國際可持續(xù)研究所（IISD）：印度尼西亞凈零交通戰(zhàn)略的可持續(xù)資產(chǎn)評估

SustainableAsset

Valuatior

SAM

ASustainable

AssetValuatioh

ofaNet-Zero

Transport

Strategyin

[ndonesia

TECHNICALREPORT

IISD

InternationalInstitutefor

SustainableDevelopment

◎2024InternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopment|IISD.org

MichailKapetanakis

NathaliaNino

LiesbethCasier

AndreaM.Bassi

January2024

ASustainableAssetValuationofaNet-ZeroTransportStrategyinIndonesia

?2024TheInternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopment

PublishedbytheInternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopment.

ThispublicationislicensedunderaCreativeCommonsAttribution-

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ASustainableAssetValuationofaNet-ZeroTransportStrategy

inIndonesia

January2024

IISD.orgii

ASustainableAssetValuationofaNet-ZeroTransportStrategyinIndonesia

Acknowledgements

ThisreportispartofaseriesofSustainableAssetValuation(SAVi)assessmentsonsustainabletransportandmobilityprojectstoraiseawarenessandinformdecision-makersontheuseof

systemicapproachesandsimulationtosupportthetransformationtowardsustainablemobility.

Moreabouttheproject:

/savi/using-systemic-approaches-and-simulation

-to-support-transformation-toward-sustainable-mobilityl

ISDwouldliketothankAchmadZackyAmbadar,AgitaPutri,GemmaBurhanudin,

NameeraMoerdaning,MaulanaIchsanGituri,MarvinStolz(GIZ),andGiacomoPontara(BMZ)fortheircommentsandreview.

WearegratefulforthefinancialsupportoftheGermanFederalMinistryforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(BMZ)

&ooperation

DEUTSCHEZUSAMMENARBEIT

IISD.orgiii

ASustainableAssetValuationofaNet-ZeroTransportStrategyinIndonesia

ExecutiveSummary

PurposeofThisAssessmentandtheSustainableAssetValuationMethodology

TheSustainableAssetValuation(SAVi)assessmentofIndonesia'snet-zerotransportstrategyisoneofaseriesthatfocusesonquantifyingtheeconomic,social,andenvironmental

outcomesofsustainabletransportprojectsandstrategies.

Theseriesaimstoenhanceawarenessofsustainabletransportinfrastructureinvestments

andadvisedecision-makersontheimportanceofusingasystemicapproachwhenassessing

mobilityinvestments.Allstudiesintegratetheeconomicvaluationofsocialandenvironmentalimpacts,suchashealthandCO2emissions,tounderscoretheirsignificanceinthetransportinvestmentdecision-makingprocess.

SAViisamethodologythatofferspolicy-makersandinvestorsanall-encompassingandcustomizedanalysisoftheirinfrastructureprojectsandportfolios,consideringcosts,

benefits,risks,andexternalitiesthatareoftendisregardedintraditionalvaluations.

ThefollowingarethekeycomponentsofaSAViassessment:

?acombinationofsystemsthinkinganddifferentmodellingmethodologies,

suchasspatialmodelling,systemdynamicsmodelling,andfinancialmodelling.

?acustomizedapproachtoeachindividualinfrastructureproject,portfolio,orpolicy,tailoredtotheirspecificneedsandrequirements.

?aco-creationprocessthatinvolvesdecision-makersandstakeholders,adoptingamultistakeholderapproachthatallowsfortheidentificationofmaterialrisksandopportunitiesuniquetoeachprojectoralternative.Thisfostersdecision-makers'andstakeholders'abilitytotakeasystemicapproachtoinvestments,thereby

increasingthelikelihoodoftheresults'uptake,use,andimpact.

?ananalysisbasedonproject-leveldata(whereavailable),theSAVidatabase(derived

fromaliteraturereviewanddatafrompreviousSAViapplications),andbest-in-classclimatedatafromtheEUCopernicusClimateDateStore(builtintoallSAVimodels).

