貴金屬投資技術(shù)分析英文版

InvestinginCommodities:ShortandLong-TermOutlookandImplementationStrategiesNicholasBrooks,HeadofResearchandInvestmentStrategy,ETFSecuritiesTelAvivInstitutionalInvestorConference,13March2013IntroducingETFSecurities

ETFSecuritiesisanindependentExchangeTradedProduct(ETP)issuer,withaspecialtyincommodity,currencyandthematicequityETPs.CommodityETPs:physically-backedandfutures-backedexposures;long,shortandleveragedexposuresforallliquidcommoditiesCurrencyETPs:longandshortexposurestoG-10andEmergingMarketcurrenciesinaconvenientstockexchangelistedformatEquityETPs:globalthematicandshortandleveragedexposuresAssetsundermanagement:US$30billion,withnearly$20bninEuropean-listedphysically-backedpreciousmetalproducts(31January2013)Over300ETPslistedonmajorstockexchangesacrossEurope,AsiaandNorthAmericaInvestorsincludeUCITSfunds,pensionfunds,familyoffices,privatebanks,wealthmanagersPartnersincludeBankofAmericaMerrillLynch,BankofNewYorkMellon,HSBC,MorganStanley,RoyalDutchShell,UBS,theWorldGoldCouncilETFSecurities:AboutusETFSecurities’productofferingsDiversifiedBroadAgricultureIndustrialMetalsEnergyLivestockPreciousMetalsUSEquitiesCommoditiesEuropeanEquitiesThematicEquitiesLongorShort

USD/EUR/GBPvsG10USDvsEMs(CNY&INR)Long&FXHedged(1x)Forward(1x)Short(-1x)DoubleLeveraged(2x)Physical(1x)Short(-1x)DoubleShort(-2x)Long(1x)DoubleLeveraged(2x)CommodityETCsEquityETFsCurrencyETCsLong(1x)TripleShort(-3x)TripleLong(3x)Theseproductsarelistedononeormoreofthefollowingexchanges:London,NewYork,HongKong,Tokyo,Frankfurt,Amsterdam,Paris,Sydney,andMilanWhyinvestincommodities?StrongperformanceanddiversificationbenefitsStrongrisk-adjustedreturns/pureplayonrisingE.M.demand–risingdemandfromrapidlyindustrializingemergingeconomiesandgrowingscarcity/risingextractioncostsarepushingcommoditypriceshigher.Lowvolatilitycomparedtoemergingmarketanddevelopedeconomyequitymarkets.Diversificationbenefitsduetohistoricallong-runlowcorrelationtotraditionalequityandbondbenchmarks.Calculationsbasedontotalreturnindexcumulativereturnsfrom15Jan2003to15Jan2013.Rebased100=15January2003.Source:ETFSecurities,BloombergPerformanceofEquityvs.CommodityBenchmarkIndicesStrongrelationshipbetweenpercapitaincomeandpercapitaconsumptionofcommoditiesChinaandIndiapercapitaincomes,andthereforepercapitaconsumptionofcommodities,stillinearlystagesTheriseofpercapitaincomesandthereforepercapitaconsumptionofcommoditiesinChinaandIndiaoverthenext10to20yearshasthepotentialtohaveanimmenseimpactontheabsolutesizeofdemandforcommoditiesgiventhesizeofthecountriespopulations.Commoditieshavehistoricallytendedtooutperformmostotherassetclassesduringequitymarketdownturns,providingdiversificationbenefitswhentheyareneededmost.EventhedgepropertiesofcommoditiesDiversificationpropertiesofcommoditiesHowtogainexposuretocommodities?Note:MonthlydatainUSDfromDec31,2002toDec31,2012.EquitiesproxiedusingMSCIWorldasbenchmark.BondsproxiedusingBarclaysCapitalBondCompositeGlobalasbenchmark.Risk-freeratesetat1.73%(1yearaverageofUS10Yr.rates).Sources:ETFSecurities,BloombergAddingbroadcommodityexposurehasboostedrisk-adjustedreturnsoftheaverageportfolio12%weightinDJ=UBSForwardIndexScenarioanalysisofdifferentcommodityexposuresNote:DatainUSD,31Dec2002-31Dec2012.