牛津經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院-重建老特拉福德的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響 THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF REGENERATING OLD TRAFFORD

OXFORD

ECONOMICS

THEECONOMIC

IMPACTOF

REGENERATINGOLDTRAFFORD

ANINDEPENDENTREPORTBYOXFORDECONOMICS

OCTOBER2024

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ECONOMICS

TheEconomicImpactofRegeneratingOldTrafford

TABLEOFCONTENTS

Executivesummary2

1.Introduction5

2.Theimpactofinvestmentandregeneration9

1

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TheEconomicImpactofRegeneratingOldTraffordTheEconomicImpactofRegeneratingOldTrafford

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EXECUTIVESUMMARY

100,000

newseaterstadiumpotentialinvestmentbyManchesterUnitedFootballClubinTrafford.

￡4.18bn

netincreasein GVAcontributionstotheTraffordeconomyby2039.

47,900

estimatedadditionaljobstobefacilitatedinTraffordby2039.

ManchesterUnitedFootballClubisconsideringinvestinginanew100,000-seaterstadiuminTrafford.ThestadiumispartofwiderOldTraffordMasterplanforthearea,whichitselfsitsalongside

aRegenerationMasterplanforTraffordWharfside.Combined,

theyofferauniqueopportunitytodeliverastepchangein

economicperformanceandqualityoflifeforthearea.Atpresent,aTripartitePartnershipcontainingManchesterUnited,Trafford

MetropolitanBoroughCouncil,andtheGreaterManchester

CombinedAuthority(GMCA)isworkingtogethertorealisethisfuturetransformationofTrafford.Toinformdiscussionswithkeystakeholders,OxfordEconomicswascommissionedtoquantifythecombinedeconomicimpactsoftheproposals.

ANINDUSTRIALLOW-DENSITYAREA

TraffordWharfsideandtheareacontainingOldTraffordstadiumandthesiteforapotentialnewstadiumarelargelyindustrial,withaconsiderableamountofcarparkingandderelictland.Despite

recentjobsgrowth,theareahasasectoralstructurecentred

onlessproductiveactivities.TheredevelopmentoftheareaisapriorityforTraffordCouncilanditsTraffordWharfsideMasterplanaimstointensifyanddensifytheareathroughtheprovisionof

officespace,retail,andhospitality,aswellasresidentialunts.

ManchesterUnited’spotentialinvestmentinanewstadiumandthewiderOldTraffordMasterplanfortheareacouldprovide

acatalystforthisregeneration.TheLondon2012Olympicsshowedhowastadium-ledredevelopmentcanhavelastingeconomicandsocialimpacts(eventhoughthiswasinitiallydrivenbypublicinvestment).

THESIZEOFTHEPRIZE

Weestimatethatbothmasterplanswouldprovideanet

increaseof￡4.18billioninGVAcontributionstotheTraffordeconomyandfacilitate47,900additionaljobsby2039,

comparedtotheexistingstadiumandwithoutregeneration.Acrossthenationaleconomy,theneteconomicimpact

amountstoa￡7.32billionGVAcontributiontotheUKeconomyand91,600jobsacrosstheUKworkforce,alongside￡1.38billionintaxrevenues.1

WeestimatethattheManchesterUnitedMasterplanand

TraffordWharfsideMasterplancouldresultintherateof

economicgrowthincreasingfrom1.3%peryearinourbaselineforecastto2.9%peryear,through2023to2039.Inaddition,

successfullydeliveringbothmasterplanswouldbenefitall

sectorsoftheeconomyandgrowthwouldnolongerbereliantonasmallnumberofsectors.

21Ourestimatesaccountforthepotentialtodouble-counttheoff-stadiumspendingofvisitorstotheareaandofnewresidentslivingatTraffordWharfsidewithinthecommercialspacedeliveredbytheMasterplan.

