翻譯二級筆譯實務分類模擬題10

翻譯二級筆譯實務分類模擬題10English-ChineseTranslation1.

LONDON—Webster'sDictionarydefinesplagueas"anythingt（江南博哥）hatafflictsortroubles;calamity;scourge."Furtherdefinitionsinclude"anycontagiousepidemicdiseasethatisdeadly;esp.,bubonicplague"and,fromtheBible,"anyofvariouscalamitiessentdownasdivinepunishment."Theverbformmeans"tovex;harass;trouble;torment."

InAlbertCamus'novel,ThePlague,writtensoonaftertheNazioccupationofFrance,thefirstsignoftheepidemicisratsdyinginnumbers:"Theycameupfrombasementsandcubby-holes,cellarsanddrains,inlongswayinglines;theystaggeredinthelight,collapsedanddied,rightnexttopeople.Atnight,incorridorsandside-streets,onecouldclearlyhearthetinysqueaksastheyexpired.Inthemorning,ontheoutskirtsoftown,youwouldfindthemstretchedoutinthegutterwithalittlefloretofbloodontheirpointedmuzzles,someblownupandrotting,otherstiff,withtheirwhiskersstillstandingup."

Theratsaremessengers,but—humannaturebeingwhatitis—theirmessageisnotimmediatelyheeded.Lifemustgoon.Thereareerrandstorun,moneytobemade.ThenovelissetinOran,anAlgeriancoastaltownofcommerceandlassitude,wheretheheatrisessteadilytothepointthattheseachangescolor,deepblueturningtoa"sheenofsilveroriron,makingitpainfultolookat."Evenwhenpeoplestarttodie—theirlymphnodesswollen,blackishpatchesspreadingontheirskin,vomitingbile,gaspingforbreath—theauthorities'responseishesitant.Theword"plague"isalmostunsayable.Inexasperation,thedoctor-protagonisttellsahastilyconvenedhealthcommission:"Idon'tmindtheformofwords.Let'sjustsaythatweshouldnotactasthoughhalfthetownwerenotthreatenedwithdeath,becausethenitwouldbe."

Thesequenceofemotionsfeelsfamiliar.Denialisfollowedbyfaintanxiety,whichisfollowedbyconcern,whichisfollowedbyfear,whichisfollowedbypanic.Thephobiaisstokedbythesuddenrealizationthatthereareuncontrollabledarkforces,lurkinginthedrainsandthesewers,justbeneathlife'splacidsurface.Thediseaseisaleveler,suddenlyeveryoneisvulnerable,andthemoralstrengthofeachindividualistested.Theplagueisoneveryone'sminds,whenit'snotintheirbodies.Questionsmultiply:Whatisthechainoftransmission?Howtoisolatethevictims?

Plagueandepidemicsareathingofthepast,ofcoursetheyare.Physicalcontacthasbeencuttoaminimumindevelopedsocieties.Devicesandtheirdigitalmessagesdirectourlives.Itisnotnecessarytolookintosomeone'seyesletalonetouchtheirskininordertobecome,somehow,intimate.Foodishermeticallysealed.Blood,secretions,saliva,pus,bodilyfluids—thesearethingswithwhichhospitalsdeal,notmattersofdailyconcern.

AviruscontractedinWestAfrica,perhapsbyamanhuntingfruitbatsinatropicalforesttofeedhisfamily,andcuttingthebatopen,cannotaffectanurseinDallas,Texas,whohasbeenwearingprotectiveclothingasshetendedapatientwhodied.Exceptthatitdoes."Pestilenceisinfactverycommon,"Camusobserves,"butwefindithardtobelieveinapestilencewhenitdescendsuponus."

Thescarythingisthatthebatthatcarriesthevirusisnotsick.Itissimplycapableoftransmittingthevirusintherightcircumstances.Inotherwords,thevirusisalwayslurkingevenifinvisible.Itiseasilyignoreduntilitistoolate.

Pestilence,ofcourse,isametaphoraswellasaphysicalfact.Itisnotjustbloodoozingfromgumsandeyes,diarrheaandvomiting.AplaguehaddescendedonEuropeasCamuswrote.ThecalamityandslaughterwerespreadingthroughtheNorthAfricawherehehadpassedhischildhood.ThisvirushoppingtodayfromAfricatoEuropetotheUnitedStateshascomeinatimeofbeheadingsandunease.Peopleputthephenomenatogetherasdenialturnstoanxietyandpanic.Theysensethestirringofuncontrollableforces.Theywanttobewrongbuttheyarenotsuretheyare.

