GEP：2024氫能經(jīng)濟的崛起報告（英文版）

TheRiseoftheHydrogenEconomy

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Overthepastthreedecades,hydrogenhasmadeslowbutsteadystridestowardbecomingafeasiblealternativetotraditionalfuel.Itsrelevanceand

demandhavegrownsubstantially,fueledbytheneedformorecleanenergytomeetambitioussustainabilitytargets.

Whilethepushforeco-friendlyenergyhasbeena

catalystforalternativefuels,theRussia-Ukrainewarhasbeenaneye-openerforglobalenergymarkets1.Theenergycrisisresultingfromdependenceon

Russianoilandnaturalgashasbeenastarkreminderoftheneedtodecreasedependenceonfossilfuels

anddiversifyfuelsandtheirsources.

Hydrogencandiversifytoday’senergymix,withtheadditionaladvantageofhelpingachievesustainabilitygoalsusingblueandgreenhydrogen,whichare

cleanerformsofthefuel.

In2022,theglobaldemandforhydrogenreached

anewhighof113milliontons,accountingfor2.8%offinalglobalenergyconsumption2.Muchofthe

increaseindemandcamefromtraditionalhydrogenusers,suchaspetroleumrefiningandchemical

production.

THERISEOFTHEHYDROGENECONOMY:ANOPPORTUNITYFOROIL&GASCOMPANIES

However,2022alsosawanunprecedentedmomentumofhydrogenconsumptioninthetransportationindustry,withdemandtotaling48thousandtons,a60%increaseover20212.Themajorityofthishydrogenwasusedbytrucksandbuses.Thenumberofheavy-dutyhydrogentruckspluggedintothelogisticsframeworkincreased

sixfoldin2022comparedto2021.

Ashydrogenmakesfurtherheadwayintotheenergyandtransportationecosystem,theneedtobolsteritsentire

supplychainincreases—fromtheproductionofblueorgreenhydrogentotransmissionacrosscontinents,utilizationasafuelandreusablestorage.Oilandgascompaniesareinpolepositiontodrivethecreationofthehydrogeneconomyandsupplychainofthefuture:

Oilandgascompaniesregularlyproducehydrogen

asaby-productofthefrackingprocess,duringwhich

carbondioxideisalsogeneratedandexpelledintothe

atmosphere.Thisby-productisknownasgrayhydrogen.

Carboncaptureandutilizationsystems(CCUSs)will

helpremovemuchofthecarbondioxidefromthe

productionprocesstoproducecleaner“blue”hydrogen.DevelopingandimplementingsuchCCUSsolutionsinexistingoilplantsisanecessarystepforoilcompaniestoproducecleanhydrogenforthefuture.

GrayHydrogenBlueHydrogenGreenHydrogen

NaturalGas

CO2

Hydrogen

UndergroundStorage

NaturalGas

Hydrogen

O2

Green

Electricity

Water

Hydrogen

CO2

Fig.1:TheColorsofHydrogen

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KeybenefitsofusingCCUStoproducebluehydrogen:

?Reducedgreenhousegasemissions:Blue

hydrogenhasasignificantlylowercarbonfootprintthantraditionalgrayhydrogen2.

?Affordableandabundantfeedstock:Naturalgasisarelativelyabundantandaffordable

fossilfuelthatcanproducebluehydrogenatacompetitivecost.

?Existinginfrastructure:CCUStechnology

canbeintegratedwithexistingsteammethanereformingplants,whichcanreducethecostofdeployingbluehydrogenproduction.

Whenitcomestogreenhydrogen—thecleanest

methodofhydrogenproduction—thetechnological

prowessandimpendingtransitiontoenergyprovidersmakeoilcompanieswell-suitedtodevelopelectrolyzerplantstoproducegreenhydrogenfromwater.

TheCostofHydrogenUpgrades

Asthedemandforsustainablefuelincreases,oilandgascompaniesmustinvestinequipmentupgrades.

THERISEOFTHEHYDROGENECONOMY:ANOPPORTUNITYFOROIL&GASCOMPANIES

ForsourcingprofessionalsinCCUSprojects,absorbers,strippers,heatexchangersandcompressorswouldbethebig-ticketCAPEXitemsinthenearfuture—heat

exchangersbeingthemostcapital-intensive(~60%)becauseoftheircomplexityandthelargenumber

requiredacrosstheCCUSvaluechain4.

