高盛-2024年全球經(jīng)濟分析：十大圖表

30December2024|6:46PMEST

GlobalEconomicsAnalyst

Top10Chartsof2024

JanHatzius

+1(212)902-0394|

jan.hatzius@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

JosephBriggs

+1(212)902-2163|

joseph.briggs@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

SarahDong

+1(212)357-9741|

sarah.dong@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

MeganPeters

+44(20)7051-2058|

megan.l.peters@

GoldmanSachsInternational

nWewishallofourreadersahealthy,happy,andprosperous2025.InourlastGlobalEconomicsAnalystof2024,weuse10ofourfavoritechartstoillustratethekeyglobalthemesthatstoodoutthispastyearandarelikelytoshapetheyearahead.

nGlobalGDPgrowthexceededconsensusexpectationsin2024,mostlyduetoUSoutperformance.StrongerUSgrowthrelativetoothermajoreconomieswaslargelydrivenbyanoutsizedincreaseinproductivityandalowersavingrate,asUSconsumersweremorewillingtosavelessandspendmoreonthebackofsolidhousehold?nances.

nIn?ationcooledinmostmajoreconomiesin2024andunderlyingin?ation

progressshouldcontinuein2025,especiallysincefullyrebalancedlabormarketsshouldsupportcontinuedwageandservicesdisin?ation.AndwhilepolicyshiftsinPresident-electTrump’ssecondtermcoulddelayin?ation’sreturntotarget,

effectsshouldberelativelysmall(especiallyoutsideoftheUS)andareunlikelytoderailtheoveralldisin?ationprocess.

nTradepolicywilllikelybeamajordriveroftheglobaleconomicoutlookin2025,asweexpecttheincomingTrumpadministrationwillannouncetariffsonimportsfromChinaandEuropeanautosrelativelysoonafterinauguration.Thesetariffs

andrelatedincreaseintradepolicyuncertaintywilllikelyweighmoderatelyon

globalgrowthbuthaveonlyamodestin?ationimpact—re?ectingmoderatepriceincreasesintheUSbutsmallimpactselsewhere—in2025,althougheffects

couldincreaseiftheUSimposesabroadersetoftariffs.

nGivenourforecastsforonlymoderatepolicychangesandcontinueddisin?ation,ourend-2025policyrateforecastsaredovishrelativetomarketpricingformosteconomiesinourcoverage(89%onaGDP-weightedbasis).Furthermore,

historysuggeststhatcentralbankswillhavelimitedtoleranceforincrementallabormarketdeterioration,whichwouldstrengthenthecaseforadditionalratecuts.

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcerti?cationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html.

GoldmanSachsGlobalEconomicsAnalyst

Top10Chartsof2024

Exhibit1:GlobalandUSGrowthOutperformedConsensusForecastsin2024

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit2:USGrowthOutperformanceWasDrivenbyanOutsizedIncreaseinProductivity…

Source:HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

30December20242

Exhibit3:…AndaLowerSavingRateRelativetoOtherCountries

Source:HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit4:In?ationHasCooledSharplyinMostMajorEconomies

Source:HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

30December20243

Exhibit5:LaborMarketsAreFullyRebalanced,WhichShouldSupportContinuedWageandServicesDisin?ation

Source:HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit6:ThePolicyRateDivergenceWeExpectIsUnlikelytoDerailtheDisin?ationProcess

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

30December20244

Exhibit7:USTariffsandIncreasedTradePolicyUncertaintyWillLikelyWeighonGlobalGrowthin2025...

Source:HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit8:...AndProvideaModerateBoosttoUSPrices,WithSmallerImpactsElsewhere

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

30December20245

Exhibit9:GivenOurAssumptionsforOnlyModerateUSPolicyChangesandContinuedDisin?ation,OurRatesForecastsRemainDovishRelativetoMarketPricing

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit10:WeContinuetoSeeIncrementalLaborMarketDeteriorationasaRiskthatWouldStrengthentheCaseForAdditionalRateCutsin2025

Source:HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

30December20246

GlobalEconomicsTeam

BonusCharts

Exhibit11:TheAIInvestmentCycleIsWellUnderway...

Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit12:...ButAdoptionRatesRemainLow,SuggestingthatSigni?cantImpactsonOverallLaborProductivityAreStillSeveralYearsOff

Information

Professional,Scientific,andTechnical EducationalServicesFinanceandInsuranceRealEstateandRental

Arts,Entertainment,andRecreationHealthCareandSocialAssistance

Admin/Support/WasteManagement RetailTradeWholesaleTrade OtherServicesManufacturing

TransportationandWarehousingConstruction

AccommodationandFoodServices

AllIndustries

0510152025

ShareofUSFirmsUsingAIby

Sector(%)

.October2023

December2024NextSixMonths

0510152025

Source:CensusBureau,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

30December20247

GoldmanSachsGlobalEconomicsAnalyst

Exhibit13:WeContinuetoSeePotentialForImprovedHealthOutcomestoBoostProductivityintheUS

UpsidetoUSGDPFromHealthcareInnovation(ex.GLP-1s):Scenarios

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%

USDiseaseBurdenFully"CatchesDown"toDMAverage

10%DeclineinDiseaseBurden,ExclusiveSkewtoPrime-AgeWorkers

10-YearStepForwardinHealthProgressatAverageDMRate,CaregivingBurdenReduced

10-YearStepForwardinHealthProgressatAverageDMRate,CaregivingBurdenDelayed

10%DeclineinDiseaseBurden,ExclusiveSkewtoAges55+

10-YearStepForwardinHealthProgressatAverageUSRate

IncreasedLaborSupply

ReducedEarlyMortality

ReducedCaregivingBurden

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit14:ImmigrationHelpedRebalanceDMLaborMarketsin2024butShouldPlayLessofaRolein2025

Percentagepoints

ImmigrationBoosttoPopulationGrowth

Percentagepoints

3.5

3

2.5

2

1.5

1

0.5

0

2017-2019TrendCurrent2025Forecast

CanadaAustraliaNewUKUSGermanyFranceDM

ZealandAverage

3.5

3

2.5

2

1.5

1

0.5

0

Source:HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

30December20248

GoldmanSachsGlobalEconomicsAnalyst

DisclosureAppendix

RegAC

We,JanHatzius,JosephBriggs,SarahDongandMeganPeters,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyre?ectourpersonalviews,whichhavenotbeenin?uencedbyconsiderationsofthe?rm’sbusinessorclientrelationships.

Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs’GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.

Disclosures

Regulatorydisclosures

DisclosuresrequiredbyUnitedStateslawsandregulations

Seecompany-speci?cregulatorydisclosuresaboveforanyofthefollowingdisclosuresrequiredastocompaniesreferredtointhisreport:managerorco-managerinapendingtransaction;1%orotherownership;compensationforcertainservices;typesofclientrelationships;managed/co-managedpublicofferingsinpriorperiods;directorships;forequitysecurities,marketmakingand/orspecialistrole.GoldmanSachstradesormaytradeasa

principalindebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)ofissuersdiscussedinthisreport.

Thefollowingareadditionalrequireddisclosures:Ownershipandmaterialcon?ictsofinterest:GoldmanSachspolicyprohibitsitsanalysts,professionalsreportingtoanalystsandmembersoftheirhouseholdsfromowningsecuritiesofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.

Analystcompensation:Analystsarepaidinpartbasedonthepro?tabilityofGoldmanSachs,whichincludesinvestmentbankingrevenues.Analyst

asof?cerordirector:GoldmanSachspolicygenerallyprohibitsitsanalysts,personsreportingtoanalystsormembersoftheirhouseholdsfromservingasanof?cer,directororadvisorofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.Non-U.S.Analysts:Non-U.S.analystsmaynotbe

associatedpersonsofGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCandthereforemaynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241orFINRARule2242restrictionsoncommunicationswithsubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbytheanalysts.

