2025年旅行與旅游的未來：擁抱可持續(xù)與包容性增長報告（英文版）-世界經(jīng)濟論壇

IncollaborationwithKEARNEY

FutureofTravelandTourism:

EmbracingSustainableandInclusiveGrowth

BRIEFINGPAPER

JANUARY2025

Images:Unsplash

Contents

Introduction3

1Keystakeholdersandtheirevolvingroleinshapingtravelandtourism4

2Emergingopportunitiesintheevolvingtravelandtourismlandscape7

3Navigatingchallenges:Turningobstaclesintoopportunities10

4Visionforthefuture:Acalltoaction13

Contributors14

Endnotes15

Disclaimer

Thisdocumentispublishedbythe

WorldEconomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.

Thefindings,interpretationsand

conclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedand

endorsedbytheWorldEconomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarily

representtheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,

Partnersorotherstakeholders.

?2025WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformation

storageandretrievalsystem.

FutureofTravelandTourism:EmbracingSustainableandInclusiveGrowth2

January2025

FIGURE1

FutureofTravelandTourism:EmbracingSustainableandInclusiveGrowth

Introduction

Thetravelandtourism(T&T)sectorstandsata

pivotalmoment,poisedfortransformativegrowthandinnovation.TheCOVID-19pandemiccausedunprecedentedconsequences,leadingtoan

estimateddropofover70%ininternationaltouristarrivals;1andaglobaldropofover50%intotal

travelspendequivalenttoover$3trillion.2However,ithasalsopresentedauniqueopportunityfor

reimaginingandreshapingthesector.Moving

forward,asthesectorrecoversandexpectsfurtheracceleration,withanestimatedannualgrowthin

spendingof7%inthenextdecade,itsresilienceandadaptabilityhavecometotheforefront,

re-positioningitasakeydriverofglobalsocio-

economicgrowth,environmentalstewardshipandsustainabledevelopment.

Globaltravelandtourismspending(inbilliondollars,2010-2034e1)

7Keyinsights

ThesignificanceofT&Ttotheglobaleconomycannotbeoverstated.Priortothepandemic,thesectoraccountedfor10.4%ofglobalgross

domesticproduct(GDP)and10%ofjobs

worldwide.4BusinesstravelplaysanimportantrolewithintheT&Tsector,directlycontributingover$1.4trillion5inGDPandservingasabackboneforglobalcommerceandinternationalrelationsasmany

corporationsrelyontravelformarketexpansion,

internalcollaborationandclientengagement.

Beyondthesefigures,thesector’simpactextendstoculturalexchange,environmentalconservation,

personalwell-beingandevensupportduringworldcrises.Asitlookstothefuture,T&T’spotentialto

fosterpositivechangeonaglobalscaleisimmense.

ThisbriefingpaperaimstoexplorehowT&T

cancapitalizeonitstransformativepotential

inarapidlyevolvingworld.Byexaminingthe

rolesofkeystakeholders,emergingopportunitiesandinnovativesolutions,itaimstoinspirea

collectivevisionandfosterdialoguetoshapethefutureofthesector.Theultimategoalistocreateasectorthatnotonlyrecoversfromrecentsetbacksbutemergesstrongerto

operateeffectivelyintimesof“polycrisis”6

(whennumerouscrisesplayoutatonce,

suchaspandemics,politicalunrest,wars

andenvironmentaldisasters);andisresilientandbetterequippedtogrowsustainablyandfosterwell-beingforall.

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–Totaltravelspending

(domestic+inbound)grewatanannualaverageof5%

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severelyimpactedin2020,whentravelspending

droppedby52%.Italsofullyrecoveredin2023,initially

drivenbydomestictravelspending.

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spendingisexpectedtoacceleratefurtherandisestimatedtogrowatanaverageof7%inthenextdecade(2024-2034).

