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CPG
Marketingat
theAlgorithmicCrossroads
CARAT
DESIGNINGFRPEOPLE
?2025Carat|allrightsreserved
Contents
TwotimelesstruthsofCPGmarketing04
Sharedscalehaschanged05
TheAlgorithmicEraofmarketing07
Sixconsiderations:
-Winthebattleforalgorithmicavailability10
-Pioneernewwaystofindgrowthaudiences11
-Createequalopportunityacrossalltouchpoints13
-Fueltheriseofalgorithmicplanning15
-Anticipateoutcomes,don’tjustmeasureKPIs17
-Reimaginetheretailmediavalueexchange19
Themostinnovativebrandswin21
AboutCarat22
2
CPGMarketingattheAlgorithmicCrossroads
CPG
Marketingat
theAlgorithmicCrossroads
Carathasbeenapioneerinthemedia
industryfor60years,helpingtheworld’s
mosticonicCPGbrandstogrow.Ateveryinflectionpointinthemedialandscape,webackedthecraftofcommunicationsplanningtomakeatransformative
impactonbrands’topandbottomlines.Asmediachangesagain,Caratleads
CPGbrandsintotheAlgorithmicEra.
CPGMarketingattheAlgorithmicCrossroads3CARAT
CPGMarketingattheAlgorithmicCrossroadsCARAT
Twotimelesstruths
CPGbrandsaremarketing
marvels,makingseemingly
mundanemomentsfeeljustthatlittlebitmorespecialbecause
theyunderstandtwotimelesstruthsbetterthananyone.
02
01
Theyknowtheeffectivenessof
marketingcommunicationsis
builtonachievingnotjustscale,
butsharedscale,i.e.,fame.2Adsaremoreeffectivewhenalarge
audienceseesthemandknows
thatmanyotherpeoplehaveseenthem,too.3
Theyembracethelawsofgrowth.Brandsmustbeeasytorecall
andfindinbuyingsituations,somarketing’sjobistobuildmentalandphysicalavailability1-at
scale.
CPGMarketingattheAlgorithmicCrossroads4CARAT
Sharedscalehaschanged
Thewaymarketerscanachieve
sharedscalehaschanged
dramatically.
Priortothemid-2000s,shared
scalewasbuiltinlinearbroadcastchannels.Newsanchorssetthe
agenda,30-secondadsshapedtastes,andlivetransmissionsbuiltcollectivememories.DuringthisBroadcastEra,theworldgot
smaller,andpeoplegrewcloser.4
Inthemid-2000s,thelandscape
shifted,fueledbytheexplosive
growthofsocialplatformsandtheadventofthesmartphone.Whenglobalsmartphonepenetration
hit50%in2012,wedisappearedinourownfeeds.Thismarked
thestartofthePrecisionEra,inwhichmarketerstriedtotacklethesharedscalechallengebychasingmasspersonalization,performancemarketing,andROAS.
Between2012and2024the
numberofglobalmartech
solutionsgrewby4000%,5whiletheaveragemarketingbudget
asapercentageofnetrevenuedeclinedby26%.6Thisputatax
oneffectiveness:lowerthan
50%datamatchrates,756%of
advertisingdollarsvanishinginthesupplychain,8andperformancemedialackingincrementality.9
Brandswerepushedfurther
downthefunnel,sacrificingtheoptimalbalancebetweenshort-andlong-termgrowthonthe
altaroftheirquestforoptimizedconversion.10
CPGMarketingattheAlgorithmicCrossroads5CARAT
Inshort,itbecamemuchhardertoachievesharedscale.
“
52%ofCPGCMOsareunsurewhethernewvideosolutionsdeliveraseffectivelyasbroadcastTV.
43%arenotevensureinwhich
channelstheyshouldinvest.11
ThePrecisionEraalsochanged
thewaywesocialize.Today,
friendsaremoreimportanttousthanever,butwespendlesstimewiththemandsocializeinmediainstead.12Whilein2011,people
usedsocialmediatoconnect,it’snowasourceofentertainment.13Associalconnectionschangedfromactiverelationshipsto
nurtureintopassivecontentto
consume,loneliness,anxiety,andpoliticalpolarizationgrew.14
ThePrecisionErawasdoubleedged:ithelpedmarketersbecomeseriousabout
measurementanditmadeit
easierforpeopletostayintouch.butitalsocreatedsignificant
mediaandsocietaldisruptionthatwecontinuetofeeltoday.