Attheendofthenovel,thedoctorcontemplatesarelievedthrongthathassurvived:"Heknewthatthishappycrowdwasunawareofsomethingthatonecanreadinbooks,whichisthattheplaguebacillusneverdiesorvanishesentirely,thatitcanremaindormantfordozensofyearsinfurnitureorclothing,thatitwaitspatientlyinbedrooms,cellars,trunks,handkerchiefsandoldpapers,andthatperhapsthedaywillcomewhen,fortheinstructionormisfortuneofmankind,theplaguewillrouseitsratsandsendthemtodieinsomewell-contentedcity."正確答案：倫敦——“瘟疫”(plague)在《韋氏詞典》中的解釋是“帶來痛苦或者煩惱的事物；災難；禍患”，更為具體的解釋包括“傳染性和致命性流行病，尤指鼠疫”以及《圣經》中提到的“作為天譴的各種災難”。該詞的動詞形式意為“使惱火；煩擾；困擾；使痛苦”。

納粹占領法國不久后，阿爾貝·加繆(AlbertCamus)寫下了小說《鼠疫》，其中描寫的鼠疫征兆就是老鼠的大批死亡：“它們從隱匿的屋角里、地下室、地窖、陰溝等處接連爬出來，排成了歪七扭八的長隊，在光亮處踉踉蹌蹌地爬動，最后栽倒在地，死在人們的面前。到了夜里，在過道中或巷子里都可以清晰地聽到它們垂死掙扎時發(fā)出的微弱慘叫聲。到了清晨，市郊的居民發(fā)現下水道里到處是四腳朝天的死老鼠，它們的尖嘴上都帶有一小塊血跡。有些已腫脹腐爛，有些四肢僵直，須毛都還直豎著?！?/p>

老鼠大批死亡傳遞了某種信號，可惜人們起初并未在意，這皆因人類本性使然：生活照常繼續(xù)，人們還要忙著做事，急著賺錢。小說背景選在了阿爾及利亞一個死氣沉沉的沿海商貿城市奧蘭：當地的天氣逐漸變得炎熱起來，大海也從深藍色變成了刺眼的銀白或鐵灰色，這時有人開始淋巴結腫大，皮膚上黑色的斑點不斷擴散，口吐膽汁，呼吸困難，最終不治身亡，但是當局并未采取果斷的應對措施?！笆笠摺碑敃r幾乎是個禁忌語。當地為此匆忙組建了一個衛(wèi)生委員會，作為小說主人公的一名醫(yī)生在開會時不無惱怒地說：“我不在意怎么措辭，但是必須傳達的信息是，我們采取措施時不能認為城市一半的人口沒有生命危險，因為(如果行動不力)到時真的會有一半的人死于這場疫情。”

人們對疫情的情緒變化過程我們并不陌生：先是否認，然后是一絲焦慮、接著是擔憂、恐懼，最后是恐慌，因為人們突然意識到，就在平靜的生活表面之下，在陰溝與下水道中潛伏著無法控制的黑暗力量。瘟疫面前人人平等，突然之間大家都變得那么脆弱，每個人的道德力都受到了考驗。沒有感染瘟疫的人們也都提心吊膽，惶惶不可終日。越來越多的人開始發(fā)問：瘟疫是怎么傳播開來的?該怎么隔離那些感染瘟疫的人?

時至今日，瘟疫已成歷史，這毋庸置疑。在發(fā)達國家，肢體接觸的概率已經降至最低，各種電子設備及其傳遞的數字訊息主導著我們的生活，想與人拉近距離時無需眼神交流，更不用肌膚之親。食物密封包裝，血液、分泌物、唾液、膿汁、體液等都由醫(yī)院處理，人們平時無需為此操心。

正在西非蔓延的(埃博拉)病毒可能最初是由一名在熱帶雨林中靠獵捕果蝠養(yǎng)家糊口的男子切殺果蝠時感染的。得克薩斯州達拉斯市的一位埃博拉病毒感染者最終不治身亡，照料他的一名護士也被傳染，這位護士工作時始終穿著防護服，照理說不應受到傳染。加繆寫道：“瘟疫對人們來說已是司空見慣，然而一旦落到自己頭上，還是覺得難以置信?！?/p>

可怕的是攜帶病毒的蝙蝠并不會患病，但能在適當的條件下傳播病毒。換句話說，即便肉眼看不見，這種病毒也將永遠處于潛伏狀態(tài)，人類很容易忽略它的存在，而到病毒爆發(fā)時，為時已晚。

當然，“瘟疫”既是一種隱喻，也是一種客觀事實。它不僅僅是讓人口眼出血、腹瀉和嘔吐。加繆創(chuàng)作《瘟疫》這部小說的時候，歐洲正經歷一場瘟疫。在他童年時期曾經生活過的北非，那場肆虐一時的瘟疫曾經奪去很多人的生命。如今，(恐怖分子的)斬首惡行和緊張氣氛困擾著人們，此時埃博拉病毒從非洲蔓延至歐洲和美國，人們的情緒從否認轉變?yōu)榻箲]和恐慌，他們開始琢磨這些現象。他們感知到不可控力量在蠢蠢欲動，希望這是自己的錯覺，但又害怕?lián)牡氖虑樽罱K變成現實。

在小說結尾，那位醫(yī)生看著為躲過浩劫而松了口氣的人群陷入了沉思：“他知道這些暗自慶幸的人們并沒有意識到書上記載的有關瘟疫的常識，那就是：鼠疫桿菌永遠不死不滅，它能在家具和衣服中潛伏幾十年，能在臥室、地窖、皮箱、手帕和廢紙堆中耐心等候時機，也許有朝一日，為了教導或者懲罰人類，瘟神會再度發(fā)動它的鼠群，去找個人們安居樂業(yè)的城市制造一場鼠疫?！?/p>

2.