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201020122014201620182020202220242026e2028e2030e2032e2034e

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Note:Includesdomestic+inboundspending,innominalprices;1estimated

Source:TourismEconomics;GlobalTravelService3

FutureofTravelandTourism:EmbracingSustainableandInclusiveGrowth3

1

FIGURE2

Keystakeholdersandtheirevolvingroleinshapingtraveland

tourism

ThefutureofT&Twillbeshapedbythe

collaborativeeffortsofvariousstakeholders

includingsupportingsectors,eachplayingacrucialroleindrivingpositivechangeandinnovation.

Understandingandembracingtheserolesis

crucialtomaximizethepotentialofthesectorandcreatelastingvalueforeconomies,communities,individualsandtheplanet.

Overviewofthetravelandtourismecosystem

CoreT&Tplayers

–Shape,deliverandexperiencetheT&Tindustry.

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Associationsandorganizations1

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Inuranecopaes

–Notprimarilyfocusedontourism,buthavesigni?cantinteractionswithorimpactsonthetourismsector(i.e.asymbioticrelationship).

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experienceandvalueproposition,andcanfactorinadecisiontovisitadestination.

1.Internationalorganizations,NGOs,industryfocusedorganizations,regionalandnationalorganizations,professionalassociations

2.Hospitalityandaccommodation,transportation,touroperators,travelagentsandsites,tourismmanagementcompanies,socialmedia,foodandbeverages,travelexperienceproviders

*DestinationmanagementorganizationsareakeystakeholderandarecomposedindifferentwaysgloballySource:Kearney

FutureofTravelandTourism:EmbracingSustainableandInclusiveGrowth4

Governments

National,regionalandlocalgovernments

haveauniqueopportunitytosetthestagetopositionthesectorandfacilitatesustainabletourismdevelopmentthroughpoliciesand

initiatives.Properlydesignedincentivescanacceleratetouristattractionandencourageadoptionoftechnologiesandsustainablebusinessmodelsthatcandriveeconomicgrowth.Forexample,SaudiArabia’s

Vision2030hasbeeninstrumentalindiversifyingthecountry’sdependenceonoil,withtourism

registeringa73%growthinthefirstmonthof2024comparedtothesameperiodin2019.7

Similarly,Spainhasimplementedvarioustourismeffortsandincentivesthathavecontributed

toasignificantincreaseintouristarrivalsand

spending.In2023,Spainsawarecord85millioninternationaltouristsreachingover$110billioninspending.8Tourismisalsorecognizedasaforceforgoodintermsofdrivingeconomicgrowth

(e.g.inDubai),9andcontributingtopoverty

alleviation,asinsomeruralregionsofChina,where10%ofpeoplewereliftedoutofpovertybetween2010and2014.10

Governmentscancreateenablingenvironments–bothwithinandbetweeneconomies–throughmodernizedpoliciesandregulationstohelpgrowtradeintravelandtourismservices.Moreover,

governmentsplayacriticalroleinfacilitating

internationalcooperationandstandardization

tobuildamoreresilientandseamlessglobal

T&Tecosystem.Asgovernmentsdeveloptheirtourismstrategies,itisimportanttoembrace

sustainabilityandinclusivityandcreatetherightframeworkstoencourageinnovationthrough

collaborationsbetweentheprivateandpublic

sectors.Atthesametime,fosteringinternationalpartnershipstoaddressglobalchallengescan

supportgreatersustainabilityinthesector.

Privatesector

Private-sectorT&Tactorsareattheforefrontofinnovation.Theyhavetheopportunitytolead

theadoptionofsustainablepracticesandnewtechnologies,suchasAI-poweredpersonalizeditinerariesorcarbon-neutralaccommodations.Bycreatingpersonalizedexperiencesthatcatertoevolvingtravellerpreferenceswhileprioritizingenvironmentalandsocialcommitments,the

sectorcancontributesignificantlytolocalandglobaleconomicdevelopment,strengthenitsvaluepropositionsanddrivefuturegrowth.

Despiteglobalvolatility,thesectorhas

shownresilience.Duringthepastyear,the

BlueStarTravelandVacationIndex(BTOUR)11hasperformedsimilarlytotheDowJoneswithreturnsofover20%,thoughshowinghighervolatility.12

Lookingahead,ifcompaniessuccessfully

implementinnovativeandsustainable

approaches,theymaysignificantlysurpass

currentperformancelevels,benefittingboththesectoranditsshareholders.

