2030年歐洲汽車售后市場(chǎng)展望報(bào)告 Aftermarket 2030- The Fleet Imperative

Aftermarket2030—

TheFleetImperative

June2023

ByAlbertWaas,AlexanderBrenner,RobertHerzberg,CarolineJantsch,andFrankSchlehuber

BostonConsultingGrouppartnerswithleadersinbusinessandsocietytotackletheirmost

importantchallengesandcapturetheirgreatestopportunities.BCGwasthepioneerinbusinessstrategywhenitwasfoundedin1963.Today,wehelpclientswithtotaltransformation—inspiringcomplexchange,enablingorganizationstogrow,buildingcompetitiveadvantage,anddriving

bottom-lineimpact.

Tosucceed,organizationsmustblenddigitalandhumancapabilities.Ourdiverse,globalteams

bringdeepindustryandfunctionalexpertise

andarangeofperspectivestosparkchange.

BCGdeliverssolutionsthroughleading-edge

managementconsultingalongwithtechnologyanddesign,corporateanddigitalventures—

andbusinesspurpose.Weworkinauniquely

collaborativemodelacrossthefirmand

throughoutalllevelsoftheclientorganization,

generatingresultsthatallowourclientstothrive.

CLEPA,theEuropeanAssociationofAutomotiveSuppliers,isthevoiceoftheautomotive

supplyindustryinEuropelinkingthesectorto

policymakersinBrusselsandGeneva.CLEPA

representsover3,000companiessupplyingstate-of-the-artcomponentsandinnovativetechnologyforsafe,smart,andsustainablemobility,investing

over30billioneurosyearlyinresearchand

development.Automotivesuppliersdirectly

employabout1.7millionpeopleinEurope.

Foundedin1959,ourvisionisfortheautomotivesupplyindustrytobetheleadingproviderof

innovativetechnologiesandsolutionsforsafe,

sustainable,andsmartmobilityaroundthe

world.Ourmissionistoco-createtheframeworkconditionsforadvancingasustainableand

competitivesupplyindustryinEurope,innovatingmobilityandbringingprosperityandemploymenttosocietyatlarge.

Contents

02|AtaGlance

03|TheEvolutionoftheFleetBusiness

?12TrendsWillShapetheFleetIndustry

?MythsRegardingFleetTrends

08|TheFleetBusinessisGrowingin

theEuropeanAftermarket

12|FourCritical

DecisionsAlongControlPoints

14|Strategic

Implicationsfor

AftermarketPlayers

16|OurConclusion:

AftermarketPlayersmust

PreparefortheGrowingFleetBusiness

AtAGlance

Fleetvehiclesarecapturingasignificantandrisingshareofa

growingEuropeanaftermarket.By2030,fivecountries(Germany,France,UnitedKingdom,Netherlands,andPoland)alonewill

accountforafleetaftermarketsizeof€45billion(~37%ofthetotalaftermarket).Thisrisingfleetsharewillbringaboutashiftinthe

aftermarket,asmorecustomerswillbeB2B,fleetswillhaveasig-nificantlyhigherelectrificationrate(48%in2030),whilefleetPCswillhaveanaverageageof~2.9years(in2030).Thiswillrequireplayerstopositionthemselvesstrategicallyinthiseverchangingaftermarket.

ComprehensiveApproach

Inanextensivestudy,BostonConsultingGroup(BCG)collaboratedwiththeEuropeanAssociationofAutomotiveSuppliers(CLEPA)toidentifyfleetaftermarketdrivers,forecastthefleetmarketsizewithinthetotalaftermarket,anddetermine

strategicrecommendationsforplayerswithinthisfield.Weconducted>30interviewswithaftermarketindustryexpertsandconductedadedicatedsurveytomedium-andheavy-dutytruckfleetmanagersacrossEuropetobaseourextensiveforecastmodel.