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ASustainableAssetValuationofaNet-ZeroTransportStrategyinIndonesia

Net-ZeroTransportStrategyinIndonesia

Indonesiaisanemergingeconomythathasreliedheavilyontransportationtopromoteits

economicdevelopment.Asaconsequence,transport(particularlyroadtransport)isthemost

energy-intensivesectorinthecountry—andoneofthemostpolluting(G20Insights,2022).

TransformingthetransportsectorinIndonesiaisthereforecrucialforreducingGHGemissionsandimprovingenergyefficiency(EryWijayaetal.,2021).TodecarbonizethetransportsectorinIndonesia,itisnecessarytoadoptanapproachthatinvolvestheelectrificationoftransport,coupledwithasignificantshareforrenewableenergyinelectricitygenerationandashiftfromindividual,motorizedtransportmodestopublicandnon-motorizedmodes(BAPPENAS,

2021).Forthepurposesofthisassessment,airandmarinetransportinfrastructurewerenotconsidered.Thisassessmentconsistsofthefollowingelements:

?fourbroadtransportinterventions:vehicleelectrification,investmentinpublictransportnetworks,teleworking,anddecarbonizationoftheelectricitysupply.

?threemainnet-zerotransportscenarios:onescenarioconsistingofinvestmentinpublictransportsystems,onescenarioconsistingofprivatevehicleelectrification,andonemixedscenariocombiningboth.Thesescenariosalsoincludeassumptionsrelatedtoteleworkinganddecarbonizationoftheelectricitysupplyfortransport.

?twoadditionalsecondaryscenariosrepresentingasensitivityanalysisofprivatevehicleelectrificationanddecarbonizationoftheelectricitysupplyfortransport.

?anintegratedcost-benefitanalysis(CBA)thatincludesthevaluationofdifferentindicatorsincludingthreemaininvestmentsandcosts,fouraddedbenefits,

andsixavoidedcostsovera30-yeartimehorizon.

Findings

TableES1showstheresultsoftheintegratedCBAofthenet-zerostrategyinIndonesiaforthethreemainscenariosthatwereassessedwiththeSAVimodel.

Scenario3,whichcombinesalltransportinterventions,resultsinthehighestpositive

outcomesacrossallindicatorsandanetbenefitofIDR6,926.03trillion(USD450.1billion)until2050.Thesecond-mostpositivenet-zerotransportscenarioisScenario2,whichshowsacumulativenetbenefitofIDR5,905.54trillionUSD383.8billion.Scenario2assumesa

100%rateofprivatevehicleelectrificationpoweredby100%renewableenergy.Scenario1assumesinvestmentinelectricpublictransportsystemsandteleworkingonly,andresultsinacumulativenetbenefitofIDR1,949.02trillion(USD126.7billion).

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ASustainableAssetValuationofaNet-ZeroTransportStrategyinIndonesia

TableES1.Integratedcost-benefitanalysis(discountedcumulativevaluesforthethreemainnet-zerotransportscenarios),inIDRtrillion

IntegratedCBA(discountedat11.33%and3.5%)

Scenario1.

Investment

inpublic

transport

system

Scenario2.

100%Privatevehicle

electrification—

100%

renewableenergy

Scenario3.

Mixednet-zero

transportscenario—

100%

renewableenergy

2022–2050

2022–2050

2022–2050

Investmentandoperationcosts

8,176.31

6,086.40

13,431.53

Investmentinpower

generation

40.59

1,400.98

1,392.17

Investmentinrenewablecapacity

13.48

1,299.51

1,290.18

Operationsand

maintenance(O&M)costsofrenewablecapacity

3.95

316.17

314.57

Investmentin

non-renewablecapacity

15.54

-139.24

-137.27

O&Mcostsof

non-renewablecapacity

7.62

-75.46

-75.31

Investmentinnon-

motorizedtransport(NMT)infrastructure:Avoid

3,104.56

0.00

3,104.56

Investmentinbusrapidtransit(BRT)andmassrapidtransit(MRT)

infrastructure:Shift

5,031.17

0.00

5,031.17

InvestmentinBRT

infrastructure

3,510.47

0.00

3,510.47

InvestmentinMRT

infrastructure

1,520.70

0.00

1,520.70

Investmentinelectric

vehicles:Improve

0.00

4,685.43

3,903.63

Investmentinelectriccars

0.00

4,309.84

3,591.33

O&Mcostsofelectriccars

0.00

148.19

122.47

Investmentinelectricbuses

0.00

61.94

51.67

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ASustainableAssetValuationofaNet-ZeroTransportStrategyinIndonesia

