雙十一2000億手機(jī)購(gòu)物如何改變我們、改變世界？中英互譯

演講全文Thisismynephew,YuanYuan.He’sfiveyearsold,superadorable.Iaskedhimtheotherday,Whatwouldyoulikeforyourbirthdaythisyear?Hesaid,"Iwanttohaveaone-waymirrorSpider-Manmask."Ihadabsolutelynoideawhathewastalkingabout,soIsaid,"Wow,that’sreallycool,buthowareyougoingtogetit?"Hetoldme,withoutablinkofhiseyes,I’mgoingtotellmymomandmakeawishbeforeIgotobed.

這是我的侄子。圓圓。五歲的他非?？蓯?ài)。有一天我問(wèn)他：「今年想要什么生日禮物?」他說(shuō)：「我想要個(gè)眼罩是單面鏡的蜘蛛俠面具?！刮腋静恢浪f(shuō)的是什么，所以問(wèn)他：「哇，聽(tīng)起來(lái)很酷，要怎么才能得到呢?」他不假思索地回答：「我會(huì)告訴媽媽，并且在睡前許個(gè)愿。Mymomwillgotoshakehermobilephone.Thenextmorning,thedeliveryunclewillgiveittomewhenIwakeup."Iwasabouttoteasehim,butsuddenlyIrealizedhewassimplytellingmethetruth.

媽媽會(huì)把手機(jī)搖一搖。第二天早上我起床時(shí)，送貨的叔叔就送到了?！刮冶鞠攵核幌拢蝗灰庾R(shí)到他只是告訴我實(shí)話。Ifyouthinkofit,forachildlikeYuanYuan,shoppingisaverydifferentideacomparedtowhatmygenerationhadinmind.Shoppingisalwaysdoneonmobile,andpaymentisallvirtual.

是他這代人眼里看到的購(gòu)物實(shí)況。仔細(xì)想想，對(duì)圓圓這樣的孩子來(lái)說(shuō)，購(gòu)物的概念與我們這代人印像中的大不相同。他們總是用手機(jī)購(gòu)物，以虛擬付款。AhugeshoppingrevolutionishappeninginChinarightnow.Shoppingbehaviors,andalsotechnologyplatforms,haveevolveddifferentlythanelsewhereintheworld.Forinstance,e-commerceinChinaissoaring.It’sbeengrowingattwicethespeedoftheUnitedStatesandalotofthegrowthiscomingfrommobile.Everymonth,500millionconsumersarebuyingonmobilephones,andtoputthatintocontext,thatisatotalpopulationoftheUnitedStates,UKandGermanycombined.

此時(shí)中國(guó)正進(jìn)行著購(gòu)物的革命巨變;購(gòu)物行為和技術(shù)平臺(tái)的演變，已迥異于世界其他各地。例如，空前的中國(guó)電商榮景，以美國(guó)的兩倍速度成長(zhǎng)，而其中相當(dāng)大的部分來(lái)自行動(dòng)設(shè)備。每個(gè)月有五億個(gè)消費(fèi)者用手機(jī)購(gòu)物;具體來(lái)說(shuō)，相當(dāng)于美國(guó)、英國(guó)和德國(guó)的人口總和。Butitisnotjustaboutthescaleofthee-commerce,itisthespeedofadoptionandtheaggregationoftheecosystems.IttookChinalessthanfiveyearstobecomeacountryofmobilecommerce,andthatislargelybecauseofthetwotechnologyplatforms,AlibabaandTencent.Theyown90percentofthee-commerce--prettymuchthewholemarket--85percentofsocialmedia,85percentofinternetpayment.

不僅牽涉到電商的規(guī)模，采用的速度和生態(tài)系統(tǒng)聚集的程度也是。不到五年，中國(guó)已成為行動(dòng)商務(wù)的巨頭，這主要?dú)w功于兩大技術(shù)平臺(tái)：阿里巴巴和騰訊。二者掌握著90%的電商業(yè)務(wù)，幾乎是整個(gè)市場(chǎng)，還掌握85%的社群媒體，和85%的網(wǎng)路支付。

Andtheyalsoownlargevolumesofdigitalcontent,video,onlinemovie,literature,travelinformation,gaming.Whenthishugebaseofmobileshoppersmeetswithaggregatedecosystems,chemicalreactionshappen.Today,Chinaislikeahugelaboratorygeneratingallsortsofexperiments.YoushouldcometoChina,becausehereyouwillgetaglimpseintothefuture.

