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18September2024|4:30PMBST

EuropeanEconomicsAnalyst

EuroArea—ConsumptiontoRecoverMoreGradually

(Stott/Vashkinskaya)

nOneofthemoststrikingfeaturesofthiscycleintheEuroareahasbeentheabsenceofanimprovementinhouseholdconsumptiondespitethereboundinrealincome.Orconversely,thehouseholdsavingrateincreasedafurther2ppoverthelastthreequarters,wellaboveourandECBstaffexpectations.We

thereforerevisittheoutlookforhouseholdincome,savings,andconsumption.

nWeexpectrealdisposableincomegrowthtodeceleratetotrendbyearly2025,asthecatch-upofhouseholdrealincomecompletes.Non-wageincome—whichincludessourcesofincomesuchaspro?ts,nettransfers,interestreceipts,anddividends—madeasigni?cantcontributiontoincomegrowthinQ1,butwearepencillinginmoreconservativeassumptionsgoingforward.Ourbasecaseisstillthattheprocessofrebalancinglabourandcapitalincomeconcludeswithout

derailingthereturnofin?ationtotargetorofemploymentgrowthtotrend.

nTheincreaseinthehouseholdsavingrateinthe?rsthalfofthisyearishardto

explaininourstandingframework,asthefundamentaldriversweconsider—

economicuncertainty,depositrates,andthegapofwealth-to-incometo

trend—alleitherstabilisedorimproved.Weseeseveralpotentialexplanationsfortherecentincreaseinthehouseholdsavingrate,includingstickyconsumption

behaviour,changesinthecompositionofincome,ahighersensitivitytodepositrates,andpost-pandemichabit-resets.Takentogether,wenowexpectthesavingratetomoregraduallydeclinetoahigherterminallevel.

nOurrevisedforecastsforincomegrowthandthesavingrateimplyasmall

sequentialpick-upinconsumptioninthesecondhalfoftheyear,beforereturningtotrendinearly2025.OurforecastisabovetheECBstaffprojectionsoverthe

nextfewquarters,asweexpectslightlyhigherincomegrowthandanearlierdeclineinthesavingrate.OurforecastforGDPgrowthisbelowtrendinthesecondhalfof2024,givensigni?cantweaknessinothercomponents.

SvenJariStehn

+44(20)7774-8061|

jari.stehn@

GoldmanSachsInternational

FilippoTaddei

+44(20)7774-5458|

?lippo.taddei@

GoldmanSachsInternational

AlexandreStott

+33(1)4212-1108|

alexandre.stott@

GoldmanSachsBankEuropeSE-ParisBranch

JamesMoberly

+44(20)7774-9444|

james.r.moberly@

GoldmanSachsInternational

KatyaVashkinskaya

+44(20)7774-4833|

katya.vashkinskaya@

GoldmanSachsInternational

EuroArea—ConsumptiontoRecoverMoreGradually

OneofthemoststrikingfeaturesofthiscycleintheEuroareahasbeenthe

absenceofanimprovementinhouseholdconsumptiondespitethereboundinrealincome(Exhibit1,left).Orconversely,thehouseholdsavingrateincreasedafurther2ppoverthelastthreequarters(Exhibit1,right).

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcerti?cationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html.

GoldmanSachsEuropeanEconomicsAnalyst

Exhibit1:HouseholdIncomeGainsHaveOutpacedConsumption,ResultinginaHigherSavingRate

Ontheleft,disposableincomeinQ2isderivedfromourforecast.

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,HaverAnalytics

Thisweek’sAnalystthereforerevisitstheoutlookforhouseholdincome,savings,andconsumption.

RealIncomeGrowthPastthePeak

Wageincomeaccountsfor80%ofgrossdisposableincomeandhasbeenthemain

driverbehindtherecoveryinhouseholdrealincome.Compensation-per-employee

growthaveraged4.5%(annualised)inthe?rsthalfofthisyear,andwelookforagradualdecelerationto3%bytheendof2025,asthe

catch-up

ofhouseholdrealincome

completes(Exhibit2,left).WeseerisksskewedtowardsafastercoolinginwagegrowththanprojectedbytheECBstaffinSeptember(Exhibit2,right).

Exhibit2:WeLookforaRapidDecelerationinWageGrowthasRealCatch-upCompletes

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,HaverAnalytics,ECB

Weforecastsequentialrealincomegrowthtomoderatetotrendbyearly2025(Exhibit3,left).Non-wageincome—whichincludessourcesofincomesuchaspro?ts,net

18September20242

transfers,interestreceipts,anddividends—madeasigni?cantcontributiontoincome

growthinQ1,butwearepencillinginmoreconservativeassumptionsgoingforward.

Employmentalsogrewrapidlyinrecentquarters—followingstrongparticipationand

immigrationgains—butisnowbackattrendaccordingtoourforecast.Realincome

growsattrendin2025inourforecast,butstandsabovetheECBstaffprojections,partlybecauseoflowerin?ationassumptions(Exhibit3,right).