IntegratedCBA(discountedat11.33%and3.5%)

Scenario1.

Investment

inpublic

transport

system

Scenario2.

100%Privatevehicle

electrification—

100%

renewableenergy

Scenario3.

Mixednet-zero

transportscenario—

100%

renewableenergy

2022–2050

2022–2050

2022–2050

O&Mcostsofelectricbuses

0.00

12.75

10.55

Investmentinelectric

chargers

0.00

152.70

127.62

Addedbenefits

470.48

1,407.75

1,792.33

RealGDP

228.24

1,407.75

1,550.09

-Publicrevenue

34.24

211.16

232.51

-Disposableincome

193.99

1,196.52

1,317.50

RevenuesfromBRT

operation

222.82

0.00

222.82

RevenuesfromMRT

operation

8.02

0.00

8.02

Benefitsfromphysical

activity

11.40

0.00

11.40

Avoidedcosts

9,654.85

10,584.19

18,565.23

Internalcombustionengine(ICE)vehicles

0.00

4,226.68

3,527.21

InvestmentinICEcars

0.00

4,000.77

3,339.99

O&McostsofICEcars

0.00

164.43

135.96

InvestmentinICEbuses

0.00

51.92

43.36

O&McostsofICEbuses

0.00

9.56

7.91

Energycost

229.12

859.09

970.30

Airpollution

788.33

2,140.80

2,395.51

Airpollutionfromenergyconsumption

824.10

1,746.56

1,999.38

Airpollutionfrompowergeneration

-35.77

394.25

396.13

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ASustainableAssetValuationofaNet-ZeroTransportStrategyinIndonesia

IntegratedCBA(discountedat11.33%and3.5%)

Scenario1.

Investment

inpublic

transport

system

Scenario2.

100%Privatevehicle

electrification—

100%

renewableenergy

Scenario3.

Mixednet-zero

transportscenario—

100%

renewableenergy

2022–2050

2022–2050

2022–2050

CO2emissions

545.19

3,263.15

3,500.80

Noisepollution

645.05

94.47

724.25

Accidents

7,447.16

0.00

7,447.16

Cumulativenetbenefits(undiscounted)

2,609.32

23,622.33

23,225.01

Cumulativenetbenefits(discounted)

1,949.02

5,905.54

6,926.03

Benefit-costratio

1.24

1.97

1.52

Source:Authors’calculations.

Despitetheconsiderableinvestmentsaimedatreachingnet-zerointhetransportsectorin

Indonesiaby2050,thereisapositivereturnforthecountryinallscenarios.ForScenarios2and3,morethan35%ofthesocietalbenefitsareconnectedtoavoidedaccidents,reducedairandnoisepollution,andlowerCO2emissions.ThisillustratestheimportanceofincludingandvaluingthisbenefitinCBAsoftransport-relatedinterventions.

Thebenefit-costratio(BCR)ofthenet-zerotransportscenariosisalsocalculated.TheBCRdeterminestheoverallvalueformoneyofaproject.Itillustratesthereturnforeveryunit

(inIDR)investedbycomparingtheproject’stotalbenefits(includingavoidedcosts)with

thetotalcosts.Scenario2providesthemostattractiveBCR,with1.97IDRforevery1IDRinvested.Thisisbecausetheinvestmentcostsrelatedtopublictransportinterventions,whichareincludedintheothertwoscenarios,aremuchhigher.Somebenefitsofpublictransport,suchastimesavingsandwideraccesstomobilityoptions,couldnotbequantifiedforthe

purposesofthisassessmentbutdoprovideadditionalsocietalbenefits.ThebenefitsofScenarios1and3are,therefore,likelyanunderestimation.