It’stemptingtofocusonlyonchange.Butwhilechange
canleadtobreakthroughs,youcanbuildbusiness
strategyonthatwhichis
stableovertime.WeusedourproprietaryAudiencePanelinkeyglobalmarketstoidentifyconsumer
attitudesthathaven’t
changedinthelast14years.Herearethreethathavenotbudgedsince2011:
?Futureprospects:
consumersdon’texpecttheirstandardoflivingtochange
?Brandapathy:
internationalbrands
don’thavegreater
premiumstatusand
consumersbelieve
own-labelproductsareasgoodasbranded
products.
?Consumerdefault:
Onceconsumersfindaproducttheylike,theywillsticktoit.
Formoreinformationontheconsumertrendsthatdon’tchange,aswellasthose
thatchangedsignificantly
butgraduallyoverthelast14years,pleasegetintouch.
Downloaddentsu’s
CMONavigator
CPGMarketingattheAlgorithmicCrossroads6CARAT
Thenew
marketing
communications
era
Today,wefaceagenerational
shiftintheinformationtechnologylandscape.
Algorithmsincreasinglygovern
thedistributionofinformation,notjustinoursocialfeedsbutacrosseverysingleMediatouchpoint.15Theyalreadyinfluence59.5%of
advertisinginvestments,andthisisprojectedtogrowtoawhopping79%globallyby2027.16
Weare
enteringthe
AlgorithmicEraofMarketing.
Theseautomatedrecipesfordecision-makingincreasinglygovernhowinformation
flowsthroughthemedia
landscapeandwhogetstoseewhat.TheInstagramalgorithm,forexample,isfantasticatunderstandingourpreferencesandthenservingtheperfectmixofcontentfromourfriends,
memeaccounts,and
genuinelygreatproductrecommendations.
Analgorithmisadecision-makingframeworkfor
completingataskor
solvingaproblem.Thinkof
itasarecipe.Algorithmslistingredients,asetoftoolstouse,asetofactionstofollowinaspecificorder,and,
dependingonthenatureofyourcooking,adegreeoffreedomforinterpretation.
CPGMarketingattheAlgorithmicCrossroads7CARAT
Lastyear,wereleasedour
ConsumerVision2035report,whichpredictedthatintheAlgorithmicEra:
?Brandswillachieveshared
scalebyhelpingpeopleformcommunityaroundthethingstheycareabout.17
?Low-interest,low-involvementcategorypurchaseswillbe
handledbyAIonourbehalf,creatinganarrowerwindowforbrandstoinfluencethe
preferencesofthehumanswhoemploythetechnology.
?Cultureisshapedatthe
communitylevelwiththe
algorithmasthegatekeeper,sowe’llincreasinglyhaveto
buildbrandswithcreators,
collaborators,andpublishers,aswellasthroughadvertising.
?Brandsalllookatthesamedata,playinthesame
walledgardens,andare
encouragedtoletthesamealgorithmsdothesame
things,sothebrandsthatwinaretheonesthatfindvaluebeyondthataverageby
anticipatingpeople’sneeds.
?Marketerscannotrelyonthetools,methodologies,and
waysofthinkingwe’vecometorelyoninthePrecisionEra;itwouldbelikeshowingup
toplayagameoffootballdressedinfullskigear.
consumerlandscapeintenyears’time,drawingonthelivedexperiencesandexpectationsof
Let’srecap
Brandsstillneedtobeeasyto
recallandfind.Sharedscaleis
pivotaltomarketingeffectivenessbutthecombinationofmartechfragmentationanddeclining
marketingbudgetshasmadeitmuchmoredifficulttoachieve.Aswefacethisgenerationalshiftintheinformationtechnology
landscape,themillion-dollar
questionforCPGbrandsishowcanweachievesharedscaleintheAlgorithmicEra?
Dentsu’sConsumerVision2035researchexploresthemacrotrendsshapingthe
30,000consumersacross27markets,aswellas20subjectmatterexperts.
Inthereport,weoutlinedthe12trendsthatwill
determinethefutureof
consumers,technology,
culture,andbrand.Tofindoutmore,downloadthereport.