Thepotentialspendingontheaboveequipment

forCCUSprojectsinthe2022-31periodhasbeen

peggedatUSD3.7billion4.Oilandgascompanies

alreadyhaveastrategicbaseofmanufacturersthatsupplyallthisequipmentforuseatsomestageinthecurrentframework.

Forexample,heatexchangersareextensivelyusedincrackingunitsforliquefactionanddistillation.

OilcompaniescanextendexistingrelationshipswithsupplierssuchasAlfaLavaltoreduce

sourcingefforts,accelerateco-developmentofheatexchangersspecifictoCCUSrequirementswith

incumbentsandlowerprocurementcosts.CCUSimplementationpresentsahugeopportunityforperipheralequipmentsuppliers,EPCcompanies,pipelinemanufacturers,etc.Oilcompaniescan

alsoexplorestrategicpartnershipswithselected

advancedincumbentsforturnkeyprojects,

providingfurtherbenefitsofspendconsolidationandfasterdeployment.

GREENHYDROGEN

WATER

△

H2

H2

H2

HYDROGENSTORAGE

PV

WIND

BATTERY

PIPELINEANDCOMPRESSION

ELECTROLYZER

OXYGEN

BLUEHYDROGEN

H2

CO2

REFORMER

PIPELINEANDCOMPRESSION

CH4

CCUS

Fig.2:Green&BlueHydrogenProduction9

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800

700

USDMillion

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031

CompressorsHeatExchangersStrippersAbsorbers

Note:Estimatesarebasedonvisibleprojects.

Source:S&PGlobal

Fig.4:CCUSSpendingbyEquipmentType3

AcasestudyinCCUSimplementation

Today,about35commercialfacilitiesworldwideapplyCCUStoindustrialprocesses,fueltransformationandpowergeneration,withatotalannualcapturecapacityofalmost45MtCO2.MomentuminCCUSadoption

hasgrownsubstantiallyinrecentyears,witharound300projectsinvariousstagesofdevelopmentacrosstheCCUSvaluechain5.

TheQuestCarbonCaptureandStorage(CCS)

Project,developedbyShellaspartoftheAthabascaOilSandsProject(AOSP)inAlberta,Canada,istheworld’sfirstcommercial-scaleCCSprojectforanoilsandsoperation6.

TheQuestCCSprojectcaptures,transportsandstoresundergroundmorethanonemilliontonsofCO2fromShell’sScotfordUpgradernearFort

Saskatchewan,whichwasopenedin2003toprocess

bitumenfromMuskegRiverandJackpineoilsandsminesofAOSP,ajointventureofShell(60%),

Chevron(20%)andMarathonOil(20%)6.

AstheQuestCCS’sdesigner,builderandoperator,ShellstartedconstructionontheUSD$1.35billionprojectinSeptember2012.TheCCSprojectbeganoperationsinNovember2015.Itcutsone-thirdof

directCO2emissionsfromtheScotfordUpgrader,whichisequivalenttotaking250,000carsofftheroadannually6.

AmericanmultinationalengineeringandconstructionfirmFluorwasresponsiblefortheEPCservicesforthecaptureportionoftheQuestCCSproject5.To

minimizecapitalcostsandreducedisruptionstotheexistingoperatingfacility,Fluorimplementedamodularexecutionstrategyoffabricating

theinterlockingmodulesoffsiteanddeliveringthemtothesiteforrapidinstallation.Fluor’s

designapproach,whichcompressesthespace

requirementsofatypicalplant,reducesmaterial

quantitiesandtheconstructionlaborhoursrequiredinthefield6.

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ShellplanstoexpandtheQuestCCSprojectto

captureandstoremoreCO2.In2022,ShellannouncedplanstobuildanewCCSprojectcalledPolarisatits

Scotfordrefineryandchemicalsplant.ThePolaris

projectisexpectedtohaveacapturecapacityof

approximately3milliontonnesofCO2peryear7.ShellisalsoworkingtodevelopnewCCStechnologiesthataremoreefficientandcost-effective.