WhilefromaBCRperspective,Scenario2looksmostattractive,thenetbenefitsofScenario3remainthelargestforsociety.PrivatevehicleelectrificationalonewillnotaddressissuesofcongestioninurbanareasinIndonesia.Congestionandthevalueoftimelosthaveanegativeimpactontheeconomy.

TableES2showstheinvestmentcosts,addedbenefits,avoidedcosts,andBCRsofa

sensitivityanalysisofScenario2.InScenario2a,weconsideralowershareofprivatevehicleelectrification(20%),whileinscenario2b,weconsidera100%shareofprivatevehicle

electrificationwithnoinvestmentsinthecurrentenergymix.

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TableES2.IntegratedCBAresultsandBCRsofthesensitivityanalysisofScenario2(secondaryscenarios)

IntegratedCBA(discounted;overa30-yeartimehorizon)

Scenario2.100%privatevehicle

electrification—100%renewableenergy

Scenario2a.

20%privatevehicleelectrification—100%renewableenergy

Scenario2b.

100%privatevehicle electrification—currentenergymix

Investmentand

costs(trillionIDR)

6,086.40

1,838.43

4,562.05

Addedbenefits

(trillionIDR)

1,407.75

1,031.72

183.37

Avoidedcosts

(trillionIDR)

10,584.19

4,572.07

6,597.62

Netbenefits

5,905.54

3,765.36

2,218.94

BCR

1.97

3.05

1.49

Source:Authors’calculations.

TheBCRforScenario2aamountsto3.05,whichishigherthantheBCRofScenarios2(1.97)or2b(1.49).TheresultsofScenarios2aand2barepredominantlyaffectedbytheavoidedcostsgeneratedbytheshifttowardrenewableenergy,notbytheextentofuptakeofprivatevehicleelectrification.Thisunderlinestheimportanceofintegratingnet-zero

transportstrategiesintoeffortsandpoliciesaimedatdecarbonizingtheenergysectorandviceversa.Net-zeroambitionsintransportcannotbeachievedwithoutthe

decarbonizationoftheenergysector.

Overall,theanalysisstronglysuggeststhatanet-zerotransportstrategycombiningan“avoid,shift,andimprove”approachwillbemoresuccessfulinachievingnet-zeroby2050whiledeliveringthelargestbenefitstosociety.

TheSAViassessmentresultscanbeconsideredbenchmarkvaluesforpolicy-makersandpublicinfrastructureplanners.Integratedassessments,suchasthisoneconductedusingtheSAVimethodology,canhelpmakeastrongercasefornet-zerotransportstrategies

atthenationallevel.TableES3indicateshowdifferentstakeholdersanddecision-makerscanusetheresultsofthisassessmenttomakemoreinformeddecisions.

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ASustainableAssetValuationofaNet-ZeroTransportStrategyinIndonesia

TableES3.Howdifferentstakeholdersanddecision-makerscanusetheresultsoftheSAViassessmentofthenet-zerotransportstrategyinIndonesia

Stakeholder

Roleintheproject

Howthestakeholdercanusetheresultsoftheassessment

Government

Design,

implementation,

andfinanceofthe

net-zerotransport

strategyinIndonesia

Regionalandnationalgovernmentscanuse

theassessmentresultstoraiseawareness

andjustifyinvestmentsandsupportfor

sustainabletransportprojectsandstrategies,aswellasmaketheseassessmentsastandardrequirementforinvestmentdecisions.

Private

sector/

industry

Projectdevelopers

Businessesandprivatesectorentitiescanusetheassessmentresultsforadditionaladvocacyforsustainabletransportprojectsandnet-zerotransportstrategies,aswellasforidentifyingnewopportunitiesforinvestment.

