高盛-中國2025年展望：逆風(fēng)前行 （摘要）-20241115

SachsResearch中國2025年展望中國2025年展望■2024年，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨很多不利因素，■在我們的2025年基線情景中，我們假設(shè)預(yù)計(jì)中國決策層將在2025年大幅降息(40個(gè)基點(diǎn))并明顯提高廣義財(cái)政赤字率場(chǎng)。我們預(yù)計(jì)明年CPI和PPI通脹分別為0.8%和0%。通脹低迷的原因有二：第高盛(亞洲)有限責(zé)任公司高盛(亞洲)有限責(zé)任公司高盛(亞洲)有限責(zé)任公司高盛(亞洲)有限責(zé)任公司高盛(亞洲)有限責(zé)任公司高盛(亞洲)有限責(zé)任公司關(guān)稅的加征幅度遠(yuǎn)超20%(即：給增長帶來下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn))、中國出口韌性遠(yuǎn)強(qiáng)于我們預(yù)測(cè)(給增長帶來上行風(fēng)險(xiǎn))、以及中國決策層格外注重匯率穩(wěn)定(給我們的我們預(yù)計(jì)2025-2035年中國實(shí)際GDP增速均值為3.5%,而2000-2019年為9.0%。/research/hedge.h本報(bào)告來源于“慧博投研”,請(qǐng)勿外傳!Put”lastNovember,ChinesepolicymaketheChineseeconomyth本報(bào)告來源于“慧博投研”,請(qǐng)勿外傳!0.1PotentialImpactof20%USTaiffonChin21TherecentpolicyturntheeconomyandpursueatecWesiftedthroughPresidentXiJinping'sspeechesfrequencyinthesespeeches.“Technology(科技)”hasincreasedfromthe78thfrequentlymentionedwordin2019tothe30in2024,and“high-quality(高質(zhì)量)”hasbatteryandsolar/wineconomicgrowth.WeexpectrealGDinflationgraduallynorma002019550資料來源：政府網(wǎng)站，高盛全球投資研究部資料來源：國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局，高盛全球投資研究部Wherearewedifferent?Althoughourwithconsensusexpectations,our%%baselineforecastscChinabythefull60pphethrChina’shouseholdconsumptionslcomparedto47%inQ2and59%pre-Covidin2019(圖表6).RetailTheweaknessindomesticdema2024年11月15日本報(bào)告來源于“慧博投研”,請(qǐng)勿外傳!theflipside,thepropertysectorisnotoutofthewoodsyetLocalgovernmentfundingconditionsfacedincreasedchalspending.Governmentconsumption-whichaccountsexpecttotalconsumptionincludingb2024,slightlybelowthepre-Covidtrend(圖表7).Wecontinuetoexpectaverygradual8Q1|Q2|Q3Q4Q1|02資料來源：國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局資料來源：國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局，高盛全球投資研究部employmentsub-indexes(圖表8).Theempofficialdatashowstablewagegrowth,ourwagetracker,whichincorporatesalternative22019202020212022資料來源：國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局，高盛全球投資研究部Thewagedataunderursurveystartedin2014Q2,soweusethewagegrowthfrom2003Q2to2013Q4.部andcompletionsalmosthalvedasofthelatestdata(圖表10).Bycomparison,totalflopreviousyears.Secondaryho“stemthepropertymarketfromfrestrictionsonnewprojects,pledgingtolausignificantlyinOctobervs.SGivenmanystructuralourviewthatthereappearappearsinevitable,instill-depressedfundingconditionsforpropertydevelopers.We圖表12:WeexpectFAIgrowthtorisemodestly圖表13:FAIgrowthhasbeenmostlydrivenbySOE2024年11月15日8本報(bào)告來源于“慧博投研”,請(qǐng)勿外傳!competitivenessandpotentdeclinemodestlyto5.1%ofGDPspending.OurAsiaTransportresearchteamforecastsChina'sinter2024to0.8%ofGDPin2025whichshouldweighontheCNY(圖表17).本報(bào)告來源于“慧博投研”,請(qǐng)勿外傳!piceandvolumecontibutiontpiceandvolumecontibutiont006543210China'scurrentaccount(share532052024年11月15日10本報(bào)告來源于“慧博投研”,請(qǐng)勿外傳!obstacleshinderingtAdditionaldemand-sideandheadlineCPlinflationtorisemoderatelyto0.8%from0.4%expectedthisyear(圖表Chinayear-over-yearCPlChinayear-over-yearCPlrecapitalization,consumption,andthepropertysecto本報(bào)告來源于“慧博投研”,請(qǐng)勿外傳!中國2025年展望agrowthdrivernextyearfrombeingadragthisyear(圖表22).62.51.02.30.00.31.70.00.21.00.72024年11月15日13本報(bào)告來源于“慧博投研”,請(qǐng)勿外傳!guidanceonfurtherpolicyeasingindicatedpolicymakerscutsinQ2andQ42026(圖表23).Thisshouldhel“credit-intensive”)andthePBOC'srTightenedregulationon“idlemoneycirculation”,suchascoimpulsein2025vs.2024(圖表24).3255webelieveagrowthtargetof2025ifpolicymakerswouldlikebalanced,despiteheighteneduncertairesilient-than-expectedChineseexports,whhaveimplicationsforgrowthandmarkets(圖表26).圖表25:China’s圖表26:UpcomingkeymacrocatalystsforChinamarketsUSPresident-electtoanEarlytomid-Dec2024PolitbuEnd-Dec2024NPCstandingco20Jan2025Jan-Feb20252025proviEarly-to-midMar202LateApr2025PolitburomeetingoneconomEnd-Jul2025PolitburomeetingonecoComparingtheongoingstimongoingstimuluspackagewillbelargerthadifferenceistheincreasedfocusonbaselinescenariofor2025consumerspendinghigherUStariffsnextyear,thiswouldacthe2025growthpatternthatweexpect.Wefindthatwholesbenefitmorefrom圖表27:WeexpectgoodsconsumptionandexportstoplaylargerrolesinChina's 0.81.61.6-0.60.00.10.90.835%Note:greenrepresentshighersharesrelativetotypicalcycleandr本報(bào)告來源于“慧博投研”,請(qǐng)勿外傳!growthcontinuedtorecoveroneasingfinancial本報(bào)告來源于“慧博投研”,請(qǐng)勿外傳!圖表28:圖表28:Goodsconsumptiondeclinedyear-to-datewhile%of2018leveksContibutiontorealGDPgrowth20-----SpendingoutsideHongKong0809101112131415161718192021222324