“Equity”=MSCIWorldasbenchmark.“Bond”=BarclaysCapitalBondComposite-Globalasbenchmark.PMbasketisbasedonETFSPhysicalPreciousMetalsbasketcomprisinggold,silver,platinumandpalladium.“PTFE&B”=portfolioofequitiesandbonds.Risk-freeratesetat1.78%(1yearaverageofUS10Yr.rates).Source:ETFSecurities,BloombergPortfolioperformancewithdifferentcommodityexposuresandweightsPerformanceofEquities,BondsandCommodityIndicesover10yearsSources:ETFSecurities,BloombergSources:ETFSecurities,BloombergSources:ETFSecurities,BloombergSources:ETFSecurities,BloombergPerformanceofPortfolioswith2%inCommoditiesover10yearsPerformanceofPortfolioswith10%inCommoditiesover10yearsPerformanceofPortfolioswith5%inCommoditiesover10yearsThereareanumberofothercriticalfactorsthatmustbeconsideredwhenchoosingacommodityindextotrack:1)Commodity/sectordiversificationwithintheindex,2)Liquidityofunderlyingcommodityfuturestracked(affectstrackingperformance,3)Maturityofthecommodityfuturestheindextracks(affectsrollingcosts/benefit).DiverseperformancedependingoncommodityindexCalculationsbasedontotalreturnindexcumulativereturnsfrom15Jan2003to15Jan2013.Rebased100=December2002.Source:ETFSecurities,BloombergDiverseCommodityIndexPerformanceShorter-termtacticalconsiderationsShort-termperformancetiedtoglobalgrowthcycleWhatcommoditiestypicallyperformbestwhengrowthisrising?Source:Bloomberg,ETFSecuritiesAveragemonthlyperformanceduringthebest20%monthsofgrowthperformanceoverthepast10years(fromDecember2002toDecember2012).GrowthiscalculatedasthesimpleaverageofUSISMandEUPMIgrowthona3monthmovingaveragebasis.AverageMonthlyReturnsGoldnetspeculativelongsbacktoend-2008levelsTheclear-outofgoldpositioncouldhelpsetafirmerbaseforgoldpriceperformanceinthecomingmonths.Goldnetspeculativelongsbacktoend-2008levelsSummingitupGlobalgrowthisshowingsignsofrecovery,withtheUSandChinaleadingtheway.Themonetarypolicyofmajordevelopedeconomiesexpectedtoremainhighlyaccommodativein2013,withtheFedactivelyencouraginginvestorstomoveouttheriskspectrum.Risinggrowthandhighliquidityisconducivetocommodityperformance,withthemostcyclicalcommodities,particularlymetalsandenergytendingtooutperform.Correlationswithotherassetclasseshavedeclinedinrecentmonths,enhancingdiversificationbenefits.Commodityexposurescanenhancetherisk/returnprofileofatraditionalbalancedportfolioofequitiesandbonds.Commoditysupercycleremainsintact,asemergingmarketindustrialisationprocessremainsinnascentstages.Importanttounderstandtheuniquefundamentalcharacteristicsofcommoditysectors.ImportantInformationGeneralThiscommunicationhasbeenprovidedbyETFSecurities(UK)Limited(“ETFSUK”)whichisauthorisedandregulatedbytheUnitedKingdomFinancialServicesAuthority.TheproductsdiscussedinthisdocumentareissuedbyETFSCommoditySecuritiesLimited(“CSL”),ETFSHedgedCommoditySecuritiesLimited(“HCSL”),ETFSForeignExchangeLimited(“FXL”),ETFSIndustrialMetalSecuritiesLimited(“IML”),ETFSMetalSecuritiesLimited(“MSL”),ETFSOilSecuritiesLimited(“OSL”),GoldBullionSecuritiesLimited(“GBS”andtogetherwithCSL,HCSL,FXL,IML,MSLandOSLthe“Issuers”)andETFXFundCompanyplc(the“Company”).EachIssuerisregulatedbytheJerseyFinancialServicesCommission.TheCompanyisanopen-endedinvestmentcompanywithvariablecapitalhavingsegregatedliabilitybetweenitssub-funds(eacha“Fund”)andisorganisedunderthelawsofIreland.TheCompanyisregulated,andhasbeenauthorisedasaUCITSbytheCentralBankofIreland(the“FinancialRegulator”)pursuanttotheEuropeanCommunities(UndertakingforCollectiveInvestmentinTransferableSecurities)Regulations,2003(asamended).WhenbeingmadewithinItaly,thiscommunicationisfortheexclusiveuseofthe“qualifiedinvestors”anditscirculationamongthepublicisprohibited.WhenbeingmadewithinSwitzerland,thiscommunicationisfortheexclusiveuseby“QualifiedInvestors”(withinthemeaningofArticle10ofSection3oftheSwissCollectiveInvestmentSchemesAct(“CISA”)anditscirculationamongthepublicisprohibited.Thisdocumentisnot,andundernocircumstancesistobeconstruedas,anadvertisementoranyotherstepinfurtheranceofapublicofferingofsharesintheUnitedStatesoranyprovinceorterritorythereof,wherenoneoftheIssuers,theCompanyoranysecuritiesissuedbythemareauthorisedorregisteredfordistributionandwherenoprospectusforanyoftheIssuersortheCompanyhasbeenfiledwithanysecuritiescommissionorregulatoryauthority.Neitherthisdocumentnoranycopyhereofshouldbetaken,transmittedordistributed(directlyorindirectly)intotheUnitedStates.NeithertheIssuers,theCompanynoranysecuritiesissuedbythemhavebeenorwillberegisteredundertheUnitedStatesSecuritiesActof1933ortheInvestmentCompanyActof1940orqualifiedunderanyapplicablestatesecuritiesstatutes.ThisdocumentmaycontainindependentmarketcommentarypreparedbyETFSUKbasedonpubliclyavailableinformation.ETFSUKdoesnotwarrantorguaranteetheaccuracyorcorrectnessofanyinformationcontainedhereinandanyopinionsrelatedtoproductormarketactivitymaychange.Anythirdpartydataprovidersusedtosourcetheinformationinthiscommunicationmakenowarrantiesorrepresentationofanykindrelatingtosuchdata.Anyhistoricalperformanceincludedinthisdocumentmaybebasedonbacktesting.Backtestedperformanceispurelyhypotheticalandisprovidedinthisdocumentsolelyforinformationalpurposes.Backtesteddatadoesnotrepresentactualperformanceandshouldnotbeinterpretedasanindicationofactualorfutureperformance.Historicalperformanceisnotanindicationoforaguidetofutureperformance.Theinformationcontainedinthiscommunicationisneitheranofferforsalenorasolicitationofanoffertobuysecurities.Thiscommunicationshouldnotbeusedasthebasisforanyinvestmentdecision.ETFSUKisrequiredbytheUnitedKingdomFinancialServicesAuthority("FSA")toclarifythatitisnotactingforyouinanywayinrelationtotheinvestmentorinvestmentactivitytowhichthiscommunicationrelates.Inparticular,ETFSUKwillnotprovideanyinvestmentservicestoyouandoradviseyouonthemeritsof,ormakeanyrecommendationtoyouinrelationto,thetermsofanytransaction.NorepresentativeofETFSUKisauthorisedtobehaveinanywaywhichwouldleadyoutobelieveotherwise.ETFSUKisnot,therefore,responsibleforprovidingyouwiththeprotectionsaffordedtoitsclientsandyoushouldseekyourownindependentlegal,investmentandtaxorotheradviceasyouseefit.RiskWarningsSecuritiesissuedbyCSL,HCSL,FXLandOSLarecomplex,structuredproductsinvolvingasignificantdegreeofriskandarenotsuitableforalltypesofinvestor.SecuritiesofferedbytheIssuersandtheCompanyareaimedatsophisticated,professionalandinstitutionalinvestors.Anydecisiontoinvestshouldbebasedontheinformationcontainedintheprospectus(andanysupplementsthereto)oftherelevantIssuerortheCompanywhichincludes,interalia,informationoncertainrisksassociatedwithaninvestment.Thepriceofanysecuritiesmaygoupordownandaninvestormaynotgetbacktheamountinvested.SecuritiesmaybepricedinUSDollars,Euros,orSterling,andthevalueoftheinvestmentinothercurrencieswillbeaffectedbyexchangeratemovements.InvestmentsinthesecuritiesoftheIssuersorthesharesoftheCompanywhichprovideashortand/orleveragedexposureareonlysuitableforsophisticated,professionalandinstitutionalinvestorsinvestorswhounderstandleveragedandcompoundeddailyreturnsandarewillingtomagnifypotentiallossesbycomparisontoinvestmentswhichdonotincorporatethesestrategies.Overperiodsofgreaterthanoneday,investmentswithashortand/orleveragedexposuredonotnecessarilyprovideinvestorswithareturnequivalenttoareturnfromtheunleveragedlongorunleveragedshortinvestmentsmultipliedbytherelevantleveragefactor.Investorsshouldrefertothesectionentitled“RiskFactors”intherelevantprospectusforfurtherdetailsoftheseandotherrisksassociatedwithaninvestmentinthesecuritiesofferedbytheIssuersandtheCompany.TherelevantprospectusforeachIssuerandtheCompanymaybeobtainedfrom.PleasecontactETFSUKat+442074484330orinfo@formoreinformation.IssuersGeneral:TheFSAhasdeliveredtotheregulatorslistedbelowcertificatesofapprovalattestingthattheprospectusesoftheIssuersindicatedhavebeendrawnupinaccordancewithDirective2003/71/EC.ForDutch,French,GermanandItalianInvestors:Theprospectuses(andanysupplementsthereto)foreachoftheIssuershavebeenpassportedfromtheUnitedKingdomintoFrance,Germany,ItalyandtheNetherlandsandhavebeenfiledwiththel’AutoritédesMarchésFinanciers(AMF)inFrance,BundesanstaltfürFinanzdienstleistungsaufsicht(BaFin)inGermany,CONSOBandtheBankofItalyinItalyandtheAuthorityFinancialMarkets(AutoriteitFinanci?leMarkten)intheNetherlands.Copiesofprospectuses(andanysupplementsthereto)andrelatedregulatorydocumentation,includingannualreports,canbeobtainedinFrancefromHSBCFrance,103,AvenuedesChampsElysées,75008Paris.,inGermanyfromHSBCTrinkhaus&Burkhardt,AG,Konsortialgesch?ft,K?nigsalle21/23,40212DusseldorfandintheNetherlandsfromABNAMROBank(Nederland)N.V.