ThestudyfocusesonfivekeyEuropeancountries(Germany,France,UnitedKingdom,Netherlands,andPoland)anddiffer-entiatesfleetsalongpassengercars(PC),lightcommercialvehicles(LCV),andmedium-andheavydutytrucks(MHDT)aswellastrailersinspecificareas.Incertainanalysispropulsiontypes,agegroupsandfleettypesweredifferentiated.

Allmarketforecastsconsiderageneralizedinflationrateandfocuspartspricesontheretaillevelwithoutwagesorothercosteffects.

TheEvolutionoftheFleetBusiness

12TrendsWillShapetheFleetIndustry

sinflation

A

andinterestratescontinuetodriveup

costs,andinginthe

customerdemandandloyaltyarechang-mobilitysector,institutionalofferingsfor

passengercarfleetprovidersareontherise.Consideringaveryslow-growingEuropeanpassengercarparc,theshift

fromprivatelyownedcarstofleetcarswillhaveasignificanteffectontheautomotiveaftermarket.Customerrequire-

ments,carcharacteristics,andcostpressureswillchange.

Inthecommercialvehicle(CV)segment,costpressuresandtheriseofe-commercearecausingthedemandfor

transporttogrow,therebydrivingupthefleetshare.Thealreadyhighshareoffleet-operatedLCVsandMHDTswillcontinuetogrowandmakeuseofadvancedtechnologies.

Ingeneral,weseefourkeymarketdevelopmentsdriving

thegrowthanddevelopmentofthefleetsectorinthe

aftermarket.Inordertobothaddresstheneedsoffleetsasanemergingcustomersegmentandmaintainand

strengthentheirmarketposition,aftermarketplayersmustadjusttheirstrategicfocus.

2AFTERMARKET2030—THEFLEETIMPERATIVEBOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP+CLEPA3

Exhibit1|12trendsthatwillshapethefleetindustryuntil2030

MarketandValueChain

1Fleetsharegrowingby~6ppforPCsandLCVsand~10ppforHCVsandtrailersfrom2025to20302Ongoingmarketconsolidationandentryofnewmarketplayers

3Increasingregulationwithnewlypublishedordersondataexchange,designdirective,etc.4Risingpressureoncostasfleets'marginstighten

FleetSustainability

5Sustainabilityfactorsarebecomingakeypurchasingcriterionforfleetmanagers

6RisingEVsharereaching62%BEVforPCand22%BEVforLCVinfleetparcby2030

7AcceleratingH2andEVadoptionforMHDTs,despiteuncertaintyregardingprevailingtech8Tighteningneedforsustainabilitytransparency(e.g.,CO2footprint)

DataExchange

Risingneedforfleet-to-carconnectivitydrivenbycostreasons,w/22%ofPCs,27%ofLCVs,and47%ofMHDTsconnected

Growingdemandforfleet-to-workshopconnection

9

10

MobilityTransformation

Shifttoholisticmobilitysolutionfosteredby40%–50%ofcustomersaskingmorefrequentlyformobilityservices

Growingdemandforbatterymanagementandcharginginfrastructureservices,with60%ofchargerslocatedinfourEUcountries

11

12

Sources:MarketParticipantInterviews;Marketreports;BCGconsumermobilitystudy;BCGCaseExperience;BCGTruckAftermarketSurvey;BCGanalysis

4AFTERMARKET2030—THEFLEETIMPERATIVE

MARKETANDVALUECHAIN

WhilethenumberofPCspercapitaisstagnating,particu-larlyinWesternEuropeandtheNordics,thefleetparcsizeisgrowing,withacompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)of4.8%expecteduntil2030.InthePCsegment,fleetgrowthisdrivenbycustomersshiftingfromowningtoleasing

vehicles,therebymitigatingresidualvaluerisk(especiallyforelectricvehicles,orEVs),astheydemandflexibleand

convenientsolutions.IntheCVsegment,risinge-com-

merceandtherelatedgrowthofthetransportbusinessarefuelingthefleetmarket.By2030,thesegrowthdriversareexpectedtoresultinafleetshareof15%forPCs,41%forLCVs,69%forMHDTs,and79%fortrailers.Fortheafter-