Donorsand

funders

Fundingfor

sustainabletransportprojectsandnet-zerotransportstrategies

Donorscanincludetheassessmentresultsintheirreportingprocessestoshowtheimpactsoftheirinvestments.Theassessmentresults

canalsobeusedforawarenessraisingofthebenefitsofnet-zerotransportstrategies,withtheultimateaimofmakingtheseassessmentsaformalrequirement.

Civilsocietyorganizations

Consultationwith

governmenton

sustainabletransportprojectsandnet-zerotransportstrategies

Civilsocietyorganizationscanusethe

assessmentresultstoconductmoretargetedadvocacyforsustainabletransportprojects

andtoraiseawarenessoftheirvalue

tosociety.

Source:Authors.

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ASustainableAssetValuationofaNet-ZeroTransportStrategyinIndonesia

Abbreviations

BMZ

GermanFederalMinistryforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment

BCR

benefit-costratio

BRT

busrapidtransit

CBA

cost-benefitanalysis

CLD

causalloopdiagram

CO2

carbondioxide

GHG

greenhousegasemissions

ICE

internalcombustionengine

IDR

Indonesianrupiah

MRT

massrapidtransit

NDC

nationallydeterminedcontributions

NMT

non-motorizedtransport

NOx

nitrogenoxides

O&M

operationandmaintenance

PM

2.5

particulatematterwithadiameteroflessthan2.5micrometres

RPJMN

NationalMedium-TermDevelopmentPlan

SAVi

Sustainableassetvaluationtool

VSL

valueofastatisticallife

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ASustainableAssetValuationofaNet-ZeroTransportStrategyinIndonesia

Glossary

Benefit-costratio:Aratiothatdeterminestheoverallvalueformoneyofaproject.Itillustratesthereturnforeveryunit(USDorIDR)investedbycomparingaproject’stotalbenefitswiththetotalcosts.

Causalloopdiagram:Aschematicrepresentationofkeyindicatorsandvariablesofthesystemunderevaluationthatshowsthecausalconnectionsbetweenthemandcontributestotheidentificationoffeedbackloopsandpolicyentrypoints.

Discounting:Afinanceprocesstodeterminethepresentvalueofafuturecashvalue.

Indicators:Parametersofinteresttooneorseveralstakeholdersthatprovideinformationaboutthedevelopmentofkeyvariablesinthesystemovertimeandtrendsthatunfoldunderspecificconditions(UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgram[UNEP],2014b).

Methodology:Thetheoreticalapproach(es)usedforthedevelopmentofdifferenttypesofanalysistoolsandsimulationmodels.Thisbodyofknowledgedescribesboththeunderlyingassumptionsusedaswellasqualitativeandquantitativeinstrumentsfordatacollectionandparameterestimation(UNEP,2014).

Modelvalidation:Theprocessofassessingthedegreetowhichmodelbehaviour(i.e.,numericalresults)isconsistentwithbehaviourobservedinreality(i.e.,nationalstatistics,establisheddatabases)andtheevaluationofwhetherthedevelopedmodelstructure(i.e.,equations)isacceptableforcapturingthemechanismsunderlyingthesystemunderstudy(UNEP,2014b).

Netbenefits:Thecumulativeamountofmonetarybenefitsaccruedacrossallsectorsandactorsoverthelifetimeofinvestmentscomparedtothebaseline,reportedbytheinterventionscenario.

Scenarios:Expectationsaboutpossiblefutureeventsusedtoanalyzepotentialresponsestothesenewandupcomingdevelopments.Consequently,scenarioanalysisisaspeculativeexerciseinwhichseveralfuturedevelopmentalternativesareidentified,explained,and

analyzedfordiscussiononwhatmaycausethemandtheconsequencesthesefuturepathsmayhaveonoursystem(e.g.,acountryorabusiness).

Simulationmodel:Modelscanberegardedassystemicmapsinthattheyaresimplifications

ofrealitythathelptoreducecomplexityanddescribe,attheircore,howthesystemworks.Simulationmodelsarequantitativebynatureandcanbebuiltusingoneorseveralmethodologies(UNEP,2014b).