Travelandtourismhasalwaysbeen

interconnectedwithadjacentandsupporting

sectors,creatingopportunitiesforcross-sectorcollaborationandinnovation.Fromretailand

entertainmenttofinancialservices,technologyandrealestate,relatedsectorscanplayavitalroleinenhancingthetravelexperienceand

addressingchallengeswhilecreatingsignificantrevenuestreamsfortheirownbusinesses.Forinstance,socialmediaorsearchengineresultsaretheleadingsourcesoftravelinspiration.13

Also,internationaltransactionsrepresentup

toathirdoftotalrevenueforleadingpayment

processingcompanies.Additionally,touristscanbedriversforretailsalesasseeninDubai,whereanestimated25%ofretailsalesaredrivenby

internationalvisitors.14

FutureofTravelandTourism:EmbracingSustainableandInclusiveGrowth5

Businessesacrosssectorsshouldtakeadvantageofcross-sectorcollaborationtocreateseamlessexperiencesorprovidepersonalizedtravel

experiences.Simultaneously,theyshouldseektoincorporateelementsintheirtourismofferingsthatpromotesustainablepractices.

Associationsandorganizations

Associationsandorganizationsincluding

internationalentitiessupportthesectorby

facilitatingglobalorsector-specificdialogue,and

coordinateeffortstoaddresscommonchallenges.Theseorganizationsaretypicallywell-equippedtosetstandardsandguidelinesandensurethatthe

sectorgrowsinawaythatbenefitsallstakeholders.

Destinationmanagementorganizations(DMOs)

playacriticalrolebybridgingthegapbetweenlocalandglobaltourismefforts.Theyactivelypromote

anddevelopdestinations,ensuringalignment

withpre-definedgoalswhileenhancingthevisitorexperience.DMOsoftenserveascatalystsfor

innovation,workingcloselywithpublicandprivatestakeholdersandthelocalcommunitytobuild

competitiveandresilienttourismecosystems.

Collectively,theseorganizationshavethe

opportunityandpowertoshapethesectorgoingforward–theycanfacilitateknowledge-sharingandcapacity-building,andpromoteresearchandinnovationtodriveitstransformation.

Localcommunities

Localcommunitiesaretheheartoftourism

destinations.Sustainablepracticesavoidcreatingnegativeeffectsforthem,andelicittheiractive

participationforcreatingauthenticexperiences.Thereisanopportunitytoempowerlocal

communitiestoshapetourisminlocalareas,andensurebenefitsaremoreequitablydistributed.

Localcommunitiesplayacrucialroletoensurethatuniqueculturaltraditionsandnaturalenvironmentsarepreserved.Forexample,community-based

tourismisanapproachthatenableslocal

communitiestoplayakeyroleinplanningand

deliveringtourismexperiences,whileensuring

thattheyparticipateinthetourismeconomyinanequitablemanner.

Placinglocalcommunitiesandtheirdevelopment

atthecentreoftourismpolicieswillbecriticalforasustainableandinclusivesector.Supportingthemwitheducation,investmentandtechnologycannotonlypreserveculturesandtheenvironment,butcanalsotransformlives.15

Travellers

Thetravellingpublicthemselvesarepowerful

agentsofchangeintheecosystemastheyplayaninfluentialandmultifacetedrole(e.g.as

demanddrivers,promotersandconsumers).

Asconsumerpreferencescontinuetoevolve

towardsmoresustainableandresponsibletraveloptions(86%ofsurveyrespondentsbetween

ages25and34favoureco-friendlyoptionsduringtheirtravel),16travellershavethepowerand

opportunitytocontinuedrivingdemandforeco-friendlypractices.

Theycanalsosupportauthenticcultural

experiencesbymakinginformedchoicesand

engagingwiththerightstakeholders.Thesector

canfacilitatethisdecision-makingbyproviding

accesstorelevantinformationandencouraging

responsibletravelbehaviourthrougheducationandawarenesscampaigns,asmosttravellersshow

flexibilityintheirselectionofactivitiesduringtheirvacationortrips.

