銀行投資觀察銀行追求高質(zhì)量發(fā)展意味著什么

目錄索引一、期察銀板調(diào)整，H股于A股 6二、資議銀追高質(zhì)發(fā)意著么 6三、塊現(xiàn)：銀板下跌周換率升 10四、股現(xiàn)銀板調(diào)整 14五、向金：本銀板塊增高蘇銀（+0.32PCT） 19六、債現(xiàn)：本銀轉(zhuǎn)債均格漲0.50% 22七、利測(cè)蹤：24業(yè)績(jī)速期調(diào) 26八、險(xiǎn)示 30圖表索引圖1：行塊市數(shù)表現(xiàn) 7圖2：行塊現(xiàn)盤(pán) 7圖3：板超收盤(pán) 8圖4：板絕收況 8圖5：2023Q4末募金持倉(cāng)北持倉(cāng)VS市場(chǎng)跌（%） 9圖6：銀行板塊、全A非金融石油石化指數(shù)表現(xiàn) 10圖7：銀行板塊、全A非金融石油石化區(qū)間換手率（周） 11圖8：盈：行 13圖9：相對(duì)市盈率：銀行/全A非金融石油石化 13圖10：凈：行 13圖11：相對(duì)市凈率：銀行/全A非金融石油石化 13圖12：息：行 13圖13：相對(duì)股息率：銀行/全A非金融石油石化 13圖14：向金有板塊值比 19圖15：行債對(duì)與相收益 24圖16：行債銀塊、轉(zhuǎn)指累收率 24圖17：行債性一覽至2024年4月12日） 24圖18：行債位一覽至2024年4月12日） 25圖19：有行利速預(yù)（2024E） 29圖20：有行收預(yù)測(cè)（2024E） 29圖21：有行利速預(yù)（2024E） 29圖22：有行收預(yù)測(cè)（2024E） 29圖23：份凈潤(rùn)預(yù)測(cè)（2024E） 29圖24：份營(yíng)增測(cè)（2024E） 29圖25：商凈潤(rùn)預(yù)測(cè)（2024E） 30圖26：商營(yíng)增測(cè)（2024E） 30圖27：商凈潤(rùn)預(yù)測(cè)（2024E） 30圖28：商營(yíng)增測(cè)（2024E） 30TOC\o"1-1"\h\z\u表1：信級(jí)業(yè)漲跌情（） 表2：信級(jí)業(yè)換手情（） 12表3：市行間幅情（） 15表4：市行間率情（） 16表5：市行對(duì)/相估值股率所分情況 17表6：A+H上銀行AH溢價(jià)及處位況 18表7：萬(wàn)級(jí)業(yè)資金股值比區(qū)變動(dòng)況周） 20表8：市行向持股值比區(qū)變情況周） 21表9：行債鍵一覽 22表10：行債間幅情（） 23表銀轉(zhuǎn)區(qū)換率情（） 23表12：A上銀凈潤(rùn)增預(yù)跟（2024E） 27表13：A上銀營(yíng)增速測(cè)蹤（2024E） 28一、本期觀察：銀行板塊調(diào)整，H股優(yōu)于A股本期觀察區(qū)間：20240408-20240412。本文數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源于數(shù)據(jù)。板塊表現(xiàn)方面（圖6-13，表1-2）：本期（20240408-20240412），全A下跌2.7%，銀行板塊整體（中信一級(jí)行業(yè)）下跌0.6%，排在所有行業(yè)第5位，跑贏萬(wàn)得全A。國(guó)-0.83%-0.60%-1.26%。0.4%，H0.9%A（表1.30%1.15%等，跌幅前三為平安銀行下跌3.82%、民生銀行下跌2.98%、青農(nóng)商行下跌2.92%。H股銀行漲幅前三為廣州農(nóng)商銀行上漲6.29%、浙商銀行上漲3.77%、中國(guó)上漲2.28%，跌幅前三為鄭州銀行下跌2.70%、農(nóng)業(yè)銀行下跌1.48%、江西銀行下跌1.28%。北向資金方面（圖14，表7-8）：數(shù)據(jù)顯示銀行業(yè)北向資金持股占比為2.25%，較上期末減持0.9bp，板塊獲增最高為蘇農(nóng)銀行。圖轉(zhuǎn)債06102065）等盈利預(yù)期方面（圖19-28，表12-13）：根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)，A股銀行24年凈利潤(rùn)增速、營(yíng)收增速一致預(yù)期環(huán)比上期分別變動(dòng)-0.24pct、-0.19pct。二、投資建議：銀行追求高質(zhì)量發(fā)展意味著什么近期，大行和股份行在業(yè)績(jī)發(fā)布會(huì)中普遍提到未來(lái)會(huì)減少規(guī)模訴求，這意味著信用供給的低價(jià)低效部分減少，供求會(huì)保持相對(duì)平衡，行業(yè)整體貸款加權(quán)利率下行的速度會(huì)驅(qū)緩。另外，低價(jià)信用通過(guò)高信用大型企業(yè)傳導(dǎo)到中小型銀行的負(fù)債端的量會(huì)減少，這意味著中小銀行獲取廉價(jià)負(fù)債的量會(huì)被擠壓，中小銀行一般存款的獲取難度會(huì)加大，追求過(guò)高規(guī)模增幅的中小銀行平衡資產(chǎn)負(fù)債的難度也會(huì)加大，除非中小202383近期市場(chǎng)由于數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布呈現(xiàn)了波動(dòng)調(diào)整，銀行股跑出了相對(duì)收益，但高股息已經(jīng)漸顯疲態(tài)，我們預(yù)計(jì)年內(nèi)最好的銀行絕對(duì)收益投資階段已經(jīng)過(guò)去，后續(xù)將會(huì)進(jìn)入平淡期，建議投資者降低絕對(duì)收益預(yù)期，以倉(cāng)位配置的眼光看待銀行股投資。圖1：銀行板塊和市場(chǎng)指數(shù)表現(xiàn)絕對(duì)收益行情區(qū)間表現(xiàn)(1.01-4.12)14.4%12.7%14.4%12.7%10.9%10.2%7.7%-4.6%-5.5%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，注：銀行指數(shù)為行業(yè)指數(shù):銀行，國(guó)有大行為中信行業(yè)指數(shù):國(guó)有大型銀行Ⅲ，股份行為中信行業(yè)指數(shù):全國(guó)性股份制銀行Ⅲ，城商行為中信行業(yè)指數(shù):城商行，農(nóng)商行為中信行業(yè)指數(shù):農(nóng)商行圖2：銀行板塊表現(xiàn)復(fù)盤(pán)11月

相對(duì)收益 銀行(申萬(wàn)1月--12.1412.1312.1212.09通脹數(shù)據(jù)..12.01《堅(jiān)定不移走中國(guó)特色金融發(fā)展之路》11.3011月PMI指數(shù)發(fā)布15.0%11.16中美元首會(huì)晤15.0%11.10鮑威爾“需要時(shí)繼續(xù)加息”9.11社融超預(yù)期

-雪球敲入，兩融強(qiáng)平1.2銀行開(kāi)門(mén)紅1.5央行工作會(huì)議1.1212月金融數(shù)據(jù)理納入考核，經(jīng)營(yíng)性物業(yè)貸款管理要求1.311月PMI指數(shù)發(fā)布2.91月社融超預(yù)期5年期LPR下調(diào)25BP23Q43.5兩會(huì)政府工作報(bào)告發(fā)布3.7前2月出口超市場(chǎng)預(yù)期3.152月社融增速低于預(yù)期10.0%5.0%