Systemdynamics:AmethodologydevelopedbyForresterinthelate1950s(Forrester,

1961)tocreatedescriptivemodelsthatrepresentthecausalinterconnectionsbetweenkey

indicatorsandindicatetheircontributiontothedynamicsexhibitedbythesystemaswellastotheissuesbeinginvestigated.Thecorepillarsofthesystemdynamicsmethodarefeedbackloops,delaysandnonlinearityemergingfromtheexplicitcapturingofstocksandflows

(UNEP,2014b).

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TableofContents

1.0Introduction 1

1.1AchievingNet-ZeroinIndonesia 1

1.2AchievingNet-ZerointheTransportSectorinIndonesia 2

1.3PurposeofaSustainableAssetValuationoftheNet-ZeroTransport

StrategyinIndonesia 5

2.0Methodology 6

2.1SystemMapping 6

2.2SummaryofIndicatorsValuedbytheSAViAssessment 9

2.3DiscountRates 11

2.4Limitations 11

3.0ScenariosandAssumptions 12

3.1ValuationMethodologiesfortheInvestmentandCosts,AddedBenefits

andAvoidedCosts 16

4.0Results 26

4.1IntegratedCost-BenefitAnalysis 26

4.2Benefit-to-CostRatiosFromDifferentPerspectives 35

4.3DetailedDiscussionofAddedCostsandAvoidedBenefits 36

5.0DiscussionandConclusion 44

6.0References 45

AppendixA.SAViAssessmentandtheIV2045Model 48

AppendixB.UndiscountedIntegratedCost-BenefitAnalysis 49

AppendixC.MainAssumptionsandDataSourcesUsed

fortheSystemDynamicsModel 52

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ASustainableAssetValuationofaNet-ZeroTransportStrategyinIndonesia

ListofFigures

Figure1.Causalloopdiagramforthenet-zerotransportstrategyinIndonesia 8

Figure2.Numberofelectriccarspernet-zeroscenario 19

Figure3.Numberofelectricbusespernet-zeroscenario 19

Figure4.Netbenefitsofthethreescenarios(discountedat11.3%and3.5%) 26

Figure5.AddedbenefitsandavoidedcostsofScenario3 37

Figure6.Investmentcosts,revenues,addedbenefits,andavoidedcosts

acrossthethreemainscenarios 38

Figure7.Totalgreenjobscreated 39

Figure8.Transport-relatedCO2emissions 42

ListofTables

TableES1.Integratedcost-benefitanalysis(discountedcumulativevalues

forthethreemainnet-zerotransportscenarios),inIDRtrillion vi

TableES2.IntegratedCBAresultsandBCRsofthesensitivityanalysis

ofScenario2(secondaryscenarios) ix

TableES3.Howdifferentstakeholdersanddecision-makersusetheresults

oftheSAViassessmentofthenet-zerotransportstrategyinIndonesia x

Table1.Causalrelationsandcausality 7

Table2.Investments,costs,addedbenefitsandavoidedcosts 9

Table3.Benefit-costratiosconsideredintheSAViassessmentofthe

net-zerotransportstrategyinIndonesia 10

Table4.Descriptionofthescenariossimulatedinthenet-zerotransport

strategySAViassessment 12

Table5.Summaryofthescenariossimulatedinthenet-zerotransport

strategySAViassessment 13

Table6.Net-zerotransportscenario1:Investmentinpublictransportsystems 14

Table7.Net-zerotransportScenario2:Privatevehicleelectrification,

includingsensitivityanalyses2aand2b 15

Table8.Net-zerotransportScenario3:Mixed 15

Table9.Powergenerationtechnologiesandtheircostpermegawattby2030 17

Table10.Lengthofpublictransportnetworks 18

Table11.Healthcostofairpollution 23

Table12.CO2emissionfactorperenergysource 23

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ASustainableAssetValuationofaNet-ZeroTransportStrategyinIndonesia

