國(guó)際貿(mào)易對(duì)碳減排協(xié)議的促進(jìn)作用——理論框架及減排意愿的數(shù)值一般均衡情景模擬_第1頁(yè)
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1、國(guó)際貿(mào)易對(duì)碳減排協(xié)議的促進(jìn)作用理論框架及減排意愿的數(shù)值一般均衡情景模擬第36卷第11期財(cái)經(jīng)研究Vol 36No 112010年11月JournalofFinanceandEconomicsNov.2010 國(guó)際貿(mào)易對(duì)碳減排協(xié)議的促進(jìn)作用* ?a name=baidusnap84?#0046994?#0046994?蔡躍洲1,JohnWhalley2(1 ?#0046994?,?100732;2 ?,?London,N6A5C2) ? ?:全球碳減排談判是具有外部性特征的多方合作博弈b文章首先構(gòu)建一個(gè)單一商品無貿(mào)易多國(guó)模型,對(duì)各國(guó)的碳減排意愿進(jìn)行刻畫,利用相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)不同情景下的各國(guó)碳減排意愿進(jìn)行

2、數(shù)值一般均衡模擬;在此基礎(chǔ)上,將國(guó)際貿(mào)易因素引入模型,重新對(duì)各國(guó)的減排意愿進(jìn)行情景模擬b數(shù)值模擬結(jié)果表明:(1)經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模越大,全球變暖持續(xù)的時(shí)間跨度越長(zhǎng),溫度上升帶來的效用損失越大,各國(guó)單方面減排意愿越強(qiáng);(2)國(guó)際貿(mào)易的存在更有利于各國(guó)碳減排意愿的提高,因?yàn)楦鲊?guó)通過減產(chǎn)實(shí)現(xiàn)減排的同時(shí),其貿(mào)易條件得到改善,從而將減產(chǎn)帶來的效用損失部分轉(zhuǎn)嫁到其他各國(guó);(3)當(dāng)前,假借碳減排之名而抬頭的新貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義不僅無法促進(jìn)各國(guó)碳減排,反而將阻礙全球碳減排協(xié)議的達(dá)成b ?:減排意愿;國(guó)際貿(mào)易;數(shù)值均衡模擬 ?:F205;F74 ?:A?:1001 9952(2010)11 0004 12?a? ? ?,?b2

3、009?12?#0046994?#0046994 ?!a ?!?#0046994?,?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?,?b?,?,?#0046994#?#?#0046994?#b ?#0046994?,?#0046994?#?#0046994?b?,?#0046994#?,?#0046994?,?#0046994?b?#0046994?,?#?#0046994?#0046994?,?#0046994?#0046994?b?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?#?,?#0046994#?#?#0046994?#0046994?,?#0046994?b?,

4、?#0046994?:2010 08 27?#0046994?:?(1975-),?,?,?#0046994?#0046994;JohnWhalley(1947-),?,?,?b?4?aJohnWhalley:?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?b?a?#0046994#?#0046994? ?#0046994?b?,?#0046994?,?#0046994?#0046994?;?,?#0046994?,?#0046994b?,?#0046994?#0046994?b?,?#0046994?#?#004

5、6994?b ?#0046994?#?#0046994?,?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?%(core)?bScarf(1960)?#0046994?,?bShapley?Shubik(1969)?,?,?#0046994?;?(smeltinggame)#?#0046994?#0046994?#?,?#0046994?#?#0046994?b?,Barrett(1994)aBotteon?Carraro(1997)aChen(1997)aUzawa(1999)?,?#0046994?#?#0046994?,?#0046994?,?#0046994?#0046994?b

6、 Barrett(1994)?#0046994?#?b?,Barrett(1994)?#0046994?#0046994?#?,?#0046994?,?b?,?b?#0046994?Barrett(1994)?,?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?,?#0046994?;?,?#0046994?#0046994?,?b Botteon?Carraro(1997)?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?,?#0046994?#0046994?b?,Botteon?Carraro(1997)?#a?#a?#a?#0046994?#a?#0046

7、994?#?,?b?#0046994?,?#0046994,?#0046994?#0046994?b?Barrett(1994)?b Shapley?Shubik(1969)?#0046994?#0046994?bUzawa(1999)?,?(?),?,?bChen(1997)?,?#0046994?bChen(1997)?,?,?#0046994?#0046994?#?#0046994?#0046994?#?b ?#0046994?,?&?,?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?b?#0046994?#0046994b?5?2010?11?:?#0046994?,?