ThecompanyisalsoworkingtopromotetheadoptionofCCStechnologybyotheroilandgascompaniesand

THERISEOFTHEHYDROGENECONOMY:ANOPPORTUNITYFOROIL&GASCOMPANIES

bygovernments.TheQuestCCSprojectisashining

exampleofhowtheoilandgasindustrycanworkto

reduceitsenvironmentalimpact.Theprojectishelpingtopavethewayforamoresustainablefutureforthe

energysector.

SupplychainconsultingfirmslikeGEPhavelong-

standingexpertiseinidentifyingandleveraging

procurementsynergiesintheenergysector,makingthempotentialstrategicpartnersforoilandgas

companiesinthetransitiontocleanenergy.

Collaboration

Description

口nBASF

?Shellisexploringthepossibillityofacarboncaptureandstorage(CCS)hubandbiofuelsplantatitspetrochemicalcomplexinSingaporefollowingtheSingaporeangovernment’stargetofcapturing2millionTPAofCO2fromtheenergyandchemicalssector.

?ShellandBASFarecollaborationonacarboncapturesolution,andareworkingtogethertoevaluate,de-risk,anddeployBASF’sSorbeadAdsorptionTechnologyforpre-and

post-combustionCarbonCaptureandStorage(CCS)applications.

?ExxonMobilislookingtobuildcarbondioxide(CO2)capturehubsinsomeofSoutheastAsia’sheavyindustrialareassuchasSingaporeandconnectingthemtostoragesiteselsewhereintheregion.

?IthasalsoannouncedaproposaltoestablishaUSD$100billionpublic-privateCCSproject,whichcouldstoreupto50millionmetrictonnesofCO2by2030.

?ExxonMobilhasalsopartneredwithPertaminatodevelopCCUSinSoutheastAsia.

?WithExxonMobil,Pertaminaplanstocapturecarbonbeforestoringitindepleted

reservoirsownedbyPertamina.Theworkingrelationshipwillinvolvethecompaniessharingtechnicalsubsurfacedatainadditiontoreviewingthereuseofexisting

infrastructurefortransportation.

?SaudiAramcohassignedfiveagreementswithFrenchcompaniesintheareasofcarboncapturetechnology,artificialintelligenceandlocalmanufacturing.

Table1:KeyO&GCCUSCollaborations8

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LeveragingExisting

InfrastructureCanEaseDistributionChallenges

Mosthydrogenusedworldwidetodayisproduced

atorclosetowhereitisutilized—typicallyatlarge

industrialsites.Theinfrastructureneededtodistribute

hydrogentothenationwidenetworkoffuelingstationsrequiredforwidespreaduseinfuel-cellelectricvehicles

stillneedstobedeveloped.Theinitialrolloutfor

vehiclesandstationsfocusesonbuildingoutthesedistributionnetworks.

Hydrogenisdistributedthroughthreemethods:pipelines,

high-pressuretubetrailersandliquifiedhydrogen

tankers9.Creatingtheinfrastructuretodistributeand

deliverhydrogentohubsandthousandsoffuture

individualfuelstationspresentsmanychallenges.

Hydrogenhaslessenergyperunitvolumethanany

otherfuel,makingitmoreexpensivetotransport,store,anddelivertoenduserspergallonofgasoline.

Buildinganewhydrogenpipelinenetworkrequires

highinitialcapitalcosts,andthepropertiesofhydrogenpresentuniquechallengesinpipelinematerialsand

compressordesign.

Leveragingexistingnaturalgasinfrastructurewould

avoidthesignificantcapitalcostsofdevelopinganew

transmissionanddistributioninfrastructure.Atechnical

concernisthehydrogen-embrittlementofweldsused

inthefabricationofpipelinenetwork.Toovercomethischallenge,oilandgascompaniescanadapttheexistingpipelinetodeliverablendofhydrogenandnaturalgas.

Apotentialalternativesolutionistousefiber-reinforced

polymer(FRP)pipelinesinsteadofsteelpipesfor

distribution—anaddedbenefitbeinga20%reductionininstallationcostscomparedtoconventionalpipelines.TheglobalmarketforFRPisvaluedatUSD53billionin2020andisexpectedtogrowataCAGRof6.4%10.