market,thisprovidestheopportunitytoincreasethenum-berofcustomerswithhighvolumesofbusiness,expand

theservicebusiness(ratherthanjustparts),andgrowthecustomersegmentwithinastagnatingmarket.However,aftermarketplayerswillalsoneedtoadapttheirbusiness-estothiscustomersegment,whichhassubstantially

differentcharacteristicsthanthetotalvehicleparc.For

instance,thefleetBatteryElectricVehicle(BEV)shareisexpectedtoreach62%forPCsby2030.Atthesametime,fleetvehiclesaresignificantlyyounger,withanaveragePCageof2.9years(vs.>8yearsfortheaveragecarparc).

Regulationisincreasingintheautomotiveindustry,whichalreadyhasmorethan150EUregulations.1Onepieceof

regulationthathasbeenheavilydiscussedrecentlyand

hasastrongimpactontheaftermarketistheDataAct,a

proposalfromtheEUthataimstoregulatetheaccessanduseofdata.Currentissuesincluderestrictedaccessto

dataforplayersotherthanoriginalequipmentmanufactur-ers(OEMs),alackofdataprotection,andtheabsenceof

faircompetitionwhenitcomestorepairandmaintenance(R&M).While,asahorizontalregulation,theactcovers

severalsectors,someautomotivegroupsaredemandingsector-specificregulationthatbalancescybersecurity

needswithensuringacompetitiveenvironment.

Fleetsareconfrontedwithtightmargins,so,asmainte-

nanceisoneofthetopfivetotalcostofownership(TCO)componentsofPCfleets,workshopswillbeurgedtopro-videcost-efficientsolutions.However,astheadoptionof

BEVscontinuestorise,theaveragespendofR&MwithinPCfleetsisexpectedtodeclineby37%by2030.Similarly,intheMHDTsegment,slimmarginsareresponsiblefor

85%offleetsacrossEuropespecifyingpriceasoneoftheirtopthreeKeyPurchasingCriteria(KPC)whenselectingaworkshop.

1acea.(2022).TheAutomotiveRegulatoryGuide.

FLEETSUSTAINABILITY

Sustainabilityfactorsarebecomingmoreandmoreim-

portantforfleets,especiallywhentheyareinlinewith

TCO.ForPCfleets,importantdriversofpurchasingdeci-

sionsincludebeing“green,”suchasthroughfuel-efficientsolutions,emissions,andpowertrains.Fleetsalsoview

sustainablemanufacturingasanimportantpurchasing

criterion,includingenergy-efficientproductionandtheuseofsustainablematerials.CVfleetsviewpowertrainand

othersustainabilityfactorsalongthevaluechainasakeypriorityoverthenexttwoyears;however,theyarenotyetatopKPCforselectingaworkshop.Thisindicatesthat,whiletheybelievesustainabilitytopicswillbecomecrucialinthecomingyears,MHDTfleetshavenotyetstartedimple-

mentingsustainabilityaspectsintotheiroperations.

PCandLCVfleetshaveaclearambitiontoraiseEVadop-tion.ForecastsfromthemarketmodelshowthatBEV

vehicleswillaccountfor62%ofPCfleetsand22%ofLCVfleetsby2030.However,severalexternalfactorsmaycon-

strainBEVadoption.Inparticular,theexpansionof

charginginfrastructure,theresidualvalueofbatteries,rawmaterialsupply,andbatteryperformanceareallmajor

constrainingfactors.InMHDTfleets,charginginfrastruc-tureandbatteryperformanceareconstrainingtheadop-tionofalternativepowertrainsevenmorethaninPCandLCVfleetsduetolongerdistancestraveled.Themarketisexperiencingstronguncertaintyregardingwhichpower-

trainwillprevailinthefuture,whichisdelayingnewvehi-clepurchases.Despitetheseuncertainties,theshareof

alternativepowertrainsinMHDTfleetsisprojectedtoriseinthecomingyears,reaching11%BEVand4%fuelcell

electricvehicle(FCEV)adoptionby2030.