8、#0046994?,?b?,?#0046994?#0046994?,?#0046994?b?,?#0046994?,?#0046994?b ?#0046994?,?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?,?#0046994?#0046994?,?#0046994?bChen(1997)aUzawa(1999)?#0046994?,?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?b?#0046994?,?#0046994?#0046994?b?Chen(1997)aUzawa(1999)?,?,?#0046994?#0046994?#0

9、046994?b?#0046994?:?,?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?#,?#0046994?,?#0046994(?a?)?(?a?#0046994?a?#0046994?#0046994?)2006?,?#0046994?#0046994?b?#0046994?#0046994?,?#0046994?#0046994#,?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?(Armingtontrademodel)?#0046994?b?#0046994?#0046994?,?#0046994?#00469

10、94?,?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?b?a?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994? (?)?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?b?:(1)?N?,?#0046994,?#0046994?(?30?50)?;(2)?(?)?#0046994?;(3)?#0046994?,?;(4)?,?#0046994?,?;(5)?t?#0046994?:?t?,?#0046994?#0046994?#;?t?b ?,?#0046994,?#0046994?t?(?)?a?b

11、?,?a?t?#0046994?#?#?,?#0046994?:(1)?(?)?,? Ri?#0046994?i?t?#0046994?#;(2)?#?#?#0046994 Ri? R?#0046994?,? Ri? Ri? R=?6?aJohnWhalley:?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?( Ri;(3)?,? T?#0046994?t?, T? R?#0046994,? T?;(4)?,? Ui?#0046994?#, Ui? Ri?#0046994a? T?b?,?,? Ria Uia R?a?b ?#0046994?,? ?: Ui= Ui( Ri, T)=

12、R i)(C- T)/C (1) ?:C?#0046994? T?(?10?),? T?#0046994,?b?,? T?C?#0046994,? Ui?;? T?#0046994,? Ui?b a ?a?,?#0046994?b ? T?t?#0046994?,?#0046994?#0046994b?,?#0046994? T?#0046994?:? T=g(ei Ri)=a(ei Rbi)+c(2) ?:ei?#0046994?,?GDP?#0046994?b?,?#0046994?,?#0046994?:?,?#0046994?(1),?#0046994?,?#0046994;?,?#0

13、046994?(2),?#0046994,?b?#0046994?#0046994?,?#0046994?#0046994b?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?,?#0046994?b?#0046994?,?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?b?,?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?b?#0046994?,?#0046994?#0046994?#?,?#0046994?#?#0046994:d Ui Ui( Ri, T) Ui( Ri, T) T =d Ri R+i T R?0(3)i ?d Ui/d Ri?#0046994,?#00

14、46994?,? ?,?(3)?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?(4):d Ui 1T = C-d RR -1 t-C R C- -TiCabei(ei Rb-1i)?0(4)iC (?)?#0046994?b?(1)?(4)?#0046994?b?a?a?a?a?#0046994?a?#0046994?a?#0046994?,?#0046994?2006-2056?50?,?#0046994?#?;?2000-2006?GDP?50?#0046994?#,?50?1 5%,?2006-2056? Ri(?GDP?)?b?Stern(2006)aMendelsohn(20

15、07)?7?2010?11?,?#0046994?#0046994?,?#0046994?(1)a?(2)?#0046994?b?#0046994?,?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?1%?(?)?,?;?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?,?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?(?#0046994)?b?#00469942006?GDP?a2000-2006?a2004?#0046994?,?Stern(2006)aMendelsohn(2007)?,?#004

16、6994?#0046994?#?(2)?aabac?#0046994?;?#0046994?#0046994?#?#0046994?#0046994?(?)?#0046994?,?#0046994?#0046994? ? ?b?,?2004?#0046994?,?#0046994?b?#0046994?,?#0046994?2006?#0046994?b?,Stern(2006)?:?#0046994?#?,?2036?2?,?2056?5+?,?#0046994? T?b?#0046994?#00469941b?#00469941 GDPa?#0046994?2036?2056?(?:?;1

17、0?;?/?;%)? ?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?GDP444 068 2 254 0 667 0 5920 6648 04841 590(2004?11 71213 0)?#0046994?(2004?6 0503 8411 2585 0091 3431 5250 3327 88027 241)?#0046994?5170 2940 2732 2222 0122 5770 5000 9790 655(2004?0 )GDP 16410 6364 3682 6450 9120 9871 06714 682(2006?13)?#0046994?3 1321 1935