OilcompaniescangetaheadbyforgingcontractsforsupplyingkeypolymerrawmaterialtoleadingFRPmanufacturerssuchasOwenCorning,SaintGobain,etc.,andbuyingbackFRPpipelinesat

muchlowercosts.

Transmissionofhydrogenoverlongdistancesin

tankerspresentsitschallenges—pressurizationofhydrogengasintoliquidwouldconsumeenormousamountsofpressurizationenergyandrequire

speciallydesignedcompressors.Themaintenanceofsub-criticaltemperaturerequirescryogenic

refrigeratingequipment.

Thesesystemswouldformthebiggestcost

componentsforhydrogenlong-distancedistributionmarketplayers.Oilandgasfirmscanleverage

existingpartnershipswithleadersinthecompressorandrefrigerationspace,suchasSiemensand

GeneralElectric,toco-developthetechnologyandinfrastructurerequiredtobuildahydrogen-specificlogisticsnetwork.

Hydrogenneedstobestoredtobuildinventoryto

meetsupply-demandfluctuations.Currently,themostviableoptionisundergroundstorageindepleted

naturalgasfields,aquifers,repurposedsaltcaverns,orlinedhard-rockcaverns.Oilandgascompanies

canpotentiallystorehydrogenintheirdepleted

reservoirs.Itoffersthepotentialforalow-costenergystoragesolutionthatusesexistinginfrastructure.

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Conclusion

Carboncapturecanpavethewayfortheshort-termproductionofcleanhydrogen.Oilandgascompaniesmustinvesttodayindevelopingcost-effectiveand

efficientCCUStechnologieswhileleveraginglong-

standingrelationshipswithequipmentmanufacturers,EPCfirms,etc.

TheCCUSfacilitiescanbeinstalledinhydrogen-

producingfieldsandacrossallcompatiblefuel

generationcentersofanoilcompany,drivingfurthercostbenefitsandreducingcarbonfootprint.In

thelongterm,oilandgascompaniescanexplorealternativehydrogenproductionmethodsvia

electrolysisofwatertoyieldgreenhydrogen.By

embracinghydrogen,oilandgascompaniescanplayasignificantroleintheenergytransition,diversify

theiroperations,reducetheirenvironmentalimpactandpositionthemselvesforfuturegrowthinthe

evolvingenergylandscape.

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References

1“Russia’sWaronUkraine,”InternationalEnergyAgency,

February2022.Retrieved11July2023from

/

topics/russias-war-on-ukraine

2“GlobalHydrogenReview,”InternationalEnergyAgency,

September2022.Retrieved16October2023from

https://www.

/reports/global-hydrogen-review-2023

3“Thedifferencebetweengreenhydrogenandbluehydrogen,”

Petrofac,August2022.Retrieved11October2023from

https://

/media/stories-and-opinion/the-difference-

between-green-hydrogen-and-blue-hydrogen/

4“HowBigistheCCUSMarketforEquipmentSuppliers?,”SPGlobalCommodity,May2022.Retrieved11July2023from

/commodityinsights/en/ci/research-

analysis/how-big-is-ccus-market-for-equipment-supplier.html

5“CarbonCapture,UtilizationandStorage.”InternationalEnergy

Agency,September2022.Retrieved11July2023from

https://

/reports/carbon-capture-utilisation-and-storage-2

6“QuestCarbonCaptureandStorageProject,Alberta,”

HydrocarbonsTechnology,January2023.Retrieved11July

2023from

/projects/

quest-carbon-capture-and-storage-project-alberta/

7“ShellProposesLarge-ScaleCCSFacilityinAlberta,”Shell

Canada,July2023.Retrieved16October2023from

https://

www.shell.ca/en_ca/media/news-and-media-releases/news-

releases-2021/shell-proposes-large-scale-ccs-facility-in-alberta.

html

8“GEPGURUAnalysis

9“HydrogenProductionandDistribution,”U.S.DepartmentofEnergy,March2015.Retrieved11July2023from

https://afdc.

/fuels/hydrogen_production.html

10“FRPPipeMarketbyType,ManufacturingProcess,and

Application:GlobalOpportunityAnalysisandIndustryForecast2021–2030,”AlliedMarketResearch,February2022.Retrieved11July2023from

/FRP-

pipe-market

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AUTHOR

AyushSisodia

ArnabKumarKhanra

connectwithGEP

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