FIGURE3

Extenttowhichenvironmentalimpactaffectschoices,byage

Surveyquestion:Towhatextentdidtheimpactontheenvironmentandontheplanetplayaroleintheselectionofdestinationorresort/hotel?

Agegroups

32%43%24%

37%45%18%

36%50%13%

36%

47%

17%

33%

37%

30%

22%

35%

43%

16%

29%

55%

MajorroleSomewhatofaroleNorole

Source:Kearney17

FutureofTravelandTourism:EmbracingSustainableandInclusiveGrowth6

Overall21-2425-3435-4445-5455-6465+

2

Emergingopportunitiesintheevolvingtravelandtourismlandscape

AstheT&Tsectorrecoversandevolves,key

opportunitiesbegintoemergethathavethe

potentialtocontributetoamoresustainablefuture.Byembracingtheseopportunities,stakeholderscandevelopinnovativesolutionsthataddressglobal

challengesanddeliverenhancedvaluetotravellersandlocalcommunities.

Thegrowingawarenessofenvironmentalissuespresentsauniqueopportunity.Environmental

impactisacrucialconsiderationforthreeoutofeveryfourtravellers.18Forinstance,regenerativetourism

approachescanserveascatalystsforenvironmentalconservationbydevelopinginnovativeeco-tourismmodels(e.g.NZMāoriTourism)19whileleveraging

tourismrevenuetosupportconservationinitiatives.Despitecontinuingsustainabilityefforts,theT&T

sectorstillcontributesover8%ofglobalgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsandaccountsfor10%of

globalenergyconsumption.20Equally,themountingproblemofwasteandplasticpollutionmanagementrequiresurgentattention.21

Inaddition,thesectorshouldcontinuetomakestridestowardsprotectingbiodiversityandregenerating

naturalhabitats.Opportunitiesforpartnerships

betweentourismbusinesses,thepublicsector

andconservationorganizationsariseaswaysto

solvethechallenge.Forthis,keyenablerscouldbeleveragingadvancedtechnologiesformonitoring

environmentalimpact,anddevelopingnewor

repurposingexistingtourisminfrastructureand

operatingmodelstoenhancenaturalecosystems(seecasestudy1).Specificallyforurbantourism,integratingnature-positiveprinciplesintocities’designanddevelopmentcanenhancetheurbantourismexperiencewhilecontributingtobiodiversity-rich

environments(e.g.SingaporeChangiAirport).22

CASESTUDY1

CollaborationboostsnumberofmountaingorillasinRwanda

In1981,only245mountaingorillaswereleftinVolcanoesNationalParkinRwanda.

Some25yearslater,thankstoecosystem

collaborationincludingscientists,thelocal

communityandthegovernment,morethan600gorillasliveinthearea.

In2021,gorillatourismgenerated$164millioninpartfromincreasinggorillapermitcoststoattractluxurytravellersandminimizingpressureonthenaturalhabitat.Partofthismoneyhasbeenusedtoprotectgorillasandtheirhabitats,inadditiontolawenforcement.

Localcommunitiesadjacenttotheparkhave

benefittedfromtheseefforts.Thegovernment

inpartnershipwiththeRwandaDevelopment

Boardhasadoptedapolicyunderwhich10%

ofallrevenuegeneratedbythenationalparksisgiventothelocalcommunities.Ithassuccessfullyfundedover700community-basedprojectswithaninvestmentofover$5.5million,whilereducingpoachingandencroachmentinthearea.

Source:FarandWilTravel;23RwandaDevelopmentBoard;24VolcanoesNationalParkRwanda25

FutureofTravelandTourism:EmbracingSustainableandInclusiveGrowth7

Therecentdevelopmentsintechnologies

suchasartificialintelligence(AI)andbigdata

analyticspresentpotentialforcreatingpersonalizedexperiences.Withtheseemergingtechnologies,thesectorcanenhancetravellersatisfaction,improve

operationsanddriveinnovationacrosstheleisure

andbusinesstravellersegments.Usecasesfor

travellersincludeAI-poweredtravelitineraries

(developedbyleadingtechcompaniesoronline

travelcompanies),whichprovidesuggestions

basedonpreferencesorsuggestsustainable

choices;AI-enabledreal-timetranslationisalso

loweringcommunicationbarriersbetweentravellers,sectorworkersandlocalcommunities;andGenAIisbeingleveragedforinspiration(suchassupportingtravellersinselectingdestinationsorchanging

flightdates).Similarly,companiesinthesector

areleveragingAIforpricepredictionandreal-timepersonalizationcapabilities.