Fig.1:Netadditionalimpactsofanewstadium,OldTraffordMasterplanandtheTraffordWharfsideMasterplan,2039

GVA,￡billion,constant2023pricesJobs,thousand

8

6

4

2

0

5.85

7.32

1.00

4.18

5.01

0.68

0.78

0.57

3.95

4.53

5.56

3.37

TrafordGreaterNorthWestUK

Manchester

100

75

50

25

0

73.5

91.6

12.9

47.9

61.5

9.1

10.5

7.7

45.0

52.8

64.6

37.5

6.9

8.3

10.2

TrafordGreaterNorthWestUK

Manchester

Stadium:on-siteStadium:of-site

StadiumDistrict(fullboundary)

TrafordWharfside

Source:Foster+Partners,ManchesterUnited,TraffordBoroughCouncil,OxfordEconomics.Note:maynotsumduetorounding.

SUPPORTINGHOUSINGPROVISION&IMPROVINGQUALITYOFLIFE

Thepotentialnewstadiumwouldprovideanadditional25,690

seats,aswellashostingmorenon-matchdayevents,suchas

concerts.Weestimatethiscouldresultinanetadditional1.76

millionvisitorstoGMCAandrealtermsgrowthinvisitorspendingof7.1%from2023to2032.

TheTraffordHousingNeedsAssessment2023foundthatover

theperiod2010/11to2022/23,therewasanundersupplyofnew

housingdeliveredeachyearinthecouncilareaandthatthere

isaneedfor1,122newhomestobebuilteachyearupto2039.

Thereisalsoevidenceofnotablyhighhousepricesthathave

affectedhousingaffordability.2Throughplanstodeliverover

17,000additionalhomesovertheregenerationperiod,theStadiumDistrictandTraffordWharfsideMasterplanswillhelpaddresstheselocalissuesandcaterfortheexpectedgrowthinpopulation.

TheregenerationofTraffordWharfsideanddeliveryofa

newstadiumwouldalsohaveprofoundimpactsonthebuilt

environmentthroughthereplacementofalargelyindustrialsitelitteredwithcarparkingandunderusedspaceswithanurban

environmentthathasbeendesignedaroundthequalityoflifeofresidentsandtheneedsofworkersandvisitors.

TRANSPORTINVESTMENT

WeunderstandthereisalsoanopportunitytoupgradetherailwaylineinTrafford.Thiswouldnotonlysupportdeliveryofthenew

stadiumandWharfsideregeneration,butitwouldalsoprovideadditionalopportunitiesforregenerationandgrowthinthearea,GMCA,andtheNorthofEngland.

￡7.32bn

TotalcontributiontotheUKeconomy.

91,600

JobsacrosstheUKeconomy.

￡1.38bn

Intaxrevenues.

2TraffordCouncil,

“TraffordHousingNeedsAssessment(HNA)2023”

,accessed2024.3

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TheEconomicImpactofRegeneratingOldTrafford

1.INTRODUCTION

1.1BACKGROUND

TraffordWharfsideisamostlyindustrialarea,mixedwith

largeout-of-townretailunits,ahotel,andgenerallyrelativelylowvalue-addedactivity.It

wastheworld’sfirstindustrialestate,attractingalarge

manufacturingpresenceintheearly1900swithOldTraffordbeingbuiltin1910.Alongside

theindustrialuses,ithasa

generoussupplyofcarparkingfacilitiesandsomederelict

land.ImmediatelyadjacenttothesouthisOldTraffordstadium,additionalcar

parking,andafreightterminal.

ManchesterUnitedis

consideringseveraloptionsforthedevelopmentoftheirstadiumatOldTrafford.

Assuch,thereisaneedto

understandthenetsocio-

economicbenefitsthatcouldbegeneratedbyapotentialnewstadiumatalocal,

regional,andnationallevel.Thestadiumishowever,justonepartofawiderange

ofdevelopmentworktobeundertakeninthearea.

Consequently,Manchester

United,TraffordMetropolitan

BoroughCouncilandGMCAwishtounderstandthescaleofeconomicbenefitsthat

couldberealisedthroughsuccessfullydeliveringa

potentialnewstadiumandassociatedmasterplan,

alongwiththeTrafford

WharfsideMasterplan.Assuch,ManchesterUnitedhascommissionedOxfordEconomicstoquantifythecombinedsocio-economicimpacts.