PARIS-WhenFrancewonitssecondNobelPrizeinlessthanaweekonMonday,thistimeforeconomics,PrimeMinisterManuelVallsquicklytooktoTwitter,insistingwithnoshortageofpridethattheaccomplishmentwasaloudrebukeforthosewhosaythatFranceisanationindecline.

"AfterPatrickModiano,anotherFrenchmaninthefirmament:CongratulationstoJeanTirole!"Mr.Vallswrote."Whatawaytothumbone'snoseatFrenchbashing!ProudofFrance."

SomeinthecountrywerealreadygiddyafterMr.Modiano,abelovedauthor,whoseconciseandmoodynovelsareoftensetinFranceduringtheNazioccupation,wontheNobelPrizeforliteraturelastweek.TheawardhelpedtoraisetheglobalstatureofMr.Modiano,whosethreebookspublishedintheUnitedStates—twonovelsandachildren'sbook—beforetheNobelhadcollectivelysoldfewerthan8,000copies.

Joininginthechorus,LeMondesuggestedinaneditorialthatatatimeoframpantFrench-bashing,Mr.Modiano'sachievementwassomethingofavindicationforacountrywhereNobelPrizesinliteratureflowmoreliberallythanoil.Mr.Modianowasthe15thFrenchwriter,includingSartreandCamus,towintheaward.

YetthisbeingFrance,acountrywheredissatisfactioncanbewornlikeanaccessory,someintellectuals,economistsandcriticsgreetedtheawardswithlittlemorethanashrugatatimewhentheeconomyhasbeenfaltering,ParishaslostinfluencetoBerlinandBrussels,thefar-rightNationalFronthasbeensurging,andFrancoisHollandehasbecomeoneofthemostunpopularFrenchpresidentsinrecenthistory.OtherssniffedhaughtilythatwhileFrancewasgreatatculture,itremainedeconomicallyandpoliticallyprostrate.

EvenMr.Modianomayhaveunintentionallycapturedthenationalmoodwhen,informedofhisprizebyhiseditor,hesaidhefoundit"strange"andwantedtoknowwhytheNobelcommitteehadselectedhim.

EvenMr.Modianomayhaveunintentionallycapturedthenationalmoodwhen,informedofhisprizebyhiseditor,hesaidhefoundit"strange"andwantedtoknowwhytheNobelcommitteehadselectedhim.

AlainFinkielkraut,aprofessorofphilosophyattheelitePolytechnique,whorecentlypublishedabookcriticizingwhathecharacterizedasFrance'sdescentintoconformityandmulticulturalism,saidthatratherthanshowingthatFrancewasontheascent,thefetishizingoftheNobelPrizesbytheFrenchpoliticaleliterevealedthecountry'sdesperation.

"IfindtheideathattheNobelsarebeingusedasaripostetoFrench-bashingidiotic,"hesaid."Oureducationsystemistotallybroken,andtheNobelPrizedoesn'tchangeanything.IhavealotofaffectionforMr.Modiano,butIthinkPhilipRothdeserveditmuchmore.TotalkthatallinFranceisgoingwellandthatthepessimismisgoneisabsurd.Franceisdoingextremelybadly.Thereisaneconomiccrisis.Thereisacrisisofintegration.Iamnotgoingtobeconsoledbythesemedalsmadeofchocolate."

RobertFrank,ahistoryprofessoremeritusattheUniversityofParis1—Sorbonne,andtheauthorofTheFearofDecline,FranceFrom1914to2014,echoedthattheself-aggrandizementthathadgreetedtheprizesamongtheFrenchestablishmentreflectedacountrylackinginself-confidence.Inearliercenturies,henoted,theprizehadbeengreetedassomethingobvious.

WhenFrenchwritersorintellectualswonNobelsinthemid-20thcentury,"therewasnojoltatthattime,becauseFrancestillsawitselfasimportant,sotherewasn'tmuchtoaddtothat,"hesaid."Today,itmayhelpsomepeopletoshowthatFrancestillcountsincertainplacesintheworld.Thisdoesn'tfixthecrisisofunemployment,however,thatissappingthissociety."

Inacademiceconomiccircles,Mr.Tirole'swinningthe2014Nobelineconomicscienceforhisworkonthebestwaytoregulatelarge,powerfulfirms,wasgreetedasafittingtributetoamanwhoseworkhadexertedprofoundinfluence.ItaddedtoanalreadyprominentyearforFrencheconomists,asseenfromThomasPiketty'sbook,CapitalintheTwenty-FirstCentury,whichbecameanimmediatebest-sellerwhentranslatedintoEnglishsixmonthsago.