AdditionaldisclosuresrequiredunderthelawsandregulationsofjurisdictionsotherthantheUnitedStates

Thefollowingdisclosuresarethoserequiredbythejurisdictionindicated,excepttotheextentalreadymadeabovepursuanttoUnitedStateslawsandregulations.Australia:GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtdanditsaf?liatesarenotauthoriseddeposit-takinginstitutions(asthattermisde?nedinthe

BankingAct1959(Cth))inAustraliaanddonotprovidebankingservices,norcarryonabankingbusiness,inAustralia.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor“wholesaleclients”withinthemeaningoftheAustralianCorporationsAct,unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.In

producingresearchreports,membersofGlobalInvestmentResearchofGoldmanSachsAustraliamayattendsitevisitsandothermeetingshostedbythecompaniesandotherentitieswhicharethesubjectofitsresearchreports.InsomeinstancesthecostsofsuchsitevisitsormeetingsmaybemetinpartorinwholebytheissuersconcernedifGoldmanSachsAustraliaconsidersitisappropriateandreasonableinthespeci?ccircumstancesrelatingtothesitevisitormeeting.Totheextentthatthecontentsofthisdocumentcontainsany?nancialproductadvice,itisgeneraladviceonlyandhas

beenpreparedbyGoldmanSachswithouttakingintoaccountaclient’sobjectives,?nancialsituationorneeds.Aclientshould,beforeactingonanysuchadvice,considertheappropriatenessoftheadvicehavingregardtotheclient’sownobjectives,?nancialsituationandneeds.AcopyofcertainGoldmanSachsAustraliaandNewZealanddisclosureofinterestsandacopyofGoldmanSachs’AustralianSell-SideResearchIndependencePolicyStatementareavailableat:/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html.Brazil:DisclosureinformationinrelationtoCVMResolutionn.20isavailableat/worldwide/brazil/area/gir/index.html.Whereapplicable,theBrazil-registeredanalystprimarilyresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreport,asde?nedinArticle20ofCVMResolutionn.20,isthe?rstauthornamedatthebeginningofthisreport,unlessindicatedotherwiseattheendofthetext.Canada:Thisinformationisbeingprovidedtoyouforinformationpurposesonlyandisnot,andundernocircumstancesshouldbeconstruedas,anadvertisement,offeringorsolicitationbyGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCforpurchasersof

securitiesinCanadatotradeinanyCanadiansecurity.GoldmanSachs&Co.LLCisnotregisteredasadealerinanyjurisdictioninCanadaunder

applicableCanadiansecuritieslawsandgenerallyisnotpermittedtotradeinCanadiansecuritiesandmaybeprohibitedfromsellingcertainsecuritiesandproductsincertainjurisdictionsinCanada.IfyouwishtotradeinanyCanadiansecuritiesorotherproductsinCanadapleasecontactGoldman

SachsCanadaInc.,anaf?liateofTheGoldmanSachsGroupInc.,oranotherregisteredCanadiandealer.HongKong:Furtherinformationonthe

securitiesofcoveredcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedonrequestfromGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.India:FurtherinformationonthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedfromGoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLimited,ResearchAnalyst-SEBIRegistrationNumberINH000001493,951-A,RationalHouse,AppasahebMaratheMarg,Prabhadevi,Mumbai400025,India,CorporateIdentityNumberU74140MH2006FTC160634,Phone+912266169000,Fax+912266169001.GoldmanSachsmaybene?ciallyown1%ormoreofthesecurities(assuchtermisde?nedinclause2(h)theIndianSecuritiesContracts(Regulation)Act,1956)ofthesubjectcompanyorcompanies

referredtointhisresearchreport.Investmentinsecuritiesmarketaresubjecttomarketrisks.Readalltherelateddocumentscarefullybefore

investing.RegistrationgrantedbySEBIandcerti?cationfromNISMinnowayguaranteeperformanceoftheintermediaryorprovideanyassuranceofreturnstoinvestors.GoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLimitedInvestorGrievanceE-mail:india-client-support@.ComplianceOf?cer:AnilRajput|Tel:+912266169000|Email:anil.m.rajput@.Japan:Seebelow.Korea:Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor

