WTM：2023年全球旅游報告

WTMGlobalTravelReport

InassociationwithTourismEconomics

Contents

01.Foreword0502.ExecutiveSummary0703.Global&RegionalSummary:202311 04.CountrySummary:20231705.DriversofDemand2906.2024Outlook3507.Risks&Opportunities4708.2033Outlook55

09.EvovingLeisureTravelPreferences63

3

01.Foreword

INTRODUCINGWTMGLOBALTRAVELREPORT

WorldTravelMarketbringstogetherthegloballeisuretravelcommunity;

providinginspiration,education,andsourcingfortravelprofessionalsseekingtobuilduniqueandcompetitiveworld-classtravelexperiences.

WTMsgoalistoguidetheindustrythroughchange,ensuringthe

communityisequippedwithinformationtoensurenoopportunityismissed.CommissioningtheWTMGlobalTravelReportsupportsourcommitmenttoprovidingattendeestoWorldTravelMarketwiththelatesttrendsshapingthetravellandscape.

Usinganexpansivedata-bankcoveringmorethan185countriesworldwideasdestinationsandasoriginmarkets,coveringallmajorbilateraltourismflowsintermsofvisits,nightsandspend,aswellasuniqueindustryinsights,thereportgivesacomprehensiveoutlookontourism.

JulietteLosardo

ExhibitionDirector

WorldTravelMarketLondon

"TheWTMGlobalTravelReportgivesa

voicetothechangingneedsoftravellers

anduncoversbehavioursandnewtrends

for2024andbeyond"

INTRODUCINGTOURISMECONOMICS

TourismEconomicsisanOxfordEconomicscompanywithasingular

objective:combineanunderstandingofthetravelsectorwithproven

economictoolstoanswerthemostimportantquestionsfacingtheindustry.

TourismEconomicsisproudtopartnerwithWorldTravelMarkettoproducethiscomprehensiveoverviewoftravelandtourism.Consumerscontinuetodemonstrateseeminglyinsatiabledemandfortraveldespiteacomplexanddynamicbackdrop,includingeconomicandsocialchallenges.Byexaminingthepastandlookingtothefuturewecanbetterunderstandtoday's

opportunities.Wehopethisreportsparksnewmeaningsandempowerstourismorganisationstomakebiggerandbetterdecisions.

DaveGoodger

ManagingDirectorEMEATourismEconomics

5

02.ExecutiveSummary

Leisuredemandleadingglobalrebound

Globaltravelhasrebounded

stronglyinthefaceofmountingeconomicpressures,includinginflation,higherinterestrates,andsqueezedhousehold

budgets.Despitethese

headwinds,thenumberof

internationaltripsin2023should

exceed1.26billion,equivalent

wouldsurpasshistoricaldemand

to86%ofdemandin2019.This

volumesinallbutthreeyears

priortothepandemic(2017-19).

Theleisuretravelrecoveryhasbeenstrongerthanforbusinessorothertravelandcurrently

accountsforaround60%ofalltourismtrips.Thenumberof

leisuretripstakenin2023will

bejust10%lowerthanduring

thepriorpeakin2019,andtherecoveryisevidentinmost

regionsworldwide,withthe

exceptionofAsia-Pacific.LeisuretraveltotheMiddleEaststandsoutforitspositiveperformance,aidedbysomelargeevents,withleisurearrivalsanticipatedtobe13%higherin2023thanin2019.

Travelspendingbyinbound

visitorswillexceedpre-pandemic

levelsinmostglobalregionsin

2023asaveragespendingper

triphasalsorisen,partlydueto

higherprices,butalsoproviding

largeeconomicbenefits.The

exceptionsaremostlyinAsia-

Pacificwheremanydestinations

wereslowertore-openafter

prolongedCOVID-19restrictions,

recoveringstrongly.

butthesearenowalso

Internationaltravelactivityisstilllaggingdomesticdemandwhichhassurpassedpriorpeaklevelsinallglobalregionsintermsof

nominalspendingin2023.ThisisparticularlynotablefortheMiddleEast(+176%)andtheAmericas(+31%),butsome

rebalancingisnowevident.