9.14降準(zhǔn)25BP9.21美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)議息會(huì)議0.0%10.11匯金增持四大行

10.169月金融數(shù)據(jù)10.18Q3經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)10.241萬(wàn)億特別國(guó)債10.31PMI數(shù)據(jù)

12.20LPR不變12.22

3.313月PMI超預(yù)期回升4.03中采回應(yīng)“PMI季調(diào)因子或不準(zhǔn)”3332023-09 2023-10 2023-11 2023-12 2024-01 2024-02 2024-03 2024-04數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，；注：銀行指數(shù)為行業(yè)指數(shù):銀行圖3：分板塊超額收益復(fù)盤(pán)國(guó)有大行(相) 股份行(相對(duì)) 城商行(相對(duì))農(nóng)商行(農(nóng)商行(相對(duì))2月-5月：-中特估 銀行(申萬(wàn))6月-8月：-小市值城農(nóng)商行高利潤(rùn)增速銀行(相對(duì))8月-12月：-高股息行情1月-：-險(xiǎn)資舉牌部分區(qū)域行30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，；銀行指數(shù)為行業(yè)指數(shù):銀行，國(guó)有大行為中信行業(yè)指數(shù):國(guó)有大型銀行Ⅲ，股份行為中信行業(yè)指數(shù):全國(guó)性股份制銀行Ⅲ，城商行為中信行業(yè)指數(shù):城商行，農(nóng)商行為中信行業(yè)指數(shù):農(nóng)商行，高利潤(rùn)增速銀行為凈利潤(rùn)同比增速處于上市銀行前1/5的銀行圖4：分板塊絕對(duì)收益情況40.0%

國(guó)有大行(絕) 股份行(絕對(duì)) 城商行(絕對(duì))農(nóng)商行(絕對(duì)) 銀行(申萬(wàn)) 高利潤(rùn)增銀行(絕對(duì))30.0%

2月-5月：-中特估

6月-8月：-小市值城農(nóng)商行

8月-12月：-高股息行情

1月-：-險(xiǎn)資舉牌部分區(qū)域行20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，；銀行指數(shù)為行業(yè)指數(shù):銀行，國(guó)有大行為中信行業(yè)指數(shù):國(guó)有大型銀行Ⅲ，股份行為中信行業(yè)指數(shù):全國(guó)性股份制銀行Ⅲ，城商行為中信行業(yè)指數(shù):城商行，農(nóng)商行為中信行業(yè)指數(shù):農(nóng)商行，高利潤(rùn)增速銀行為凈利潤(rùn)同比增速處于上市銀行前1/5的銀行圖5：2023Q4末公募基金持倉(cāng)+北向持倉(cāng)VS本期市場(chǎng)漲跌幅（%）00滬農(nóng)南京上海廈門(mén)銀行10農(nóng)業(yè)常熟招商寧波152025貴陽(yáng)長(zhǎng)沙光大浦發(fā)北京鄭州瑞豐無(wú)錫蘇州郵儲(chǔ)青農(nóng)民生重慶 渝農(nóng)平安青島紫金西安浙商華夏州業(yè)建設(shè)蘇農(nóng)中信4.003.002.00本期漲跌幅1.00本期漲跌幅0.00-1.00-2.00-3.00-4.00-5.00

基金+外資持股/自由流通股(%,2023Q4）數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，三、板塊表現(xiàn)：銀行板塊下跌，周度換手率上升漲跌幅：本期（2024/04/08-2024/04/12）銀行（中信一級(jí)行業(yè)）板塊整體下跌0.56%，在30個(gè)中信一級(jí)行業(yè)中排第5，跑贏全A（除金融、石油石化）指數(shù)約2.15個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。（0.34個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，在3030。估值：絕對(duì)估值方面，截至2024年04月12日，銀行板塊最新市盈率（TTM）5.22X，最新市凈率（最新財(cái)報(bào)，下同）0.57X。相對(duì)估值方面（銀行/全A（除金融、石油石化）指數(shù)），最新相對(duì)市盈率（TTM）為0.2，最新相對(duì)市凈率為0.29，處在歷史平均水平。圖6：銀行板塊、全A非金融石油石化指數(shù)表現(xiàn)10,000

全A非金融、石油石化 銀行 銀行/全A非金融、石油石化（右軸）

2.009,000

1.808,0001.607,0006,000

1.401.205,0004,000

1.002016/02/052016/03/252016/02/052016/03/252016/05/132016/07/012016/08/192016/10/072016/11/252017/01/132017/03/032017/04/212017/06/092017/07/282017/09/152017/11/032017/12/222018/02/092018/03/302018/05/182018/07/062018/08/242018/10/122018/11/302019/01/182019/03/082019/04/262019/06/142019/08/022019/09/202019/11/082019/12/272020/02/142020/04/032020/05/222020/07/102020/08/282020/10/162020/12/042021/01/222021/03/122021/04/302021/06/182021/08/062021/09/242021/11/122021/12/312022/02/182022/04/082022/05/272022/07/152022/09/022022/10/212022/12/092023/01/272023/03/172023/05/052023/06/232023/08/112023/09/292023/11/172024/01/052024/02/232024/04/12數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，圖7：銀行板塊、全A非金融石油石化區(qū)間換手率（周）全A非金融、石油石化 銀行（右軸）16.00% 12周期移動(dòng)平均(全A非金融、石油石化) 12周期移動(dòng)平均(銀行（右軸）)