“professionalinvestors”withinthemeaningoftheFinancialServicesandCapitalMarketsAct,unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.Further

informationonthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedfromGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,SeoulBranch.NewZealand:GoldmanSachsNewZealandLimitedanditsaf?liatesareneither“registeredbanks”nor“deposittakers”(asde?nedintheReserveBankofNewZealandAct1989)inNewZealand.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedfor“wholesaleclients”(asde?nedintheFinancialAdvisersAct2008)unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.AcopyofcertainGoldmanSachsAustraliaandNewZealanddisclosureofinterestsisavailableat:/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html.Russia:ResearchreportsdistributedintheRussianFederationarenotadvertisingasde?nedintheRussianlegislation,butareinformationandanalysisnothavingproductpromotionastheirmainpurposeanddonot

provideappraisalwithinthemeaningoftheRussianlegislationonappraisalactivity.Researchreportsdonotconstituteapersonalizedinvestment

recommendationasde?nedinRussianlawsandregulations,arenotaddressedtoaspeci?cclient,andarepreparedwithoutanalyzingthe?nancial

circumstances,investmentpro?lesorriskpro?lesofclients.GoldmanSachsassumesnoresponsibilityforanyinvestmentdecisionsthatmaybetakenbyaclientoranyotherpersonbasedonthisresearchreport.Singapore:GoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte.(CompanyNumber:198602165W),whichisregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore,acceptslegalresponsibilityforthisresearch,andshouldbecontactedwithrespecttoanymattersarisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,thisresearch.Taiwan:Thismaterialisforreferenceonlyandmustnotbereprintedwithoutpermission.Investorsshouldcarefullyconsidertheirowninvestmentrisk.Investmentresultsaretheresponsibilityoftheindividualinvestor.UnitedKingdom:PersonswhowouldbecategorizedasretailclientsintheUnitedKingdom,assuchtermisde?nedintherulesoftheFinancialConductAuthority,shouldreadthis

researchinconjunctionwithpriorGoldmanSachsresearchonthecoveredcompaniesreferredtohereinandshouldrefertotheriskwarningsthathavebeensenttothembyGoldmanSachsInternational.Acopyoftheseriskswarnings,andaglossaryofcertain?nancialtermsusedinthisreport,are

availablefromGoldmanSachsInternationalonrequest.

EuropeanUnionandUnitedKingdom:DisclosureinformationinrelationtoArticle6(2)oftheEuropeanCommissionDelegatedRegulation(EU)(2016/958)supplementingRegulation(EU)No596/2014oftheEuropeanParliamentandoftheCouncil(includingasthatDelegatedRegulationis

30December20249

GoldmanSachsGlobalEconomicsAnalyst

implementedintoUnitedKingdomdomesticlawandregulationfollowingtheUnitedKingdom’sdeparturefromtheEuropeanUnionandtheEuropeanEconomicArea)withregardtoregulatorytechnicalstandardsforthetechnicalarrangementsforobjectivepresentationofinvestment

recommendationsorotherinformationrecommendingorsuggestinganinvestmentstrategyandfordisclosureofparticularinterestsorindicationsofcon?ictsofinterestisavailableat/disclosures/europeanpolicy.htmlwhichstatestheEuropeanPolicyforManagingCon?ictsof

InterestinConnectionwithInvestmentResearch.

Japan:GoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.isaFinancialInstrumentDealerregisteredwiththeKantoFinancialBureauunderregistrationnumberKinsho69,andamemberofJapanSecuritiesDealersAssociation,FinancialFuturesAssociationofJapanTypeIIFinancialInstrumentsFirmsAssociation,The

InvestmentTrustsAssociation,Japan,andJapanInvestmentAdvisersAssociation.Salesandpurchaseofequitiesaresubjecttocommission

pre-determinedwithclientsplusconsumptiontax.Seecompany-speci?cdisclosuresastoanyapplicabledisclosuresrequiredbyJapanesestockexchanges,theJapaneseSecuritiesDealersAssociationortheJapaneseSecuritiesFinanceCompany.

