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18September2024|4:30PMBST
EuropeanEconomicsAnalyst
EuroArea—ConsumptiontoRecoverMoreGradually
(Stott/Vashkinskaya)
nOneofthemoststrikingfeaturesofthiscycleintheEuroareahasbeentheabsenceofanimprovementinhouseholdconsumptiondespitethereboundinrealincome.Orconversely,thehouseholdsavingrateincreasedafurther2ppoverthelastthreequarters,wellaboveourandECBstaffexpectations.We
thereforerevisittheoutlookforhouseholdincome,savings,andconsumption.
nWeexpectrealdisposableincomegrowthtodeceleratetotrendbyearly2025,asthecatch-upofhouseholdrealincomecompletes.Non-wageincome—whichincludessourcesofincomesuchaspro?ts,nettransfers,interestreceipts,anddividends—madeasigni?cantcontributiontoincomegrowthinQ1,butwearepencillinginmoreconservativeassumptionsgoingforward.Ourbasecaseisstillthattheprocessofrebalancinglabourandcapitalincomeconcludeswithout
derailingthereturnofin?ationtotargetorofemploymentgrowthtotrend.
nTheincreaseinthehouseholdsavingrateinthe?rsthalfofthisyearishardto
explaininourstandingframework,asthefundamentaldriversweconsider—
economicuncertainty,depositrates,andthegapofwealth-to-incometo
trend—alleitherstabilisedorimproved.Weseeseveralpotentialexplanationsfortherecentincreaseinthehouseholdsavingrate,includingstickyconsumption
behaviour,changesinthecompositionofincome,ahighersensitivitytodepositrates,andpost-pandemichabit-resets.Takentogether,wenowexpectthesavingratetomoregraduallydeclinetoahigherterminallevel.
nOurrevisedforecastsforincomegrowthandthesavingrateimplyasmall
sequentialpick-upinconsumptioninthesecondhalfoftheyear,beforereturningtotrendinearly2025.OurforecastisabovetheECBstaffprojectionsoverthe
nextfewquarters,asweexpectslightlyhigherincomegrowthandanearlierdeclineinthesavingrate.OurforecastforGDPgrowthisbelowtrendinthesecondhalfof2024,givensigni?cantweaknessinothercomponents.
SvenJariStehn
+44(20)7774-8061|
jari.stehn@
GoldmanSachsInternational
FilippoTaddei
+44(20)7774-5458|
?lippo.taddei@
GoldmanSachsInternational
AlexandreStott
+33(1)4212-1108|
alexandre.stott@
GoldmanSachsBankEuropeSE-ParisBranch
JamesMoberly
+44(20)7774-9444|
james.r.moberly@
GoldmanSachsInternational
KatyaVashkinskaya
+44(20)7774-4833|
katya.vashkinskaya@
GoldmanSachsInternational
EuroArea—ConsumptiontoRecoverMoreGradually
OneofthemoststrikingfeaturesofthiscycleintheEuroareahasbeenthe
absenceofanimprovementinhouseholdconsumptiondespitethereboundinrealincome(Exhibit1,left).Orconversely,thehouseholdsavingrateincreasedafurther2ppoverthelastthreequarters(Exhibit1,right).
Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcerti?cationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto
/research/hedge.html.
GoldmanSachsEuropeanEconomicsAnalyst
Exhibit1:HouseholdIncomeGainsHaveOutpacedConsumption,ResultinginaHigherSavingRate
Ontheleft,disposableincomeinQ2isderivedfromourforecast.
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,HaverAnalytics
Thisweek’sAnalystthereforerevisitstheoutlookforhouseholdincome,savings,andconsumption.
RealIncomeGrowthPastthePeak
Wageincomeaccountsfor80%ofgrossdisposableincomeandhasbeenthemain
driverbehindtherecoveryinhouseholdrealincome.Compensation-per-employee
growthaveraged4.5%(annualised)inthe?rsthalfofthisyear,andwelookforagradualdecelerationto3%bytheendof2025,asthe
catch-up
ofhouseholdrealincome
completes(Exhibit2,left).WeseerisksskewedtowardsafastercoolinginwagegrowththanprojectedbytheECBstaffinSeptember(Exhibit2,right).
Exhibit2:WeLookforaRapidDecelerationinWageGrowthasRealCatch-upCompletes
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,HaverAnalytics,ECB
Weforecastsequentialrealincomegrowthtomoderatetotrendbyearly2025(Exhibit3,left).Non-wageincome—whichincludessourcesofincomesuchaspro?ts,net
18September20242
transfers,interestreceipts,anddividends—madeasigni?cantcontributiontoincome
growthinQ1,butwearepencillinginmoreconservativeassumptionsgoingforward.