他們也擁有大量的數(shù)位內(nèi)容：影片、線上電影、文學(xué)、旅游資訊、游戲。當(dāng)龐大的行動(dòng)購(gòu)物消費(fèi)者遇上了聚集的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)，就會(huì)產(chǎn)生化學(xué)反應(yīng)。當(dāng)今的中國(guó)像是個(gè)巨大的實(shí)驗(yàn)室，正做著各式各樣的實(shí)驗(yàn)。你們應(yīng)該來(lái)中國(guó)看看，因?yàn)槟銈兡茉谶@里窺得一角未來(lái)。

OneofthetrendsIhaveseenconcernsthespontaneityofshopping.Fiveyearsago,inafashionstudy,wefoundthatonaverage,aChineseconsumerwouldbebuyingfivetoeightpairsofshoes.Thisnumbertripledtoreachabout25pairsofshoesayear.Whowouldneedsomanypairsofshoes?SoIaskedthem,"Whatarethereasonsyoubuy?"Theytoldmealistofinspirations:blogs,celebritynews,fashioninformation.

我觀察到自發(fā)性的購(gòu)物趨勢(shì)。五年前在研究流行趨勢(shì)時(shí)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)中國(guó)消費(fèi)者平均買(mǎi)五到八雙鞋子。如今這數(shù)字已經(jīng)成長(zhǎng)三倍，成為每年約買(mǎi)25雙。誰(shuí)會(huì)需要這么多鞋子呢?所以我詢問(wèn)他們：「為什么購(gòu)買(mǎi)?」他們告訴我刺激他們消費(fèi)的清單：部落格、名人的新聞、時(shí)尚的消息。

Butreally,formanyofthem,therewasnoparticularreasontobuy.Theywerejustbrowsingontheirmobilesiteandthenbuyingwhatevertheysaw.Wehaveobservedthesamelevelofspontaneityineverything,fromgroceryshoppingtobuyinginsuranceproducts.Butitisnotverydifficulttounderstandifyouthinkaboutit.AlotoftheChineseconsumersarestillverynewintheirmiddle-classorupper-middle-classlifestyles,withastrongdesiretobuyeverythingnew,newproducts,newservices.

而事實(shí)上，許多人并沒(méi)有具體的購(gòu)物理由，通常他們只在行動(dòng)設(shè)備上瀏覽網(wǎng)頁(yè)，看到什么就買(mǎi)什么。我們見(jiàn)到幾乎在每件事上都有同等程度的自發(fā)性，從購(gòu)買(mǎi)日用品到買(mǎi)保險(xiǎn)。仔細(xì)想想，不難理解這種行為。很多的中國(guó)消費(fèi)者才剛開(kāi)始接觸中產(chǎn)或中上層社會(huì)的生活方式，他們有強(qiáng)烈的欲望想要買(mǎi)每一樣新東西、新產(chǎn)品、新服務(wù)。

Andwiththisintegratedecosystem,itissoeasyforthemtobuy,oneclickafteranother.However,thisnewshoppingbehavioriscreatingalotofchallengesforthoseonce-dominantbusinesses.Theownerofafashioncompanytoldmethathe’ssofrustratedbecausehiscustomerskeepcomplainingthathisproductsarenotnewenough.Well,forafashioncompany,reallybadcomment.

有了整合的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)，買(mǎi)東西輕而易舉，一個(gè)接著一個(gè)的點(diǎn)選。然而，這種新的消費(fèi)行為產(chǎn)生了很多的新挑戰(zhàn)給那些曾經(jīng)稱霸過(guò)的業(yè)者面對(duì)。一個(gè)時(shí)裝公司的東主對(duì)我訴說(shuō)他的挫折，因?yàn)轭櫩鸵恢北г顾漠a(chǎn)品不夠新，對(duì)時(shí)裝公司而言是很糟糕的評(píng)價(jià)。

Andhealreadyincreasedthenumberofproductsineachcollection.Itdoesn’tseemtowork.SoItoldhimthere’ssomethingmoreimportantthanthat.You’vegottogiveyourconsumerexactlywhattheywantwhentheystillwantit.