Additionally,bigdataandanalyticsaresupportingtourismmanagementanddestinationplanning

(e.g.Salzburg,whichusesmultipledatasources

forvisitorflowanalysis).26Inasimilarway,analyticsandcloud-basedpropertymanagementsystemscontinuetosupporthospitalityplayersinthe

sectortodeliverpersonalizedservicesandto

attractmoretravellers.Finally,face-recognition

technologiescontinuetoincreaseefficiencyacrossthejourney(e.g.atairports).Theseexamples

showcasehowtechnologyisshapingthefutureofthesector.

Thegrowingfocusonhealthandwell-beingforindividualsandcompanies27presents

anopportunityforthesectortodevelopvalue

propositionsthatcatertotravellers’needsandcontinuetobeadriverforwell-beingworldwide.

Asurveyconductedduringthepandemicshowedthat97%ofrespondentsreportedthathaving

atripplannedmadethemhappier.28Moreover,wellnessisbecomingmorepopularasatravelpurposeamongabroaderaudienceandis

expectedtoreach$1.3trillionby2025.29

Thesectorshouldtrytocapitalizeonthesetrendsandcontinuetocreateexperiencesordesign

innovationsthatadjusttodifferentneedsbeyond

resortsandspas.Similarly,somecompanies

areembracingflexibleworkarrangementsand

blendeditinerariestoboostproductivityand

wellness.Researchandexperiments30haveshownimprovedretentionandemployeesatisfactionwhencompaniesallowemployeestocombineworkandleisureintravel.Destinationsarecapturingthistrendwithmeasuressuchas“digitalnomad”visas,whicharenowavailableinmorethan40countries.

Astravellersincreasinglyseekauthenticand

meaningfulexperiences(75%ofrespondentssaidtheyspendatleasthalftheirtimeexploringoutsideofaccommodations),31thereisanopportunityforthesectortosupportthepreservationofculturalheritage.Creatinguniqueandimmersiveculturalexperiencesthatallowtravellerstoengagewith

localtraditionsandimplementingpracticesthatsupportthecontinuationoftraditionalmethodswillhelppreserveintangibleculturalheritage.

Forexample,partnershipsbetweentourism

businessesandculturalinstitutionsarerapidlybecomingacriticalassetforthesector(see

casestudy2).Moreover,innovationinheritagesitesasseeninregionsinChina(e.g.MountDanxia)hasbeenacatalysttoattractmore

tourists,engagethelocalcommunityandtransformtourisminthedestination.32

FutureofTravelandTourism:EmbracingSustainableandInclusiveGrowth8

CASESTUDY2

Diriyah,thecityofearth

LocatedontheoutskirtsofRiyadhinSaudiArabia,Diriyahisthebirthplaceofthekingdomandthe

ancestralhomeoftheAlSaudroyalfamily.Foundedinthe15thcentury,At-TuraifDistrictinad-Dir’iyah

bearswitnesstotheNajdiarchitecturalstyle,whichisspecifictothecentreoftheArabianpeninsula.

DiriyahGateDevelopmentAuthorityhasbeen

mandatedtopreserveDiriyah’srichhistoryandheritage,celebrateitscommunityandfostera

deepconnectionwithitsrootsinordertoensuresustainableurbandevelopmentandresponsiblelandmanagement.

The14squarekilometreprojectisanundertakinginthehotelandhospitalityspaceanditsdevelopmentisunderwaywiththegoalofattracting50million

visitsayear.Itisessentiallybuildinganewcitythatwillbehometo100,000residents,40newhotels,a20,000-seatermultipurposearena,anoperahouse,ninemuseums,officespaces,1,000shopsand

world-classeateries.

