摩根斯丹利-2025中國(guó)汽車綜述 China Autos Overview -2025-05

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Update

ChinaAutosOverview

TimHsiao

MorganStanleyResearch3

4

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Update

StockOverview

Company

Ticker

Rating

PT

Close

15-May

MktCap

(US$mn)

P/E

'25E'26E

P/S

'25E'26E

EV

NIOInc.

XPeng,Inc.LiAuto,

ZEEKRIntelligentBYDCompany

BYDCompany

NIO-US

XPEV-US

LI-US

ZK-US

1211-HK

002594-CN

OW

OW

OW

OW

OW

OW

5.9

26.0

32.0

36.0

438.0

433.0

3.99

20.62

28.55

28.92

420.40

376.80

8,816

20,027

30,778

7,351

161,673

161,673

NA

NA

21.4

NA

19.6

20.4

NA

98.0

14.7

17.2

16.0

16.8

0.7

1.8

1.3

0.4

1.2

1.2

0.5

1.3

1.0

0.3

1.0

1.0

OEMs

GreatWall

GreatWall

GeelyAutomobile

GuangzhouAutomobile

GuangzhouAutomobile

SAICMotor

DongfengMotor

BAICBluePark

ChongqingChanganYutongBus

BAICMotor

BrillianceChina

2333-HK

601633-CN

175-HK

2238-HK

601238-CN

600104-CN

489-HK

600733-CN

000625-CN

600066-CN

1958-HK

1114-HK

EW

UW

OW

OW

UW

OW

OW

UW

OW

EW

UW

EW

12.212.2024,07014.023.5624,07021.019.5826,104

3.52.829,152

3.67.999,15220.116.7226,532

5.24.094,324

5.57.365,68717.912.2514,83830.224.757,429

1.82.002,054

3.02.961,913

6.8

15.3

12.2

16.0

52.9

19.1

42.3

NA

16.9

11.7

6.5

4.3

5.9

13.4

9.7

11.7

38.6

15.0

19.6

NA

14.0

10.2

7.5

4.9

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.3

0.2

1.2

0.6

1.3

0.1

11.5

0.7

0.7

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.3

0.2

0.8

0.5

1.1

0.1

11.0

OW

EW

EW

OW

881-HK1268-HK3669-HK9690-HK

ZhongshengGroupChinaMeiDong

ChinaYongdaTUHUCar

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.9

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.8

Dealers

15.012.163,7166.35.0

2.22.103626.24.7

2.42.5863212.69.420.018.542,02618.414.6

Company

Ticker

Rating

PT

Close

15-May

MktCap

(US$mn)

P/E

'25E'26E

P/S

'25E'26E

Autoparts

FuyaoGlass

MinthGroup

NexteerAutomotiveHuizhouDesay

NingboJoyson

ForyouCorporationZhejiangSanhua

ChangzhouXingyuNavinfo

KebodaTechnologyHuayuAutomotive

WencanGroup

NingboTuopu

NingboXushengSuzhouRecodealBethelAutomotiveBeijingJingwei

3606-HK

425-HK

1316-HK

002920-CN

600699-CN

002906-CN

002050-CN

601799-CN

002405-CN

603786-CN

600741-CN

603348-CN

601689-CN

603305-CN

688800-CN

603596-CN

688326-CN

EW

OW

EW

OW

OW

OW

EW

OW

UW

OW

OW

UW

OW

UW

UW

OW

UW

51.50

26.00

5.50

160.00

20.00

42.00

29.00

173.00

5.20

75.00

20.70

16.00

72.00

13.00

39.00

69.00

47.00

53.70

19.74

5.72

104.40

16.90

31.42

26.71

138.97

8.30

53.27

18.60

21.10

51.44

13.21

51.25

56.40

76.95

19,911

2,930

1,844

8,033

3,280

2,276

13,684

5,504

2,729

2,983

8,130

897

12,765

2,144

1,126

4,719

1,230

13.5

7.2

15.3

21.5

15.7

19.2

27.5

22.1

NA

21.1

9.3

30.6

24.7

23.1

31.2

22.3

NA

11.5

6.0

11.6

16.9

13.0

15.0

23.3

17.7

NA

16.7

8.8

21.5

19.6

18.7

24.9

17.5

53.0

3.1

0.8

0.4

1.7

0.4

1.3

3.1

2.4

4.9

2.9

0.3

0.9

2.8

2.9

2.6

2.7

1.3

2.7

0.7

0.4

1.4

0.4

1.1

2.7

2.0

4.3

2.3

0.3

0.8

2.2

2.4

2.1

2.1

1.0

ADAS

HesaiGroup

WeRideInc.