他已經(jīng)增加每個(gè)系列的新品數(shù)量，但好像沒(méi)什么效果。我告訴他更重要的是必須滿足顧客的確切需求，而且要及時(shí)地滿足。

AndhecanlearnsomethingfromtheonlineapparelplayersinChina.Thesecompanies,theycollectrealconsumerfeedbackfrommobilesites,fromsocialmedia,andthentheirdesignerswilltranslatethisinformationintoproductideas,andthensendthemtomicrostudiosforproduction.Thesemicrostudiosarereallykeyinthisoverallecosystem,becausetheytakesmallorders,30garmentsatatime,andtheycanalsomakepartiallycustomizedpieces.

他可以向中國(guó)的網(wǎng)路服裝供應(yīng)商學(xué)習(xí)。這些公司收集真正的顧客反饋，從行動(dòng)裝置和社群媒體上收集，然后他們?cè)O(shè)計(jì)的團(tuán)隊(duì)把這些資訊轉(zhuǎn)化成產(chǎn)品的構(gòu)想，再送去小型工作室生產(chǎn)。這些小型工作室是整個(gè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的關(guān)鍵，因?yàn)樗麄兘邮苄×坑唵?，一?0件，還能小部分客制化。

Thefactthatalltheseproductiondesignsaredonelocally,thewholeprocess,fromtransportingtoproductonshelforonlinesometimestakesonlythreetofourdays.Thatissuperfast,andthatishighlyresponsivetowhatisinandhotonthemarket.Andthatisgivingenormousheadachestotraditionalretailers由于一系列的生產(chǎn)和設(shè)計(jì)都在當(dāng)?shù)赝瓿桑麄€(gè)從運(yùn)輸?shù)缴霞芑蛏暇W(wǎng)的過(guò)程有時(shí)短到只需三到四天，堪稱神速，是對(duì)市場(chǎng)流行和熱賣(mài)的高效率反應(yīng)，致使每年只推出幾個(gè)限量款的傳統(tǒng)零售商極為頭痛。

Thenthere’saconsumer’sneedforultraconvenience.Acoupleofmonthsago,IwasshoppingwithafriendinTokyo.Wewereinthestore,andtherewerethreetofourpeoplestandinginfrontofusatthecheckoutcounter.Prettynormal,right?Butbothofusdroppedourselectionandwalkedaway.Thisishowimpatientwehavebecome.

此外還有消費(fèi)者對(duì)超便利的需求。幾個(gè)月前，我和朋友在東京逛街。我們?cè)谝患业昀?，前面排了三四個(gè)人等著收銀機(jī)結(jié)賬。很正常，對(duì)吧?但是我們兩人都放下了挑好的東西，離開(kāi)了商店。我們變得如此沒(méi)有耐心。Deliveringultraconvenienceisnotjustsomethingnicetohave.Itiscrucialtomakesureyourconsumeractuallybuys.AndinChina,wehavelearnedthatconvenienceisreallythegluethatwillmakeonlineshoppingabehaviorandahabitthatsticks.Itissometimesmoreeffectivethanaloyaltyprogramalone.

有超便捷的遞送不僅僅好，還是顧客購(gòu)買(mǎi)與否的真正關(guān)鍵。我們?cè)谥袊?guó)發(fā)現(xiàn)，便捷才會(huì)真正使人們上網(wǎng)購(gòu)物的行為和習(xí)慣持久，有時(shí)甚至勝過(guò)只靠以客為尊的方案。

TakeHema.It’saretailgroceryconceptdevelopedbyAlibaba.Theydeliverafullbasketofproductsfrom4,000SKUstoyourdoorstepwithin30minutes.Whatisamazingisthattheydeliverliterallyeverything:fruits,vegetables,ofcourse.TheyalsodeliverlivefishandalsoliveAlaskakingcrab.Likemyfriendoncetoldme,It’sreallymydreamcomingtrue.Finally,Icanimpressmymother-in-law