Fig.2.MapofDraftTraffordWharfsideMasterplan

Landuse

MixeduseresidentialCommercial

School

Residential

Mobilityhub

PublicOpenSpace

Tra代ordCouncil

5

M

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Theeconomicimpactmodelutilisesaninput-output

frameworktoquantifythe

economicbenefitsacross

Trafford,GreaterManchester,theNorthWest,andtheUK.Theinput-outputframeworkallowsustoestimatethe

indirectandinducedimpactsthatarelikelytoflowfrom

agivenlevelofinvestmentoreconomicactivity.?An

input-outputtableprovidesinformationonhowsectorspurchasefromoneanother,andhowhouseholdsspend

theirincome.Weuseinput-outputtablespublishedbytheONSandestimatethelikelyspendingeffectsto

occuracrossthevariouseconomiesbasedontheirrelativesizeandsectoralcomposition.?

Fig.3:Illustrationofthechannelsofeconomicimpact

DIRECTIMPACT

Sta仟areemployedandGDPis

generatedacrossTra仟ordWharfside.

BusinessinTra仟ordWharfsidespendmoneywithsuppliers,whoemploy

sta仟,generateGDPanduseothersuppliersinturn.

INDUCEDIMPACT

Employees(includingofthesuppliers)

spendtheirwagesinthewidereconomy,generatingmoreGDP,jobsandtaxrevenues.

Addedtogether,thesethreee仟ects—direct,indirect,induced—comprisethetotal

economicimpactofthecompanyorsector.

Source:OxfordEconomics

TheEconomicImpactofRegeneratingOldTraffordTheEconomicImpactofRegeneratingOldTrafford

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1.2OUTLINEOFPLANS

Atthetimeofwriting,

ManchesterUnitedis

consideringthepotential

todelivera100,000-seater

stadium.Forthepurposesofthisstudy,itisassumedthatanewstadiumwouldbefullyoperationalin2032.

TheTraffordWharfside

RegenerationMasterplan

containsdetailsoffuture

housingdevelopmentsand

commercialspace.Whileit

providesdetailedinformationonthehousingunitstobe

delivered(andtheassociatedpopulationimpacts),itislessspecificonthecommercial

space.Althoughthereare

broadassumptionsonwhichbuildingswillberetained,plotsizes,commercialbuilding

footprints,andbuilding

height,theMasterplanis

lessprescribedonhowthe

buildingswillbedeveloped

andused.Nevertheless,for

thepurposesofthisstudywehaveusedTraffordCouncil’sworkingassumptionsonthecommercialspace.

1.3ECONOMICIMPACTANALYSIS

Theeconomicfootprintoftheproposeddevelopmentisquantifiedthroughseveralheadlinemetricsincluding:

?Grossvalueadded

(GVA)contribution

toGDPquantifiesthe

potentialeconomicvalueassociatedwitheconomicactivitygeneratedbytheMasterplans.3

?Employmentsupportedthroughtheoperationalphase.

?Thefiscalimpactofthe

proposeddevelopmentbyconsideringhowadditionaleconomicactivitymay

generateadditionaltaxrevenues.

Thepotentialeconomic

impactsdetailedinthis

reportdrawonastandardassessmentframeworkthatquantifiesthepotential

economicfootprintofthestadiumandMasterplan

developmentsacrossthreechannels(seeFig.3):

?Directimpact:relates

totheactivitiesdirectlygeneratedtosupporttheoperationsofthenew

stadiumandmasterplans;

?Indirectimpact:capturestheeconomicactivityandemploymentwithinthe

supplychainsthatsupporttheseactivities,through

theprocurementofgoodsandservicesfromthird

partysuppliers;and

?Inducedimpact:comprisesthewidereconomic

benefitsthatarisewhenworkersemployedatthestadiumandMasterplandevelopmentsaswellasthecompaniesintheir

supplychainspendtheirearnings.