Employmentalsogrewrapidlyinrecentquarters—followingstrongparticipationand
immigrationgains—butisnowbackattrendaccordingtoourforecast.Realincome
growsattrendin2025inourforecast,butstandsabovetheECBstaffprojections,partlybecauseoflowerin?ationassumptions(Exhibit3,right).
Exhibit3:WeForecastRealDisposableIncometoReturntoTrendby2025H1
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,HaverAnalytics,ECB
Ourforecastforhouseholdrealincomere?ectstheendofacatch-upprocesswhichrebalancedtheregion’stotalincomelossesbetweencapitalandlabourincome.Ourbasecaseisstillthatthisprocessconcludeswithoutderailingthereturnofin?ationtotargetorofemploymentgrowthtotrend.
SlowerandShallowerSavingRateDecline
Theincreaseinthehouseholdsavingrateinthe?rsthalfofthisyearishardtoexplaininour
standingframework
.Thefundamentalsdriversweconsider—economicuncertainty,
depositrates,andthegapofwealth-to-incometotrend—alleitherstabilisedor
improved(Exhibit4,left).OurmodelhascontinuedpointingtowardsadecreaseinthesavingrateandissettobesurprisedtotheupsideagaininQ2basedonGermanandFrenchdatareleasedsofar(Exhibit4,right).
18September20243
Exhibit4:TheHistoricalDriversoftheHouseholdSavingRateDoNotExplaintheUptickinH1
Ontheleft,seriesarescaledsuchthatanincreaseimpliesahighersavingrate.
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,HaverAnalytics
Weseeseveralpotentialexplanationsfortherecentincreaseinthehouseholdsavingrate.
First,thetimingofrecentincreasesinthesavingratecoincidingwithlargerealincomegainspointstoapotentialroleforstickyhouseholdconsumptionpatterns.Intuitively,
householdscouldbeslowtorampuptheirconsumptionwhenfacedwithasudden
increaseinincome.We?ndsomeevidenceofsuchconsumptionsmoothingbehaviourinthecross-sectionofthe?velargestEuroareaeconomies,asanexogenousincreaseinrealincomecontemporaneouslybooststhesavingrate(Exhibit5,left).Ourestimatesimplythattherecentrecoveryinrealincomecouldhaveboostedthesavingrateby
0.6ppinthe?rsthalfofthisyear(Exhibit5,right).Ourresultsalsoimplythatthistemporaryboostwouldfadeasrealincomereturnstotrendbyearlynextyear.
18September20244
Exhibit5:StickyHouseholdConsumptionBehaviourCouldbeTemporarilyBoostingtheSavingRate
Ontheleft,weshowtheimpulseresponseofthehouseholdsavingratetoanincreaseinincomegrowth,estimatedwithlocalprojectionsonanEA10panelbetween2000and2024.
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
Second,thecompositionofhouseholdincomegainsinthe?rstquarteroftheyearlooksparticularlyconducivetoahighersavingrate.Theshareofnon-wageincomeincreased0.5ppandistypicallyassociatedwithalowerpropensitytoconsume(Exhibit6,left).Thetworeasonsforthisarethatnon-wageincomeistypicallyreceivedinlessliquidformsandtendstobeskewedtowardsricherhouseholds.Estimatesfromtheacademic
literaturewouldbeconsistentwithanadditional0.2ppboosttothesavingratefromthechangeinthecompositionofhouseholdincomeinQ1.Apermanentincreaseinthe
shareofnon-wageincomewouldcontributetoincreasingtheterminalsavingrate.
Third,theequilibriumlevelforthesavingrate—consistentwithfundamentaldrivers—couldbehigherthiscyclethanimpliedbyhistoricalpatterns.Forinstance,lookingatthecross-sectionofthe?velargestEuroareaeconomiessuggeststhatsavingratesweremoreresponsivetoincreasesindepositratessince2022(Exhibit6,right).Thehigher
sensitivityofhouseholdtodepositratescouldberelatedtothesalienceofpolicyrate
increasesoverrecentyears,whichbroughtdepositinstrumentsbackintothemainstream.Weestimatethatthischannelcouldcurrentlybepushinguptheequilibriumratebyupto0.6pp.