Globalproduct;distributingentities

GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchproducesanddistributesresearchproductsforclientsofGoldmanSachsonaglobalbasis.AnalystsbasedinGoldmanSachsof?cesaroundtheworldproduceresearchonindustriesandcompanies,andresearchonmacroeconomics,currencies,commoditiesandportfoliostrategy.ThisresearchisdisseminatedinAustraliabyGoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtd(ABN21006797897);inBrazilbyGoldmanSachsdoBrasilCorretoradeTítuloseValoresMobiliáriosS.A.;PublicCommunicationChannelGoldmanSachsBrazil:08007275764and/or

contatogoldmanbrasil@.AvailableWeekdays(exceptholidays),from9amto6pm.CanaldeComunica??ocomoPúblicoGoldmanSachsBrasil:08007275764e/oucontatogoldmanbrasil@.Horáriodefuncionamento:segunda-feiraàsexta-feira(excetoferiados),das9hàs18h;inCanada

byGoldmanSachs&Co.LLC;inHongKongbyGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.;inIndiabyGoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLtd.;inJapanby

GoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.;intheRepublicofKoreabyGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,SeoulBranch;inNewZealandbyGoldmanSachsNew

ZealandLimited;inRussiabyOOOGoldmanSachs;inSingaporebyGoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte.(CompanyNumber:198602165W);andintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyGoldmanSachs&Co.LLC.GoldmanSachsInternationalhasapprovedthisresearchinconnectionwithitsdistributionintheUnitedKingdom.

GoldmanSachsInternational(“GSI”),authorisedbythePrudentialRegulationAuthority(“PRA”)andregulatedbytheFinancialConductAuthority(“FCA”)andthePRA,hasapprovedthisresearchinconnectionwithitsdistributionintheUnitedKingdom.

EuropeanEconomicArea:GSI,authorisedbythePRAandregulatedbytheFCAandthePRA,disseminatesresearchinthefollowingjurisdictionswithintheEuropeanEconomicArea:theGrandDuchyofLuxembourg,Italy,theKingdomofBelgium,theKingdomofDenmark,theKingdomof

Norway,theRepublicofFinlandandtheRepublicofIreland;GSI-SuccursaledeParis(Parisbranch)whichisauthorisedbytheFrenchAutoritéde

contr?leprudentieletderesolution(“ACPR”)andregulatedbytheAutoritédecontr?leprudentieletderesolutionandtheAutoritédesmarches

?nanciers(“AMF”)disseminatesresearchinFrance;GSI-SucursalenEspa?a(Madridbranch)authorizedinSpainbytheComisiónNacionaldel

MercadodeValoresdisseminatesresearchintheKingdomofSpain;GSI-SwedenBank?lial(Stockholmbranch)isauthorizedbytheSFSAasa“thirdcountrybranch”inaccordancewithChapter4,Section4oftheSwedishSecuritiesandMarketAct(Sw.lag(2007:528)omv?rdepappersmarknaden)

disseminatesresearchintheKingdomofSweden;GoldmanSachsBankEuropeSE(“GSBE”)isacreditinstitutionincorporatedinGermanyand,withintheSingleSupervisoryMechanism,subjecttodirectprudentialsupervisionbytheEuropeanCentralBankandinotherrespectssupervisedbyGermanFederalFinancialSupervisoryAuthority(BundesanstaltfürFinanzdienstleistungsaufsicht,BaFin)andDeutscheBundesbankanddisseminatesresearchintheFederalRepublicofGermanyandthosejurisdictionswithintheEuropeanEconomicAreawhereGSIisnotauthorisedtodisseminateresearch