HorizonRobotics

15.0023.00

10.50

17.368.76

7.04

2,352

2,492

19,041

54.7

NA

NA

25.6

NA

NA

5.0

29.0

39.0

3.6

7.1

22.9

EW

OW

OW

HSAI-USWRD-US9660-HK

EVTOL

EHangHoldingsEH-USOW30.0019.091,374NA65.410.86.9

Source:Factset,MorganStanleyResearch(E)estimates

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Update

MorganStanleyResearch5

Chinaautoindustryforecast

Weestimate28.3mnunitsofPVsales(+3%YoY)and14.9mnunitsofNEVsales(+21%YoY)in2025

PVwholesalevolume(mnunits)

30

25

20

15

10

5

-

28.3

28.5

24.324.723.7

27.626.0

21.115%

21.420.1

21.523.6

10%10%

7%6%

3%

1%

2%

-6%

-4%

-9%

DomesticExportTotalPVgrowth

Source:CAAM,MorganStanleyResearchEstimates(E)

20.0%

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

-5.0%

-10.0%

-

-15.0%

NEVwholesalepenetrationandvolume(mn

units)

73%

66%

70%

58%

62%

53%

45%

35%

28%

15%

21.5

19.8

18.1

23.2

6%

1.2

14.9

12.3

16.5

6.5

9.0

3.3

NEVwholesaleICEVwholesaleNEVpenetration

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

6

Chinaautoindustryforecastsummary

202320242025E2026E

ChinaPVwholesale26,01227,55328,27328,483

YoY

-DomesticYoY

-ExportYoY

10%

21,9284%

4,08461%

6%

22,6123%

4,94121%

3%

22,5860%

5,68715%

1%

22,135-2%

6,34912%

202320242025E2026E

ChinaEVwholesale9,00212,28114,93516,454

YoY

-DomesticYoY

-ExportYoY

38%

7,88434%

1,11872%

36%

11,05340%

1,22810%

22%

13,32621%

1,60931%

10%

14,3878%

2,06628%

202320242025E2026E

ChinaEVwholesale9,00212,28114,93516,454

YoY

38%

36%

22%

10%

-BEV

6,229

7,171

7,766

8,391

YoY

24%

15%

8%

8%

-PHEV

2,774

5,110

7,169

8,062

YoY

83%

84%

40%

12%

Source:CAAM,MorganStanleyResearchEstimates(E)

MorganStanleyResearch7

WehaveraisedourL2+autonomousdrivingpenetrationforecastto25%in2025

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

ChinaADAS/ADpenetrationforecast

Chinasmartdrivingforecastin2025

New

OldChange

L2+penetration(%)

25%

15%

10%

Volume(mnunits)

5.6

3.3

2.3

ADAS+ADpenetration(%)

80%

65%

15%

Volume(mnunits)

18.1

14.7

3.4

20232024E2025E2026EL4wL3wL1/2nL0

Source:Gasgoo,MorganStanleyResearchEstimates(E)

8

WholesaleNEVpenetrationreached15.6%inApril

MonthlyPVWholesalevolume(kunit)