Mr.Tirole'sworkgainedparticularattentionafterthe2008financialcrisis,whichrevealedproblemsintheregulationoffinancialfirmsintheUnitedStatesandEurope.

Butsomenotedtheparadoxoftheawardgoingtoaneconomistfromanationwheretheeconomywaslessthanshimmering,andwheremanybusinessesandcriticsbemoanacultureofexcessiveredtape.

OtherslikeSeanSafford,anassociateprofessorofeconomicsociologyatInstitutPolitiquesdeParis,theeliteinstituteforpoliticalstudiesknownasSciencesPo,saidMr.Tirole,aprofessorofeconomicsattheUniversityofToulouseinFrance,wasnotableforcomingatatimeofeconomicmalaiseandbraindrain,whensomanyofthecountry'sbrightestareemigratingelsewhereinEuropeortotheUnitedStates."TheaverageFrenchperson,whoisstrugglingtopaythebills,isnotgoingtorejoice,"hesaid.

AtatimewhenFranceistryingtooverhaulitssocialmodelamidwitheringresistancetochange,otherssaidtheawardhadlaidbarethecountry'sabidingstratificationbetweenasmall,hyper-educatedeliteandtherestofthecountry.

PeterGumbel,aBritishjournalistlivinginFrancewhomostrecentlywroteabookonFrenchelitism,saidthatwhiletheprizewouldprovidesomesenseofnationalvalidation,thetwomendidnotreflectthecountryasawhole.

"UndoubtedlytheFrenchecosystemproducesincrediblysmartpeopleattheverytopend,whoarecapableofwinningprizes,andwhofallintoagrandtradition,andthatiswhattheFrenchschoolsystemisgearedtoProduce,"hesaid.正確答案：巴黎——本周一，法國在不到一周的時間里獲得了本年度第二個諾貝爾獎：諾貝爾經濟學獎。獲獎消息傳來后，法國總理曼紐爾·瓦爾斯(ManuelValls)很快在推特網(Twitter)上滿懷自豪地發(fā)布消息稱，獲得諾獎對于那些唱衰法國的人而言不啻是一次響亮的回擊。

“繼帕特里克·莫迪亞諾(PatrickModiano)之后，又一個法國人登上巔峰：恭喜讓·梯若爾(JeanTirole)!”瓦爾斯寫道?！斑@是回擊法國衰落論的絕佳方式!為法國自豪?！?/p>

莫迪亞諾上周獲得諾貝爾文學獎，已經讓一些法國人沾沾自喜。莫迪亞諾是一名受人愛戴的作家，其小說文字簡練、氣氛感傷，往往以納粹占領時期的法國為故事背景。在獲獎之前，莫迪亞諾在美國出版的兩本小說和一本兒童讀物總銷量不足8000冊，此次獲獎有助于提高其在全球文學界的地位。

法國的《世界報》(LeMonde)也發(fā)表社論稱，在法國衰落論甚囂塵上之時，莫迪亞諾獲獎算是對法國的一種肯定。法國獲得諾貝爾文學獎“比石油流動還容易”。莫迪亞諾是第15位獲得過諾貝爾文學獎的法國作家，薩特和加繆也都赫然在列。

如今法國經濟舉步維艱，影響力不如德國和比利時，極右翼政黨國民陣線(NationalFront)的勢力急劇擴張，總統(tǒng)弗朗索瓦·奧朗德淪為法國近年來最不受歡迎的總統(tǒng)之一。同時，法國人發(fā)泄不滿情緒就像穿戴配飾一樣平常。因此，一些知識分子、經濟學家和評論人士對法國獲得諾貝爾獎也只是聳聳肩，覺得無所謂。其他他人則以傲慢的口吻對獲獎嗤之以鼻，稱法國是文化上的巨人，經濟和政治上的矮子。

就連莫迪亞諾本人也在無意中受到這種國民情緒的感染。當編輯告知他獲獎一事時，他說自己都覺得“奇怪”，很納悶為什么諾貝爾委員會選中了他。

阿蘭·芬基爾克羅(AlainFinkielkraut)是一名哲學教授，任教于菁英匯集的巴黎綜合理工學院(Polytechnique)。在最近出版的一本書中，他稱法國陷入了因循守舊和多元文化主義，對此大加批評。芬基爾克羅說，法國政治上層對諾貝爾獎盲目迷戀，顯示的并不是法國的欣欣向榮，而是法國孤注一擲的絕望處境。

“我覺得拿獲得諾獎一事還擊法國衰落論實乃愚蠢之舉，”他說。“我們的教育體系徹底崩潰，獲獎也無濟于事。我很喜歡莫迪亞諾，但我認為菲利普·羅斯(PhilipRoth)更有資格獲獎。那種聲稱法國一切運行良好、悲觀情緒已經消失的說法很是荒謬。法國現在的處境糟糕透頂，既有經濟危機，也有融合危機。這些無關痛癢的‘巧克力’獎牌不會給我什么慰藉?！?/p>