DownloadConsumer
Vision2023
CPGMarketingattheAlgorithmicCrossroads8CARAT
Consideration
02
PioneerANew
WayToFindGrowthAudiences
Consideration
04
FuelTheRise
OfAlgorithmicPlanning
Consideration
06
Reimaginethe
RetailMediaValueExchange
TheAlgorithmicEracomespreloaded
withalotoftechnological,societal,andmarketingjeopardy,butit’saunique
opportunitytopressresettomakesure
brandsarefightingfit.TherearesixthingseveryCPGmarketermustconsideriftheyaretowin.
SixconsiderationsfortheAlgorithmicEra
Consideration
01
WintheBattleforAlgorithmicAvailability
Consideration
03
CreateEqual
OpportunityAcrossAllTouchpoints
Consideration
05
Anticipate
Outcomes,Don’tJustMeasureKPIs
CPGMarketingattheAlgorithmicCrossroads9CARAT
Consideration
01
WintheBattleFor
AlgorithmicAvailability
Algorithms,fueledby
artificialintelligence,havea
transformativeimpactonboth
thedemand-andthesupply-sideoftheCPGvalueequation.
Inthefuture,somelow-interest,
low-involvementbuyingdecisionswillbehandledintheirentirety
byAI.Thiswillchangeourlives
forthebetter,makingusfaster,
freefrommundanechores,andmorethoroughlyentertained.
Atthesametime,algorithmswillarbitratephysicalavailability:theretailsupplychainisincreasinglymanagedbyalgorithms,as
areconsumer-facingproductsuggestionsandadvertisingplacements.
Marketingbybotstobots
influencingbuyingdecisionsmadebybotsonourbehalf.
Achievingsharedscalein
theAlgorithmicErastartswith
masteringthenewfundamentalsofalgorithmicavailability.
Becausealgorithmsmake
decisionsbasedonvastamountsofpubliclyavailabledatafrom
awiderangeofchannels,it’skeythatbrandsfightthebattleforalgorithmicavailability.
Whatthismeansforyoutodayisthatyoumustgettheboringstuffright:tagging,taxonomy,namingconventions,SEO,andlinkstrategyacrossallexternaltouchpoints.
Next,buildingonthesefoundations,brandscan
unlockpredictivemodelling
bycombiningcultureand
commercesignals,leveraging
thefullpotentialofAItocreateamediabrainthatsupports
andsteersdecisionmaking.Thisrequiresatruepartnershipwith
ITtoimprovecross-functional
transparencyofdataandinsight.
Andtoavoidseriousissuessuch
asAItrainingdatabiasand
breachesofconsumerprivacy,
brandsshouldconsiderforming
AIethicscommitteeswitha
mandatetomakebinding
decisionsarounddatausageand
governanceforthepurposesof
traininganddeployingAIsolutionsacrossthebusiness.
CPGMarketingattheAlgorithmicCrossroads
10
Consideration
02
PioneerANew
WayToFindGrowth
Audiences
Masspersonalizationalonewon’tachievesharedscale.Themarcommslandscapeistoofragmentedandwhiletheplatformsprovideeasy
in-platformtargeting,thewalls
aroundtheirgardensmake
deduplicatingaudiencesacrossplatformsnearlyimpossible–evenwiththehelpofAI.
Thereisarealtemptation,
encouragedbythosesame
platforms,tosimplyhandover
controlofmarketingbudgetsandletthealgorithmsdoitsthing–
fromoptimizingmediabudgetstogeneratingcreativetailoredtotheindividual.18
Cedingcontrolisnottheanswer,however.
CPGMarketingattheAlgorithmicCrossroads11CARAT
02
Consideration
Instead,brandsshould
recognizethatpeopleformtightcommunitiesaroundshared
passionsandidentifythemostvaluablecommunities.This
communityintelligencewillcreatemoreopportunitiesforbrandstobringpeopletogetherinculturallyrelevantways.
Wecallthisgrowthmapping
anduseourproprietaryidentitysolutiontocombineinterest
graphswithpropensityscoring,therebycreatingadynamic
mapofabrand’stotalaudienceuniversethathelpsusprioritize
high-valuecommunities.