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

Jan-18

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Apr-21

Jul-21

Oct-21

Jan-22

Apr-22

Jul-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

Apr-24

Jul-24

Oct-24

Jan-25

Apr-25

NEVICEVPVYoYgrowth

Source:CAAM,MorganStanleyResearch

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

BEV/PHEVvolumeandpenetration

1,600,000

1,400,000

1,200,000

1,000,000

800,000

600,000

400,000

200,000

0

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

May-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

Jan-25

Mar-25

PHEVwholesaleBEVwholesalePHEVpenetrationBEVpenetration

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

MorganStanleyResearch9

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Update

RetaildiscountsandpricecutssteepenedinApril

1.000.950.900.850.800.75

0.70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

1.00

0.99

BYDunweightedaverageretailpriceindex(1.0=Jan-23)0.970.96

0.930.930.930.93

0.92

0.92

0.890.88

0.87

0.820.810.820.810.82

0.790.790.790.790.79

0.76

0.74

0.77

0.74

0.71

Jan-23

Feb-23

Mar-23

Apr-23

May-23

Jun-23

Jul-23

Aug-23

Sep-23

Oct-23

Nov-23

Dec-23

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Dec-24

Jan-25

Feb-25

Mar-25

Apr-25

NumberofModelswithMSRPCut

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

20212022202320242025

GP1Index

-35.0%

-30.0%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Apr-21

Jul-21

Oct-21

Jan-22

Apr-22

Jul-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

Apr-24

Jul-24

Oct-24

Jan-25

Apr-25

LuxuryForeignLocalAverage

LuxuryvsJVvsLocalretaildiscount

30.0%

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

May-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

Jan-25

Mar-25

LuxuryJVLocal

Source:Companydata,CADA,CPCA,Autohome,MorganStanleyResearch

10

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Update

BEVshaveoutperformedPHEVs(incl.EREVs)inrecentmonths

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

NEVPowertrainMix

80%81%79%

77%76%77%76%77%75%75%77%75%74%73%72%

69%70%70%68%69%68%66%67%68%66%

62%63%

59%60%59%59%57%57%59%57%59%59%59%59%

54%

28%28%30%33%31%32%33%32%31%34%33%32%32%33%29%

20%21%19%21%20%21%22%19%20%25%25%20%21%22%23%25%24%24%25%24%23%26%

17%16%17%

3%3%3%3%4%4%3%2%4%4%4%5%6%5%6%6%

7%7%7%6%8%9%9%9%12%12%8%8%9%11%13%11%10%9%8%9%8%8%8%8%

BEVPHEVEREV

Source:CPCA,MorganStanleyResearch

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Update

MorganStanleyResearch11

PHEV/EREVbrandshavehighersalesexposuretolow-tierregions

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

100%

NEVpenetrationinlicense-plate-restrictedregions32%

26%

80%

60%

13%

14%

40%

7%

5%

20%

0%

BEVPHEVEREV

License-plate-restrictedregionsNon-platerestrictedregions

45%

40%

35%

30%

EVmarketshareintier-1cities30%29%

17%

25%

20%

8%

15%

6%

7%

5%

4%

4%

3%

10%

2%

1%

5%

0%

LiAutoXPengNIOBYDTeslaAito1Q23w2Q23w3Q23w4Q23w1Q24w2Q243Q24w4Q24

NEVsalesbyregion

5%

27%

8%

28%

36%

29%

11%

15%

31%

29%

25%

4%

16%27%

32%

39%

39%36%

35%

29%

22%

31%33%

14%

LiAutoXPengNIOBYDTeslaAitoTier1Tier2Tier3Tier4

EVmarketshareintier-4regions

43%

38%

7%

2%

2%

5%4%

1%

1%1%

1%

1%

LiAutoXPengNIOBYDTeslaAito1Q23w2Q23w3Q23w4Q23w1Q24w2Q243Q24w4Q24

Source:CPCA,MorganStanleyResearch

12

NEVMarketSharebyPowertrain

PHEVMarketShare

BEVMarketShare

Jan/21

Apr/21

Jul/21

Oct/21

Jan/22

Apr/22

Jul/22

Oct/22

Jan/23

Apr/23

Jul/23

Oct/23

Jan/24

Apr/24

Jul/24

Oct/24

Jan/25

Apr/25

Jan/21

Apr/21

Jul/21

Oct/21

Jan/22

Apr/22

Jul/22

Oct/22

Jan/23

Apr/23

Jul/23

Oct/23

Jan/24

Apr/24

Jul/24

Oct/24

Jan/25

Apr/25

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