Table13.Noisecostperv-kmbytransportmode 24

Table14.Costofaccidentpertransportmode 25

Table15.IntegratedCBA(discountedvaluesat11.33%and3.5%

forthenet-zerotransportscenarios),IDRtrillion 27

Table16.IntegratedCBA(discountedvaluesat3.5%forthe

net-zerotransportscenarios),IDRtrillion 30

Table17.IntegratedCBA(discountedvaluesforthenet-zerotransport

Scenario2,includingsensitivityanalysisofScenarios2aand2b),IDRtrillion 32

Table18.BCRsfromdifferentperspectivesandacrossallnet-zero

transportscenarios(discountedat11.33%and3.5%) 36

Table19.CumulativevaluesofrealGDPbenefitsacrossmainnet-zero

transportscenarios(discountedat11.33%),IDRtrillion 39

Table20.CumulativevaluesofBRTandMRTrevenuesacrossmain

net-zerotransportscenarios(discountedat11.33%),IDRtrillion 40

Table21.Cumulativevaluesofhealthbenefitsfromincreasedphysicalactivity

acrossmainnet-zerotransportscenarios(discountedat3.5%),IDRtrillion 40

Table22.Cumulativevaluesofavoidedcostsofconventionalvehiclesacross

mainnet-zerotransportscenarios(discountedat11.33%),IDRtrillion 41

Table23.Cumulativevaluesofavoidedenergycostsacrossmainnet-zero

transportscenarios(discountedat11.33%),IDRtrillion 41

Table24.Cumulativevaluesofavoidedcostsofairpollutionrealacross

mainnet-zerotransportscenarios(discountedat3.5%),IDRtrillion 42

Table25.CumulativevaluesofavoidedcostsofCO2emissionsacross

mainnet-zerotransportscenarios(discountedat3.5%),IDRtrillion 42

Table26.Cumulativevaluesofavoidednoisepollutioncostsacrossmain

net-zerotransportscenarios(discountedat3.5%),IDRtrillion 43

Table27.Cumulativevaluesofavoidedcostsofaccidentsacrossmain

net-zerotransportscenarios(discountedat3.5%),IDRtrillion 43

TableB1.Integratedcost-benefitanalysis(CBA)(undiscountedvalues

forthenet-zerotransportscenarios),IDRtrillion 49

TableC1.OverviewofkeyassumptionsusedintheSAViassessment

ofthenet-zerotransportstrategyinIndonesia 52

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ASustainableAssetValuationofaNet-ZeroTransportStrategyinIndonesia

1.0Introduction

1.1AchievingNet-ZeroinIndonesia

Indonesiaistheworld’sfourthlargestcountry,withapopulationof273million.Thecountryisexposedtosignificantclimatechangerisks,experiencinghighairpollutionlevelsand

havingmuchofitspopulationlivinginlow-lyingareasthatarepronetoflooding.Inaddition,Indonesia’spopulationandurbanizationratesareexpectedtoincreasesignificantlyinthe

comingdecades,theformerbyabout20%until2050(WorldBank,2019).Atthesametime,thecountryhasanareaof1,905millionkm2,includingapproximately18,000islands,and

thushasaverystrongpotentialforrenewableenergy,including40%oftheworld’spotentialforgeothermalenergy(KPMG,2021).

AlthoughtheIndonesiangovernmenthassetatargetofnet-zeroby2060,itisexpectedthatemissionswillincreaseformanysectorsoverthenextfewyears(KPMG,2021).AnincreaseinGHGemissionswillhavedamagingeffectsonIndonesia’seconomy.Onerecentanalysisshowsthatiftheworldis2.0–2.6°Cwarmerby2050,evenifcurrentpledgesunderthe

ParisAgreementaremet,Indonesia’sGDPcoulddiminishby16.7%–30.2%duetoclimatechangeimpacts(ReSwissInstitute,2021).Actionstoachievenet-zeroinIndonesiacanenddependencyonvolatilefossilfuelmarkets,whileatthesametimeprotectingtheextremelyvaluablenaturalcapitalofthecountry.

Importantly,in2020Indonesiaofficiallyadoptedt