SincetheopeningoftheUNESCOWorldHeritageSiteandthenearbyBujairiTerraceinDecember

2022,therehavebeenover2millionvisits,givingvisitorsthechancetoexploreandwalkthesamestreetsastheAlSaudfamilyandothersover300yearsago.

Source:DiriyahGateDevelopmentAuthority;33UNESCO34

Finally,theT&Tsectorhasauniqueopportunitytopromotesocialandeconomicinclusionbydevelopingtourismofferingsthatareavailable

andaccessibletoall.Byfocusingoncreating

experiencesthatcatertodiverseneeds,the

sectorcantapintonewmarketsandcontributetoamoreequitablesociety.Keyopportunitiesininclusivetourismincludecreatingemployment

andentrepreneurshipopportunitiesfor

localcommunitiesormarginalizedgroupswithinthesectoranddesigningtravel

experiencesthatcelebratediversityandpromoteculturalunderstanding.Successfullylaunched

initiativeshavebeenshowntoincreaselocalincomeindestinationsbyover$5,500percapitaperannum.35

FutureofTravelandTourism:EmbracingSustainableandInclusiveGrowth9

3

Navigatingchallenges:Turningobstaclesintoopportunities

Therearealsochallengespertainingtodestinationmanagementandmanagingtouristnumbers,skillgaps,cybersecurityanddataprivacy,geopoliticalandeconomicinstability,increasedimpactof

climatechange,visaprocesses,innovationin

virtualandhybridexperiences,andglobalhealthcrises.However,thesecanbeleveragedfor

innovationandpositivechange.Addressing

thesechallengescanhelptheindustryemergestronger,andbetterequippedtobeadriverforsustainablegrowthofcompanies,destinationsandcommunities.

Thechallengeofmanagingtouristsincertain

locations(e.g.BarcelonaandVenice)affectedbytourismrelatedexcesses–i.e.“touristification”,overcrowdingandovertourism–presentan

opportunitytodevelopalternativetourismmodels

andapproachessuchasdispersingtouriststo

outsidehotspotsandpromotinglesser-known

destinations,whichiscommonlyseenasameansofdealingwithhighnumberoftourists.However,

whethersufficientinterestisstimulatedtogooffthebeatentrackistobeseenandcouldsimplyresultintheproblemshiftingelsewhere.

Demarketingofdestinationshasbeenapplied

withvaryingdegreesofsuccess.Introducingentryfeestopopularlocationsandapplyingtoolssuchasdynamicpricingandmechanismsforvisitor

management(seecasestudy3)havehelped

distributetouristflowsacrosstimeandspace.Thesolutionstodealingadequatelywiththeeffectsofalargenumberoftouristsarelikelytobemany

andvaried,andshouldbetailoredbydestinationthroughmultistakeholdercollaboration.36

CASESTUDY3

MachuPicchutourismmanagement

MachuPicchuinPeruisoneoftheNew7

WondersoftheWorldandaUNESCOWorld

HeritageSitesince1983.However,in2008theWorldMonumentsFundplacedthesiteonitslistofmostendangeredsites.

Eversince,measureshavebeenintroduced

toensurethesitecanbeenjoyedbyfuture

generations.Theseincludetimedentries,lateentrytolerance,designatedcircuits,andacaponthe

numberofvisitorsperday.

Theseeffortshavebeenmainlyfocusedon

preservingculturalheritageandmanagingtourismflows,buthavebroughtotherbenefits:

–MachuPicchuhasbecomekeytoPeru’s

economy,creatingcountlessjobsandbringinganestimated$40millionperyearinfeesalone.

–Travellersaremoreawareandenthusiastictosupportlocalprojectstoimproveaccesstoeducation,healthcare,etc.

–Additionalresourcesareavailabletoprotect

Source:BigThink;37ResponsibleTravel;38SkyNews;39UNESCO

theover30,000hectaresofforestclosetothehistoricsanctuary.

FutureofTravelandTourism:EmbracingSustainableandInclusiveGrowth10

Thepandemiccausedmorethan60million