4.00%14.00% 3.50%12.00% 3.00%10.00%8.00%

2.50%7.59%2.00%6.00%4.00%

1.50%0.95%1.00%2.00% 0.50%2017/06/022017/07/212017/06/022017/07/212017/09/082017/10/272017/12/152018/02/022018/03/232018/05/112018/06/292018/08/172018/10/052018/11/232019/01/112019/03/012019/04/192019/06/072019/07/262019/09/132019/11/012019/12/202020/02/072020/03/272020/05/152020/07/032020/08/212020/10/092020/11/272021/01/152021/03/052021/04/232021/06/112021/07/302021/09/172021/11/052021/12/242022/02/112022/04/012022/05/202022/07/082022/08/262022/10/142022/12/022023/01/202023/03/102023/04/282023/06/162023/08/042023/09/222023/11/102023/12/292024/02/162024/04/05數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，表1：中信一級(jí)行業(yè)區(qū)間漲跌幅情況（周）2024/4/122024/4/52024/3/292024/3/222024/3/152024/3/82024/3/1年初以來(lái)電力及公用事業(yè)1.99%0.43%1.25%-0.27%-0.80%3.61%-0.94%6.98%有色金屬1.87%6.68%3.72%-1.89%4.83%4.73%2.04%18.95%煤炭1.79%2.27%-0.76%0.45%-7.34%2.82%-1.16%14.75%鋼鐵-0.55%3.28%-0.02%-1.19%0.04%1.67%0.48%2.54%銀行-0.56%0.54%0.97%0.07%-1.44%0.38%-2.33%10.75%汽車(chē)-0.74%0.74%-2.11%0.91%6.54%-0.53%4.78%0.38%石油石化-0.85%3.34%4.28%-0.47%-2.60%5.15%-0.76%14.80%交通運(yùn)輸-1.01%1.74%0.48%-0.65%1.78%-0.16%-1.51%3.66%紡織服裝-1.27%2.49%-0.12%-1.11%2.57%1.46%0.60%-5.49%商貿(mào)零售-1.33%2.97%-1.97%0.34%2.74%-0.40%1.09%-4.76%通信-1.45%-1.79%-3.43%0.96%0.73%2.87%5.53%1.36%機(jī)械-1.80%0.41%-0.50%-0.19%1.40%1.78%5.16%-5.33%基礎(chǔ)化工-1.92%4.22%-0.03%-1.14%3.16%-1.15%2.63%-5.85%消費(fèi)者服務(wù)-2.10%0.43%-2.25%-0.64%6.13%-3.41%0.97%-5.92%家電-2.58%2.39%2.14%-1.93%-1.46%1.73%5.50%10.52%醫(yī)藥-3.08%0.41%-2.22%-2.19%4.62%-2.18%1.68%-14.21%綜合金融-3.63%0.03%-5.67%-0.33%1.06%-3.15%3.58%-10.92%綜合-3.66%1.72%-1.72%0.08%3.20%-2.84%1.07%-17.38%輕工制造-3.70%3.19%-1.24%0.74%4.57%-0.40%1.26%-6.95%電力設(shè)備及新能源-3.88%1.91%-1.25%-0.76%3.79%1.18%4.06%-4.33%傳媒-3.89%-1.68%-9.19%8.92%3.19%-2.32%3.51%-7.45%建材-3.91%2.76%-0.39%-2.38%2.86%-1.33%0.60%-6.70%電子-4.18%-0.30%-4.14%1.48%0.95%-0.17%7.02%-14.20%計(jì)算機(jī)-4.22%-2.73%-7.03%3.51%2.07%-1.07%8.14%-15.03%建筑-4.56%1.34%0.05%-0.23%0.73%0.23%-0.05%-3.82%國(guó)防軍工-4.88%-2.22%-1.03%1.00%2.73%-0.33%5.35%-14.14%食品飲料-5.61%1.28%-0.55%-0.87%5.01%-1.80%-0.74%-5.45%非銀行金融-5.71%0.18%-2.37%-1.47%-0.19%-2.38%0.39%-8.63%農(nóng)林牧漁-6.12%3.37%-0.23%4.51%-0.15%-0.33%-0.36%-8.45%房地產(chǎn)-7.27%-1.32%-1.91%-1.34%4.37%-3.93%-0.55%-17.04%數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，表2：中信一級(jí)行業(yè)區(qū)間換手率情況（周）2024/4/122024/4/52024/3/292024/3/222024/3/152024/3/82024/3/1年初以來(lái)有色金屬17.16%8.42%7.99%9.63%9.47%7.92%6.30%102.91%消費(fèi)者服務(wù)16.68%8.29%14.84%19.71%16.14%16.38%18.70%211.14%傳媒10.88%8.52%19.16%24.49%17.46%16.54%21.42%211.49%綜合10.35%5.99%8.47%8.27%6.99%6.40%10.41%119.21%計(jì)算機(jī)9.97%7.48%17.02%18.61%17.01%16.72%20.21%184.43%機(jī)械9.90%6.61%10.95%12.28%12.55%13.06%14.65%139.40%基礎(chǔ)化工9.44%6.54%8.41%8.40%7.74%6.96%8.90%104.42%汽車(chē)9.00%6.90%11.29%12.80%12.84%9.84%12.96%127.52%輕工制造9.00%5.69%9.55%8.81%8.41%7.76%10.65%117.39%農(nóng)林牧漁8.91%5.80%8.91%11.44%6.59%6.65%9.56%104.05%電子8.70%7.43%11.39%12.30%11.05%12.74%13.40%134.08%通信8.67%6.40%12.32%12.77%12.81%13.82%16.11%145.25%電力設(shè)備及新能源7.82%5.42%7.78%9.00%9.68%8.99%10.34%115.26%商貿(mào)零售7.63%4.31%5.64%6.56%6.06%6.54%8.39%97.69%紡織服裝7.26%5.50%7.73%8.35%8.66%8.53%10.67%126.24%家電6.82%5.19%9.01%10.67%9.46%10.42%10.36%109.61%建材6.59%4.48%6.75%7.49%8.19%7.84%9.72%112.22%國(guó)防軍工5.90%5.03%8.18%8.66%7.79%6.71%8.18%87.21%食品飲料5.90%3.63%5.54%6.09%6.33%5.01%6.61%80.08%醫(yī)藥5.87%3.99%6.80%8.32%8.12%6.88%8.54%94.67%房地產(chǎn)5.72%4.32%7.60%6.53%8.27%6.88%8.64%99.65%電力及公用事業(yè)5.40%2.71%3.99%4.13%4.75%4.51%4.86%59.46%煤炭5.34%3.02%4.33%5.55%5.56%5.46%5.82%69.36%綜合金融5.18%3.47%8.57%10.22%10.33%12.26%21.58%164.65%鋼鐵5.10%2.97%3.19%4.83%3.98%3.79%4.00%51.26%建筑5.04%3.75%5.60%6.30%6.56%6.15%7.29%87.31%交通運(yùn)輸3.10%2.10%2.60%2.75%3.03%2.79%3.54%42.01%非銀行金融2.81%2.06%3.39%4.36%3.75%3.97%6.47%56.35%石油石化1.98%1.41%1.76%1.61%1.71%1.77%1.82%24.42%銀行0.95%0.61%1.17%0.89%1.01%1.05%1.20%16.15%數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，3.006.50%5.50%4.50%3.50%2.50%1.50%數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Wind，廣發(fā)證券發(fā)展研究中心識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，發(fā)現(xiàn)價(jià)值3.006.50%5.50%4.50%3.50%2.50%1.50%數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Wind，廣發(fā)證券發(fā)展研究中心識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，發(fā)現(xiàn)價(jià)值 13/32 13/32

數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Wind，廣發(fā)證券發(fā)展研究中心圖12：股息率：銀行均值均值-1倍標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Wind，廣發(fā)證券發(fā)展研究中心圖12：股息率：銀行均值均值-1倍標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差1%分位均值+1均值+1倍標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差99%分位

2017/069.008.007.00 6.005.004.003.00數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Wind，廣發(fā)證券發(fā)展研究中心圖10：市凈率：銀行9.005.009.008.007.00 6.005.004.003.00數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Wind，廣發(fā)證券發(fā)展研究中心圖10：市凈率：銀行9.005.002017/122018/032018/062018/092018/122019/032019/062019/09銀行(銀行(中信)均值均值+1倍標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差均值-1倍標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差99%分位2020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/036.506.005.505.004.504.003.506.506.005.505.004.504.003.503.002.502.001.50 數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Wind，廣發(fā)證券發(fā)展研究中心請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀末頁(yè)的免責(zé)聲明請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀末頁(yè)的免責(zé)聲明

0.500.450.40 0.350.300.500.450.40 0.350.300.25 0.200.15數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Wind，廣發(fā)證券發(fā)展研究中心13：相對(duì)股息率：銀行/Wind全A非金融石油石化均值均值-1倍標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差 1%分位均值+1均值+1倍標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差99%分位

