aging_population

1、POPULATION AGING IN CHINA 中國(guó)人口老化中國(guó)人口老化 Zeng Yi 曾曾 毅毅 Center for Study of Aging and Human Development, Duke University Center for Healthy Aging and Family Studies/ China Center for Economic Research, Peking University U.N. Projection: RAPID PROCESS OF POPULATION AGING IN CHINA 聯(lián)合國(guó)的預(yù)測(cè)聯(lián)合國(guó)的預(yù)測(cè): 中國(guó)人口快速老齡化

2、中國(guó)人口快速老齡化 Much Faster Increase in Proportion of Elderly Persons than in Developed Countries中國(guó)老年人口占總?cè)丝诘谋壤鲩L(zhǎng)速度大大快于發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家中國(guó)老年人口占總?cè)丝诘谋壤鲩L(zhǎng)速度大大快于發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家 Figure 1. Number of Years It Takes for the Elderly Population Aged 65+ to Increase from 10% to 20% 65+歲老人占總?cè)丝诒壤龔臍q老人占總?cè)丝诒壤龔?0%增加到增加到20%的年數(shù)的年數(shù) Extremely Rapid I

3、ncrease of “Oldest Old” Persons 高齡老人增長(zhǎng)速度更快 Figure 2. International comparison of average annual increase rates (%) of elderly populations 老年人口年增長(zhǎng)率的國(guó)際比較老年人口年增長(zhǎng)率的國(guó)際比較中國(guó)家庭人口與老齡化預(yù)測(cè)中國(guó)家庭人口與老齡化預(yù)測(cè) Projection of family households, elderly living arrangements and population aging, using ProFamy Medium fertili

4、ty scenario assumptions 中生育率假定方案中生育率假定方案:（1）In 2000, rural TFR was 1.9, Urban TFR was 1.15, and overall TFR was 1.63; 2000年農(nóng)村、城鎮(zhèn)時(shí)期總和生育率分別為年農(nóng)村、城鎮(zhèn)時(shí)期總和生育率分別為1.9與與1.15，城鄉(xiāng)合一為，城鄉(xiāng)合一為1.63.（2）In 2012-2030, assume cohort life-time TFR will be 2.27 and 1.8 in rural and urban areas, respectively. 2012-2030年期間年期

5、間, 假定農(nóng)村、城鎮(zhèn)隊(duì)列終生總和生育率分別為假定農(nóng)村、城鎮(zhèn)隊(duì)列終生總和生育率分別為2.27與與1.8。 (3) In the period of 2012-2030, mean age at 1st, 2nd and 3rd births will increase 0.9 year-old, i.e. increasing 0.05 year-old per year, and thus the period TFR will be reduced by 5% as compared to cohort TFR, according to Bongaarts-Feneey method -

6、Period TFR will be 2.16 and 1.71 in rural and urban area. 假定假定2012-2030年這年這18年內(nèi)，一孩、二孩和三孩平均生育年齡分別增加年內(nèi)，一孩、二孩和三孩平均生育年齡分別增加0.9歲歲,平均每年增加平均每年增加0.05歲。時(shí)期總和生育率減少歲。時(shí)期總和生育率減少5%, 農(nóng)村、城鎮(zhèn)分別為農(nóng)村、城鎮(zhèn)分別為2.16和和1.71 (4) In the period 2035-2050, no increase in mean age at childbearing, and thus the period and cohort TFR w

7、ill be the same: 2.27 and 1.8 in rural and urban areas, respectively. 2035-2050年生育年齡不再增加，時(shí)期總和生育率與隊(duì)列終生總和生育率相同年生育年齡不再增加，時(shí)期總和生育率與隊(duì)列終生總和生育率相同, 農(nóng)村、城鎮(zhèn)分別為農(nóng)村、城鎮(zhèn)分別為2.27和和1.8We assume % of urban population will be 36%, 55% and 75% in 2000, 2020, and 2050, respectively; We also assume the age distribution of t

8、he rural-urban migrants will be the same as that observed in the 2000 census.假定假定2020年與年與2050年城鎮(zhèn)人口比例為年城鎮(zhèn)人口比例為55%與與75%（2000年為年為36%），并假定），并假定2000-2050年農(nóng)村向城鎮(zhèn)遷移人口年齡分布與年農(nóng)村向城鎮(zhèn)遷移人口年齡分布與2000年人口普查得到的模式相同。年人口普查得到的模式相同。20002012203020352050Period TFR城鄉(xiāng)合一時(shí)期總和生育率城鄉(xiāng)合一時(shí)期總和生育率1.631.951.881.961.92Weighted average TFR

9、 of rural-urban combined (using % of rural and urban as weights)城鄉(xiāng)合一總和生育率假定城鄉(xiāng)合一總和生育率假定Note: figures in the parenthesis are the TFR adjusted for the effects of increasing mean age at birth, by Bongaarts-Feeney method 括號(hào)中的數(shù)字是排除生育年齡增加影響之后的總和生育率。括號(hào)中的數(shù)字是排除生育年齡增加影響之后的總和生育率。Medium mortality assumption is t