1.26

billion

numberof

international

tripsin

2023

Travelisbeingprioritised

Encouraginglyforthenear-term

outlook,travelisbeingprioritised

withinconsumerspending.The

shareofconsumerspendontravel

hastypicallyfallenduringprior

economicdownturnsorperiods

ofuncertaintywithagreater

prioritisationofmoreessential

spending.However,atpresent,we

areseeingsavingonotheritemsof

shareofwallethasregained2019

discretionaryspendingasthetravel

levelsamongadvancedeconomies.

Withindevelopingmarkets,there

spendingisresumingtheupward

isevidencethatthetravelshareof

trendthatcharacterisedthepre-

pandemicperiod.

Increasedspendingontravelis

partlymotivatedbysomerising

costs,drivenbyacombinationof

widerinflationarypressuresand

supplysidefactors.Forexample,

airfareshaveincreaseddueto

higherjetfuelprices,debtfinancing

requirements,andstaffingcosts.

Theseincreasingcostscombined

withpotentialdownwardshiftsin

consumeroutlookposeathreat

totheindustry,butthereare

currentlynoclearsignsthatcosts

areadeterrenttotripvolumes.

Evenamonglowerincome

households,travelvolumesmay

notbesignificantlyimpacted.A

recentpollamongUSconsumers

byMMGYhighlightedhighoverall

propensitiestotravelinthenextsix

months,althoughonly40%inthe

lowestincomeexpectedtotravel.

However,somelowercosttravel

optionsarebeingsought.

7

countryintermsofinternational

leisuretravelspending.

Continuedgrowthinto

2024

Rebalancingoftravelto

internationaldestinations

shouldcontinueoverthecomingyear,includinggreaterdiversityinchoiceswhichcouldspark

newopportunitiesforglobal

destinations.Thepaceofgrowthwillslowrelativeto2023as

leisuretravelvolumesconvergewiththeirpre-pandemiclevelsandpent-updemandhaslargelybeenrealised.

Mostdestinationsareexpected

toachieveincreasedinbound

tourismexpenditurein2024

comparedwith2019innominal

terms.ManyofEurope's

largestinboundmarketsare

expectedtoseesignificant

o1wiitnhsepnadin,cFontdo

Turkeyleadingtheway.These

threemajormarketsareset

toaccountfor30%ofthe

incrementalglobaltravelspend

between2019and2024.

However,internationalleisure

spendinginAsia-Pacificisstill

settolagpre-pandemiclevels

duetothelaterre-openingof

majormarketsandprotracted

recoveryincapacityand

sentiment.Keyinboundmarkets

intheregionsuchasChina,

ThailandandJapanareexpected

torecordsub-2019levelsof

spend.However,evenifChinais

lagging2019valuesofspending.

regaintopspotasthelargest

itshouldstillleapfrogtheUSto

Oldfavouritesandnewhotspots

Leisuretravelgrowthvaries

considerablyacrosscountriesinfluencedbythesourcemarketmixandtravellerpreference

aswellasdestinationspecific

allbenefittingfromincreased

connectivitytokeysourcemarkets

andprioritisationofthesector.

proximityandconnectivity.

Chinaisalsoexpectedtogrow

factorsincludinginfrastructure,

attractivenessforkeyactivities

policy,andrelative

Manyestablisheddestinations,

suchasSpain,Franceand

Turkey,areperformingwell,and

areexpectedtocontinuetosee

significantgrowthininbound

spendinthenearterm.The

eachregionissettoremain

rankingoftopdestinationsin

cdfrompre-

However,other,historically

smaller,marketsarebenefitting

fromsignificantgrowthfollowing

thereopeningoftourism.These

includeAlbania,Croatia,andthe

Maldiveswitheachexpected

toreceivemorethan50%

2024.Thesedestinationsare

growthrelativeto2019levelsby

2030andbeyond

Overthelongerrun,there

destinationstotakeadvantage

areclearopportunitiesfor

ofrisinghouseholdincomes

inemergingmarketsand

associatedincreasesintravel

demand.Theproportionof

Chinesehouseholdsableto

settoroughlydoubleoverthe

affordinternationaltravelis

nexttenyears,whilesignificant

increasesarealsoexpectedin

othermajormarketssuchas

Thisgrowthindemandfrom

IndiaandIndonesia.

emergingAsianmarketswill

benefitdestinationswithin

theregionandbeyond.

