cè)變動(dòng)變動(dòng)通氧553華東期貨收盤價(jià)（元/噸）黃埔港天津港0多晶硅復(fù)投料0華東0致密料0黃埔港0菜花料0天津港0有機(jī)硅000硅油華東鋁合金ADC120黃埔港天津港硅粉000三氯氫硅價(jià)格（元/噸）0圖表48：工業(yè)硅基差-華東553單位：元/噸圖表49：工業(yè)硅基差-基差華東地區(qū)553價(jià)格工業(yè)硅主力合約結(jié)算價(jià)160001500014000130001200011000100002000150010005000-500-100030-Jun-2331-Aug-2331-Oct-2331-Dec-23工業(yè)硅主力合約結(jié)算價(jià)華東421-2000-期貨工業(yè)硅主力合約結(jié)算價(jià)華東地區(qū)421價(jià)格17000160001500014000130001200011000100005000-500-1000-1500-200030-Jun-2331-Aug-2331-Oct-2331-Dec-23100000800006000040000200001000008000060000400002000002021-08-04-20000-40000-60000-80000日度數(shù)據(jù)單位2024/2/222024/2/21差值變化率鋰輝石精礦(6%,CIF中國(guó))美元/噸91091000.0%鋰云母（Li2O:1.5%-2.0%）元/噸1210121000.0%鋰云母（Li2O:2.0%-2.5%）元/噸2085208500.0%SMM電池級(jí)碳酸鋰元/噸961509615000.0%SMM工業(yè)級(jí)碳酸鋰元/噸8880088750500.1%SMM電池級(jí)氫氧化鋰元/噸850508505000.0%SMM工業(yè)級(jí)級(jí)氫氧化鋰元/噸772007720000.0%期貨收盤價(jià)元/噸976509690075