InordertomeetdemandforBEVs,newEVplayerswillbeneededintheEuropeanmarket,whichmeansnon-Europe-anEVmanufacturerswillneedcollaborationmodelsto

providealocalnetworkforR&M.Forinstance,AIWAYS,aChineseEVmanufacturer,hasannouncedacooperationwiththeEuropeanpartsdistributorandworkshopchainoperatorATU.TheadvantageofcooperatingwithalocalplayeristheabilitytoquicklyofferstrongR&McoverageandentertheEuropeanmarketwithouthavingtomakesignificantinvestmentsorexpendconsiderabletimeset-tingupaservicenetwork.

GiventhatintheEU-2720%ofGHGemissionsarefromroadtransport,regulatoryrequirementsonemissions

standardsfortheautomotiveindustryaretightening.

BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP+CLEPA5

Forinstance,theEUhasreleasedits“Fitfor55”package

asakeysteptobecomingclimateneutralby2050.The

packagestatesthatcarbondioxide(CO2)emissionsfor

newlyregisteredPCsneedtobereducedby55%by2030

andnewICEvehicleregistrations,withtheexceptionof

e-fuels,willbebannedby2030.Thepackagealsoincludesrequirementstoincreasecoverageofcharginginfrastruc-

ture.AsimilarproposalhasbeenmadeforreducingCO2

emissionsfromtrucks,inwhichtheEUproposestowidenthescopeofcurrentregulationtoalsoincludesmaller

trucksandsetanewtargetofreducingCO2emissionsby

90%by2040.Tofurtherimprovesustainability,thereare

plansfor500+low-emissionzonesby2025and35+zero-

emissionzonesby2030inEurope.2Despitetheseregulato-ryefforts,theinterviewresultsshowthatfurthercommer-

cialandregulatorypressureisneededforstructural

change.Sustainabilityreportingwillbeakeyelementtoensureregulatorycompliance.

DATAEXCHANGE

Currently,~22%ofPCs,~27%ofLCVs,and~48%ofMHDTsinEuropeanfleetsareconnected.3Viaremotediagnosis,arepairestimatecanbegeneratedforconnectedvehiclesassoonastheyindicateanerror.Atthesametime,parts

orderscanbetriggereddirectlyviaremotediagnosisand

customerscanreceivein-carsuggestionsforspecificwork-shops.Partieswithdirectandreal-timedataaccesshaveanadvantageinservingcustomersofconnectedvehicles.

Additionally,thereisstrongoptimizationpotentialforafter-marketplayerswithdataaccessbyautomizingparts-order-ingprocesses,reducingin-persondiagnosesofvehicles,andensuringmore-efficientpartsdelivery.

Forfleets,akeychallengeintermsofconnectivityliesin

theintegrationofdifferentsolutions.Thisbecomesmore

complexwiththevaryingmaturityoftechnologyacross

vehiclegenerations,differentpropulsiontypesfortechni-

callyadvancedEVs,andvehiclesfromvariousOEMsusingdifferentconnectivitytools.Ahomogenousfleetcouldsolvethesechallenges;however,fleetshavetoservetheneedsofavarietyofcustomersandfleetmanagersprefertohaveamixedassortmentofvehiclesinordertostayindependentfromspecificOEMs.

HavingavastnumberofITsystems—evenwithinthe

sameworkshopchain—remainsakeychallenge.Witha

standardizedITbackbone,workshopscouldprovidetoolssuchasautomaticinvoicing,appointmentscheduling,a

chattool,andanintegrationoftheworkshopwithconnect-edvehicleswithinthefleet.Forexample,byfullyintegrat-

ingtheirITlandscapewithfleets’vehicles,workshops

couldpredictR&Mandofferanautomaticschedulingtool.Ontheonehand,thiscouldenhanceworkshops’occupan-cyratesandhelpavoidclusteringofR&Mactivity.Ontheotherhand,fleetscouldbenefitfromhigherpredictabilityandspreaddowntimesoftheirvehiclesovertime.