舉「盒馬」為例，這是一個(gè)阿里巴巴推廣的零售概念他們把滿滿一籃貨品從四千個(gè)最小存貨單位送到你家門(mén)口不超過(guò)三十分鐘。不可思議的是幾乎每樣?xùn)|西都遞送：當(dāng)然包括水果、蔬菜，還遞送活魚(yú)和活生生的阿拉斯加帝王蟹。如同朋友有次對(duì)我說(shuō)的：「簡(jiǎn)直是夢(mèng)想成真。我終于可以在婆婆不打招呼就過(guò)來(lái)吃晚飯時(shí)使她服氣了?！?/p>

Well,companieslikeAmazonandFreshDirectarealsoexperimentinginthesamefield.ThefactthatHemaispartoftheAlibabaecosystemmakesitfasterandalsoabiteasiertoimplement.Foranonlinegroceryplayer,itisverydifficult,verycostly,todeliverafullbasketquickly,butforHema,it’sgotamobileapp,it’sgotmobilepayment,andalsoit’sbuilt20physicalstoresinhigh-densityareasinShanghai.

亞馬遜和新鮮直達(dá)這些公司也在同一領(lǐng)域?qū)嶒?yàn)著。盒馬因?yàn)殡`屬于阿里巴巴生態(tài)系統(tǒng)，得以更快、更容易施行。對(duì)網(wǎng)路零售商家而言，快遞一整籃貨品不容易做且成本很高，但是盒馬有自己的應(yīng)用程式、自己的行動(dòng)支付，還在上海鬧區(qū)開(kāi)設(shè)了二十家實(shí)體店。Thesestoresarebuilttoensurethefreshnessoftheproduct--theyactuallyhavefishtanksinthestore--andalsotogivelocationsthatwillenablehigh-speeddelivery.Iknowthequestionyouhaveonyourmind.Aretheymakingmoney?Yes,theyaremakingmoney.開(kāi)設(shè)這些店面以確保產(chǎn)品新鮮度──他們店里真的有水族箱──同時(shí)也得以快速發(fā)貨、送貨。我知道你們心里疑惑著：他們獲利了嗎?是的，他們有盈余。Theyarebreakingeven,andwhatisalsoamazingisthatthesalesrevenueperstoreisthreetofourtimeshigherthanthetraditionalgrocerystore,andhalfoftherevenueordersarecomingfrommobile.Thisisreallyproofthataconsumer,ifyougivethemultraconveniencethatreallyworksingroceryshopping,they’regoingtoswitchtheirshoppingbehaviorsonline,

他們的收支平衡。更不可思議的是每個(gè)店面的銷售額都高于傳統(tǒng)的零售店面三到四倍，而營(yíng)收的一半來(lái)自行動(dòng)端的訂單。這證明了對(duì)消費(fèi)者而言，如果提供他們真正要用的超便捷零售購(gòu)物體驗(yàn)，他們立刻就會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)為上網(wǎng)購(gòu)物。

Soultraconvenienceandspontaneity,that’snotthefullstory.TheothertrendIhaveseeninChinaissocialshopping.Ifyouthinkofsocialshoppingelsewhereintheworld,itisalinearprocess.YoupickupsomethingonFacebook,watchit,andyouswitchtoAmazonortocompletetheshoppingjourney.Cleanandsimple.

而超便捷和自發(fā)性還不是故事的全部。我在中國(guó)見(jiàn)到的另一趨勢(shì)是社群購(gòu)物。在世界上其他地方的社群購(gòu)物通常是個(gè)線性的過(guò)程。你在臉書(shū)上留意到一樣?xùn)|西，看了一會(huì)兒，然后登入亞馬遜或品牌網(wǎng)去買(mǎi)，輕而易舉。

ButinChinaitisaverydifferentthing.Onaverage,aconsumerwouldspendonehourontheirmobilephoneshopping.That’sthreetimeshigherthantheUnitedStates.Wheredoesthestickinesscomefrom?Whataretheyactuallydoingonthistinylittlescreen?SoletmetakeyouonamobileshoppingjourneythatIusuallywouldbeexperiencing.