BYDTeslaNIOXPengOraGeelyGermanOEMsOtherBYDGWMGeelyOther

100%80%60%40%20%0%

Source:CPCA,MorganStanleyResearch

EREVMarketShare

Jan/21

Apr/21

Jul/21

Oct/21

Jan/22

Apr/22

Jul/22

Oct/22

Jan/23

Apr/23

Jul/23

Oct/23

Jan/24

Apr/24

Jul/24

Oct/24

Jan/25

Apr/25

LiAutoAitoLeapNetaChangan

CheryDongfengYangWangPolestone

MorganStanleyResearch13

IntensifyingcompetitionintheChinaEVmarket

2025NEVWholesaleVolumeShare

BYD

Geely

SAIC

Chang'an

Tesla

Chery

Xpeng

Leapmotor

LiAuto

Dongfeng

Xiaomi

GAC

GreatWall

Aito

NIO

BAIC

Volkswagen

BMW

Audi

Mercedes

HozonMotor

11%

10%

6%

mm6%

mm6%

mm3%

mm3%

mm3%

mm3%

mm3%

mm2%

mm2%

mm2%

2%

1%

1%

1%

0%

0%

0%

34%

0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%

Source:CPCA,MorganStanleyResearch

2025vs2024VolumeShareChange

BYD

Geely

SAIC

Chang'an

Tesla

Chery

Xpeng

Leapmotor

LiAuto

Dongfeng

Xiaomi

GAC

GreatWall

Aito

NIO

BAIC

Volkswagen

BMW

Audi

Mercedes

HozonMotor

-1%

0%

mm0%

-2%mm

1%

2%

1%

-1%mm0%

mm1%

-1%

0%mm

-1%

0%

0%

-1%

0%

0%

0%

-1%mm

4%

-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%

14

GrowingCompetitionfromTechHeavyweights

?Delivered100k+unitsofSU7in2024.

?LaunchingsecondmodelYU7in2025.

?Developsautonomousdrivingsolutions.

?PartnerswithlocalOEMsindesigninganddevelopingsmartEVsunderthebrands

Aito,Luxeed,Stelato,Maextro.

?Developssmartcockpitsystemsandautonomousdrivingsolutions.

Tech

Heavyweights

Source:MorganStanleyResearch

MorganStanleyResearch15

Localbrandscontinuetogainsharefromforeignbrands

PVmarketsharebybrandorigin-TTM

Jan/05

Jul/05

Jan/06

Jul/06

Jan/07

Jul/07

Jan/08

Jul/08

Jan/09

Jul/09

Jan/10

Jul/10

Jan/11

Jul/11

Jan/12

Jul/12

Jan/13

Jul/13

Jan/14

Jul/14

Jan/15

Jul/15

Jan/16

Jul/16

Jan/17

Jul/17

Jan/18

Jul/18

Jan/19

Jul/19

Jan/20

Jul/20

Jan/21

Jul/21

Jan/22

Jul/22

Jan/23

Jul/23

Jan/24

Jul/24

Jan/25

70%65%60%55%50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10% 5%0%

GermanyJapanLocalUS-ex.TeslaTeslaOtherForeignbrands

Source:CPCA,MorganStanleyResearch

16

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Update

KeyurbanNOAplayers

OEMTeslaNIOXPengLiAutoZEEKRHuaweiGWMBYD-DenzaXiaomi

Name

FSDNOP+NGPNOANZPADSNOHPilotNOA

HighwayNOArollout

Time

20183Q201Q214Q21Gradualroll-out2Q212Q214Q231Q24

UrbanNOAprogress

Betaversioninasmallscope

2020Q3

Q2

Thefirsturban

NOH(HP550)was

launchedinApr-22

2022

Q3

FirstinstalledinP5

inSep-22

2023

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

AvailableintheUS

inSep-23

3cities(GZ,SZ,SH)

5cities(GZ,SZ,SH,

BJ,FS)

Finishedbetatest

in2cities(BJ,SH)

10cities

110cities

SOPinJan-23onMochaDHT

6cities(SH,GZ,SZ,CQ,HZ,BJ)

3cities(BJ,SH,BD)

Testingin208

cities

52cities

2024

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Testingin726

cities

255cities

110cities

Nationwide

Nationwide

Nationwide

10cities

NationwideinJul-

NationwideinJul-

NationwideinAug-

24

24

24

2024target

Nationwide

Nationwide

Nationwide

Betatest

Nationwide

100+cities

Launch

Nationwide

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Update

MorganStanleyResearch17

AsiaandEuropeaccountedformorethan65%ofChina’svehicleexportsinYTD25

mnunitsChina,Japan,Germany,Koreavehicleexports

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

2019202020212022202320242025

uChinaexportsaJapanexportsuGermanyexportsaKoreaexports

ChinamonthlyPVexport(Kunit)

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

-

Jan-23

Feb-23

Mar-23

Apr-23

May-23

Jun-23

Jul-23

Aug-23

Sep-23

Oct-23

Nov-23

Dec-23

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Dec-24

Jan-25

Feb-25

Mar-25

Apr-25

Top10Chinavehicleexportdestinationin2025(K

units)