ThailandandJapanaresetto

experienceespeciallystrong

growthfromthegrowing

classconsumers,helpedby

demandfromChinesemiddle-

asadestinationaswellasa

Lowerratesofgrowthare

expectedintheAmericasand

Europewhichisreflectiveof

mature,butstrong,underlying

demand.

sourcemarketwithincreased

linkagessupportingtravelin

alldirections.By2033Chinais

expectedtomorethandouble

itsinboundtourismspend

comparedwith2024

Elsewhere,countriessuchas

SaudiArabia,Egypt,andSouth

Africashouldalsocomfortably

tourismspend,ascontinued

doubletheamountofinbound

illd

shareofgrowingglobaldemand.

toaccommodateanincreased

Therearenotableriskstothe

growthoutlook,aswellasclear

opportunitiesfordestinations

tocontinuetogainmarket

share.Shiftingdemographics

couldshapetravelpatterns

asanagingprofileinmany

theindustry.By2050,the

economieswillinfluence

aged65oroverwillbenearly

proportionofthepopulation

doublethecurrentlevel,

withprofoundimplicationsforactivityanddestinationpreferences.

Increasingdemandformore

reshapethelandscape.This

sustainabletravelwillalso

couldincludeanincreasedtrend

ofslowtravelasconsumers

potentiallyundertakelongerbut

fewertrips.Climatechangemay

alsohaveamoredirectinfluence

ontravelasweatherdisplaces

demand,potentiallyleadingto

shiftsinseasonality.

However,throughtechnological

advancementsandinnovative

managementplans,leisure

tourismcancontinuetothrive

andprovideforeconomies,

communities,andtravellersalike.

8

Leisuretravelspending

isbeingpriortisedwithin

discretionaryspending

Shiftingdemographics,

incomegrowthand

evolvingpreferenceswil

reshapepatternswithin

growingdemand

9

03.Global&RegionalSummary:2023

Leisuretourismrecovery

In2023,theglobaltravel

andtourismindustryhas

demonstratedresiliencewith

pent-updemandandexcess

savingsfromtheCOVID-19

pandemicperiodsupportingthe

sector.Thisisdespiteeconomic

challengesand,inparticular,

thesqueezingofpersonal

disposableincomesinmostmajor

economies.Thishasbeendriven

byhighinflationandtheimpactof

higherinterestratesonborrowing.

Consumersentimentisdeclining

inmanyadvancedeconomiesand

yet,manyconsumerscontinueto

prioritisetravel.

Inthedecadepriortothe

pandemic.globalinternationaltripsgrewfromunder1bilionin2010tonearly1.5billionin2019.However,in2020,thenumberoftripsfell

tojustover400millionduetotheCOVID-19pandemic.Animpressiverecoverymeansthatglobaltripsin2023arebackover1.2bilion.

Leisuretripshaverecovered

morestronglythanbusiness

trips,althoughthelatterisona

recoverypathway.Leisuretrips

nowcomprise60%ofallglobal

internationaltripsandtherecovery

inleisurehascontinueddespite

increasedfinancialpressureson

households.

Consumers

prioritised

travelin

2023

despite

mounting

costs

11

文

30%

1Z0

Thereisconsiderablevariation

globallyintherecoveryof

leisuretraveldemand.In2023,

theMiddleEastisinpositive

territory(expectedtobeup13%

comparedto2019),whileAsia-

Pacificisexpectedtobe30%

lowerthanthenumberofleisure

arrivalsin2019.Nevertheless,

overall,theindustryhas

undergoneremarkablerecovery.