Exhibit3:WeForecastRealDisposableIncometoReturntoTrendby2025H1

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,HaverAnalytics,ECB

Ourforecastforhouseholdrealincomere?ectstheendofacatch-upprocesswhichrebalancedtheregion’stotalincomelossesbetweencapitalandlabourincome.Ourbasecaseisstillthatthisprocessconcludeswithoutderailingthereturnofin?ationtotargetorofemploymentgrowthtotrend.

SlowerandShallowerSavingRateDecline

Theincreaseinthehouseholdsavingrateinthe?rsthalfofthisyearishardtoexplaininour

standingframework

.Thefundamentalsdriversweconsider—economicuncertainty,

depositrates,andthegapofwealth-to-incometotrend—alleitherstabilisedor

improved(Exhibit4,left).OurmodelhascontinuedpointingtowardsadecreaseinthesavingrateandissettobesurprisedtotheupsideagaininQ2basedonGermanandFrenchdatareleasedsofar(Exhibit4,right).

18September20243

Exhibit4:TheHistoricalDriversoftheHouseholdSavingRateDoNotExplaintheUptickinH1

Ontheleft,seriesarescaledsuchthatanincreaseimpliesahighersavingrate.

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,HaverAnalytics

Weseeseveralpotentialexplanationsfortherecentincreaseinthehouseholdsavingrate.

First,thetimingofrecentincreasesinthesavingratecoincidingwithlargerealincomegainspointstoapotentialroleforstickyhouseholdconsumptionpatterns.Intuitively,

householdscouldbeslowtorampuptheirconsumptionwhenfacedwithasudden

increaseinincome.We?ndsomeevidenceofsuchconsumptionsmoothingbehaviourinthecross-sectionofthe?velargestEuroareaeconomies,asanexogenousincreaseinrealincomecontemporaneouslybooststhesavingrate(Exhibit5,left).Ourestimatesimplythattherecentrecoveryinrealincomecouldhaveboostedthesavingrateby

0.6ppinthe?rsthalfofthisyear(Exhibit5,right).Ourresultsalsoimplythatthistemporaryboostwouldfadeasrealincomereturnstotrendbyearlynextyear.

18September20244

Exhibit5:StickyHouseholdConsumptionBehaviourCouldbeTemporarilyBoostingtheSavingRate

Ontheleft,weshowtheimpulseresponseofthehouseholdsavingratetoanincreaseinincomegrowth,estimatedwithlocalprojectionsonanEA10panelbetween2000and2024.

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Second,thecompositionofhouseholdincomegainsinthe?rstquarteroftheyearlooksparticularlyconducivetoahighersavingrate.Theshareofnon-wageincomeincreased0.5ppandistypicallyassociatedwithalowerpropensitytoconsume(Exhibit6,left).Thetworeasonsforthisarethatnon-wageincomeistypicallyreceivedinlessliquidformsandtendstobeskewedtowardsricherhouseholds.Estimatesfromtheacademic

literaturewouldbeconsistentwithanadditional0.2ppboosttothesavingratefromthechangeinthecompositionofhouseholdincomeinQ1.Apermanentincreaseinthe

shareofnon-wageincomewouldcontributetoincreasingtheterminalsavingrate.

Third,theequilibriumlevelforthesavingrate—consistentwithfundamentaldrivers—couldbehigherthiscyclethanimpliedbyhistoricalpatterns.Forinstance,lookingatthecross-sectionofthe?velargestEuroareaeconomiessuggeststhatsavingratesweremoreresponsivetoincreasesindepositratessince2022(Exhibit6,right).Thehigher

sensitivityofhouseholdtodepositratescouldberelatedtothesalienceofpolicyrate

increasesoverrecentyears,whichbroughtdepositinstrumentsbackintothemainstream.Weestimatethatthischannelcouldcurrentlybepushinguptheequilibriumratebyupto0.6pp.

18September20245

Exhibit6:TheCompositionofIncomeandaHigherSensitivitytoDepositRatesareLikelyPushingtheEquilibriumSavingRateHigher

Ontheright,theslopeofthe?ttedlinesisequivalenttothepanelOLScoef?cientofthesavingrateondepositratesaftercontrollingforcovariates.

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,HaverAnalytics

Fourth,weseereasonsforaresetinconsumptionhabitstoleavethesavingratehigherthanbeforetheCovidpandemic.Ourglobalteamhas

shown

thattheshortfallin

consumptioncomparedto2019ismostpronouncedforcategorieswhichunderwentlargedeclineduringthepandemic(Exhibit7,left).Intuitively,thereassessmentof

preferencesorspendinghabitspromptedbytheCovidpandemicmaybeweighingonspendingandboostingsavings.Thischannelwouldalsocontributetoincreasingtheterminalsavingrate.