Growthmappinggoesbeyondtheconceptofbecomingniche.It’snotaboutbeingvisibleto
fewer,rather,it’saboutbeing
relevanttomore.Thegoalis
tocreateaninfrastructurethat
empowerssmart,data-driven
andconsumer-centricbusiness
decisions.Thisinfrastructureis
designedaroundcomprehensiveaudiencesignals,whichenableclientstoeffectivelypredict
consumerbehaviors.
Thiscreatesadynamicsystemofmarketingcommunications,onethatacknowledgesandadaptstotheever-evolvingnatureof
audiences.Itprovidesforagile,dynamicadjustments,ensuring
activityremainsalignedwith
consumerneedsandmarket
shifts.Growthmappingisa
pathwaytoachievinggenuine
consumer-centricity,puttingtheaudienceattheheartofevery
decisionandfosteringmeaningfulconnectionsatscale.
Growthmappingbecomes
particularlypowerfulwhen
coupledwithourbest-in-class
buyingcapabilities.DentsuisthemarketleaderintheutilizationofembeddedAIsolutionsgloballyandwearebuildingmarket-
leadingproductstocomplementthebuyingplatformsandtruly
harnessthepoweroftheiralgorithms.
CPGMarketingattheAlgorithmicCrossroads12CARAT
Consideration
03
CreateEqual
OpportunityAcrossAllTouchpoints
IntheAlgorithmicEra,thereis
noboundarybetweenshopper
andbrandmarketing.Google
ShoppingleveragesAItohelp
peoplefindthemostrelevant
productsmuchmorequickly,
effectivelycreatingasocialfeedinsteadofclassicsearchresults.19AmazonarescalingRufus,their
newgenerativeAI-powered
conversationalshoppingassistant,addingemotionandpersonalitytowhatusedtobeanentirely
functionalplatform,20andlast
year,Walmartlaunchedanew,fullyshoppable23-partcontentseriesonTikTok.21
We’reinanewrealityof
culturalconversionwhereeverytouchpointcanswitchbetweendeliveringbothculturaland
commercialoutcomes.
Tounderstandhowmuchto
investineverytouchpoint,brandsmustcreateaholisticviewof
howallcultureandcommerce
touchpointscometogetherto
delivervalue.Today’srealityis
thatmanybrandsareinvesting
heavilyinretailmediabasedonlimitedevidenceofhowthose
touchpointscometogetherwithallothertouchpointstodeliveranincrementalcontributionoran
effectivenessmultiplier.
CPGMarketingattheAlgorithmicCrossroads13CARAT
03
Consideration
Toomanybrands‘flyblind’
inshoppermarketing,soto
helpthemunderstandthe
realopportunity,werecentlylaunchedanewcustom
studyoftheretailtouchpointsof35US-basedretailers.We
lookedatshopperbehaviorsandmotivationsinadditionto
categoryandbrandchoices
tounderstandhowshopper
touchpointsimpactthetotalmix.
Usingthisstudy,wecalibrated
ourproprietaryplanningtool,
foroneofourCPGclientsand
usedittoimprovetheirbaselinechannelmix.Ouroptimized
touchpointmixreallocated8%ofthetotalbudgetfromshoppertobrandtouchpoints,deliveringaprojected1.6%incrementalnetreachanda+5.3frequency.
Wearenotjustdoingthisforourbrandclients,we’realsoworkingcloselywithretailerstofullymapeverytouchpointattheirdisposalandcalibratePlannertoenableustoplaneverycommunicationstouchpointonequalfooting.
Thisisabigshift.Insteadof
assessingeverytouchpointin
isolation,wecanconnectdotsandassessthemonalevel
playingfield–comparingappleswithapplestohelpbrandsmakesmarterinvestmentdecisions.
Atdentsuweuse
aproprietarycross-touchpointplanningtool.