However,travelinthepost-

pandemicworldislikelyto

evolvedifferentlycomparedto

greaterfocusonsustainability

thepast.Higherairfaresanda

mayshifttraditionaltravel

patterns.Whiletheluxurytravel

theimmediatepost-pandemic

period,therecouldbesome

sectorhasbeenboomingin

increasedpolarisationintravel

markets.Consumersunaffected

byeconomicdownturnsare

likelytocontinueoptingfor

luxurydestinations.

Meanwhile,thoseinlowerincomegroupsmightincreasinglyfeel

theimpactofsqueezedpersonalincomesandseekoutmore

budgettraveloptionsorreducetheirtravelsoverall.

However,onefactorwhich

willcontinuetosupport

theindustryisthefactthat

manylabourmarketsremain

unusuallytight.Althoughthiscontinuestocreaterecruitmentandretentiondifficulties,it

alsomeansthattravelremainsaffordableforallbutavery

smallminorityofhouseholdsintheadvancedeconomies.

12

ANOXI

InboundLeisureArrivalsBy

Region:(2023vs.2019)

PercentageChange

Region20192023

AmericasE

Europe440

Asia-Pacific21F

2

MiddleEast

29

4g

13%

Africa

etehenotips

growthn3M%iddleEast

leisurearrivalswhile

Asia-Pacificlagsglobal

recovery

soureeTounsmtEeonomes

wtm

Intermsofinboundleisure

trips,thetwolargestdestination

countriesin2023areFrance

andSpain-bothwithover70

millionleisurevisits.Thosetwo

countriesarefollowedbyTurkey

andtheUnitedStates-each

withover40millionvisits.

However,itisworthnoting

thatofthesetenlargestleisure

tourismdestinationcountries,

onlyTurkeyandGreecehave

exceeded2019levels,while

Franceisbroadlyonparwith

2019.BothAsia-Pacificcountries

(ThailandandJapan)remain

morethanaquarterdownon

leisurevisitswhichispartly

duetothedelayedreopeningof

Chineseoutboundtravel.

Althoughstartingfromlower

levels,thestrongestgrowth

inleisurearrivalshasbeen

elsewhere.Forexample,Saudi

Arabiahasmajorplansto

repositionitselfasaleisure

tourismdestinationaspartof

its'Vision2030'strategyto

diversifyitseconomy.Ithas

yln

with2019.Similarly,Albaniahas

recordedoneofthestrongest

leisuretourismrecoveriesin

Europewitha43%increasein

leisurearrivalscomparedto

2019.Polandhasalsoperformed

stronglyachievinganincrease

ofover30%ininboundleisure

visits.

KeyGrowthMarkets

(2023vs.2019)

SaudiArabia64%

Albania43%

Poland35%

SoureToinsmEoromtes

Aidedbyfavourable

exchangerates,rurkeyhas

strongestgrowthamong

top10destinations.In2023,

visitationisexpectedtobe

15%

higherthanin2019

13

Inboundspendingbyglobalregion

In2023,mostglobalregions

pandemiclevelsofnominal

areexpectedtoexceedpre-

travelspend.Meanwhile,Asia-

Pacific,whichreopenedto

travelmuchlaterisbehindthe

curveintermsofmakingafull

recovery,especiallywithregards

tointernationaltraveldemand.

Nevertheless,Asia-Pacificisnow

recoveringstrongly,andAsia

isespeciallywellrepresented

amongthoseemergingmarkets

whereanexpansioninfinancial

abilityandenthusiasmtotravelis

coupledwithstrongdemographic

growthoverthecomingdecades.

Europeistheregionwiththe

highestvolumeofinboundvisits

andisexpectedtoachieve19%

morespendingin2023thanin

2019.Ingrowthterms,theMiddle

Eastistheleadingregionwith

46%morespendingexpectedin

2023comparedwith2019.