7.00 圖7.00 圖 0.400.350.300.250.200.15 0.10數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：0.400.350.300.250.200.15 0.10數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Wind，廣發(fā)證券發(fā)展研究中心圖11：相對(duì)市凈率：銀行/Wind全A非金融石油石化2017/122018/032018/062018/09均值均值均值均值-1倍標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差1%分位2019/032019/062019/092019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/12均值+1均值+1倍標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差99%分位2022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/03投資策略周報(bào)|銀行圖9：相對(duì)市盈率：銀行/Wind全A非金融石油石化圖8：市盈率：銀行均值+1倍標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差99%分位均值投資策略周報(bào)|銀行圖9：相對(duì)市盈率：銀行/Wind全A非金融石油石化圖8：市盈率：銀行均值+1倍標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差99%分位均值均值+1倍標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差均值-1倍標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差99%分位1%分位均值均值-1倍標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差1%分位四、個(gè)股表現(xiàn)：銀行板塊調(diào)整+1.30%+1.15%0.00%-0.83%、-0.60%、-1.26%。6.40%6.06%5.77%。0.56%、1.41%、2.21%、3.98%，交易活躍度較上一期均有所上升，農(nóng)商行整體交易活躍度更高。估值：國(guó)有大行、股份行、城商行、農(nóng)商行（中信三級(jí)行業(yè)）最新市盈率（TTM）分0.58X0.52X0.60X0.55X，（T130409310103、0.911.060.96。表3：上市銀行區(qū)間漲跌幅情況（周）2024/4/122024/4/52024/3/292024/3/222024/3/152024/3/82024/3/1年初以來(lái)蘇農(nóng)銀行1.30%2.00%0.00%0.89%-0.22%0.00%-1.75%12.02%建設(shè)銀行1.15%1.16%0.15%0.44%-3.94%1.14%-2.23%7.99%交通銀行0.61%2.68%1.60%0.81%-2.52%0.47%-2.62%14.11%興業(yè)銀行0.52%-2.34%-3.01%-0.73%-0.55%-0.60%-1.66%-4.44%華夏銀行0.46%1.08%2.53%0.48%-1.56%0.79%-2.76%17.08%杭州銀行0.27%1.89%2.59%-0.73%-2.15%1.36%-3.85%13.39%中國(guó)銀行0.22%1.82%0.23%0.92%-4.40%1.56%-2.61%12.53%寧波銀行-0.09%2.67%-0.48%-2.03%-1.03%-2.95%-3.55%5.22%南京銀行-0.11%1.56%0.56%-0.89%0.00%3.21%-0.11%23.17%常熟銀行-0.14%2.10%5.47%-1.02%-1.01%-0.58%-2.80%13.93%上海銀行-0.15%1.04%1.20%0.45%-0.15%0.76%-1.20%13.57%工商銀行-0.19%0.95%0.57%0.77%-3.34%0.94%-2.55%11.30%成都銀行-0.22%1.18%4.53%-1.21%-2.52%2.82%-4.09%21.94%農(nóng)業(yè)銀行-0.23%1.42%1.20%0.48%-2.58%0.71%-0.47%17.58%江蘇銀行-0.25%0.25%2.73%0.00%-0.77%1.84%-3.06%18.09%招商銀行-0.34%0.09%3.21%0.06%-1.55%-0.85%-3.07%15.46%廈門(mén)銀行-0.38%2.11%0.00%-0.38%-0.95%-0.56%-0.56%4.73%張家港行-0.50%1.51%0.00%-1.00%-0.50%-0.74%-2.17%3.35%江陰銀行-0.52%4.05%0.54%-0.27%-1.07%0.27%-2.87%7.89%滬農(nóng)商行-0.58%1.77%1.80%4.56%-1.40%0.94%-1.84%19.34%齊魯銀行-0.67%3.73%0.94%-0.93%-1.15%0.23%-2.04%13.04%青島銀行-0.90%2.79%0.31%-0.31%-1.52%0.61%-1.51%7.87%貴陽(yáng)銀行-0.91%1.67%0.56%-0.92%-0.92%-0.36%-2.66%5.64%長(zhǎng)沙銀行-1.01%1.81%1.17%-0.78%-0.52%0.78%-1.91%14.52%紫金銀行-1.15%1.96%-0.78%-0.77%-0.77%-1.88%-1.12%1.58%西安銀行-1.16%2.06%-1.74%-1.15%0.29%-0.57%-1.13%2.70%蘭州銀行-1.20%0.81%-2.75%-1.54%0.78%-3.75%-0.37%-5.00%光大銀行-1.31%-1.92%-4.88%-0.30%1.23%0.93%-1.83%4.14%浦發(fā)銀行-1.38%1.40%1.28%-0.71%-0.42%0.14%-2.34%7.70%北京銀行-1.58%0.53%0.18%3.48%0.18%4.81%-2.44%23.62%浙商銀行-1.67%0.33%1.36%3.87%1.43%0.36%-1.06%17.06%鄭州銀行-2.04%0.51%-3.47%-1.46%-0.49%-1.44%-0.48%-4.48%蘇州銀行-2.10%-0.14%3.47%-1.56%-1.40%1.57%-4.23%8.36%瑞豐銀行-2.20%1.01%-1.39%-1.37%0.59%-2.31%0.00%-1.01%無(wú)錫銀行-2.33%0.19%0.59%-0.20%-0.19%-1.16%-2.08%-0.40%郵儲(chǔ)銀行-2.34%-0.84%0.21%0.00%-2.47%0.41%-3.01%5.75%渝農(nóng)商行-2.78%0.43%3.79%-0.22%-2.60%3.13%-1.10%11.52%重慶銀行-2.79%2.31%2.22%0.00%-0.69%0.42%-1.90%5.17%青農(nóng)商行-2.92%1.48%1.12%-1.84%-1.09%0.36%-1.79%1.53%民生銀行-2.98%-0.49%2.27%-0.75%-1.97%0.25%-1.69%4.55%平安銀行-3.82%-0.57%1.54%-2.26%2.12%-1.05%-3.32%7.14%廣州農(nóng)商銀行H6.29%-0.63%-3.03%16.20%0.71%-6.00%-6.25%-23.18%浙商銀行H3.77%-7.42%3.15%0.00%1.83%0.46%-0.46%8.91%中國(guó)光大銀行H2.28%-2.67%-12.79%1.98%0.00%2.85%-2.38%-3.45%招商銀行H2.27%-0.16%2.48%-0.33%2.19%-2.31%-4.56%16.18%交通銀行H1.37%-0.58%-2.10%1.55%-0.96%0.77%-0.96%6.37%中國(guó)銀行H0.93%0.31%-0.92%1.56%1.26%2.92%-2.53%9.73%重慶農(nóng)村商業(yè)銀行H0.92%0.31%-0.31%0.00%-0.61%2.19%-1.54%8.25%工商銀行H0.50%0.76%-0.51%-0.50%-1.73%0.00%-2.17%4.45%重慶銀行H0.22%3.48%1.17%-0.23%-0.93%0.47%-0.69%12.88%渤海銀行H0.00%-1.96%-3.77%-0.93%-4.46%0.00%1.82%-11.50%建設(shè)銀行H-0.21%1.91%-1.67%0.42%-1.65%-0.41%-2.01%3.23%民生銀行H-0.36%1.11%-0.73%1.11%-2.17%-1.08%-1.41%3.02%青島銀行H-0.96%0.48%0.00%1.47%-0.97%0.49%-2.84%7.29%郵儲(chǔ)銀行H-1.04%-5.62%0.99%-0.98%-2.39%0.72