Firstbuiltin1998,thistoolisfueledbyourIdentitySolutionandplugsdirectlyintoourmediabuyingarm.What’smoreit:
?Isglobally
consistentandlivein70+markets
?Enablesbalanceddecision-makingbecauseall
touchpointsare
measuredonthesamerespondents
?Caterstolocal
nuance,giventhatdataiscollectedineverymarket
?Iscreativelyneutral
?Facilitatesscenarioplanning
CPGMarketingattheAlgorithmicCrossroads14CARAT
04
FuelTheRiseOf
AlgorithmicPlanning
Themarcommslandscape
hasgonethroughastoundingchangesoverthelastfive
years,andit’scrucialthat
communicationsplanning
keepspace.Thedawnofthe
AlgorithmicEracreatesauniqueopportunitytotransformthecraftofplanning:
?Fromapaidmediadisciplinetoleadingend-to-end
experienceplanningcraft
?Fromone-size-fits-allanswerstocustom-built,continuouslyevolvingsolutions
?Frommakingfragmentedchoicesinisolationto
algorithmicallyconnectedmarketingcommunications
Algorithmicplanninggivesusa
newdecision-makingframework.Ratherthanlookingatbasicpaidmediaparameters,weunitetwodisciplinestocreateexperiencealgorithms:
1.Communicationsplanning
assessesalltouchpointsonanequalplayingfieldtocreatetheoptimaltouchpoint
mixtoachievecultureandcommerceoutcomesalongaconsumerjourney.
2.Contentplanningensures
thatforeveryaudienceat
anytime,eachtouchpoint
isarmedwithanassetthat
mosteffectivelyexpressestheconnectingidea.
“
Weareforginganew
craftofcommunicationsplanningforourclients
intheAlgorithmicEra.
CoretothisishowwelinkAIand“PI,”orpeople
intelligence.BecauseAI
raisesthebaronspeed,
accuracy,andabilityto
producealimitlessnumberofoptions,theadvantagecomesasmuchin
executionasitdoesin
strategyandplanning.
ContrarytotheideathatAIwillkillplanning,weseeitbringinginanewgoldenageofplanning.
—
HamishKinniburgh
ChiefStrategyandConsultancyOfficer,dentsu
Consideration
CPGMarketingattheAlgorithmicCrossroads15CARAT
04
Consideration
“
49%ofCPG
Downloaddentsu’s
CMONavigator
CMOssurveyedareexploringnewwaystomonetizetheirexperiencesandtouchpoints.
Thisalsomeanswemustretirethetraditionalmediaplan.Instead,wedeliver“ForYou”experiencesthatwinthealgorithmforeach
audience.
Theroleofthehumblecomms
plannernowfocusesoncreatingdynamicdecisiontreesthatsetouractivityinmotionandgiveusarecipeforhowwerespondtotheperformanceofthatactivity.Then,oncetheactivityislive,
oncetheplanmeetstheactualbidstreamsineachtouchpoint,weoptimizeonanongoingbasistoachievetheoutcomeswe
forecast.
Fromthatmomentonwards,
ourfocusturnstoongoing
reweightingofplanningand
activationalgorithmswithinanintegratedteamscrum–clientandagency,acrossdisciplines.Weworktobeattheforecastsanddeliverthebestpossibleset
ofoutcomesfrombrandtosalestoincreasedpurchasefrequency.
Algorithmicplanningclosesthe
gapbetweenplanningand
activation,anditisthekeyto
buildingdistinctivenessandbrandpowerintheAlgorithmicEra.
CPGMarketingattheAlgorithmicCrossroads16CARAT
Consideration
05
AnticipateOutcomes,Don’tJustMeasureKPIs
IntheAlgorithmicEra,
communicationsplanning
isaboutanticipatingwhere
consumerswillbetomorrow,notwheretheywereyesterday.Toembracealgorithmicplanninganditsrequirementtobeabletoreweightplansandactivationalgorithms,brandsmustadoptanoutcome-driven,predictiveapproachtomeasurement–
onethatlaysthefoundationfor
realtimecoursecorrectionsacrossalltouchpoints.
Thisforecastingshouldinclude
notjustperformancemetrics,
butalsoculturalshifts,consumersentiment,andemergingmarkettrends.We’redevelopingnew
methodologies,adaptive
forecasting,andacollaborativeapproachtounitingplanners
andbuyersacrossalldisciplines-agencyandclient-side-tobeattheforecast.
CPGMarketingattheAlgorithmicCrossroads
17
05
Consideration
Thismeansbuildingsimulations
basedonanticipatedshiftsin
behavior,brandperception,andcompetitivepositioning,then
aligningthesetodynamicallyupdatedforecasts.Tobuildthisoutcome-drivenmodel,we:
1.EstablishReal-Time
MonitoringandFeedbackLoops:
Wecontinuouslyadjust
forecastsandactionsbasedonimmediatedataand
insights,creatingaresponsivesystemthatlearnsasitgoesacrossowned,earned,
shared,andpaidmedia,andacrossbrand,performance,andanyformofpoint-of-salemarketing.