Internationalleisurespendingisbroadly

onparorabovepre-pandemiclevelsinall

regionsexceptAsia-Pacific

14

Domesticspendingbyglobalregion

Inmanycountries,domestic

visitationismoreimportant

thaninternationalvisits.This

isespeciallytrueforcountries

whichareeithergeographically

verylarge-suchastheUnited

States-orhaveaburgeoning

populationwhichcanaffordto

undertakesometravelsuch

asChina.

TheAmericasarestrongly

affectedbytheimportanceof

domestictourismwithinthe

UnitedStates.Strongrecovery

inUnitedStatesdomestictravel

isexpectedtocontributetoan

increaseof31%ofleisuretravel

spendintheAmericasin2023

comparedwith2019.

Domestictravelamongthe

rapidlyexpandingpopulationofAsia-Pacificisalsoimportant,expectedtoaccountfornearly

$1.2trilionin2023,justslightly

belowthe2019level.Furthermore,domesticsubstitutionwhichtookplaceduringthepandemic,withmanyconsumerseitherforcedorpreferringtotraveldomestically

ratherthaninternationally,isstillhavingsomeimpact.In2023,allglobalregionsareexpectedto

recoverto2019nominallevelsofspendingfordomestictourism.InthecaseoftheMiddleEast,spendisexpectedtomassivelyexceed2019levelsseeinggrowthof176%.

Domesticactivityhasrecoveredearlier

thaninternational,includingsome

lingeringsubstitutioneffects

15

04.CountrySummary:2023

InboundTourismRecovery

TheAmericas

NorthAmericandestination

expectedtotrackabout17%

with2019withinboundleisure

countriesconstitutethe

downon2019.Incontrast,

tourismspendingexpectedto

largestinboundleisuretourism

nominalinboundleisure

bealittleoverhalfofthe

destinationsintheAmericas.

spendinginMexicoshouldbe

2019level.

Ofthese,theUnitedStatesis

28%uponits2019levelandup

byfarthesinglelargest.Itis

by7%inCanada.

notablethattheUSisoneof

afewcountriesgloballywhich

PuertoRicoisanothercountry

hasnotrecoveredtoits2019

intheAmericaswhichhas

levelofspendinnominalterms,

notyetrecoveredcompared

17

lstgillons

%of2019level

Europe

MostEuropeandestinations

hleairdriosvii2n0n1o9minal

ni

largestinboundtourism

destinationshavebeenin

Portugal,FranceandSpain

CroatiaandTurkey.Meanwhile,

hadthestrongestrecoveries

amongstthemajoreurozone

destinationcountries.

In2023,Spain,Franceand

Turkeyhavethehighestlevels

llargest

destinationstherearesome

countrieswhichareunlikelytc

reach2019levelsofinbound

leisuretourismspend.These

includecountriesaffectedbythe

duetoitsproximity,aswellasthe

warinUkraine,includingHungary

IrishRepublic,whichisexpected

fuullrecoyery

toremainsignificantlyshortofa

LargestInboundLeisureDestinationCountries:

entehonUartms

TurkeyandCroatiahaveseenthe

Strongestinboundspendingincreases

amongstthelargestdestinations

Sourcs:Tourtn

18

marketmeansthatthelingering

Asia-Pacific

ManycountriesintheAsia-Pacific

regionwereslowertoendtravel

importanceofChinaasasource

restrictionsafterCOVID-19.The

restrictionsonbothinboundand

performanceacrosstheregion.

alargeimpactondestination

outboundtravelinto2023had

Japanalsokeptasystemof

quotasonarrivalsinoperation

untilApril2023.Amongthe

largerdestinationcountries,IndiaandSouthKoreastandoutas

exceptionsinAsia-Pacificonthecuspofreceiving2019levelsofnominalspendingin2023.