羅伯特·弗蘭克(RobertFrank)是巴黎第一大學(UniversityofParis1—Sorbonne)的歷史學榮休教授，著有《對衰落的恐懼：1914年到2014年的法國》(TheFearofDecline，FranceFrom1914to2014)一書。他也認為，法國領導人對獲獎一事大肆夸耀，這恰恰是國家缺乏自信的表現。他指出，在之前的幾個世紀，人們都把法國獲獎視為理所當然的事情。

在20世紀中期，法國作家或知識分子榮獲諾貝爾獎“不會引起轟動，因為那時法國人仍然認為自己是個大國，無需太多錦上添花，”他說?！皶r至今日，一些人可以拿獲獎說事，顯示法國在某些領域依然占有舉足輕重的地位。但是，獲獎本身并不能解決失業(yè)這一嚴重社會問題?！?/p>

梯若爾因其在“對實力雄厚的大型企業(yè)進行監(jiān)管的最佳方式”方面所做的研究榮獲2014年諾貝爾經濟學獎。經濟學界認為他的研究成果產生了深遠影響，這個獎項實至名歸。法國經濟學家今年早已搶盡風頭：托馬斯-皮克提(ThomasPiketty)的著作《二十一世紀資本論》(Capita/intheTwenty-FirstCentury)英文版半年前剛一問世就成了暢銷書。

2008年爆發(fā)的金融危機暴露了歐美金融監(jiān)管方面存在的問題，由此梯若爾的研究備受關注。

但有人指出，法國經濟形勢乏善可陳，官僚作風盛行在企業(yè)界和批評人士中也是飽受詬病，將經濟學獎頒給法國經濟學家有些說不過去。

著名政治研究機構巴黎政治學院(InstitutPolitiquesdeParis，也稱SciencesPo)的經濟社會學副教授肖恩-薩福德(SeanSafford)等人表示，值得注意的是，身為圖盧茲大學(UniversityofToulouse)經濟學教授的梯若爾此時獲獎恰逢法國面臨經濟困境、大批優(yōu)秀人才外流至其他歐洲國家或美國之時。他說，“正在為支付賬單發(fā)愁的法國大眾不會為他獲獎感到高興?！?/p>

現在法國抵制改革的力量正在減弱，法國政府試圖借機改革社會模式。有人說，對獲得諾獎反響不一也暴露了法國受教育程度較高的精英群體和其他人群之間長期存在的階層之別。

常駐法國的英國記者彼得-岡貝爾(PeterGumbel)最近寫了一本關于法國精英主義的書。他說，雖然獲得諾貝爾獎能在某種程度上讓人感覺國家得到了認可，但兩位獲獎人并不能代表國家的整體素質。

“毫無疑問，法國的(精英教育)體制是培養(yǎng)處于頂層、極為聰明的人才，這些人擁有獲獎的能力，又遵循偉大的傳統(tǒng)，這正是法國教育體制的目標所在，”他說。

3.

"WisdomoftheCrowd":TheMythsandRealities

Arethemanywiserthanthefew?PhilBallexploresthelatestevidenceonwhatcanmakegroupsofpeoplesmarter—butcanalsomakethemwildlywrong.

IsTheLordoftheRingsthegreatestworkofliteratureofthe20thCentury?IsTheShawshankRedemptionthebestmovieevermade?Bothhavebeenawardedthesetitlesbypublicvotes.Youdon'thavetobealiteraryorfilmsnobtowonderaboutthewisdomofso-called"wisdomofthecrowd",

Inanageroutinelydenouncedasselfishlyindividualistic,it'scuriousthatagreatdealoffaithstillseemstoliewiththejudgmentofthecrowd,especiallywhenitcanapparentlybefaroffthemark.Yetthereissometruthunderpinningtheideathatthemassescanmakemoreaccuratecollectivejudgmentsthanexpertindividuals.Sowhyisacrowdsometimesrightandsometimesdisastrouslywrong?

Thenotionthatagroup'sjudgementcanbesurprisinglygoodwasmostcompellinglyjustifiedinJamesSurowiecki's2005bookTheWisdomofCrowds,andisgenerallytracedbacktoanobservationbyCharlesDarwin'scousinFrancisGaltonin1907.Galtonpointedoutthattheaverageofalltheentriesina"guesstheweightoftheox"competitionatacountryfairwasamazinglyaccurate—beatingnotonlymostoftheindividualguessesbutalsothoseofallegedcattleexperts.Thisistheessenceofthewisdomofcrowds:theiraveragejudgmentconvergesontherightsolution.

Still,Surowieckialsopointedoutthatthecrowdisfarfrominfallible.Heexplainedthatonerequirementforagoodcrowdjudgementisthatpeople'sdecisionsareindependentofoneanother.Ifeveryoneletthemselvesbeinfluencedbyeachother'sguesses,there'smorechancethattheguesseswilldrifttowardsamisplacedbias.Thisunderminingeffectofsocialinfluencewasdemonstratedin2011byateamattheSwissFederalInstituteofTechnology(ETH)inZurich.