andadditionally,GSBE,CopenhagenBranch?lialafGSBE,Tyskland,supervisedbytheDanishFinancialAuthoritydisseminatesresearchintheKingdomofDenmark;GSBE-SucursalenEspa?a(Madridbranch)subject(toalimitedextent)tolocalsupervisionbytheBankofSpaindisseminatesresearchintheKingdomofSpain;GSBE-SuccursaleItalia(Milanbranch)totherelevantapplicableextent,subjecttolocalsupervisionbytheBankofItaly(Bancad’Italia)andtheItalianCompaniesandExchangeCommission(CommissioneNazionaleperleSocietàelaBorsa“Consob”)disseminatesresearchin

Italy;GSBE-SuccursaledeParis(Parisbranch),supervisedbytheAMFandbytheACPRdisseminatesresearchinFrance;andGSBE-SwedenBank?lial(Stockholmbranch),toalimitedextent,subjecttolocalsupervisionbytheSwedishFinancialSupervisoryAuthority(Finansinpektionen)disseminatesresearchintheKingdomofSweden.

Generaldisclosures

Thisresearchisforourclientsonly.OtherthandisclosuresrelatingtoGoldmanSachs,thisresearchisbasedoncurrentpublicinformationthatweconsiderreliable,butwedonotrepresentitisaccurateorcomplete,anditshouldnotbereliedonassuch.Theinformation,opinions,estimatesandforecastscontainedhereinareasofthedatehereofandaresubjecttochangewithoutpriornoti?cation.Weseektoupdateourresearchas

appropriate,butvariousregulationsmaypreventusfromdoingso.Otherthancertainindustryreportspublishedonaperiodicbasis,thelargemajorityofreportsarepublishedatirregularintervalsasappropriateintheanalyst’sjudgment.

GoldmanSachsconductsaglobalfull-service,integratedinvestmentbanking,investmentmanagement,andbrokeragebusiness.WehaveinvestmentbankingandotherbusinessrelationshipswithasubstantialpercentageofthecompaniescoveredbyGlobalInvestmentResearch.GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC,theUnitedStatesbrokerdealer,isamemberofSIPC().

Oursalespeople,traders,andotherprofessionalsmayprovideoralorwrittenmarketcommentaryortradingstrategiestoourclientsandprincipal

tradingdesksthatre?ectopinionsthatarecontrarytotheopinionsexpressedinthisresearch.Ourassetmanagementarea,principaltradingdesksandinvestingbusinessesmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearch.

Weandouraf?liates,of?cers,directors,andemployeeswillfromtimetotimehavelongorshortpositionsin,actasprincipalin,andbuyorsell,thesecuritiesorderivatives,ifany,referredtointhisresearch,unlessotherwiseprohibitedbyregulationorGoldmanSachspolicy.

TheviewsattributedtothirdpartypresentersatGoldmanSachsarrangedconferences,includingindividualsfromotherpartsofGoldmanSachs,donotnecessarilyre?ectthoseofGlobalInvestmentResearchandarenotanof?cialviewofGoldmanSachs.

Anythirdpartyreferencedherein,includinganysalespeople,tradersandotherprofessionalsormembersoftheirhousehold,mayhavepositionsintheproductsmentionedthatareinconsistentwiththeviewsexpressedbyanalystsnamedinthisreport.

Thisresearchisfocusedoninvestmentthemesacrossmarkets,industriesandsectors.Itdoesnotattempttodistinguishbetweentheprospectsorperformanceof,orprovideanalysisof,individualcompanieswithinanyindustryorsectorwedescribe.

Anytradingrecommendationinthisresearchrelatingtoanequityorcreditsecurityorsecuritieswithinanindustryorsectorisre?ectiveoftheinvestmentthemebeingdiscussedandisnotarecommendationofanysuchsecurityinisolation.

Thisresearchisnotanoffertosellorthesolicitationofanoffertobuyanysecurityinanyjurisdictionwheresuchanofferorsolicitationwouldbe

illegal.Itdoesnotconstituteapersonalrecommendatio