%-1.89%2.41%江西銀行H-1.28%11.43%-1.41%1.43%0.00%1.45%0.00%6.94%農(nóng)業(yè)銀行H-1.48%2.42%0.00%2.48%-1.83%1.55%-2.42%10.63%鄭州銀行H-2.70%-8.64%-2.41%-1.19%1.20%-1.19%-1.18%-13.25%數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，表4：上市銀行區(qū)間換手率情況（周）2024/4/122024/4/52024/3/292024/3/222024/3/152024/3/82024/3/1年初以來(lái)蘇農(nóng)銀行6.40%4.42%7.03%5.57%5.30%5.27%7.24%103.13%瑞豐銀行6.06%4.55%9.30%7.45%9.20%11.36%16.12%225.21%廈門(mén)銀行5.77%3.40%5.29%3.90%4.27%6.04%9.12%84.54%紫金銀行5.51%3.65%5.82%5.17%5.09%5.52%8.10%94.30%江陰銀行4.76%5.66%5.17%4.19%3.45%4.64%6.01%76.15%無(wú)錫銀行4.47%3.04%4.44%3.29%3.74%5.09%4.89%71.71%張家港行4.47%3.42%4.62% 4.07% 3.72%4.82%6.62%77.75%齊魯銀行4.46%3.62%5.53%4.43%5.15%7.65%9.69%112.48%蘭州銀行4.30%3.06%6.69%6.37%6.14%8.46%13.52%108.30%青島銀行4.08%2.90%4.03%2.63%2.94%3.60%4.45%58.03%蘇州銀行4.07%2.25%4.53%2.62%3.61%5.18%5.97%71.44%貴陽(yáng)銀行4.04%2.45%4.61%3.66%3.96%4.16%5.83%68.39%建設(shè)銀行3.88%2.01%5.33%5.32%4.72%3.91%4.91%64.53%常熟銀行3.87%4.03%7.16%4.88%5.05%4.27%4.78%71.34%渝農(nóng)商行3.86%2.10%5.17%2.77%4.53%3.35%4.03%54.39%青農(nóng)商行3.35%2.00%3.77%3.15%3.10%4.43%5.10%63.62%重慶銀行3.28%1.81%2.57%1.46%2.03%1.96%2.79%56.05%鄭州銀行2.82%1.88%3.96%3.26%2.75%3.55%4.75%53.83%寧波銀行2.78%2.19%2.65%2.38%2.88%2.77%2.77%44.45%平安銀行2.74%1.68%3.17%2.95%5.04%4.10%5.98%54.66%浙商銀行2.68%1.85%3.51%2.89%2.72%2.06%2.44%43.28%江蘇銀行2.40%1.49%2.97%2.40%2.66%2.97%3.30%46.87%西安銀行2.22%1.37%2.21%2.09%2.56%2.91%7.50%49.08%成都銀行1.95%1.02%3.07%2.03%2.39%2.90%2.91%43.85%長(zhǎng)沙銀行1.77%1.07%2.37%1.83%2.27%2.12%2.26%33.30%滬農(nóng)商行1.76%1.73%3.38%3.03%2.44%2.34%2.95%48.32%光大銀行1.72%1.56%3.05%1.33%1.60%1.31%1.54%25.15%杭州銀行1.65%1.14%2.05%1.38%1.81%2.70%2.80%32.08%興業(yè)銀行1.56%1.41%1.64%0.85%1.10%1.20%1.54%21.58%北京銀行1.44%0.76%1.45%1.63%1.91%1.80%2.07%27.17%民生銀行1.25%0.79%1.60%0.92%1.04%1.15%1.31%19.40%交通銀行1.20%0.85%1.79%1.06%1.15%1.34%1.49%22.76%招商銀行1.11%0.78%1.80%1.31%1.46%1.44%1.37%23.45%上海銀行1.07%0.60%1.24%0.95%1.10%1.05%1.34%17.53%南京銀行1.06%0.55%1.06%0.87%1.39%1.54%1.46%19.99%華夏銀行1.01%0.62%1.28%0.88%1.03%1.15%1.65%18.87%郵儲(chǔ)銀行0.95%0.52%0.85%0.61%0.68%0.89%0.86%12.48%農(nóng)業(yè)銀行0.50%0.27%0.63%0.50%0.52%0.59%0.56%8.14%工商銀行0.49%0.27%0.52%0.41%0.56%0.59%0.57%7.72%浦發(fā)銀行0.46%0.33%0.53%0.50%0.44%0.48%0.57%8.69%中國(guó)銀行0.36%0.21%0.41%0.39%0.43%0.39%0.47%6.55%鄭州銀行H2.95%2.12%2.16%1.32%2.17%1.30%1.70%26.59%招商銀行H2.29%1.04%2.25%1.72%2.33%2.03%2.05%37.91%中國(guó)銀行H2.08%1.10%1.63%2.48%2.45%1.94%1.58%23.79%重慶農(nóng)村商業(yè)銀行H1.74%1.10%1.21%1.33%2.61%1.88%1.55%22.56%農(nóng)業(yè)銀行H1.58%1.05%1.51%1.56%1.89%1.78%2.21%25.13%浙商銀行H1.32%2.25%1.70%0.61%2.84%0.47%0.46%14.99%郵儲(chǔ)銀行H1.30%1.04%0.56%0.64%0.74%0.82%1.14%14.22%工商銀行H1.19%0.73%1.06%1.31%1.65%1.36%1.26%17.90%民生銀行H0.63%0.43%0.58%0.65%1.19%0.90%1.00%10.62%建設(shè)銀行H0.60%0.39%0.50%0.63%0.68%0.61%0.66%9.05%中國(guó)光大銀行H0.50%0.69%1.29%0.37%0.49%0.63%0.64%7.58%重慶銀行H0.46%0.57%0.60%0.36%0.47%0.55%0.53%6.98%青島銀行H0.33%0.39%0.33%0.33%0.48%0.51%0.74%8.25%交通銀行H0.31%0.22%0.31%0.24%0.35%0.27%0.27%3.92%江西銀行H0.30%0.18%0.26%0.13%0.04%0.09%0.23%2.02%渤海銀行H0.14%0.14%0.11%0.07%0.12%0.07%0.13%2.22%廣州農(nóng)商銀行H0.00%0.00%0.00%0.03%0.03%0.01%0.00%0.12%數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，表5：上市銀行絕對(duì)/相對(duì)估值、股息率及所處分位情況單家銀行（PE、PB單位：倍） 單家銀行/銀行板塊（PE、PB單位：倍）PE所處分位PB所處分位股息率所處分位PE所處分位PB分位股息分位工商銀行5.2131.90%0.5619.80%5.70%31.90%1.0067.80%0.9852.20%1.089.10%建設(shè)銀行5.2833.80%0.6021.60%5.53%33.80%1.0164.50%1.0563.50%1.0412.40%農(nóng)業(yè)銀行5.5643.00%0.6238.30%5.19%43.00%1.0699.40%1.0999.10%0.983.30%中國(guó)銀行5.7052.40%0.5942.30%5.17%52.40%1.0995.70%1.0496.90%0.976.70%郵儲(chǔ)銀行5.2920.80%0.586.30%5.61%20.80%1.0144.80%1.0245.50%1.0697.70%交通銀行5.2550.30%0.5344.90%5.69%50.30%1.0088.30%0.9499.50%1.077.60%招商銀行5.535.70%0.874.90%5.41%5.70%1.062.30%1.5423.10%1.0296.40%興業(yè)銀行4.1719.00% 0.453.00%7.67%19.00%0.8011.80%0.800.20%1.4599.00%浦發(fā)銀行5.7058.60%0.344.30%4.49%58.60%1.0995.10%0.601.50%0.85 59.20%民生銀行4.7820.50%0.3213.60%5.47%20.50%0.9151.60%0.5716.70%1.0349.20%光大銀行4.3729.20%0.404.30%6.29%29.20%0.8434.90% 