Theyaskedgroupsofparticipantstoestimatecertainquantitiesingeographyorcrime,aboutwhichnoneofthemcouldbeexpectedtohaveperfectknowledgebutallcouldhazardaguess—thelengthoftheSwiss-Italianborder,forexample,ortheannualnumberofmurdersinSwitzerland.Theparticipantswereofferedmodestfinancialrewardsforgoodgroupguesses,tomakesuretheytookthechallengeseriously.

Theresearchersfoundthat,astheamountofinformationparticipantsweregivenabouteachother'sguessesincreased,therangeoftheirguessesgotnarrower,andthecentreofthisrangecoulddriftfurtherfromthetruevalue.Inotherwords,thegroupsweretendingtowardsaconsensus,tothedetrimentofaccuracy.

Thisfindingchallengesacommonviewinmanagementandpoliticsthatitisbesttoseekconsensusingroupdecisionmaking.Whatyoucanendupwithinsteadisherdingtowardsarelativelyarbitraryposition.Justhowarbitrarydependsonwhatkindofpoolofopinionsyoustartoffwith,accordingtosubsequentworkbyoneoftheETHteam,FrankSchweitzer,andhiscolleagues.Theysaythatifthegroupgenerallyhasgoodinitialjudgement,socialinfluencecanrefineratherthandegradetheircollectivedecision.

Nooneshouldneedwarningaboutthedangersofherdingamongpoorlyinformeddecision-makers:copycatbehaviourhasbeenwidelyregardedasoneofthemajorcontributingfactorstothefinancialcrisis,andindeedtoallfinancialcrisesofthepast.

TheSwissteamcommentedthatthisdetrimentalherdingeffectislikelytobeevengreaterfordecidingproblemsforwhichnoobjectivelycorrectanswerexists,whichperhapsexplainshowdemocraticcountriesoccasionallyelectsuchastonishinglyineptleaders.

There'sanotherkeyfactorthatmakesthecrowdaccurate,ornot.Ithaslongbeenarguedthatthewisestcrowdsarethemostdiverse.That'saconclusionsupportedina2004studybyScottPageoftheUniversityofMichiganandLuHongofLoyolaUniversityinChicago.

Theyshowedthat,inatheoreticalmodelofgroupdecision-making,adiversegroupofproblem-solversmadeabettercollectiveguessthanthatproducedbythegroupofbest-performingsolvers.

Inotherwords,diversemindsdobetter,whentheirdecisionsareaveraged,thanexpertminds.

Infact,here'sasituationwherealittleknowledgecanbeadangerousthing.Astudyin2011byateamledbyJosephSimmonsoftheYaleSchoolofManagementinNewHaven,ConnecticutfoundthatgrouppredictionsaboutAmericanfootballresultswereskewedawayfromtherealoutcomesbytheover-confidenceofthefans'decisions,whichbiasedthemtowardsalleged"favourites"intheoutcomesofgames.

Allofthesefindingssuggestthatknowingwhoisinthecrowd,andhowdiversetheyare,isvitalbeforeyouattributetothemanyrealwisdom.

Couldtherealsobewaystomakeanexistingcrowdwiser?Lastmonth,AnticlineDavis-StoberoftheUniversityofMissouriandhisco-workerspresentedcalculationsataconferenceonCollectiveIntelligencethatprovideafewanswers.

Theyfirstrefinedthestatisticaldefinitionofwhatitmeansforacrowdtobewise—when,exactly,someaggregateofcrowdjudgmentscanbeconsideredbetterthanthoseofselectedindividuals.

Thisdefinitionallowedtheresearcherstodevelopguidelinesforimprovingthewisdomofagroup.Previousworkmightimplythatyoushouldaddrandomindividualswhosedecisionsareunrelatedtothoseofexistinggroupmembers.Thatwouldbegood,butit'sbetterstilltoaddindividualswhoaren'tsimplyindependentthinkersbutwhoseviewsare"negativelycorrelated"—asdifferentaspossible—fromtheexistingmembers.Inotherwords,diversitytrumpsindependence.

Ifyouwantaccuracy,then,addthosewhomightdisagreestronglywithyourgroup.Whatdoyoureckonofthechancesthatmanagersandpoliticianswillselectsuchcontrariancandidatestojointhem?Allthesame,armedwiththisinformationIintendtoapplyforapositionintheCabinetoftheBritishgovernment.They'dbewisenottorefuse.正確答案：“群體智慧”：假設與現實

人越多越有智慧嗎?菲爾·鮑爾(PhilBall)提供的最新證據揭示了導致群體更具智慧但又可能大錯特錯的因素。

《指環(huán)王》是20世紀最偉大的文學作品嗎?《肖申克的救贖》是有史以來最好的影片嗎?至少公眾投票給出了這樣的結論。即便你對文學作品或者電影作品不那么挑剔，也不禁會對所謂的“群體智慧”產生疑問。

我們生活的這個年代通常被視為是自私自利、個人主義盛行的年代，但是人們很大程度上依然相信群體判斷，特別是當這種群體判斷明顯偏頗之時，這令人匪夷所思。但是，認為群體判斷比專家的個人判斷更為準確也確有道理。那么，為什么群體判斷有時準確無誤有時卻又謬以千里呢?

