財(cái)務(wù)管理基礎(chǔ)課件：Financial Forecasting

FinancialForecasting

ChapterOutlineFinancialforecastinginafirm’sstrategicgrowthThreefinancialstatementsPercent-of-salesmethodMethodstodeterminetheamountofnewfundsrequiredinadvanceFactorsthataffectcashflowFinancialForecastingAbilitytoplanaheadandmakenecessaryadjustmentsbeforeactualeventsoccurOutcomeofafirmthroughexternaleventsmightbeafunctionofboth:Risk-takingdesiresAbilitytohedgeagainstriskwithplanningNogrowthoradecline-nottheprimarycauseofshortageoffundsAcomprehensivefinancingplanmustbedevelopedforasignificantgrowthConstructingProFormaStatementsProforma,orprojected,financialstatementsenableafirmtoestimateitsfuturelevelofreceivables,inventory,payables,aswellasitsanticipatedprofitsandborrowingrequirements.Thesestatementsareoftenrequiredbybankersandotherlendersasaguideforthefuture.Asystemsapproachtodevelopproformastatementsconsistsof:ConstructingincomestatementbasedonsalesprojectionsandtheproductionplanTranslatingitintoacashbudgetAssimilatingallmaterialsintoaproformabalancesheetDevelopmentof

ProFormaStatementsProFormaIncomeStatementProvidesaprojectionontheanticipationofprofitsoverasubsequentperiodFourimportantstepsinclude:EstablishingasalesprojectionDeterminingproductionscheduleandtheassociateduseofnewmaterial,directlabor,andoverheadtoarriveatgrossprofitComputingotherexpensesDeterminingprofitbycompletingactualproformastatementEstablishaSalesProjectionLetusassumeGoldmanCorporationhastwoprimaryproducts:wheelsandcasters

Table4-1DetermineaProductionScheduleandtheGrossProfitNumberofunitsproducedwilldependon:BeginninginventorySalesprojectionsDesiredendinginventoryTodeterminetheproductionrequirements:

Units+Projectedsales+Desiredendinginventory–Beginninginventory=ProductionrequirementsStockofBeginningInventoryGoldmanCorporationhasinstocktheitemsshownintheTablebelow:Table4-2ProductionRequirements

forSixMonthsTable4-3UnitCostsCosttoproduceeachunit:

Table4-4TotalProductionCostsTable4-5CostofGoodsSoldCostsassociatedwithunitssoldduringthetimeperiodAssumptionsfortheillustration:FIFOaccountingisusedFirstallocatesthecostofcurrentsalestobeginninginventoryThentogoodsmanufacturedduringtheperiodAllocationofManufacturingCostandDeterminationofGrossProfitsTable4-6ValueofEndingInventoryTable4-7OtherExpenseItemsMustbesubtractedfromgrossprofitstoarriveatnetprofitEarningbeforetaxesGeneralandadministrativeexpenses,andinterestexpensesaresubtractedfromgrossprofitAftertaxincomeTaxesaredeductedfromtheearningbeforetaxesContributiontoretainedearningsDividendsaredeductedfromtheaftertaxincomeActualProFormaIncomeStatementTable4-8CashBudgetProformaincomestatementmustbetranslatedintocashflowsThelong-termproformaisdividedintosmallerMoreprecisetimeframessettohelpanticipatepatternsofcashinflowsandoutflowsMonthlySalesPatternTable4-9CashReceiptsInthecaseofGoldmanCorporation:Theproformaincomestatementistakenforthefirsthalfyear:SalesaredividedintomonthlyprojectionsAcarefulanalysisofpastsalesandcollectionrecordsshow:20%ofsalesiscollectedinthemonth80%inthefollowingmonthMonthlyCashReceiptsTable4-10ComponentCosts

ofManufacturedGoodsTable4-11CashPaymentsMonthlycostsassociatedwith:InventorymanufacturedduringtheperiodMaterialLaborOverheadDisbursementsforgeneralandadministrativeexpensesInterestpayments,taxes,anddividendsCashpaymentsfornewplantandequipmentCashPayments(cont’d)Assumptionsforthenexttwotables:Costsareincurredonanequalmonthlybasisoverasix-monthperiodMaintainproductionleveltoensuremaximumefficiencythoughsalesvolumevariesfrommonthtomonthPaymentformaterial,onceamonthafterpurchaseshavebeenmadeAverageMonthly

ManufacturingCostsTable4-12SummaryofAll

MonthlyCashPaymentsTable4-13ActualBudget

(MonthlyCashFlow)DifferencebetweenmonthlyreceiptsandpaymentsisthenetcashflowforthemonthAllowsthefirmtoanticipatetheneedforfundingattheendofeachmonthTable4-14CashBudgetwithBorrowing

andRepaymentProvisionsTable4-15Assumptions:ThefirmwishestomaintainminimumcashbalanceIfthebalancegoesbelowtheminimum,thefirmwillborrowIfthebalancegoesabovetheminimum,thefirmwillusetheexcesstorepaytheloanProFormaBalanceSheetRepresentsthecumulativechangesovertime Importanttoexaminethepriorperiod’sbalancesheetSomeaccountswillremainunchanged,whileotherswilltakenewvaluesInformationisderivedfromtheproformaincomestatementandcashbudgetDevelopmentofa

ProFormaBalanceSheetTable4-16Developmentofa

ProFormaBalanceSheet(cont’d)ProFormaBalanceSheetExplanationofProFormaBalanceSheetCash($5,000)—minimumcashbalanceasshowninTable4–15Marketablesecurities($3,200)—remainsunchangedfrompriorperiod’svalueinTable4–16Accountsreceivable($16,000)—basedonJunesalesof$20,000inTable4–10(80%ofcurrentmonthsalesbecomeaccountsreceivables)Inventory($6,200)—endinginventoryasshowninTable4–7.Plantandequipment($27,740+$18,000)$45,740Accountspayable($5,732)—basedonJunepurchasesinTable4–13Notespayable($5,884)—theamountthatmustbeborrowedtomaintainthecashbalanceof$5,000,asshowninTable4–15Long-termdebt($15,000)—remainsunchangedfrompriorperiod’svalueinTable4–16Commonstock($10,500)—remainsunchangedfrompriorperiod’svalueinTable4–16Retainedearnings($39,024)—initialvalueplusproformaincome($20,500+$18,524)AnalysisofProFormaStatementThegrowth($25,640)wasfinancedbyaccountspayable,notespayable,andprofitAsreflectedbytheincreaseinretainedearnings Totalassets(June30,2011)……$76,140 Totalassets(Dec31,2010)…….$50,500 Increase…………...$25,640

Percent-of-SalesMethodBasedontheassumptionthat:AccountsonthebalancesheetwillmaintainagivenpercentagerelationshiptosalesNotespayable,commonstock,andretainedearningsdonotmaintainadirectrelationshipwithsalesvolumeHencepercentagesarenotcomputedBalanceSheet

ofHowardCorporationPercent-of-SalesMethod(cont’d)FundsrequiredisascertainedFinancingisplannedbasedon:NotespayableSaleofcommonstockUseoflong-termdebtPercent-of-SalesMethod(cont’d)Companyoperatingatfullcapacity–needstobuynewplantandequipmenttoproducemoregoodstosell:Requirednewfunds:(RNF)=A(ΔS)–L(ΔS)–PS2(1–D)SSWhere