0.700.00%1.1963.50%平安銀行4.204.40%0.492.60%2.83%4.40%0.802.40%0.852.20%0.5399.00%華夏銀行3.9732.40%0.3827.30%5.82%32.40%0.7650.40%0.6651.50%1.1071.80%浙商銀行5.3842.40%0.5033.50%5.52%42.40%1.0358.60%0.8861.00%1.0475.10%北京銀行4.6232.30%0.4832.20%5.54%32.30%0.8860.20%0.8460.90%1.0429.20%江蘇銀行4.7528.50%0.7042.00%5.25%28.50%0.9148.30%1.2379.10%0.9964.40%寧波銀行5.472.20%0.792.10%2.36%2.20%1.050.40%1.391.00%0.4565.80%南京銀行5.0211.30%0.709.70%5.87%11.30%0.9632.70%1.2343.60% 69.60%杭州銀行4.686.00%0.725.10% 3.52%6.00%0.907.70%1.2844.60%0.6671.70%成都銀行4.579.30%0.8519.20%5.59%9.30%0.8832.40%1.5069.60%1.0587.90%長(zhǎng)沙銀行4.21 13.40%0.5212.90%4.48%13.40% 0.8131.90%0.92 34.90%0.8476.10%重慶銀行5.16 23.30% 0.52 7.40% 5.40% 23.30% 0.9960.10%0.9261.20%1.0296.80%貴陽(yáng)銀行3.3211.30%0.36 5.10% 5.52%11.30%0.642.70%0.645.30%1.0495.40%鄭州銀行9.44 75.20%0.410.20%0.00%75.20% 1.8191.60%0.72 30.40%0.00 0.00%青島銀行5.407.20%0.597.00%4.86%7.20%1.0334.30%1.0336.20%0.9288.50%蘇州銀行5.607.20%0.678.60%4.71%7.20%1.0741.10%1.1958.30%0.8995.30%齊魯銀行5.0526.10%0.5915.00%3.99%26.10%0.9767.10%1.0566.50%0.7581.80%蘭州銀行7.560.30%0.500.30%4.86%0.30%1.4571.60%0.8972.20%0.9299.80%西安銀行5.9612.10%0.503.70%4.82%12.10%1.1434.90%0.8836.40%0.9175.80%渝農(nóng)商行4.7450.20%0.4549.50%5.96%50.20%0.9182.10%0.7984.80%1.1262.40%滬農(nóng)商行5.3360.50%0.6060.90%4.99%60.50%1.0275.30%1.0687.80%0.9482.40%青農(nóng)商行5.7620.00%0.453.40%0.00%20.00%1.1037.00% 0.7937.00%0.00 0.00%常熟銀行6.084.80%0.814.60%3.43%4.80%1.165.40%1.4319.30%0.6570.50%紫金銀行5.623.80%0.532.70%3.89%3.80%1.0832.80%0.93 34.40%0.7396.60%無(wú)錫銀行5.024.40%0.591.30%3.90%4.40%0.963.80%1.035.30%0.7383.90%張家港行4.803.20%0.613.00%4.99%3.20%0.928.10%1.0810.60%0.9499.20%蘇農(nóng)銀行4.948.10%0.559.50%3.65%8.10%0.958.50%0.9722.10%0.6988.00%江陰銀行4.997.20%0.574.10%4.15%7.20%0.964.50%1.006.50%0.7861.00%瑞豐銀行5.570.40%0.580.20%2.35%0.40%1.0764.30%1.0264.80%0.4491.90%工商銀行H3.6914.60% 0.388.90%8.25%14.60%0.713.20%0.6711.30%1.5684.60%建設(shè)銀行H3.3211.10%0.377.00%8.79%11.10%0.642.10%0.652.40%1.6692.20%農(nóng)業(yè)銀行H4.1738.00%0.4434.60%7.24%38.00%0.8065.50%0.7766.00% 1.36 9.40%中國(guó)銀行H4.0336.20%0.3928.10%7.70%36.20%0.7759.40%0.6959.60%1.4526.00%郵儲(chǔ)銀行H4.244.50%0.443.30%7.32%4.50%0.815.00%0.7712.20%1.3896.70%交通銀行H4.0937.00%0.3820.80%7.87%37.00%0.7862.40%0.6764.60%1.4829.70%招商銀行H5.086.10%0.784.30%5.98%6.10%0.973.70%1.3720.20%1.1391.70%民生銀行H3.4412.70%0.2011.20%8.64%12.70%0.6636.20%0.3612.20%1.6354.70%中國(guó)光大銀行H3.3329.30%0.27 3.20% 9.28%29.30%0.6434.40%0.474.50%1.7577.50%浙商銀行H3.893.70%0.347.70%8.35%3.70%0.740.50%0.605.50%1.5789.80%渤海銀行H3.9049.00%0.175.60%0.00%49.00%0.7570.40%0.3059.10%0.000.00%重慶銀行H2.9829.50%0.2822.30%9.67%29.50%0.5752.90%0.5043.20%1.8266.00%鄭州銀行H4.3331.00%0.140.20% 0.00%31.00%0.8370.20%0.250.20% 0.00 0.00%青島銀行H3.280.10%0.332.40%8.60%0.10%0.630.20%0.590.50%1.6297.80%江西銀行H6.23 37.40%0.118.00%7.20%37.40% 1.1955.10%0.1930.90%1.3695.30%重慶農(nóng)村商業(yè)銀行H3.1731.20%0.2930.40%9.20%31.20%0.6157.00%0.5146.70%1.7357.80%數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，表6：A+H上市銀行AH溢價(jià)率及所處分位情況所處分位2024/4/122024/4/52024/3/292024/3/222024/3/152024/3/82024/3/1年初交通銀行98.60%98.90%47.25%48.14%47.82%46.02%44.27%46.63%45.26%38.08%61.74%59.43%60.55%57.41%57.48%61.18%58.70%54.49%96.20%41.94%40.05%41.40%39.51%42.38%43.43%44.61%33.44%94.20%51.64%52.57%50.27%48.32%49.35%58.14%60.24%47.75%83.30%32.99%34.64%28.11%28.91%27.73%27.79%28.17%28.69%97.10%39.64%40.57%36.06%30.91%31.95%34.02%34.41%30.06%浙商銀行80.60%12.25%15.09%14.76%13.79%13.41%17.68%15.94%12.86%88.30%58.17%62.29%64.85%59.77%62.87%62.47%60.31%55.74%89.20%48.89%54.17%52.96%40.03%43.32%41.53%44.20%37.94%37.66%99.20%48.08%56.14%44.03%46.36%40.99%41.51%41.64%重慶銀行0.10%80.85%86.29%88.37%86.16%85.84%85.33%85.41%93.95%99.90%194.50%192.25%165.56%168.06%168.97%173.45%174.10%167.23%95.60%76.38%76.12%72.12%71.33%74.50%75.42%75.19%75.29%渝農(nóng)商行35.70%53.20%58.89%58.65%52.17%52.60%55.66%54.23%48.59%數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，五、北向資金：本期銀行板塊獲增較高為蘇農(nóng)銀行（+0.32PCT）數(shù)據(jù)顯示截至2024年04月12日，北向資金銀行業(yè)持股占比為2.25%，較上期末（2024/04/03）減持0.88bp。板塊內(nèi)部來(lái)看，北向資金持股比例最高的銀行個(gè)股前三為建設(shè)銀行（7.49%）、江蘇銀行（6.01%）、（5.63%）。本期增持比例前三為蘇農(nóng)銀行（0.32pct）、重慶銀行（0.16pct）、滬農(nóng)商行（0.16pct）；三季報(bào)披露以來(lái)增持比例前三為蘇農(nóng)銀行（1.90pct）、江蘇銀行（1.74pct）、建設(shè)銀行（1.38pct）。圖14：北向資金持有銀行板塊市值占比北向資金持股銀行