有關群體判斷相當準確的看法在詹姆斯·索羅維基(JamesSurowiecki)2005年出版的《群體智慧》(TheWisdomofCrowds)一書中得到了最有力的詮釋，人們通常認為這種看法最早可以追溯到1907年查爾斯·達爾文(CharlesDarwin)的堂兄弗朗西斯·高爾頓(cousinFrancisGalton)所作的評論。高爾頓指出，在鄉(xiāng)村集市上舉行的“猜牛體重”比賽中人們所給答案的平均值相當準確，令人嘖嘖稱奇，相比較之下，個人答案大部分都錯了，就連那些所謂的養(yǎng)牛專家們也甘拜下風。這就是群體智慧的本質所在：群體判斷的平均值就是正確答案。

盡管如此，索羅維基同時指出，群體判斷與準確無誤相去甚遠。他解釋稱，準確的群體判斷有一個前提條件，那就是個人判斷彼此獨立，沒有相互影響。如果個體受到彼此判斷的影響，那么群體判斷出現偏差的可能性就增加了。為了證明人們之間相互影響產生的負面效應，2011年研究人員在蘇黎世的瑞士聯(lián)邦理工學院(SwissFederalInstituteofTechnology)進行了群體實驗。

研究人員要求參與實驗的人預估有關地理或犯罪率的具體數值，這些信息沒有哪個參與者能了如指掌，但是大家都可以做出猜測，比如：瑞士與意大利的邊境線有多長，瑞士每年的謀殺案有多少起等。如果群體猜測結果較為接近，參與者可以獲得一點現金獎勵，這樣可以保證大家認真參與這個實驗。

研究人員發(fā)現，當向實驗參與者提供越來越多有關其他人的猜測結果后，參與者的猜測范圍縮小了，猜測的中間值也越來越偏離真實數值。換言之，大家的答案逐漸趨向一致，但是離正確答案卻漸行漸遠。

在管理和政治領域存在一種共識，即最好的決策方法是集體協(xié)商一致，因此，上述研究結果與這種普遍共識存在沖突。瑞士聯(lián)邦理工學院的一組研究人員法蘭克·施威茨(FrankSchweitzer)和他的同事得出的結論是，集體協(xié)商一致的結果是大家達成一個相對武斷的結論，偏離的程度要看最開始得到的群體判斷，如果這個群體通常有高質量的初步判斷能力，那么成員間的相互影響會提高而不是降低群體決策的準確性。

與信息閉塞的決策者在一起的危險盡人皆知，毋庸諱言：人們普遍認為，仿冒行為是造成這次金融危機的主要原因，其實歷史上所有的金融危機也概莫能外。

瑞士聯(lián)邦理工學院的研究人員認為，這種從眾心理十分有害，對那些客觀上不存在正確答案的決策問題危害就更大了。這也許可以解釋為什么民主國家有時選出的領導人比較昏庸無能。

左右群體決策正確與否還有一大因素。長期以來人們一直認為最具智慧的群體意見最不統(tǒng)一。密歇根大學的斯科特·佩奇(ScottPage)和芝加哥洛約拉大學的盧紅(音譯，LuHong)2004年所做的研究驗證了這一結論。

研究顯示，在群體決策的理論模型中，解決問題能力不一的群體所做的集體決策要優(yōu)于個體解決問題能力較強的群體。

換言之，普通大眾所做的決策取中間值后要優(yōu)于專家決策。

事實上，還有一種情形就是有所了解也會出錯。2011年康涅狄格州紐黑文市耶魯大學管理學院的約瑟夫-西蒙斯(JosephSimmons)牽頭進行的一項研究顯示，人們對橄欖球比賽的預測結果與實際結果并不吻合，主要是因為球迷們過于相信自己看好的球隊獲勝，所以預測時難免帶有偏見。

所有這些研究結果都表明，在你做出判斷時，一定要清楚群體的人員構成和多元化程度，這至關重要。

有沒有讓現有群體做出更準確判斷的方法呢?上個月，密蘇里大學的安迪克萊恩·戴維斯-施托貝爾(AnticlineDavis-Stober)與同事在有關群體智慧的大會上展示了相關數據，從中可以找到一些答案。

他們首先對群體智慧的定義進行了統(tǒng)計學上的完善，即集體判斷何時可以被視作優(yōu)于個體判斷。

根據這一統(tǒng)計學定義，研究人員可以為改善群體智慧出謀劃策。這當然是好事，不過最好是能隨機將群體外一些個人的意見考慮在內。這些隨機個體不僅僅有獨立的思考，他們的觀點也與現有的群體成員大相徑庭，是“負相關”。換言之，多樣性比獨立性更重要。

如果想提高準確性，那就把那些可能與你所在群體的觀點迥異的人考慮在內進行統(tǒng)計。你認為企業(yè)高管和政客們允許與自己觀點相左的人加入他們陣營的概率有多大呢?不管怎么樣，了解了這一信息后，我想在英國政府內閣中謀求一個職位，如果他們明智的話就不要拒絕我。

4.