LargestInboundLeisureDestinationCountries:Asia-Pacific(2023vs.2019)

94

■

g

70

62

5

50

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

MalaysiaAustraliaTaiwan

RecoveredNearlyrecoveredNotrecovered

urce:TourismEconomics

RecoveryinIndiaandSouthKorea

isalmostcomplete,whileactivityis

laggingelsewhereinAsia-Pacific

Soure:TourismEconomics

80

70

60

50

40

100

90

80

HongKong.China

Macao,China

SouthKorea

57■

Thailand

Japan

China

India

71

90

60

54

57

60

0

19

MiddleEast

TheMiddleEasthasdemonstratedthestrongestregionalrecoveryinleisurearrivals.

SaudiArabiaandtheUnitedArab

largestinbounddestinations

forleisurespending.Both

Emiratescontinuetobethetwo

countriesareinvestingheavilyin

tourisminfrastructure,viewingtourismdevelopmentasakeystrategytodiversifyawayfromhydrocarbonsreliance.

In2023,allcountriesintheregionareexpectedtorecovertotheir

2019levelsofleisurespendingwiththesoleexceptionofIraq.

KuwaitandSaudiArabiaare

expectedtoseethestrongest

growthinpercentageterms

(growthof66%and90%on

2019,respectively).Kuwaithas

alsobeenattemptingtoboost

non-oilrevenuesandviews

tourismasanimportantpartof

thisstrategy.

LargestInboundLeisureDestinationCountries:

In2023,allMiddleEasterncountriesare

expectedtorecoverto2019levelsof

leisurespend,exceptIraq

Source:ToursmE

20

Africa

Africa'srangeofdiversecountrieshasresultedinavariedpicture

acrossthecontinent.ManySub-

Saharancountriesarenotexpectedtorecoverfromthedownturnin

inboundtourism.Thisincludes

SouthAfrica-oneofthethree

largestdestinationsintheregion.

Butthepictureisfarfromuniversal

inSub-SaharanAfricawithboth

KenyaandTanzaniahavingmade

strongrecoveries.

Thetwolargestdestinationcountriesintheregionin2023intermsof

inboundeisurespendareEgypt

andMorocco.bothofwhichhave

recoveredto2019levels-inthecaseofthelatter,exceedingthatby30%.

21

DomesticTourismRecovery

Americas

Morethan90%oftotaltourism

spendingintheUnitedStates

isdomestic.Therefore,despite

arelativelyweakrecoveryin

inboundleisurespendinginthe

US,anexpectedincreaseof30%indomesticleisurespendingon2019representsastrongrecoveryoverall.Itisapicturethatis

reflectedacrossthemostvisited

destinationsacrossthecontinentwithonlyColombiaontracktomissreachingits2019nominalspendinglevel

Source:TourismEconomic:

TheUnitedStatesdominatesdomestic

spendingintheAmericasandis29%

above2019levels

Souree:TourismEconorn

22

Europe

Innominalspendingterms,allofEurope'slargestdomestic

tourismmarketsareexpectedtorecovertospendinglevelsabove2019in2023.Thisisespeciallyimportantindestination

countriessuchasGermany,

theUnitedKingdom,andthe

Netherlands,wheredomestic

tourismisahighshareoftotaltourismspending.Evenbeyondthetop10'countries,thepicture

isreflectedacrossthecontinentwiththesoleexceptionof

Ukraine.

23

domesticleisureintheregion.In

spending2023,the

countryisexpectedtoseearecoveryinspendingto137%ofits2019level.

Asia-Pacific

Withthelaterreopeningof

internationaltravelintheAsia-

Pacificregion,therehascontinuedtobeastrongelementofdomesticsubstitutioninmanycountries.AgoodexampleofthisisAustralia

wheredomesticleisurespendingisnowexpectedtobe24%higherinnominaltermsthanitwasin

2019.Thetwoexceptionstotheregionaltrend,wheredomesticleisurespendinglevelshavenot

beenregained,areChinaand

Japan.InJapanthisisdespite

governmentattemptstoincentivisedomesticleisureholidayssuch

astheNationalTravelDiscountProgramme.