北向資金持股市值占流通市值比重(%) SW銀行指數(shù)收盤(pán)價(jià)-右軸

4,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,000數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，表7：申萬(wàn)一級(jí)行業(yè)北向資金持股市值占比及區(qū)間變動(dòng)情況（周）持股市值占總流2024/4/12通市值比重(%)區(qū)間增持比例(單位:BP)2024/4/122024/4/32024/3/282024/3/222024/3/152024/3/8近一年增持農(nóng)林牧漁2.233.50-2.322.150.582.410.14-6.08化工2.412.554.874.44-5.501.85-2.9718.24鋼鐵2.20-0.686.58-2.82 -8.90 -5.501.78-22.46有色金屬3.5514.91-10.177.95-3.79 15.54 0.47-13.61電子3.316.14-1.954.811.781.270.8347.01汽車(chē)3.844.594.787.11 -5.42 4.122.76130.74家用電器11.05-14.042.25 10.04 6.51-1.383.8320.59食品飲料5.24-4.27-3.884.140.385.282.77-43.35紡織服裝1.814.25-0.922.26-3.914.043.0590.31輕工制造1.58-0.122.271.30-10.363.54-5.10-94.19醫(yī)藥生物3.28-1.84-2.40-0.44-9.18-0.39-1.16-55.98公用事業(yè)2.80-0.09 -4.77 0.791.37-6.195.4032.01交通運(yùn)輸2.26-2.42-1.24-2.71-3.797.96-1.14-24.96房地產(chǎn)1.26-3.65-3.64-0.32-3.219.82-6.73-57.47商貿(mào)零售2.17-24.12 -10.15 3.15-10.4428.58-11.05-280.90社會(huì)服務(wù)1.43-16.740.75-5.26-10.471.34-12.46-146.72 銀行 2.25-0.88-1.97 5.38 -0.422.772.23-74.92非銀金融2.20-3.75-0.12-0.790.501.76-1.53-62.63綜合0.68-3.61-2.940.072.016.06-4.0168.42建筑材料3.77-14.473.284.64-20.5410.64-7.39-194.25建筑裝飾2.01-2.81-0.296.30-4.08-1.632.1713.39電力設(shè)備5.482.71-0.416.045.74 16.94 1.65-68.51機(jī)械設(shè)備3.51-0.033.334.23-7.98-7.393.70-34.98國(guó)防軍工1.13-2.940.682.71-0.85-0.460.074.73計(jì)算機(jī)1.88-4.21-2.83-0.95-6.31-2.50-9.88-99.47傳媒2.80-0.625.15-1.96-2.93-4.51-8.77-57.64通信2.892.631.450.23-2.563.2611.6376.10煤炭2.09-1.44-3.45-2.52-4.904.442.89-46.50石油石化1.17-1.77-1.290.57 -0.02 2.330.58-14.93環(huán)保0.772.10 -0.12 -1.70-4.03-1.09-1.618.91美容護(hù)理4.6012.513.85-28.55-15.7710.56-43.25-195.42數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，表8：上市銀行北向資金持股市值占比及區(qū)間變動(dòng)情況（周）2024/4/12 北向資金持股比例區(qū)間增持比例(單位:BP)2024/4/122024/4/32024/3/282024/3/222024/3/15三季報(bào)以來(lái)年初以來(lái)工商銀行1.03%-1.00-1.001.00--1.0019.0020.00建設(shè)銀行7.49%-3.00-2.00-12.00-9.001.00138.0082.00農(nóng)業(yè)銀行0.99%-3.00--1.003.00-1.0017.0014.00中國(guó)銀行0.83%-3.00-1.001.001.0012.0013.00郵儲(chǔ)銀行1.26%-4.00-3.005.004.003.0039.0039.00交通銀行3.57%-2.00-3.0010.005.002.0063.0091.00招商銀行5.63%-4.00-14.00-4.00-4.0049.00興業(yè)銀行3.94%7.00-2.0011.002.004.0055.0096.00浦發(fā)銀行2.38%--1.008.002.005.0026.0041.00民生銀行2.70%-1.007.00-2.00-3.0066.0051.00光大銀行2.30%--3.00-8.001.0012.0030.0067.00平安銀行3.38%-8.12-3.429.28-23.2520.99-166.54-43.40華夏銀行3.06%4.002.0011.00-1.00-1.00-42.00-21.00浙商銀行2.17%-5.003.001.0013.003.0037.0060.00北京銀行4.50%5.003.001.00-6.00-9.0036.0075.00江蘇銀行6.01%4.00 9.0017.00-1.00-3.00174.00230.00上海銀行3.98%11.004.0010.004.002.0029.0052.00寧波銀行3.98%-5.208.220.45-19.464.58-126.78-64.44南京銀行2.21%9.001.005.00-5.007.0028.0036.00杭州銀行2.76%11.004.0015.00-1.001.0080.0065.00成都銀行4.19%2.002.0011.00-6.005.00-54.0042.00長(zhǎng)沙銀行2.50%9.002.003.00-6.006.00-14.0011.00重慶銀行1.80%16.007.008.005.00-11.00-106.00-126.00貴陽(yáng)銀行3.92%7.009.002.00-13.00-15.00-67.0059.00鄭州銀行0.51%-2.78-4.052.18-7.39-0.22-18.39-10.76青島銀行1.25%5.252.092.409.12-23.16-81.080.95蘇州銀行2.31%8.97 3.2918.09-8.25-0.94-9.2461.55齊魯銀行3.85%6.007.00-6.00-13.00-165.00-26.00西安銀行1.46%9.008.005.00-4.008.0029.0048.00廈門(mén)銀行5.56%9.0013.0018.00-5.00-22.00-149.00-47.00蘭州銀行0.40%-3.841.24-7.14-4.005.05-7.02-23.21渝農(nóng)商行4.26%-17.00-3.0023.005.00-28.00-66.00-6.00滬農(nóng)商行5.48%16.001.0019.0020.003.0039.00135.00青農(nóng)商行2.31%-2.309.759.77-5.96-8.3857.5471.72常熟銀行3.35%3.0029.0038.00-56.00-30.00-62.009.00張家港行4.12%5.1613.163.66-6.294.8981.94151.58江陰銀行4.15%-4.7711.2913.581.58-13.8365.8483.54無(wú)錫銀行0.96%-19.00-2.006.00-1.00-5.00-61.0015.00紫金銀行1.23%-4.0012.00-10.00-22.00-4.0011.0020.00瑞豐銀行1.70%1.006.00-41.00-8.0030.00-125.00-46.00蘇農(nóng)銀行3.72%32.0026.009.007.0015.00190.00196.00數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，，注：持股比例分母為A股流通股，郵儲(chǔ)銀行2023年6月12日有558億股限售股解禁六、轉(zhuǎn)債表現(xiàn)：本期銀行轉(zhuǎn)債平均價(jià)格上漲0.50%0.160.56%+1.02%+0.65%6.03%3.77%。截至2024年04月1215121.0717.26%25.91%。表9：銀行轉(zhuǎn)債關(guān)鍵信息一覽2024/4/12純債溢轉(zhuǎn)股溢平價(jià)底價(jià)溢價(jià)最新轉(zhuǎn)債價(jià)格平價(jià)底價(jià)下修最大幅度觸發(fā)強(qiáng)贖正股最新余額億已轉(zhuǎn)股剩余期最新轉(zhuǎn)股價(jià)格價(jià)率(%)價(jià)率(%)(元)(元)比例(%)限(年)率(%)(元)()漲幅()元)(元)齊魯轉(zhuǎn)債5.2633.82-21.34107.7480.51102.3561.4766.0517.444.635.49常銀轉(zhuǎn)債16.8824.77-6.32116.0092.9899.2539.8260.000.004.437.83重銀轉(zhuǎn)債0.4851.19-33.54105.4069.71104.9086.48129.990.003.9510.50成銀轉(zhuǎn)債19.1514.843.75120.09104.57100.7924.3251.9735.043.8913.13興業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)債0.6657.80-36.21104.9566.51104.2695.46499.970.013.7123.29南銀轉(zhuǎn)債11.5614.88-2.89114.6299.78102.7530.29166.1716.923.179.11蘇行轉(zhuǎn)債14.3117.26-2.52121.07103.24105.9125.9149.990.013.006.78杭銀轉(zhuǎn)債9.0021.85-10.54112.9992.73103.6640.19149.990.012.9612.24上銀轉(zhuǎn)債0.3061.54-37.91111.4268.97111.0888.48199.980.012.799.83青農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)債-0.0466.53-39.98104.9763.03105.02106.2450.000.012.374.22紫銀轉(zhuǎn)債0.4062.24-38.12108.3066.75107.8794.7545.000.012.283.85浦發(fā)轉(zhuǎn)債-0.03103.19-50.80109.4253.85109.45141.40499.990.001.5413.24張行轉(zhuǎn)債0.9317.30-13.95108.6392.61107.6240.3724.970.120.584.33蘇農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)債0.3018.55-15.40109.6192.46109.2940.6012.8948.460.315.04數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，表10：銀行轉(zhuǎn)債區(qū)間漲跌幅情況（周）2024/4/122024/4/52024/3/292024/3/222024/3/152024/3/82024/3/1年初以來(lái)齊魯轉(zhuǎn)債1.02%0.95%-0.11%0.84%-0.11%-0.22%0.36%7.38%常銀轉(zhuǎn)債0.65%0.30%0.58%-0.01%1.16%0.23%-1.03%6.62%紫銀轉(zhuǎn)債0.58%0.34%-0.10%0.15%-0.33%0.10%0.16%2.50%成銀轉(zhuǎn)債0.57%1.05%1.06%0.62%-1.19%0.09%-2.16%6.97%興業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)債0.56%0.19%-0.16%0.43%-0.35%0.31%0.02%2.98%杭銀轉(zhuǎn)債0.52%0.67%-0.25%0.90%-0.74%-0.02%-0.82%4.37%南銀轉(zhuǎn)債0.52%0.06%0.32%0.27%0.06%0.65%-0.97%8.12%上銀轉(zhuǎn)債0.47%0.00%0.09%0.27%-0.38%0.33%0.06%1.19%重銀轉(zhuǎn)債0.43%0.30%-0.28%0.40%-0.46%0.23%0.11%3.03%青農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)債0.38%0.35%-0.38%0.38%-0.36%0.21%0.16%2.45%浦發(fā)轉(zhuǎn)債0.32%0.07%0.06%0.18%-0.20%0.19%0.00%1.64%蘇農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)債0.19%0.13%0.02%0.13%-0.03%-0.06%-0.20%0.97%張行轉(zhuǎn)債0.17%0.14%-0.30%0.11%-0.14%-0.35%-0.34%0.41%蘇行轉(zhuǎn)債-0.34%-0.79%2.36%0.16%-0.13%0.50%-1.11%4.19%數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，表11：銀行轉(zhuǎn)債區(qū)間換手率情況（周）2024/4/122024/4/52024/3/292024/3/222024/3/152024/3/82024/3/1年初以來(lái)蘇農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)債6.03%2.67%5.05%6.56%7.82%5.38%6.90%110.90%張行轉(zhuǎn)債3.88%2.18%5.01%4.34%4.96%7.31%8.19%101.09%成銀轉(zhuǎn)債3.77%2.21%7.64%2.92%3.70%6.05%5.42%78.20%蘇行轉(zhuǎn)債3.33%1.60%6.93%3.86%4.96%4.12%6.64%82.81%齊魯轉(zhuǎn)債3.08%2.39%2.38%3.08%4.40%4.77%4.57%67.34%南銀轉(zhuǎn)債2.72%1.52%3.00%2.24%2.41%3.14%4.01%47.05%常銀轉(zhuǎn)債2.64%1.64%4.61%2.64%4.25%3.73%6.30%63.00%杭銀轉(zhuǎn)債2.41%1.22%2.67%2.80%2.10%2.64%3.09%47.81%青農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)債2.40%1.50%4.67%2.93%1.37%3.96%4.03%51.81%重銀轉(zhuǎn)債2.03%0.77%1.19%1.91%2.27%1.89%2.48%38.09%紫銀轉(zhuǎn)債1.82%1.38%2.30%2.14%2.77%2.28%4.38%44.29%上銀轉(zhuǎn)債1.77%1.15%2.15%1.66%2.66%2.18%3.37%36.31%浦發(fā)轉(zhuǎn)債1.37%0.90%1.82%1.94%3.46%2.19%1.94%33.30%興業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)債1.31%0.56%1.92%1.48%1.93%2.39%3.71%32.51%數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，圖15：銀行轉(zhuǎn)債絕對(duì)收與相對(duì)收益 圖16：銀行轉(zhuǎn)債、銀行塊、可轉(zhuǎn)債指數(shù)累收率0.300.290.290.280.280.270.270.260.26