但在中國(guó)截然不同。消費(fèi)者平均花一小時(shí)用手機(jī)購(gòu)物，是美國(guó)的三倍。黏著度從哪里來(lái)的呢?他們?cè)谛⌒〉氖謾C(jī)螢?zāi)簧系降鬃鲂┦裁?讓我?guī)銈儊?lái)一趟行動(dòng)上網(wǎng)的購(gòu)物旅程，是我平常的體驗(yàn)。

11pm,yes,that’susuallywhenIshop.IwashavingachatinaWeChatchatroomwithmyfriends.Oneofthemtookoutapackofsnackandpostedtheproductlinkinthatchatroom.Ihateit,becauseusuallyIwouldjustclickthatlinkandthenlandontheproductpage.Lotsofinformation,verycolorful,mind-blowing.Watcheditandthenashopassistantcameonlineandaskedme,"HowcanIhelpyoutonight?"OfcourseIboughtthatpackofsnack.WhatismorebeautifulisIknowthatthenextday,aroundnoontime,thatpackofsnackwillbedeliveredtomyoffice.Icaneatitandshareitwithmycolleaguesandthecostofdelivery,maximumonedollar.

晚上11點(diǎn)，沒(méi)錯(cuò)，我通常在這個(gè)時(shí)間購(gòu)物。我本來(lái)在微信群里跟朋友聊天。有人在群里發(fā)了一個(gè)零食的購(gòu)買(mǎi)鏈接。我討厭那行為，因?yàn)橥ǔＤ菚?huì)使我本能地點(diǎn)選那鏈接而登入網(wǎng)站。網(wǎng)頁(yè)的內(nèi)容很豐富，色彩絢麗，讓人眼前一亮?？戳艘粫?huì)兒，一個(gè)購(gòu)物助理上線，問(wèn)我：「今晚有什么我?guī)偷蒙厦?」當(dāng)然我買(mǎi)了那包零食。更妙的是我很清楚在第二天的中午時(shí)分，那包零食就會(huì)被送到我的辦公室，供我食用以及和同事們分享，而快遞的費(fèi)用不超過(guò)一美元。

JustwhenIwasabouttoleavethatshoppingsite,anotherscreenpoppedup.Thistimeitisthelivestreamingofagrassrootscelebrityteachingmehowtowearanewcoloroflipstick.Iwatchedfor30seconds--veryeasytounderstand--andalsothereisashoppinglinkrightnexttoit,clickedit,boughtitinafewseconds.

正當(dāng)我要離開(kāi)那網(wǎng)頁(yè)時(shí)，又跳出一個(gè)視窗，內(nèi)容是一個(gè)草根網(wǎng)紅的直播，教我如何用新款色彩的唇膏打扮自己。我看了30秒，簡(jiǎn)單易懂，旁邊還有一個(gè)購(gòu)買(mǎi)的連結(jié)，點(diǎn)一下，幾秒鐘就買(mǎi)好了。Backtothechatroom.Thegossipingisstillgoingon.AnotherfriendofminepostedtheQRcodeofanotherpackofsnack.Clickedit,boughtit.Sothewholeexperienceislikeyou’reexploringinanamusementpark.Itischaotic,itisfunandit’sevenalittlebitaddictive.Thisiswhat’shappeningwhenyouhavethisintegratedecosystem.Shoppingisembeddedinsocial,andsocialisevolvingintoamultidimensionalexperience.Theintegrationofecosystemsreachesawholenewlevel.Sodoesitsdominanceinallaspectsofourlife.

回到了微信群，大家還在閑聊著。另一個(gè)朋友發(fā)了個(gè)二維碼，是另一種零食的，又點(diǎn)選買(mǎi)了。整個(gè)購(gòu)物體驗(yàn)就像是在逛游樂(lè)園，混亂而有趣，甚至還使人上癮。有了整合的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)就會(huì)這樣，購(gòu)物被包藏在社交行為里，而社交進(jìn)化為多方的體驗(yàn)。整合的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)達(dá)到全新的層次，以致支配了我們?nèi)轿坏纳睢?/p>

Andofcourse,therearehugecommercialopportunitiesbehindit.AChinesesnackcompany,ThreeSquirrels,builtahalf-a-billion-dollarbusiness