Atthetimeofwritingthe

TraffordWharfsideMasterplandoesnothaveconstruction

costestimates.Wethereforeprovideanestimateofitsneteconomicbenefitoncefullydelivered.WedonothaveatimelinefortheregenerationMasterplan,buttoaidour

understandingofthescaleoftheopportunityweassumeitwillbefullydeliveredwithin15-years(i.e.,by2039).

63Grossvalueadded(GVA)measuresthecontributiontotheeconomyofeachindividualproducer,industry,orsector.Grossdomesticproduct(GDP),theheadlineindicatorofeconomicoutputatanationallevel,isequaltoGVAplustaxesminussubsidies.Atanindividualfirmlevel,GVAcomprisestheoperationssurplus(profit),compositionofemployees(grosswages,plusemployertaxandsocialsecuritycontributions),andtaxesminussubsidiesonproduction.

￡

INDIRECTIMPACT

￡

￡

TOTAL

IMPACT

￡￡

4Aninput-outputmodelusesamatrixrepresentationofanation’sinterconnectedeconomytocalculatetheeffectofchangesbyconsumers,by7anindustry,orbyothers,onotherindustriesandthereforeontheeconomyasawhole.

5Allvaluespresentedinthisreportareinconstant2023prices,unlessotherwisestated.Weconsideraconstantpricebasetocompareeconomicvariablesovertime,adjustingforchangesinprices(inflation)overtime.Thisensuresthatwecancomparevariablesonalike-for-likebasis.

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TheEconomicImpactofRegeneratingOldTrafford

2.THEIMPACTOFINVESTMENTANDREGENERATION

2.1ANINDUSTRIALAND

LOW-DENSITYAREAFACINGACHALLENGINGOUTLOOK

AnanalysisofONS

employmentdataforthe

TraffordWharfsideMasterplansite,?whichincludesmost

oftheMasterplanarea(OldTraffordisexcluded),showsthatitssectoralcompositiongenerallyincludeslower

value-addedactivity.Owingtoitsindustrialcharacter,

bothwholesale&retailtradeandtransportation&storage

arebothdisproportionatelyprevalentacrossthe

Masterplansite.

Businessservicesectorshavebeenakeydriverofrecent

employmentgrowthacrosstheTraffordandGreater

Manchestereconomies.

Butwhileovertwo-fifthsof

existingemploymentatthe

TraffordWharfsideMasterplansiteisinthisformofactivity,itisdominatedbycomparativelyless-productiveadministrative

&supportservices—the

second-leastproductivesectoracrossGreaterManchester

behindonlyaccommodation&foodservices.TheTraffordWharfsideMasterplanarea

lacksthehighgradeand

well-connectedofficespacerequiredtoattractactivityinrelativelyhighervalue-addedbusinessservicesectors.

Fig.4:Employmentbysector:TraffordWharfsidevsTraffordaverage,2022

AgricultureMining&quarryingManufacturing

Utilities Watersupply ConstructionWholesale&retailtrade

Transportation&storageAccommodation&foodservices Information&communicationFinancial&insurance

RealestateProfessional,scienti?c&technicalAdministrative&supportservices

Publicadministration&defenceEducation

Humanhealth&socialworkArts,entertainment&recreationOtherserviceactivities

051015202530

UK

TrafordWharfside●Traford

●GreaterManchester●NorthWest

Source:ONS,OxfordEconomics

6

DefinedastheTrafford006BLower-layerSuperOutputArea(LSOA),accordingtothe2011Census.9

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TheEconomicImpactofRegeneratingOldTraffordTheEconomicImpactofRegeneratingOldTrafford

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WhiletheTraffordWharfside

Masterplanareahasseen

arecentexpansionin

employment,ithasgenerallycreatedlower-valuejobs.

TheMasterplanareaadded

over5,400jobsbetween2015and2022,?equivalenttoan

averagegrowthrateof5.1%

peryear—farexceedingthe

overallperformanceofthe

Traffordeconomy(0.9%per

year),andgrowingthreetimesfasterthanacrossGreater

Manchester(1.7%peryear).

