INCOSE 2006.ppt.ppt

1、COCOMO SCORMInteractive Courseware Project Cost Modeling,Roger Smith & Lacey Edwards SPARTA Inc. Orlando, Florida and Lacey.E,COCOMO-SCORM Project: Proposed Solution,“Every complex project requires project managers and sponsors to calculate the expected level of effort, duration, and cost of the pro

2、ject. Developing web-based content to the Sharable Content Object Reference Model (SCORM) is complex enough that an algorithm is necessary to assist both the government and developers in estimating the size of the project. SPARTA and Anteon propose to create an interactive courseware estimation tool

3、 based on widely used Instructional Systems Design (ISD) methodologies and on the principles contained in the well-established and widely accepted COCOMO II model for software project estimation.”,Proposed Technical Concept:,Interactive Courseware Estimation Tool,Development and Test Cost Estimates,

4、COCOMO ISD,Project Description,Create an interactive project estimation tool for ISD/SCORM content Algorithmic foundation for the tool is the COCOMO II algorithm developed for software projects by the research team at the University of Southern California and led by Barry Boehm ISD methodology estim

5、ated will be the ADDIE model developed at Florida State University and adopted by the U.S. Armed Services Resulting algorithm and tools will estimate the person-months required to create a SCORM conformant learning product Dollar costs can be derived outside of the model by applying industry or spec

6、ific company labor rates,COCOMO Model Family,COQUALMO 1998,COCOMO 81 1981,COPROMO 1998,COSoSIMO 2004,Legend: Model has been calibrated with historical project data and expert (Delphi) data Model is derived from COCOMO II Model has been calibrated with expert (Delphi) data,COCOTS 2000,COSYSMO 2002,CO

7、RADMO 1999,iDAVE 2003,COPLIMO 2003,COPSEMO 1998,COCOMO II 2000,DBA COCOMO 2004,COINCOMO 2004,Security Extension 2004,Costing Secure System 2004,Software Cost Models,Software Extensions,Other Independent Estimation Models,Dates indicate the time that the first paper was published for the model,COCOMO

8、 II Tool Example,Users Perspective,COCOMO II Modeling Methodology,ADDIE Process,Job/Task Analysis Needs Analysis Learning Analysis Situation Analysis Technical Analysis,Design Plan Instructional Media Design Report SCORM Plan,Storyboards Programming Multimedia Testing,Trials Pilot tests,Reliability

9、Validation Training Plan,COSCOMO Drivers(27 Input Variables),Size Source Lines of Code (SLOC) Design Modification (DM) Code Modification (CM) Integration (IM) Assessment (AA) Understanding (SU) Unfamiliarity (UNFAM) Scale Drivers Development Flexibility (FLEX) Process Maturity (PMAT) Precedentedness

10、 (PREC) Arch/Risk Resolution (RESL) Team Cohesion (TEAM) Product Effort Multipliers (EM) Required Reliability (RELY) Product Complexity (CPLX) Required Reuse (RUSE) Documentation (DOCU),Platform EM Platform Volatility (PVOL) Bandwidth (BAND) Personnel EM Senior Capability (SCAP) Developer Capability

11、 (DCAP) Personnel Continuity (PCON) Applications Experience (APEX) Platform Experience (PLEX) Development Tools Experience (DTEX) Project EM Lifecycle Tools (LIFE) Multisite Development (SITE) Required Development Schedule (SCED),Quantitative Size Variables,EM Effect on Project,Course Hours,Project

12、Cost,15 Effort Multipliers Set to Nominal,Qualitative Project Variables,Nominal/Standard Levels,Effort Multipliers,Scale Drivers,EM Effect on Project,Course Hours,Nom. Cost,15 Effort Multipliers Other Than Nominal,Est. Cost,Data Collection Form,(see Excel file for entire form),COSCOMO Estimates,* Su

13、rvey was not completed. All remaining variables were estimated.,Defense Nuclear Weapons School,Building PRED(30) for COSCOMO,0%,% Variance of Estimated Value,-30%,+30%,Total Project Cost (PM),DNWS -3.8%,EHA -20%,ALC +333%,6,24,78,Reliability = PRED(30),Reliability of COCOMO family of models is often

14、 measured by the percentage of test cases that it will estimate within 30% of the actual project costs e.g. If a project requires 300 person-months to complete, then its PRED(30) range would be (210 to 390) If the model estimates 70% of its test cases within this range then the models PRED(30) = 70%

15、 COCOMO Family Model Levels COCOMO II: PRED(30) = 64% COSYSMO: PRED(30) = 56% COSCOMO: PRED(30) = unknown at this time,Delphi Calibration Survey,Using Delphi Method to gather independent opinions about the level of effort associated with each setting on each variable. Collect individual responses Ca

16、lculate group average Present averages to each person and allow them to change their responses if they would like Convene group work session to settle on acceptable values Round 1 of Delphi Conducted Via Private Survey Round 2 Conducted in Seminar Form,Conclusion,COCOMO II has been modified to inclu

17、de variables that are important to SCORM courseware developers Variable weights are being adjusted by Delphi surveys of experts Model is being calibrated through the collection of historical project information Current results show that this approach is feasible It is to early to determine the degree of success that