Source:TourismEconomics

ChinaandJapanarestilllaggingthe

widerrecoveryfordomesticand

intenationaltravel.Australiaisstilbenefitingfromsubstitutioneffects

ource:Tourism

24

MiddleEast

thesecountries,domesticleisureSaudiArabiaisthedestination

In2023,almosteverycountryintheMiddleEastisexpectedtoseedomesticleisurespendingexceedthatof2019.Among

from113%(of2019levels)inBahrainto166%intheUnitedArabEmirates.

spendingisexpectedtovarycountrywiththegreatest

25

Africa

In2023,almosteverycountry

However,inmanycasesspending

increasescomparedto2019Inthe

withinthetenlargestdomestic

isexpectedtoonlymarginally

caseofKenya,domestictourism

tourismdestinationsinAfricais

exceed2019-forexamplein

hasrecentlybeenbolstered

likelytoseedomesticspending

Coted'lvoireandAngolabut

bygovernmentcampaigns

exceed2019levelsinnominal

alsointhetwolargestdomestic

encouragingKenyanstotraveland

terms.Theonlyexceptionamongst

destinations:SouthAfricaand

exploretheirowncountry.

thetenlargestdestination

Egypt.Incontrast,Kenya,Algeria

countriesisexpectedtobeNigeria.

andTunisiahaveseensignificant

26

05.DriversofDemand

Tourismandthe

widereconomy

SincetheCOVID-19pandemic.

traveltrendshavebeenless

tightlycorrelatedwithtraditional

macroeconomicdrivers.Travel

traveland,asaresult,tourism

spendingfellmoresharplythan

globalGDPTravelhassince

reboundedstrongly-andto

amuchgreaterextentthan

mighthavebeenanticipated

basedonthetypicalrelationship

betweentraveldemandand

affordableandaccessible.

TourismSpend&NominalGDPGrowth

Annualgrowthrate

20%

0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Source:TourismEconomics

Travel

growth

continues

despite

economic

headwinds,

aspent-up

demandis

realised

Historically,thegrowthof

tourismhasbeenclosely

associatedwithrising

disposableincomesanda

reductionintravelcosts.

Between2000and2019,

theaveragespendper

internationaltripfell17%

inrealterms.Deregulation

acrosstheaviationindustry

resultedincheaperfaresand

agreatervolumeoftrips,

especiallyshorthaul.In

theaccommodationsector,

increasedcompetitionfrom

alternativeaccommodation

macroeconomicconditions.While

thatrelationshipmight

besomewhatstretchedatpresent,itisstillevidentalongsidetheverystrongtravelandtourismrecovery.

types,suchasshort-term

rentals,havealsocontributed

tolowerpricesinrealterms

makingtourismmore

■NominalGDPgrowthNominaltoursmspendinggrowth

constraintsseverelyrestricted

29

beenthemarketsegmentwith

thestrongestrecovery.

However,2022and2023have

seenlessfavourableeconomic

key;unemploymentinmost

countriesisrelativelylow

giventhebackdrop.Aslong

asunemploymentremains

low,sentimentshouldsupport

drivers.Upwardpressureon

fuelandtransportprices-

givenadditionalimpetusby

Russia'sinvasionofUkraine

acontinuedprioritisationof

discretionaryspendtowards

travel.

-havesqueezedpersonal

Strongtravelrecovery

Abigdriverofthisgaphasbeen

aidedbyexcesssavings(the

differencebetweenactualsavings

andwhatwouldhavebeensaved

pandemic)accumulatedduring

periodsofpandemicrelated

withouttheexistenceofthe

lockdownandtravelrestrictions.

Thesesavingsareallowingfor

additionaldiscretionaryspending

duringthisrecoveryperiod.

Furthermore,someofthe

strongestregionalrecoveries-

disposableincomesinmany

countries,whilealsoputting

pressureonairlinestopass

additionalcostsontothe

consumerintheformofhigherairfares.Highercostshavenotyetbeenasignificantdeterrenttogrowthandtravellersappearwillingtopayhigherprices.

Someofthismaybetheresultofcontinuedpent-updemandandremainingaccumulated

thatmanycon