2.SetAdaptiveSuccess
Criteria:
Wedefinewhatsuccesslookslikeinadaptableterms,goingbeyondconventionalKPIs
toincludemetricsonbrandhealth,customerloyalty,andlong-termvalue.
3.FosterPlanner-Buyer
Collaboration:
Weencourageplannersandbuyersacrossallmarketingcommunicationsdisciplines,bothontheagencyand
clientsides,toworkasa
singleteam,alignedina
commongoaltoanticipateandsurpassforecastsratherthansettlingforstaticKPIs.
4.EnableAgilityinAction:
Weestablishflexiblecriteriaforsuccess,ensuringbrandscanpivotquicklyand
capitalizeonreal-time
opportunitiesastheyarise.
IntheAlgorithmicEra,success
isamovingtarget,soby
embracingreal-timeoutcome
anticipationtoclosethegap
betweenplanningandbuying,
brandscanoutmaneuverthe
competitionandbecometruly
futureproof.Thebrandsthatwinwillbethosethatcanbeattheirownexpectations,creatingmoreroomforagility,adaptability,andgrowth.
CPGMarketingattheAlgorithmicCrossroads18CARAT
06
ReimaginetheRetail
MediaValueExchange
IntheAlgorithmicEra,CPGbrands’traditionalstrengths
continuetobeincredibly
important.Abrandneedsbig,
boldconnectingideasthatshowitknowsitsplaceintheworldandhastheconfidencetoletpeoplebuildonthatpositioning.
Agreatbrandisbuiltona
greatbrandexperience.The
touchpointsthatmakeupthe
brandexperiencecontribute75%ofbrandstrength,threetimesthatofpaidmarketing.22Thismakes
theretailexperienceacrucial
battlegroundandcreatesahugeopportunityforCPGbrandsto
buildthealgorithminemergingspaces.
Howeasybrandsaretorecallandfindinbuyingsituations
isincreasinglydetermined
byalgorithms.Theleading
retailersacrossgeographies
arecapitalizingonthisshiftbybuildingretailmedianetworks.
Intheory,retailmediaistheonlymarketingchannelwherethe
buyerandthesellerhavethe
sameobjective,whichistodrivegrowthwiththeirsharedend
customer.Retailersfacehuge
pressuretofindincremental
revenuestreamstoremain
competitive,andthispressure
canleadthemtomaximizetheirownreturnsattheexpenseof
thoseoftheirbrandpartners.
“
Whenaskedwhich
transformationstrategytheyarepursuingto
deliverbusinessgrowth,41.3%ofCPGCMOs
surveyedsaythey
arebuildingtheirownmarketplacetore-selladditionalproducts
Downloaddentsu’s
CMONavigator
andservicesfromthirdparties.
Consideration
CPGMarketingattheAlgorithmicCrossroads19CARAT
06
Consideration
Thismakesretailmediaanirrationalmarketandleadsretailerstorarelyactingastruepartners:brandshaveimperfectinformation,andretailersusetheirleveragetoturnbrandbudgetintotradebudget.Brandshave
anopportunitytoredefinewhatcategoryleadershipinretailpartnershipmeans:
1.Buildameaningfulvalue2.Exploitagencydata3.Foroff-andon-trade
exchangewithretailersbyopportunitiestosuperchargeretailersthatdon’tcurrently
combiningagencyandthealgorithmforcompetitivehaveretailmedianetwork
clientdatatobringcategoryadvantage–forcompetitivecapabilities,particularlythe
insight,incrementalcustomer-advantage.Forexample,longtailofindependently
leveldataattributes,contentretailmedianetworksofferownedoutlets,brands
capabilitiesthatenhancepaidplacementsthatcanhaveanopportunitybuild
theshopperexperience,stimulateorganicpromotionthealgorithmandcreate
andprovetrueincrementalwhichcanbeusedtotrickanincrementalsourceof
categorygrowthandthesystem.revenue
enhancedretailerlifetimevalue.
CPGMarketingattheAlgorithmicCrossroads20CARAT
IntheAlgorithmicEra,the
mostin
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