MOBILITYTRANSFORMATION

Traditionally,companycarswereofferedeitherasajob

requirement(e.g.,forsalespeople)orasacorporatebene-fit.Currently,10%–20%ofconsumerswouldconsidergivinguptheircar,and40%–50%ofconsumerswanttousemo-bilityservicesmorefrequently.Asaresult,companies’

mobilityofferingsareexpandingtoincludecar-,scooter-,

andbike-sharingopportunities,carrentals,andevenpublictransportationaspartofabroaderrangeofservicesto

meetemployeerequirementsforhigherflexibilityand

convenience.Thistransformationintransportationoptionsalsoimpactsaftermarketplayers.Workshops,forexample,canprovidecontractstoplayersthatrequirehighervol-

umesofrepairs,suchassubscriptionorrentalvehicles,whoseusers,onaverage,takelesscareofthevehicles.

AsBEVsgainrelevance,andtoreapthebenefitsofthe

positiveenvironmentalimpactofthispropulsiontype,itisnecessarytoconsidertheoptionsthatexistforbatteries

aftertheirfirstlifeinavehicle.By2030,itisexpectedthat~75%ofEVbatterieswillberecycled,~15%–20%willhaveasecondlifeintheformofBEVspares/remanufactured,

stationarystorage,etc.,and~5%willsimplybedisposedof.Inordertoensureregulatorycomplianceofaminimum

numberofrecycledmaterials,theEUwillrequireabatterypassportforallEVbatteriesby2026.Asbatteriesaccountfor40%ofthevaluecreationforBEVs,andassucharea

coreTCOdriver,thiswillbeparticularlyrelevantforfleets.4

Asmentionedpreviously,chargingstationscurrentlyre-

mainaconstrainingfactorforBEVadoption.Twooutof

threeEVownershaveaccesstochargingstationsattheirhomeaswellastheirworkplaceandtendtouseprivate

chargingmorefrequently.However,publicchargingsta-

tionswillprovidethemajorityoftheenergyconsumedbyBEVs.Withmorethan60%oftheEuropeanchargingsta-tionscurrentlyconcentratedwithinfourEuropeancoun-

tries,andgiventherequirementsoftheEU“Fitfor55”

package,thereisastronginvestmentneedtobuildupthisinfrastructure.5

Priortothestudy,weanticipatedcertaintrendsthatwereultimatelyproventobetruebasedonouranalysis.

2CleanCities.(2022).Thedevelopmenttrendsoflowandzero-emissionzonesinEurope.

3ArvalMobilityObservatory.(2022).MobilityandFleetBarometer2022:GlobalReport.

4BundesministeriumfürWirtschaftundKlimaschutz.(25.April2022).Darumgeht’sbeimBatteriepassfürElektroautos.

https://www.bmwk.de/Redaktion/DE/Artikel/Industrie/Batteriezellfertigung/batteriepass.html

5EuropeanCommission.(2021).EuropeanAlternativeFuelsObservatory.

6AFTERMARKET2030—THEFLEETIMPERATIVE

MythsRegardingFleetTrends

Intermsofmarketandvaluechain,weanticipatedthe

fleetsharetobewellabove50%forPCandLCVsand90%forMHDTandtrailerfleets.However,wefoundthatthe

fleetshareliesat~15%forPCs,~41%forLCVs,~69%for

MHDTs,and~79%fortrailers.Wewerealsoabletocon-

firmthatfleetstypicallyuseauthorizedchannelsinthe

firstfewyearswhenwarrantiesstillapply;however,they

arealsoopentousingtheindependentaftermarket(IAM).Thestudyrevealsthat,withinthesustainabilitytrend

bucket,fleetsarecostdrivenandpreoccupiedwiththe

transitiontoEV,yettheydonotemphasizesustainability

alongthevaluechainortheuseofremanufacturedparts.Thestudyalsorevealsthatfleetsdonotuseconnectivityanddataanalyticstodevelopbusinessmodelsandim-

provethecustomerexperience,butratherforTCOoptimi-zation.Withinmobilitytransformation,theanalysisprovesthatsharingmodelshavealowmarginpotentialand,

hence,arelikelytocomplementafleet’sproductportfolio.