Kazakstan

Philippines

UnitedKingdomBelgium BrazilAustralia

SaudiArabia UAERussiaMexico

-1001003005007009002024export2025export

Chinavehicleexportunitbyregion2025

4%

29%

11%

13%

10%

7%

18%8%

AsiaASEANAfricaEurope

RussiaLatinAmericaNorthAmericaOceania

Source:GeneralAdministrationofCustoms,CAAM,MorganStanleyResearch

18

Acceleratingoffshoreexpansion

PlannedCapacity

OEMLocation

Launch

(kunits)

Thailand

2024

100-150

Brazil

2024

100-150

BYDUzbekistan

2024

50

Hungary

2025

TBD

Indonesia

2026

150

Turkey

2026

150

Cambodia

2026

20

BYDtotal

620

GWM

Russia

ThailandBrazil

2019

2021

2024

150

80-120

100

GWMtotal

350

Geely

EgpytBelarus

Malaysia

2012

2017

2017

30

60

250

Geelytotal

340

Indonesia

2017

150

India

2019

80

SAICPakistan

2021

100

Vietnam

2023

60

Thailand

2023

50

SAICtotal

440

Brazil

2014

150

Indonesia

2023

200

CheryMalaysia

2024

30

Argentina

2025

100

Thailand

2025

80

Cherytotal

560

GAC

Thailand

Indonesia

2024

2024

50

100

GACtotal

150

Chang'anThailand

2025

200

Chang'antotal

200

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch

MorganStanleyResearch19

EVgrowthrecovery(2027-2030E)

BEVpenetration

From20%in2027Eto32%in2030E

BEVvolumegrowth

GlobalEVgrowthmaystaysubduedoverthenext12-18months

SlowingEVgrowth(2024-2026E)

From14%in2024Eto17%in2026E

19%CAGR

3%CAGR

Recoversto~5%CAGRamidgrowingEV

collaboration

Recoversabove10%fromhighercapacity

utilizationfromEVcollaboration

30%in2030E

From22%in2027Eto34%in2030E(software-

driven)

NewEVmodelsunderstrategicpartnerships

launching

PHEVvolumegrowth

Capex

ROE

ChinaEVoffshoremarket

share

L3oraboveADASadoption

EVcollaboration

15%CAGR

13%CAGR

LegacyOEMs:deceleratetoflattishCAGR

ChinaOEMs:accelerateamidglobal

expansion

LegacyOEMs:stabilizefromcapitaldiscipline

ChinaOEMs:fallbelow5%amidglobal

expansion

16%in2026E

From12%in2024Eto19%in2026E

(hardware-driven)

Cross-borderEVstrategicpartnerships

forming

Source:MorganStanleyResearchestimates

20

Collaborationisthenewcompetition

Excesscapacity

E/E

architecture

Smartcockpit

Globalsupplychain

0%costsavings

Capital

ADAS

software

generalmotors

30%shorter

evelopmenttime

EVadvocates

Branding

Innovation

Source:MorganStanleyResearch

MorganStanleyResearch21

Ongoingcollaborations

?Software-definedvehicle

?RivianE/Earchitecture

?ManufacturinginEurope

?Leap3.0E/Earchitecture

?XPengG9platform

?Joint-sourcing

?XPengE/Earchitecture

CollaborationArea

generalmotors

?ICE+EV/PV+CV

?Joint-sourcing(batteries,steel,andothers)

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch

22

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Update

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Update

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ImportantRegulatoryDisclosuresonSubjectCompanies

AsofApril30,2025,MorganStanleybeneficiallyowned1%ormoreofaclassofcommonequitysecuritiesofthefollowingcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch:BAICMotor,BrillianceChinaAutomotive,BYDCompanyLimited,DongfengMotorGroup,EHangHoldingsLtd,FuyaoGlassIndustryGroup,GeelyAutomobileHoldings,GuangzhouAutomobileGroup,HesaiGroup,LiAutoInc.,NingboXushengGroupCoLtd,NIOInc.,XPengInc.,ZhejiangSanhuaIntelligentControls,ZhengzhouYutongBusCo.

Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleymanagedorco-managedapublicoffering(or144Aoffering)ofsecuritiesofHorizonRobotics,N