10、he same as our previous work which is very similar to the medium assumption made by U.N. and other scholars.中死亡率方案假定與我們以前做的相同，中死亡率方案假定與我們以前做的相同，與聯(lián)合國(guó)及其他學(xué)者的中死亡率方案十分接近。與聯(lián)合國(guó)及其他學(xué)者的中死亡率方案十分接近。The medium fertility projection is NOT policy prediction, and it is just my scholarly analysis to project the like

11、ly profile of population aging, family households, and elderly living arrangements, under medium fertility assumption. 我們這里簡(jiǎn)要報(bào)告的中生育率方案完全是本人對(duì)未來(lái)人口老齡化大致趨勢(shì)我們這里簡(jiǎn)要報(bào)告的中生育率方案完全是本人對(duì)未來(lái)人口老齡化大致趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)模擬的學(xué)術(shù)研究初步成果。預(yù)測(cè)模擬的學(xué)術(shù)研究初步成果。 Necessity for establishing old age insurance program in Rural areas in China 建立農(nóng)村儲(chǔ)備積累式社會(huì)

12、養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度的必要性。建立農(nóng)村儲(chǔ)備積累式社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度的必要性?！癏aving a son for old age support” is one of the main causes of illegal sex determination before delivery, sex-selective abortion, maltreatment, abandonment, and female infanticide. 很多農(nóng)民利用很多農(nóng)民利用B超進(jìn)行非法性別鑒定，不生男孩不罷休的最主要超進(jìn)行非法性別鑒定，不生男孩不罷休的最主要原因之一是原因之一是“養(yǎng)兒防老養(yǎng)兒防老”。(1)Rapid

13、Increase of % and Huge Number of Elderly in China 快速的老年人口增長(zhǎng)率與龐大的老年人口數(shù)量快速的老年人口增長(zhǎng)率與龐大的老年人口數(shù)量(2) Aging Problems will be More Serious in Rural Areas than that in Urban Areas 農(nóng)村地區(qū)的老齡化問(wèn)題將比城市地區(qū)更嚴(yán)重。農(nóng)村地區(qū)的老齡化問(wèn)題將比城市地區(qū)更嚴(yán)重。The rural baby boomers born in 1950s and 1960s likely have two children or only one child.

14、 When they become old or oldest old, many of their children left villages; some of their children will be elderly or getting old. 農(nóng)村出生高峰隊(duì)列有兩個(gè)或僅有一個(gè)孩子。當(dāng)他們步入老農(nóng)村出生高峰隊(duì)列有兩個(gè)或僅有一個(gè)孩子。當(dāng)他們步入老年或高齡階段，他們的孩子很多已經(jīng)離開(kāi)農(nóng)村，還有一部分高年或高齡階段，他們的孩子很多已經(jīng)離開(kāi)農(nóng)村，還有一部分高齡老人的子女也已經(jīng)進(jìn)入老年。齡老人的子女也已經(jīng)進(jìn)入老年。 It is not feasible for the Chinese el

15、derly to entirely rely on their children and family for old age support in both rural and urban areas. 無(wú)論在農(nóng)村還是城市，中國(guó)老年人想完全依賴他們的子女無(wú)論在農(nóng)村還是城市，中國(guó)老年人想完全依賴他們的子女和家庭養(yǎng)老是不可行的。和家庭養(yǎng)老是不可行的。Old Age Insurance Program in Rural Areas is Extremely Important for Sustainable Development in China. 農(nóng)村養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度對(duì)中國(guó)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展極為重要農(nóng)村

16、養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度對(duì)中國(guó)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展極為重要Provides basic right and elementary life quality to rural elderly: equality and stability of the society. 考慮到農(nóng)村老人的基本權(quán)利和生活質(zhì)量：社會(huì)的平等與穩(wěn)定。考慮到農(nóng)村老人的基本權(quán)利和生活質(zhì)量：社會(huì)的平等與穩(wěn)定。Can effectively reduce son-preference, reduce sex-selective abortions and reverse the extremely dangerous trend of increa

17、sing sex ratio at birth. 可以有效的減少兒子偏好，減少基于性別選擇的人工流產(chǎn)，扭轉(zhuǎn)可以有效的減少兒子偏好，減少基于性別選擇的人工流產(chǎn)，扭轉(zhuǎn)出生性別比不斷增長(zhǎng)的危險(xiǎn)趨勢(shì)。出生性別比不斷增長(zhǎng)的危險(xiǎn)趨勢(shì)。Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Study (CLHLS) The total sample size in 1998 and 2000 was 8,959 and 11,161 oldest-old aged 80+;The total sample sizes in 2002 and 2005 are about 20,000

18、 interviewees, respectively, including oldest-old (focus), younger elderly (as a comparison group) and elders adult children (intergenerational relations and healthy longevity). The CLHLS surveys were conducted in randomly selected half of the counties and cities of 22 provinces out of 31 provinces

19、in 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2005 covering 85% of total population. Totalling in the 1998, 2000, 2002, 2005 four waves, face-to-face interviews were conducted with: 10,879 aged 100+; 13,985 aged 90-99; 16,505 aged 80-89; 9,731 aged 65-79 At each wave, the longitudinal survivors were re-interviewed, and

20、the deceased interviewees were replaced by additional participants. In the 2000, 2002, 2005 follow-up waves, data on mortality and health status before dying for the 12,136 elders aged 65-112 who died between the waves were collected in interviews with a close family member of the deceased. We also interviewed (with following-up) 4,478 elderly interview