Exhibit2|Mythsinthefleetaftermarketuntil2030

IndustryMyths

√MarketFacts

Fleetshare~15%forPCsand~41%forLCVsand~69%forMHDTsand79%fortrailersin2030

FleetsareopentocollaboratewiththeIAM,drivenbydigitalizationandspend

FleetshareforPCsandLCVswillbewell

above50%andforMHDTsandtrailersabove90%in2030

Fleetsstronglyfocusonusingtheauthorizedchannel

Fleetsarecost-drivenandarepreoccupiedwiththetransitiontoEV;sustainabilityifhelpingTCO

Remanufacturedpartsaremainlydemandedtoreducespendonrepaircosts

Fleetsdemandsustainabilityofpartsandinprocessstepsalongthevaluechain

Growingsustainabilityrequirementswilldrivestronggrowthofremanufacturedparts

Fleetsusetheirownfleetmanagementtools

Althoughfleetswantstandardization,

independencefromOEMsandtheshifttoEVareprioritized

MainmotivationtouseconnectivitysolutionsisTCOoptimization

FleetswantfleetmanagementsolutionsprovidedbywholesalersandTier-1’s

Fleetswantstandardizedsolutionstoreducecomplexity

Datatransparencyandconnectivityisusedtodevelopnewbusinessmodelsandraise

customersatisfaction

Sharingmodelshavealowmarginpotential

Sharingmodelsarethefutureoffleetproviders

Sources:MarketParticipantInterviews;Marketreports;BCGCaseExperience;BCGanalysis

BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP+CLEPA7

TheFleetBusinessisGrowingintheEuropeanAftermarket

W

ithinthefiveEuropeancountriesstudied,thetotal

vehicleparcisslowlygrowingacrossallfour

vehicletypes(seeExhibit3).Thefleetshare

withinthesevehicleparcsisgainingmomentum,outgrow-ingthetotalmarket.InthePCsegment,thefleetparcis

forecasttoincreaseby9.2millionvehiclesby2030.As

such,thePCfleetparcwillreach22.4millionvehiclesby

2030,constitutingafleetshareof15%.Coredriversofthisgrowtharefewerpersonalmilesdrivenincombination

withincreaseddemandforsharingmodels.Alternativemo-bilitysolutionsareparticularlyfavorableduetothehigh-in-terest-rateandhigh-inflationenvironment.Similarly,the

LCVparcsizeisexpectedtoincreaseby1.8millionvehi-

cles,resultinginafleetparcof8.1millionLCVsinthefiveselectedEuropeancountries.CoredriversofLCVfleet

growthincludeincreasedlast-miledelivery,ase-commerceanddeliveryoptionscontinuetogrow.Atthesametime,

thefleetshareforMHDTsisforecasttoreach69%in2030,whilethetotalMHDTparcisconsiderablysmallerthanforPCs.ThisassumesthatthenumberofMHDTswillriseby0.8million,totaling2.9millionfleetMHDTsby2030.ThefleetsharefortrailersisevenhigherthanforMHDTs,withanexpectedshareof79%in2030.Toreachthisshare,thefleettrailerparcisanticipatedtogrowto1.5milliontrail-ersby2030.TheacceleratingMHDTandtrailerfleetparcsharesarearesultofincreasinge-commerceandcost

pressuresinthetransportmarket.