銀行轉(zhuǎn)債加權(quán)平均價(jià)格/中證可轉(zhuǎn)換債券指數(shù)銀行轉(zhuǎn)債加權(quán)平均價(jià)格(右軸)

114112110108106104102

10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%

銀行轉(zhuǎn)加權(quán)均價(jià)格 中證銀指中證可換債指數(shù) 數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：， 數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，圖17：銀行轉(zhuǎn)債債性股性一覽（截至2024年4月12日）杭銀轉(zhuǎn)債張行轉(zhuǎn)債杭銀轉(zhuǎn)債張行轉(zhuǎn)債蘇農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)債浦發(fā)轉(zhuǎn)債紫銀農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)上銀債債南銀債轉(zhuǎn)債常銀2015純債溢價(jià)率(%)純債溢價(jià)率(%)50-50 20

40 60 80轉(zhuǎn)股溢價(jià)率(%)

100

120數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，圖18：銀行轉(zhuǎn)債價(jià)位估值一覽（截至2024年4月12日）蘇行蘇行成銀轉(zhuǎn)債轉(zhuǎn)債杭銀常銀興業(yè)上銀轉(zhuǎn)債青農(nóng)浦發(fā)100轉(zhuǎn)股溢價(jià)率(%)轉(zhuǎn)股溢價(jià)率(%)604020090 95

100

105

(元)

115

120

125數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，七、盈利預(yù)測(cè)跟蹤：24年業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鏊兕A(yù)期下調(diào)根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)，本期共10家銀行24年業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鏊僖恢骂A(yù)期有變化（工商銀行、農(nóng)業(yè)銀行、郵儲(chǔ)銀行、、浦發(fā)銀行、浙商銀行、北京銀行、寧波銀行、重慶銀行、渝農(nóng)商行）。本期A股銀行24年凈利潤(rùn)增速、營(yíng)收增速一致預(yù)期環(huán)比上期分別下降0.24pct、0.19pct24-0.06pct24-0.15pct、-0.20pct、-0.45pct、-0.41pct。表12：A股上市銀行凈利潤(rùn)增速預(yù)測(cè)跟蹤（2024E）評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)家數(shù)露前變動(dòng)（PCT）環(huán)比上期變動(dòng)（PCT）最新財(cái)報(bào)披露同比2024/4/122024/4/52024/3/292024/3/222024/3/152024/3/8工商銀行20-3.68-0.040.81%-1.09%-1.05%-0.86%1.76%1.76%1.76%建設(shè)銀行17-4.580.003.15%2.85%2.85%3.22%4.37%4.37%4.37%農(nóng)業(yè)銀行21-6.3