柯炳生獲獎課件

FoodSecurityIssuesinChina:ChallengesandStrategiesDr.KeBingshengChinaAgriculturalUniversityOutlinePastdevelopmentandcurrentsituationProductiongrowth1978-2023TradeMajorchallengesRisingdemandSlow-downofproductiongrowthPolicypracticeandfutureperspectives

30yearsreformandcurrentpolicyOptionsforimprovementsPastdevelopmentandcurrentsituationDeclinedagriculturalshares

19802023GDP%3011Population%8153/68Employment%6941Export%203Import%154Foodexpenditure,urban%5737Foodexpenditure,rural%6241Development1978-2023Grainproductiongrowth:73%,or1.8%onaverageperyearMeatproduction:increasedbyover7timesFisheryproduction:increasedbyover8timesFarmers’income:7%annuallyinrealterm.GrainproductioninChina

1978-2023,inmilliontonsWheatproductioninChina,

inmilliontonsPaddyriceproductioninChina

inmilliontonsCornproductioninChina

inmilliontonsMeatandmilkproductioninChina

inmilliontonsAgriculturalandFoodTrade

in2023NetimporterHighdependence:importofsoybean:42.55milliontons,implying15%oftotalcroppingareaswouldbeneededifproduceddomesticallyin2023.Of75%ofsoybeandemandisimported.Importofedibleoils:10.29milliontonsImportinthefirsteightmonthsin2023Deficitofagri-andfoodtrade：US$15.2billionSoybeanimport:35.53milliontons.Cotton:2.17milliontonsEdibleoils:5.77milliontonsAgriculturalandfoodtradeinChina

includingfishery,inbillionUS$AgriculturalandfoodimportinChina

%AgriculturalandfoodexportinChina

%CerealsTradeinChina

inmilliontonsSoybeanTradeinChina

inmilliontonsCottonTradeinChina

inmilliontonsEdibleoiltradeinChina

inmilliontonsMajorchallengesChallengesforbalancingdemandandsupply(1)Continueddemand:90milliontonsfor2023-2023,or6milliontonsperyear:populationgrowth:47millionturbanization(increasedurbanshareinpopulation):10milliontincomeimprovement:10milliontgrowthofothersectors(withoutbiofuel):23milliontChallengesforbalancingdemandandsupply(2)ConstraintsinproductionReductionofarablelandduetourbanizationDegradationoflandqualityShortageofirrigationwaterRisingproductioncostsforlaborandmaterialinputs:fallingcroppingindexSlow-downinyieldimprovementsGrainareasinChina

100millionMu

Croppingareasbycrop，億畝GrainyieldinChina,kg/muGrainyieldinChina,kg/muGrainyieldincreases,%GrainsPaddyCornWheat1988-1998241828271998-2023828211988-202334203954GrainYieldsbyProvince,2023WorldExport,100milliontonsPolicypracticeandfutureperspectives

30YearsReform

1978-2023:introductionofmarketsystemCollectiveproductionunitsreplacedbyindividualfarmersGovernmentpurchasinganddistributionreplacedbymarketmechanismFreemigrationoflaborforcesbetweenrural-urban2023-present:supportpolicyaddressingmarketfailuresAbolishmentofagriculturaltax,endingahistoryof2600yearsDirectsubsidytofarmers:qualityseed,grainfarmers,inputsubsidy…Supportpriceforpaddyrice,wheat,cornIncreasedinputsinagriculturalservice,ruralinfrastructure,education,healthcareandsocialsecurity…PoliciestopromoteproductionincentiveGrainareasubsidySubsidytomitigateeffectsfrompricehikeoffarminputsGrainseedsubsidySubsidyforpurchaseoffarmmachinesSubsidytosowsBudgetoutlayforsupportingagricultureanditssharePolicytopromoteproductivityStrictercontrolontakingfarmlandfornon-farmpurposesIncreasedpublicfundingin:irrigationandotherinfrastructureextensionresearchOtherpublicservice:information,foodsafety,diesescontrol…PolicytoreducedemandEstablishmentofnewbiofuelplantsusinggrainsasfeedstockisinfactprohibitedsince2023.TradepolicyInpractice:MuchmorefreerthanWTOcommitments:Soybeanimporttax:1%from3%(WTO)Cotton:ca.5%from40%(WTO)SimilarcanhappentootherkeyproductswheninshortageFutureperspectivesImportofland-intensivecommodities(lowyieldproducts:oilseeds,cotton,wheat)willfurtherexpand;TherewillbenofoodcrisisforChinafortheshortandmid-term.Longtermfoodsecuritydependsonprotectiona