(t)+31205272467orfaxedrequestto+31205271928.Theprospectuses(andanysupplementsthereto)foreachoftheIssuersmaybedistributedtoinvestorsinFrance,Germany,ItalyandtheNetherlands.ThisdocumentisnotafinancialanalysispursuanttoSection34boftheGermanSecuritiesTradingAct(Wertpapierhandelsgesetz–WpHG)andconsequentlydoesnotmeetalllegalrequirementstowarranttheobjectivityofafinancialanalysisandisalsonotsubjecttothebanontradingpriortothepublicationofafinancialanalysis.Thisdocumentisnotaddressedtoorintendeddirectlyorindirectly,to(a)anypersonswhodonotqualifyasqualifiedinvestors(gekwalificeerdebeleggers)withinthemeaningofsection1:1oftheDutchFinancialSupervisionActasamendedfromtimetotime;and/or(b)incircumstanceswhereotherexemptionsordispensationsfromtheprohibitiontheDutchFinancialSupervisionActortheExemptionRegulationoftheActonFinancialSupervisionapply.NoneoftheIssuersisrequiredtohavealicensepursuanttotheDutchFinancialSupervisionActasitisexemptfromanylicensingrequirementsandisnotregulatedbytheNetherlandsAuthorityfortheFinancialMarketsandconsequentlynoprudentialandconductofbusinesssupervisionwillbeexercised.ForAustrian,Danish,Finnish,Portuguese,SpanishandSwedishInvestors:

Theprospectuses(andanysupplementsthereto)foreachofCSL,HCSL,IML,MSLandFXLhavebeenpassportedfromtheUnitedKingdom

into

Austria,Denmark,Finland,Portugal,Spain,Swedenandhavebeenfiledwith?sterreichischeFinanzmarktaufsicht(AustrianFinancialMarketAuthority)inAustria,Finanstilsynet(FinancialSupervisoryAuthority)inDenmark,Finanssivalvonta(FinnishFinancialSupervisoryAuthority)inFinland,,Comiss?odoMercadodeValoresMobiliários(PortugueseSecuritiesMarketCommission)inPortugal,ComisiónNacionaldelMercadodeValores(SecuritiesMarketCommission)inSpainandtheFinansinspektionen(FinancialSupervisoryAuthority)inSweden.Theprospectuses(andanysupplementsthereto)fortheseentitiesmaybedistributedtoinvestorsinAustria,Finland,Portugal,Spain,DenmarkandSweden.ForBelgianInvestors:

Theprospectus(andanysupplementsthereto)forGBShasbeenpassportedfromtheUnitedKingdomintoBelgiumandhasbeenfiledwiththeCommissionBancair,FinanciéreetdesAssurancesinBelgium.Theprospectus(andanysupplementsthereto)forGBSmaybedistributedtoinvestorsinBelgium.OtherthanassetoutaboveinvestorsmaycontactETFSUKat+44(0)2074484330oratinfo@toobtaincopiesofprospectusesandrelatedregulatorydocumentation,includingannualreports.Otherthanasseparatelyindicated,thiscommunicationisbeingmadeona“privateplacement”basisandisintendedsolelyfortheprofessional/institutionalrecipienttowhichitisdelivered.SecuritiesissuedbyeachoftheIssuersaredirect,limitedrecourseobligationsoftherelevantIssueraloneandarenotobligationsoforguaranteedbyanyofUBSAG(“UBS”),MerrillLynchCommoditiesInc.(“MLCI”),MerrillLynchInternational(“MLI”),BankofAmericaCorporation(“BAC”),ShellTradingSwitzerland,ShellTreasury,HSBCBankUSAN.A.,JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,MorganStanley&CoInternationalplc,MorganStanley&Co.Incorporated,DeutscheBankAGanyoftheiraffiliatesoranyoneelseoranyoftheiraffiliates.

