cbo -美國(guó)政策制定者的信息來源：國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室 101 Information Sources for Policymakers -Congressional Budget Office 101

congressionalBudgetoffice

NonportisanAnalysisfortheU.S.congress

October30,2024

InformationSourcesforPolicymakers:CongressionalBudgetOffice101

PresentationatAcademyHealth’sHealthPolicyOrientation

LaraRobillard

PrincipalAnalyst,BudgetAnalysisDivision

Formoreinformation,see

/events/2024-10/2024-health-policy-orientation

.

CBOWasCreatedbythe

CongressionalBudgetand

ImpoundmentControlActof1974

1

CBO’sRole

CBOwasestablishedtogivetheCongressastrongerroleinbudgetmatters.

Theagencyprovidesanalysisofbudgetaryandeconomicissuesthatisobjectiveandimpartial.Itisstrictlynonpartisananddoesnotmakepolicyrecommendations.

CBOfollowsprocessesthatarespecifiedinstatuteorthatithasdevelopedinconcertwiththeBudgetCommitteesandCongressionalleadership.CBO’schiefresponsibilityundertheBudgetActistohelptheBudgetCommitteeswiththe

mattersundertheirjurisdiction.

2

CBO’sOrganization

Theagency’sDirectorisappointedjointlybytheSpeakeroftheHouseandthePresidentprotemporeoftheSenateandhasafour-yearterm.

CBOhasabout270employees.Theyarehiredsolelyonthebasisofprofessionalcompetence,withoutregardtopolitical

affiliation.Mosthaveadvanceddegrees.

CBO’sorganizationconsistsoftheOfficeoftheDirectorandninedivisions:

BudgetAnalysis

FinancialAnalysis

HealthAnalysis

Labor,IncomeSecurity,andLong-TermAnalysis

MacroeconomicAnalysis

Management,Business,andInformationServices

MicroeconomicStudies

NationalSecurity

TaxAnalysis

3

CBOProvidesBudgetand

EconomicAnalysistoSupporttheCongressionalBudgetProcess

Foradditionalinformation,see

/about

.4

CBOProvidesBaselineBudgetandEconomicProjections

CBOprepares,andperiodicallyupdates,a10-yearbudgetbaselinethatservesasabenchmarkformeasuringtheeffectsof

proposedlegislation.

Thebaselinereflectstheassumptionthatcurrentlawsgoverningspendingand

revenuesgenerallyremainunchanged,anditreliesonCBO’sforecastsofkeyeconomic

factors.

Foradditionalinformation,see

/data/budget-economic-data

.5

CBOPreparesEstimatesoftheEffectsofLegislativeProposals

CBOfulfillsthousandsofrequestseachyearfortechnicalassistanceaslawmakersdraftlegislation.

CBOisrequiredtoproduceacostestimatefornearlyeverybillapprovedbyafull

committee.Theagencyusuallyproduces600to800costestimateseachyear.

Thoseestimatesincludetheimpactoffederal

mandatesonstate,local,andtribalgovernments.

Furthermore,CBOtracksappropriationactions.

Foradditionalinformation,see

/cost-estimates

.6

CBO’sEstimatesHaveCertainCharacteristics

Theestimatesfocusonthenext10yearsbutsometimeslook20yearsormoreintothefuture.

Theyreflectthemiddleofthedistributionoflikelyoutcomes.

Theyincorporatebehavioralresponsestotheextentfeasible,onthebasisoftheavailableevidence.

Theymaybeupdatedfornewinformationandmaychangeasaresult.Andtheyincludeexplanationsoftheanalysistotheextentfeasible.

Foradditionalinformation,see

/cost-estimates

.7

CBOPublishesAbout70Reports,Testimonies,and

WorkingPapersEachYear

CBO’sreportscovereverymajorareaof

federalpolicy,includingspendingprograms,thetaxcode,andbudgetaryandeconomicchallenges.

Thereportsoftenpresentoptionsforchangesinthefederalprogramortaxrulesunder

consideration,buttheymakenorecommendations.

Foradditionalinformation,see

/about/products

.8

CBOPrioritizesObjectivity,

AnalyticalSoundness,

Responsiveness,Transparency,and

Accessibility

9

CBO’sAnalysisIsObjective,Impartial,andNonpartisan

CBOmakesnopolicyrecommendations.

Ithirespeopleonthebasisoftheirexpertisewithoutregardtopoliticalaffiliation.Theagencycarefullyconsiderswhetherpotentialanalystscanperformobjectiveanalysis,regardlessoftheirownpersonalviews.

CBOusesacommonsetofassumptionswhenanalyzingdifferentlegislativeproposalstoensurethatitsestimatesareconsistentandimpartial.

Theagency’sestimatesareinherentlyuncertain,butitsgoalistoproduceestimatesthatareinthemiddleofthedistributionofpotentialoutcomes.

Foradditionalinformation,see

/about/processes

.10

CBO’sAssessmentsAreBasedonDetailedAnalysis

CBObasesitsassessmentson:

Detailedunderstandingoffederalprogramsandrevenuesources.

Examinationoftherelevantresearchliterature.

Analysisofdatareportedbyfederalstatisticalagenciesandothergroups.

Consultationwithoutsideexpertsinacademia,thinktanks,industrygroups,theprivatesector,andfederal,state,andlocalagencies.

DiscussionwithCBO’sPanelofEconomicAdvisersandPanelofHealthAdvisers.

11

CBOSeeksToProvideInformationWhenItIsMostUseful

CBOcompletesnearlyallcostestimatesbeforethelegislationatissuecomestoafloorvote.

Toprovidecontextforitsestimates,CBOprovidestechnicalassistance,reports,andotherinformationtopolicymakersduringearlierstagesofthelegislative

process.

Tobolsteritsresponsiveness,CBOhasexpandedstaffinginhigh-demandareas.

12

CBOMakesItsWorkTransparentinDifferentWays

Testifyingandpublishinganswerstoquestions

Explaininganalyticmethods

Releasingdata

Analyzingtheaccuracyofitsestimates

Comparingcurrentestimateswithpreviousestimates

Comparingitsestimateswiththoseofotherorganizations

Estimatingthe