However,almosthalfofthe

increaseinemploymentcameinadministrative&support

services,andtheaverage

productivityofjobscreatedattheMasterplansitewassome￡11,600(or22%)lessthantheTraffordaverage.

Consequently,theTrafford

WharfsideMasterplansiteisaround7%lessproductive

thantheTraffordaverage,aproductivitygapequivalentto￡3,700perjoborworthapotential￡69millionofGVAacrosstheTraffordeconomy.?

TheTraffordWharfside

MasterplansitesimilarlylagsboththeNorthWestandUKeconomiesbythismeasure.

Ourbaselineforecast

presentsachallenging

outlookfortheTrafford

economy.Ourforecast

forTrafford—whichdoes

notexplicitlyaccountfor

policyinterventionssuchastheTraffordWharfsideor

potentialinvestmentinanewstadium—suggeststhatthe

Borough’seconomywillgrowbyanaverageof1.3%peryearto2039,underperforming

itscomparatorareas.The

prospectsforgrowtharelessfavourablefortheMasterplansite:weexpectTraffordto

experienceemployment

growthof0.8%peryearonaverage.Thisfallsto0.5%peryearforfirmscurrentlyoperatinglocally.

Fig.5:ComponentsofGVAgrowth:Traffordandcomparatorareas,2015to2039

%y/y,2015to2022

%y/y,2023to2039

Traford

GreaterManchester

NorthWest

UK

0.9

1.7

1.1

1.4

0.7

2.4

1.2

1.8

2.9

0

0.8

1.4

.6

Traford

GreaterManchester

NorthWest

UK

0.8

0.9

0.7

0

0

.51.3

0.8

.8

1.7

1.5

0.7

0.8

1.6

0.00.51.01.52.02.5

01234

Jobs

Productivity

Source:ONS,OxfordEconomics.Note:maynotsumduetorounding.

107Thisreflectstheperiodforwhichgeographicallygranularemploymentdataareavailable.

8ThisassumesthattheproductivityoffirmswithintheTraffordWharfsideMasterplansiteisequivalenttotheircounterpartsinthesamesectorselsewhereinTrafford.

2.2AONCEINA

GENERATIONOPPORTUNITYTOTRANSFORMTHE

PROSPECTSOFTHEAREA

TraffordWharfsidebenefitsfrombeingastrategic

locationrunningalongthe

ManchesterShipCanal,

withgoodaccessibilityto

ManchesterCityCentre,

SalfordQuays,Manchester

Airport,andtoresidential

suburbsacrosstheBorough.

TheredevelopmentoftheareahasbeenapriorityforTraffordCouncilandtheirTrafford

WharfsideMasterplanaimstointensifyanddensifytheareathroughtheprovisionofofficespace,retail,andhospitality,

aswellasresidentialunts.

ManchesterUnited’spotentialinvestmentinanewstadium

andassociatedmasterplanforthesurroundingareacould

provideacatalystforthis

regeneration.Atthetimeof

writing,aTripartitePartnershipcontainingManchesterUnited,TraffordMetropolitanBoroughCouncil,andtheGMCAare

workingtogetherondeliveringthis.

2.2.1Thesizeoftheprize

Thepotentialnewstadium,inconjunctionwiththe

OldTraffordandTrafford

WharfsideRegeneration

Masterplans,wouldgenerateasubstantialboosttothelocaleconomy.Weestimatethat

anewstadium,OldTraffordMasterplan,andTrafford

WharfsideRegeneration

Masterplanwouldprovideanetincreaseof￡4.18billioninGVAcontributionsto

theTraffordEconomyand

facilitate47,900additionaljobsby2039.Acrossthe

nationaleconomy,thenet

increaseineconomicimpactamountstoa￡7.32billion

GVAcontributionstotheUKeconomyand91,600jobs

acrosstheUKworkforce,

alongside￡1.38billionintaxrevenues—equivalenttotheaverage(median)wages

of41,500nursesor36,700primaryschoolteachers.