18September20245
Exhibit6:TheCompositionofIncomeandaHigherSensitivitytoDepositRatesareLikelyPushingtheEquilibriumSavingRateHigher
Ontheright,theslopeofthe?ttedlinesisequivalenttothepanelOLScoef?cientofthesavingrateondepositratesaftercontrollingforcovariates.
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,HaverAnalytics
Fourth,weseereasonsforaresetinconsumptionhabitstoleavethesavingratehigherthanbeforetheCovidpandemic.Ourglobalteamhas
shown
thattheshortfallin
consumptioncomparedto2019ismostpronouncedforcategorieswhichunderwentlargedeclineduringthepandemic(Exhibit7,left).Intuitively,thereassessmentof
preferencesorspendinghabitspromptedbytheCovidpandemicmaybeweighingonspendingandboostingsavings.Thischannelwouldalsocontributetoincreasingtheterminalsavingrate.
Exhibit7:WeNowLookforaSlowerandShallowerSavingRateDecline
Ontheleft,bubblesizesareproportionaltocategoryweightsintheconsumptionbasket.
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,HaverAnalytics,ECB
Takentogether,wenowexpectthesavingratetomoregraduallydeclinetoahigher
terminallevel.Wearepencillingina0.3ppnormalisationinthesecondhalfofthisyeartore?ectfurtherimprovementinfundamentalsandsomeadjustmentinconsumptionbehaviour.WeassumeanearliernormalisationthaninECBstaffprojectionsbutamore
18September20246
gradualdeclineinto2025(Exhibit7,right)
ConsumptiontoRecoverMoreGradually
Ourrevisedforecastsforincomegrowthandthesavingrateimplyasequentialpick-upinconsumptioninthesecondhalfoftheyearbeforereturningtotrendinearly2025
(Exhibit8,left).OurforecastisabovetheECBstaffprojectionsoverthenextfew
quarters,asweexpectslightlyhigherincomegrowthandanearlierdeclineinthesavingrate(Exhibit8,right).
Exhibit8:WeForecastHouseholdConsumptiontoRunModeratelyAboveTrendin2024H2
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,HaverAnalytics,ECB
Theoutlookforhouseholdconsumptionhasshiftedfromarapidrecoveryinearly2024—whichdidnotmaterialise—toamoregradualimprovementinlate2024.OurforecastforGDPgrowthisbelowtrendinthesecondhalfof2024,givensigni?cantweaknessinothercomponents.
AlexandreStott
KatyaVashkinskaya
18September20247
GoldmanSachsEuropeanEconomicsAnalyst
DisclosureAppendix
RegAC
We,SvenJariStehn,FilippoTaddei,AlexandreStott,JamesMoberlyandKatyaVashkinskaya,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyre?ectourpersonalviews,whichhavenotbeenin?uencedbyconsiderationsofthe?rm’sbusinessorclientrelationships.
Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs’GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.
Disclosures
Regulatorydisclosures
DisclosuresrequiredbyUnitedStateslawsandregulations
Seecompany-speci?cregulatorydisclosuresaboveforanyofthefollowingdisclosuresrequiredastocompaniesreferredtointhisreport:managerorco-managerinapendingtransaction;1%orotherownership;compensationforcertainservices;typesofclientrelationships;managed/co-managedpublicofferingsinpriorperiods;directorships;forequitysecurities,marketmakingand/orspecialistrole.GoldmanSachstradesormaytradeasa
principalindebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)ofissuersdiscussedinthisreport.
Thefollowingareadditionalrequireddisclosures:Ownershipandmaterialcon?ictsofinterest:GoldmanSachspolicyprohibitsitsanalysts,professionalsreportingtoanalystsandmembersoftheirhouseholdsfromowningsecuritiesofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.
Analystcompensation:Analystsarepaidinpartbasedonthepro?tabilityofGoldmanSachs,whichincludesinvestmentbankingrevenues.Analyst
asof?cerordirector:GoldmanSachspolicygenerallyprohibitsitsanalysts,personsreportingtoanalystsormembersoftheirhouseholdsfromservingasanof?cer,directororadvisorofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.Non-U.S.Analysts:Non-U.S.analystsmaynotbe
associatedpersonsofGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCandthereforemaynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241orFINRARule2242restrictionsoncommunicationswithsubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbytheanalysts.
AdditionaldisclosuresrequiredunderthelawsandregulationsofjurisdictionsotherthantheUnitedStates
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BankingAct1959(Cth))inAustraliaanddonotprovidebankingservices,norcarryonabankingbusiness,inAustralia.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor“wholesaleclients”withinthemeaningoftheAustralianCorporationsAct,unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.In
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