HowmuchmoneycanbemadefromtryingtoextractoilandgasfromthelayersofshalethatliebeneathBritain?

Answeringthatisprovingtobeasurprisinglydifficultscientificquestionbecauseknowingthebasicfactsaboutshaleisnotenough.

Thelayershavebeenwellmappedforyears.Infactuntilrecentlygeologiststendedtoregardshaleascommonplace,evendull—aviewthathasobviouslychanged.

Thekeytoolisaseismicsurvey:soundwavesaresentintothegroundandthereflectionsrevealthepatternsoftherocks.Thisdescribeswheretheshaleliesbutnotmuchmore.

Soweknow,forexample,thattheBowlandShale—whichstraddlesnorthernEngland—coversafarsmallerareathanthemassiveshaleformationsoftheUnitedStatesbutitisalsomuchthickerthantheyare.

Thatmaymeanthatitisapotentiallyricherresourceorthatitishardertoexploit.Britain'sgeologicalhistoryislongandtortured,sofoldsandfracturesdisrupttheshalelayers,creatingamorecomplexpicturethanacrosstheAtlantic.

Toassesswhatthelayersholdinvolvesanotherstep:wellshavetobedrilledintotherocktoallowcorestobeextractedsotheshalecanbeanalysedinmoredetail.

AsEdHoughoftheBritishGeologicalSurveytoldme:"Weknowtheareasunderthegroundwhichcontaingasandoil—whatwedon'tknowishowthatgasandoilmightbereleasedfromthedifferentunitsofrockandextracted."

"There'salotofvariabilityintheserocks—sotheircomposition,theirhistoryandthegeologicalconditionsallcomeintoplayandareallvariable."

Thatmeansthatneighbouringfrackingoperationsmightcomeupwithverydifferentresults.

InalabattheBGSnearNottingham,I'mshownasimplebuteffectiveproofthatshaledoescontainthehydrocarbons—gasandoil—attheheartofthecurrentsurgeininterest.

Afewchunksoftherockaredroppedintoabeakerofwaterandgentlyheateduntiltheyproducetinybubbleswhichriselikestringsofpearlstothesurface.

Itisasightwhichisbothbeautifulandsignificant—thebubblesaremethane,whichthegovernmenthopeswillformanewsourceofhomegrownenergy.

Thegasandoilwereformedmillionsofyearsagowhentinyplantsandotherorganismsaccumulatedonthefloorofanancientandwarmocean—atonestageBritainlayinthetropics.

Thisorganicmatterwasthencompactedandcookedbynaturalgeologicalwarmthwhichtransformeditintothefuelsinsuchdemandnow.

Soonequestionisthe"totalorganiccontent"oftheshale—howmuchorganicmaterialisheldinside—andtherecanbelargevariationsinthis.

Butestablishingthattheshaleisladenwithfossilfuelsisonlyonepartofthestory.Thesamples,extractedfromdeepunderground,thenneedtobestudiedtoseehowreadilytheywouldreleasethefuels.

SotheBGSscientistsfitsmallblocksoftheshaleintodevicesthatsqueezeitandheatit—tryingtomimictheconditionsthatwouldbeexperiencedduringafrackingoperation,whenhighpressurewaterandchemicalsareinjectedintotheshaletobreakitapart.

Understandinghowtheshalebehavesisessentialtoformingajudgmentonhowlucrativeitmightprovetobe—orhowunyieldingordifficult,assomeshalecanturnouttobe.

DrCarolineGraham,aspecialistingeomechanicswiththeBGS,explainedwhattheresearchintotherocksampleswastryingtoachieve:"We'llbeabletounderstandbetterhowlikelytheyaretoproducecertainamountsofgas,howeasilytheywillfrackandthereforeitwillgiveusafarbetterideaofhowviabletheUKdepositsareeconomicallyspeaking."

Theseareearlydaysforthescience.AndhopesthatBritainwillbeabletocopyAmerica'sshalerevolutionmaybeunrealistic.

Aseniorexecutivefromaglobalenergycompanyoncesaidadecisiononwhethertoexploitanewshale"play"orareawouldonlybemadeafter40-60explorationwellshadbeendug.

ProfessorPaulStevens,anenergyexpertwiththeRoyalInstituteforInternationalAffairs,said:"It'sgoingtotakealotmorewellstobedrilledandalotmorewellstobefracturedbeforeweevengetanideaoftheextenttowhichwemightexpectashalegasrevolutionandoverwhattimeperiod."

SoestablishingthatBritishshaleis