Bothinthetotalparcaswellasthefleetparc,BEVadop-tionandtheageofvehicleswillbecriticalfactors.WithinthePCfleetparc,62%ofvehicleswillbeBEVin2030,

comparedwith16%inthetotalPCparc.TheNordicsandWesternEuropeleadinBEVadoption.Intermsofage,PCfleetsaresignificantlyyoungerthanthetotalparc,withan

Exhibit3

Europeanfleetparcsizeacrossvehicletypesuntil2030

Fleetparcsize,splitbyvehicletype(Munits)

2021

2030

CAGR

2021–2030

9%

15%

+6.0%

147.6

152.9

+0.4%

59%

69%

4.2

41%

35%

19.8

79%

69%

2.0

Fleet+xx%=CAGRfleetparc+xx%=CAGRtotalparc

Source:IHSdata;CLEARdata;KBAdata;UKvehicleregistrationdata;MarketParticipantInterviews;Marketreports;BCGanalysis

anticipatedaverageof2.9yearsversus11.1yearsin2030,respectively.IntheLCVsegment,asimilarbutless-strongtrendcanbeobserved.As22%ofLCVfleetvehiclesare

expectedtobeBEVs,thiswillresembleachallengeforanaftermarketthatstillneedstobecomeBEVready.Aslight-lyagingLCVfleetparcwillhavefavorableeffectsonthe

aftermarket.By2030,theLCVfleetisforecasttohaveanaverageageof4.9years;however,onaverage,thisisstillsignificantlyyoungerthanthetotalLCVparcageof10.1years.IntheMHDTfleet,BEVadoptionwillonlystarttopickupbytheendofthedecade,reaching11%BEVand

4%FCEVin2030.Duetothehighfleetshare,thesecharac-teristicsdonotstronglydivertfromthetotalMHDTparc,

whereBEVadoptionisexpectedtobe9%andtheFCEV

share3%in2030.BoththetotalMHDTfleetandthe

MHDTparcareaging,reachinganaverageageof7.8yearsand10.1yearsby2030,respectively.SimilartoMHDTs,ahightrailerfleetshareresultsinasimilarageforfleets

comparedwiththeparc,amountingto10.7yearsversus

11.1years.Overall,boththehighBEVadoptioninfleetsaswellastheirlowervehicleagewillbeachallengeforthe

aftermarket,especiallytheIAM.

3.6

+3.6%

+1.8%

17.8

+2.8%

+1.2%

+2.9%

+1.4%

1.7

8AFTERMARKET2035—THEFLEETIMPERATIVEBOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP+CLEPA9

Exhibit4|Europeanfleetaftermarketsizeacrossvehicletypesuntil2030

FleetIAMaftermarketsize,splitbyvehicletype(€B)

20212030

CAGR

2021–2030

1.51.7

+2.0%

4.76.7

+4.1%

8.1

11.9

+3.6%

19.3

29.0

+4.4%

3.8

0.98

2.5

3.3

5.8

1.3

3.48

5.2

+3.4%

+3.4%

+2.9%

+5.1%

IAM+xx%=CAGRIAMaftermarket+xx%=CAGRtotalaftermarket

Note:Numbersrefertoretaillevel(partsonly,excl.labor)

Source:IHSdata;CLEARdata;KBAdata;UKvehicleregistrationdata;MarketParticipantInterviews;Marketreports;BCGanalysis

Cumulatively,thegrowingfleetparc,whichhassubstantial-lydifferentcharacteristicsfromthetotalaftermarket,is

expectedtoreachanaftermarketvalueof~€45billionin2030,whereastheIAMgenerates~€20billion(seeExhibit4).ThiscorrespondstoaCAGRof4.5%inthefleetafter-marketuntil2030,comparedwith1.7%inthetotalafter-market.Specifically,thePCfleetaftermarketvalueis

projectedtobe€6.7billionin2030,with€3.3billioninR&Mspend.TheIAMisexpectedtocapture26%ofthismarketin2030,avalueof€1.8billion.DespiteaslightlyhigheraveragespendforLCVs,thesmallerfleetsizewill

resultinasomewhatlowerfleetaftermarketsizeof€3.4

billionin2030,including€2.0billioninR&M.TheIAMis

forecastedtocoverashareof29%,slightlyhigherthanin

thePCsegment.Duetomorecostlyrepa