18、8771 8352 5440 53414 37636 289(2006?6 800)GDP?2 6571 9561 6529 5686 8336 7453 1043 662?1 5%?1 1170 4260 1277 9245 2305 1441 5572 107GDP?GDP94313 1584 656119 76311 66612 1202 31141 641228 258(2056?22 )?#0046994?11 8513 8741 271266 14023 47431 2381 15640 771379 774(2056?)GDP0341 074133 673318 87966 32

19、770 67341 055618 453(2006-2036?471 31)?#0046994?4606 46?39 730 715532 30878 416105 5384 515174 270941 996(2006-203)GDP77225 6691595 092216 377227 56781 1311306 574(2006-2056?885 060593 8)?#0046994?2731 9783250 796343 635459 33013 879560 5114765 585(2006-2056?117 18318 ) ?:(1)GDP?WorldDevelopmentIndi

20、cators?;(2)2004?#0046994?Listofcountriesbycarbondioxideemissions;(3)?,?11?13?#0046994?#0046994?#?#?#0046994?b?8?aJohnWhalley:?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994? ?#00469941?3?#0046994?#0046994?ei?#00469942004?GDP?#0046994?b2006?#0046994?#0046994?GDP?#0046994?ei?b?6?2000-2006?#0046994?2006-2056?#0046994?#?;?

21、7?6?1 5%?#0046994?;?8?#0046994?2006?GDP?7?2056?#0046994GDP(?)?;?9?#0046994?,?#0046994?8?3?2056?#0046994?;?10?13?2006-2036?a2006-2056?#0046994?GDP?#0046994?b?#00469941?2006?a2006-2036?a2006-2056?#0046994?0?a2?a5?#0046994?(2)?aabac?#0046994?#0046994?: 0=a(36 289-36 289b)+c(5)b 2=a(941 996)+c(6)b 5=a(4

22、765 585)+c(7) ?aabac?0 0417a0 5652?0?#0046994?(2): T=g(ei Ri)=0 0417(ei R0 5652i)(8) ?#0046994? ? b? ?,? a ?1bStern(2006)aMendelsohn(2007)?#0046994?#?GDP?#0046994?b?#0046994?GDP?#0046994?#0046994,?#0046994?b?#0046994?,?#0046994?#?#0046994?GDP?5%,?GDP?#0046994,?#0046994?49 5%b,?#0046994?,?#0046994?#0

23、046994?b?#0046994?Stern(2006)?,?(1)? T?5?,?C?10?b?#0046994?#00469942b?#00469942 ?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994(%) ?#0046994(%) 50 92600 0740450 13750 8625100 84800 1520460 11100 8890200 67810 3219470 08410 9159300 48540 5146480 05660 9434350 37850 6215490 02860 971437 50 32190 678149 50 01440 9856400 2

24、6300 7370?a?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994? ?#0046994?#0046994?b?#0046994?1%?,?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?b?#0046994?#0046994?2006-2056,?#0046994?(?)?b?#0046994?,?#0046994?9?2010?11?#0046994?#0046994?b?#0046994,?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?b ?#0046994?#0046994?#?#0046994?#0046994?#00469

25、94?,?#0046994?#0046994?,?#00469945%?49 5%?13?,?#0046994?,?#00469943b?#00469943 ?#0046994?#0046994?1%?(2006-2056?)?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?#0046994?5%-5 2138-3 8625-1 7368-7 9374-1 2979-1 3590-0 5584-7 153110%-2 9634-2 4374-1 3090-3 7493-0 7514-0 7831-0 3742-3 760620%-0 8376-0 8660-0 6849-0 6795-0

26、 2206-0 2273-0 1516-0 892830%-0 1837-0 2469-0 3032-0 0759-0 0501-0 0508-0 0501-0 158335%-0 0740-0 1155-0 1811-0 0158-0 0204-0 0204-0 0255-0 055837 5%-0 0443-0 0749-0 1337-0 0044-0 0123-0 0121-0 0173-0 030840%-0 0250-0 0461-0 09440 0009-0 0069-0 0067-0 0111-0 015845%-0 0058-0 0132-0 03610 0032-0 0015-0 0013-0 0035-0 002546%-0 0039-0 0093-0 02730 0031-0 0009-0 0008-0 0025-0 001347%-0 0024-0 0062-0 01930 0029-0 0005-0 0004-0 0017-0 000548%-0 0012-0 0036-0 01210 0026-0 0002-0 0001-0 00100 000149%-0 0004-0 0015-0 00570 00240 00010 0002-0 0

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