Thepotentialnewstadium

wouldcontribute￡243millionmoreinGVAcontributionstoGDPand2,700morejobsto

theTraffordeconomythan

theexistingstadiumonce

developed,inadditiontothe

￡3.37billioninGVAand37,500morejobssupportedbythe

StadiumDistrictMasterplan,

whiletheTraffordWharfside

Masterplancouldaddafurther￡572millioninGVAand7,700jobstoTrafford.Itisworth

notingthatiftheMasterplanisdeliveredafterthestadiumdevelopment,thensomeof

thecommercialdevelopmentsdeliveredbytheprivatesector

maybedesignedtocapturethespendingofvisitorsto

footballmatches,events,andstadiumtours.?Consequently,theeconomicimpactoftheMasterplanandstadiummaybeinterlinked.

Inadditiontotheabove,

therewillalsobesubstantialbenefitsarisingfromthe

constructionactivityin

Trafford(unfortunatelywe

arenotabletoquantifytheseatthisstage).Whilemost

ofthedirectconstruction

phasejobswouldbebasedinTrafford,GreatManchesterwillbenefitfromsupplychainandconsumerspending.

Furthermore,manyofthese

constructionphasejobswillbetakenbyresidentsofthecityregion.

9

Ourestimatesaccountforthepotentialtodouble-counttheoff-stadiumspendingofvisitorstotheareaandofnewresidents11livingatTraffordWharfsidewithinthecommercialspacedeliveredbytheMasterplan.

12

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TheEconomicImpactofRegeneratingOldTraffordTheEconomicImpactofRegeneratingOldTrafford

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Fig.6:Netadditionalimpactsofanewstadium,OldTraffordMasterplanandtheTraffordWharfsideMasterplan,2039

Fig.7:FutureneteconomicimpactofanewstadiumandMasterplans,2039

GVA,￡billion,constant2023pricesJobs,thousand

8

6

4

2

0

5.85

7.32

1.00

4.18

5.01

0.68

0.78

0.57

3.95

4.53

5.56

3.37

TrafordGreaterNorthWestUK

Manchester

100

75

50

25

0

73.5

91.6

12.9

47.9

61.5

9.1

10.5

7.7

45.0

52.8

64.6

37.5

6.9

8.3

10.2

TrafordGreaterNorthWestUK

Manchester

Stadium:on-siteStadium:of-site

StadiumDistrict(fullboundary)

TrafordWharfside

Source:Foster+Partners,ManchesterUnited,TraffordBoroughCouncil,OxfordEconomics.Note:maynotsumduetorounding.

2.2.2AstepchangeinthefortunesoftheTrafford

economy

WeestimatethatthepotentialnewstadiumandOldTraffordMasterplan,alongwiththe

TraffordWharfsideMasterplancouldresultintherateof

economicgrowthincreasingfrom1.3%peryearinour

baselineforecastto2.9%peryear,through2023to2039.

Thiswould,allelseequal,

catapultTraffordfromamong

theworstperforminglocalauthoritiesinthecountrytoamongitsbestperformers.

Meanwhile,employment

growthwouldaverage2.1%peryear,morethantwo-and-a-halftimesourbaselineforecast

(0.8%peryear),enablingTraffordtojumpfromthebottomhalfofthegrowthtabletoamongthebestperformingareas.