Exhibit7:WeNowLookforaSlowerandShallowerSavingRateDecline

Ontheleft,bubblesizesareproportionaltocategoryweightsintheconsumptionbasket.

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,HaverAnalytics,ECB

Takentogether,wenowexpectthesavingratetomoregraduallydeclinetoahigher

terminallevel.Wearepencillingina0.3ppnormalisationinthesecondhalfofthisyeartore?ectfurtherimprovementinfundamentalsandsomeadjustmentinconsumptionbehaviour.WeassumeanearliernormalisationthaninECBstaffprojectionsbutamore

18September20246

gradualdeclineinto2025(Exhibit7,right)

ConsumptiontoRecoverMoreGradually

Ourrevisedforecastsforincomegrowthandthesavingrateimplyasequentialpick-upinconsumptioninthesecondhalfoftheyearbeforereturningtotrendinearly2025

(Exhibit8,left).OurforecastisabovetheECBstaffprojectionsoverthenextfew

quarters,asweexpectslightlyhigherincomegrowthandanearlierdeclineinthesavingrate(Exhibit8,right).

Exhibit8:WeForecastHouseholdConsumptiontoRunModeratelyAboveTrendin2024H2

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,HaverAnalytics,ECB

Theoutlookforhouseholdconsumptionhasshiftedfromarapidrecoveryinearly2024—whichdidnotmaterialise—toamoregradualimprovementinlate2024.OurforecastforGDPgrowthisbelowtrendinthesecondhalfof2024,givensigni?cantweaknessinothercomponents.

AlexandreStott

KatyaVashkinskaya

18September20247

GoldmanSachsEuropeanEconomicsAnalyst

DisclosureAppendix

RegAC

We,SvenJariStehn,FilippoTaddei,AlexandreStott,JamesMoberlyandKatyaVashkinskaya,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyre?ectourpersonalviews,whichhavenotbeenin?uencedbyconsiderationsofthe?rm’sbusinessorclientrelationships.

Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs’GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.

Disclosures

Regulatorydisclosures

DisclosuresrequiredbyUnitedStateslawsandregulations

Seecompany-speci?cregulatorydisclosuresaboveforanyofthefollowingdisclosuresrequiredastocompaniesreferredtointhisreport:managerorco-managerinapendingtransaction;1%orotherownership;compensationforcertainservices;typesofclientrelationships;managed/co-managedpublicofferingsinpriorperiods;directorships;forequitysecurities,marketmakingand/orspecialistrole.GoldmanSachstradesormaytradeasa

principalindebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)ofissuersdiscussedinthisreport.

Thefollowingareadditionalrequireddisclosures:Ownershipandmaterialcon?ictsofinterest:GoldmanSachspolicyprohibitsitsanalysts,professionalsreportingtoanalystsandmembersoftheirhouseholdsfromowningsecuritiesofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.

Analystcompensation:Analystsarepaidinpartbasedonthepro?tabilityofGoldmanSachs,whichincludesinvestmentbankingrevenues.Analyst

asof?cerordirector:GoldmanSachspolicygenerallyprohibitsitsanalysts,personsreportingtoanalystsormembersoftheirhouseholdsfromservingasanof?cer,directororadvisorofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.Non-U.S.Analysts:Non-U.S.analystsmaynotbe

associatedpersonsofGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCandthereforemaynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241orFINRARule2242restrictionsoncommunicationswithsubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbytheanalysts.

AdditionaldisclosuresrequiredunderthelawsandregulationsofjurisdictionsotherthantheUnitedStates

Thefollowingdisclosuresarethoserequiredbythejurisdictionindicated,excepttotheextentalreadymadeabovepursuanttoUnitedStateslawsandregulations.Australia:GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtdanditsaf?liatesarenotauthoriseddeposit-takinginstitutions(asthattermisde?nedinthe

BankingAct1959(Cth))inAustraliaanddonotprovidebankingservices,norcarryonabankingbusiness,inAustralia.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor“wholesaleclients”withinthemeaningoftheAustralianCorporationsAct,unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.In

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securitiesofcoveredcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedonrequestfromGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.India:FurtherinformationonthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedfromGoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLimited,ResearchAnalyst-SEBIRegistrationNumberINH000001493,951-A,RationalHouse,AppasahebMaratheMarg,Prabhadevi,Mumbai400025,India,CorporateIdentityNumberU74140MH2006FTC160634,Phone+912266169000,Fax+912266169001.GoldmanSachsmaybene?ciallyown1%ormoreofthesecurities(assuchtermisde?nedinclause2(h)theIndianSecuritiesContracts(Regulation)Act,1956)ofthesubjectcompanyorcompanies

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whichstatestheEuropeanPolicyforManagingCon?ictsof

InterestinConnectionwithInvestmentResearch.

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