EachofUBS,MLCI,MLI,BAC,ShellTradingSwitzerland,ShellTreasury,HSBCBankUSAN.A.,JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,MorganStanley&CoInternationalplc,MorganStanley&Co.IncorporatedandDeutscheBankAGdisclaimsallandanyliabilitywhetherarisingintort,contractorotherwise(saveasreferredtoabove)whichitmighthaveinrespectofthisdocumentoritscontentsotherwisearisinginconnectionherewith.“DowJones,”“UBS”,DJ-UBSCISM,”,“DJ-UBSCI-F3SM,”andanyrelatedindicesorsub-indicesareservicemarksofDowJonesTrademarkHoldingsLLC(“DowJones”),CMEGroupIndexServicesLLC(“CMEIndexes”),UBSorUBSSecuritiesLLC(“UBSSecurities”),asthecasemaybe,andhavebeenlicensedforusebytheIssuer.ThesecuritiesissuedbyCSLandHCSLalthoughbasedoncomponentsoftheDowJonesUBSCommodityIndexMarenotsponsored,endorsed,soldorpromotedbyDowJones,CMEIndexes,UBS,UBSSecuritiesoranyoftheirrespectivesubsidiariesoraffiliates,andnoneofDowJones,CMEIndexes,UBS,UBSSecurities,oranyoftheirrespectivesubsidiariesoraffiliates,makesanyrepresentationregardingtheadvisabilityofinvestinginsuchproduct.TheMorganStanleyIndicesaretheexclusivepropertyofMorganStanley&Co.Incorporated(“MorganStanley”).MorganStanleyandtheMorganStanleyindexnamesareservicemark(s)ofMorganStanleyoritsaffiliatesandhavebeenlicensedforuseforcertainpurposesbyETFSecuritiesLimitedinrespectofthesecuritiesissuedbyFXL.ThesecuritiesissuedbyFXLarenotsponsored,endorsed,orpromotedbyMorganStanley,andMorganStanleybearsnoliabilitywithrespecttoanysuchfinancialsecurities.TheprospectusofFXLcontainsamoredetaileddescriptionofthelimitedrelationshipMorganStanleyhaswithFXLandanyrelatedfinancialsecurities.Nopurchaser,sellerorholderofsecuritiesissuedbyFXL,oranyotherpersonorentity,shoulduseorrefertoanyMorganStanleytradename,trademarkorservicemarktosponsor,endorse,marketorpromotethisproductwithoutfirstcontactingMorganStanleytodeterminewhetherMorganStanley’spermissionisrequired.UndernocircumstancesmayanypersonorentityclaimanyaffiliationwithMorganStanleywithoutthepriorwrittenpermissionofMorganStanley.FundsThisdocumenthaspreparedfordeliverytoprofessionalinvestorsintheRepublicofIrelandandothercountriesoftheEuropeanUnion/EuropeanEconomicAreainwhichcertainoftheFundsareregisteredwiththelocalfinancialregulator.PleasecontactETFSUKat+44(0)2074484330oratinfo@forfurtherinformationoftheCompanyanddetailsastowhichcountriesandtowhichcategoryofinvestorsthisdocumentcanbecommunicated.ForDanishInvestors:ThisdocumentcannotbecommunicatedtoinvestorsinDenmarkexceptinresponsetotheirunsolicitedrequest.ForDutchInvestors:EachFundhasbeenregisteredwiththeNetherlandsAuthorityfortheFinancialMarketsfollowingtheUCITSpassport-procedurepursuanttosection2:72oftheDutchFinancialSupervisionAct.ForFrenchinvestors:AnysubscriptionforsharesoftheFundswillbemadeonthebasisofthetermsoftheprospectus,thesimplifiedprospectusandanysupplementsoraddendathereto.TheCompanyisaUCITSgovernedbyIrishlegislationandapprovedbytheFinancialRegulatorasUCITScompliantwithEuropeanregulationsalthoughmaynothavetocomplywiththesamerulesasthoseapplicabletoasimilarproductapprovedinFrance.CertainoftheFundshavebeenregisteredformarketinginFrancebytheAuthorityFinancialMarkets(AutoritédesMarchésFinanciers)andmaybedistributedtoinvestorsinFrance.Copiesofalldocuments(i.e.theprospectus,thesimplifiedprospectus,anysupplementsoraddendathereto,thelatestannualreportsandthememorandumofincorporationandarticlesofassociation)areavailableinFrance,freeofcharge,attheFrenchCentralizingAgent,SociétéGénérale,SecuritiesServices,at29BoulevardHaussmann–75009Paris–France.ForG