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

GVA,%y/y

2.9

1.9

1.3

1.7

TrafordGreater

Manchester

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Employment,%y/y

2.1

0.9

1.1

0.8

TrafordGreater

Manchester

Baselineforecast

Newstadium&StadiumDistrict/TrafordWharfsideMasterplans

Source:Foster+Partners,ManchesterUnited,TraffordBoroughCouncil,OxfordEconomics

Thepotentialinvestment

wouldalsohelpdeliverpolicyobjectivesofTraffordCouncilandGMCA.Forexample,theregenerationoftheTrafford

Wharfsideisincludedinthe

“TraffordLocalPlan”(Policy

SL2).1?ThroughthepromotionoflandfordevelopmentinthislocationtheCouncilaimsto

enableopportunitiesforneweconomic(particularlydigitalandmediaindustries),leisure

(hotelsandvisitorattractions),andresidentialdevelopment.Successfullydeliveringthe

stadiumandmasterplans

wouldbenefitallsectorsof

theeconomyandgrowth

wouldnolongerbereliantonasmallnumberofsectors.OurbaselineoutlookforTrafford

suggeststhatthreesectorswillcreatemorethantwo-thirdsofjobs(professional,scientific,

andtechnical;administrative

&supportservices;and

wholesale&retail).The

plannedredevelopment

ofTraffordWharfsideand

potentialnewstadiumwouldprovideamorediversemix

ofemploymentgrowthwithadditionalemployment

creationinsectorssuchas

information&communicationandaccommodation&foodservices.

10TraffordMetropolitanBoroughCouncil,

“TraffordLocalPlan2012-2026”

,accessed2024.

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TheEconomicImpactofRegeneratingOldTraffordTheEconomicImpactofRegeneratingOldTrafford

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Fig.8:Compositionofemploymentcreation:baselineforecastvsinvestmentscenario,Trafford,2023to2039

Theregenerationand

developmentofalargermodernstadiumwould

alsosupporttheGreater

ManchesterStrategyinitsaimstomakeGreaterManchester

agreatplacetovisitand

invest.Thestrategynotes

theopportunitiesof“GreaterManchester’sinternationallyrecognisedleisure,sportandculturaloffer”.Thevarious

proposedinvestmentsinTraffordwouldsupport

increasedfootfall,andthroughmediacoverageinfluence

“investor/businessrelocator/

studentperceptionsofGreaterManchester”.11

Professional,scienti?c&technicalAdministrative&supportservices Wholesale&retailtradeAccommodation&foodservices Information&communicationFinancial&insurance

Humanhealth&socialworkArts,entertainment&recreationRealestate

Education OtherserviceactivitiesTransportation&storage

Construction

Agriculture

Utilities

Mining&quarryingWatersupply

Publicadministration&defenceManufacturing

-20-10010203040

Baselineforecast

Newstadium&Stadium

District/TrafordWharfsideMasterplans

Source:Foster+Partners,ManchesterUnited,TraffordBoroughCouncil,OxfordEconomics

1411GreaterManchesterCombinedAuthority,

“GreaterManchesterStrategy2021-2031”

,accessed2024.

2.3ABOOSTTOTOURISM

ManchesterUnitedisa

significantdrawforvisitors,andthiswillbeenhanced

throughstadiuminvestment.

TheGreaterManchesterLocalIndustrialStrategy(publishedinJune2019)highlighted

theimportanceofhospitality,tourism,andsportsector.

Althoughslightlyoutofdate,itreportedthatthesector

employedapproximately

110,000peopleinjustunder10,000businessesand

provided￡2.9billionofGVA

in2016.Italsonotedthatit

wasthethirdmostvisited

UKcitybyinternational

visitors,behindLondonand

Edinburgh,andthatsportingassetssuchasManchester

Unitedareakeydriverof

visitornumberstothecity

region.12Researchcarried

outbyMarketingManchesterfoundthattheManchester

UnitedStadiumTourattractedaround310,800visitorsin

2019,whichwasthesecond-highestforapaidattractioninGreaterManchester.13

OldTraffordcurrentlyhasa

capacityof74,310.DatafromManchesterUnitedsuggest

over2.3millionpeoplevisitedGMCAinthe2023/24season,bothtoattendmatchesandvisitotherattractionsatthe

club,suchasthestadiumtour

andthemegastore.These

visitorsspentanestimated

￡358millioninthecity.Of

thesevisitors,itisestimated

that28.9%orover682,000

wereinternational.Asagroup,internationalvisitorsspend

nearlythreetimesasmuch

pernightasdomesticvisitorsandtheirspendi