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1、What have been the trends and what are theprospects for European transport systemsA It is difficult to conceive of vigorous economic growth without an efficient transport system. Although modern information technologies can reduce the demand for physical transport by facilitating teleworking and tel
2、eservices, the requirement for transport continues to increase. There are two key factors behind this trend. For passenger transport, the determining factor is the spectacular growth in car use. The number of cars on European Union (EU) roadssaw an increase of three million cars each year from 1990
3、to 2010, and in the next decade the EU will see afurther substantial increase in its fleet.(Facts: Therapid growth of car transport even with deve. Of tech)B As far as goods transport is concerned, growthis due to a large extent to changes in the European economy and its system of production. In the
4、 last 20 years, asinternal frontiers have been abolished, the EU has moved from astock economy to a flow economy. This phenomenon has been emphasised by the relocation of soma industries, particularly those which are labour intensive, to reduce productioncosts, even though the production site is hun
5、dredsor even thousands of kilometres away from the finalassembly plant or away from users.(Facts:Changes affecting the distances goods may be transferred)C The strong economic growth expected in countrieswhich are candidates for entry to the EU will alsoincrease transport flows , in particular road
6、haulagetraffic . In 1998, some of these countries alreadyexported more than twice their 1990 volumes andimported more than five times their 1990 volumes.And although many candidate countries inherited atransport system which encourages rail, thedistribution between modes has tipped sharply infavour
7、of road transport since the 1990s. Between1990 and 1998, road haulage increased by 19. 4%,while during the same period rail haulagedecreased by 43. 5%, although-and this could benefitthe enlarged EU-it is still on average at a muchhigher level than in existing member states.(Facts: Transport trends
8、incountries awaiting EU admission)D However a newimperative -sustainable development-offers an opportunity for adapting the EUs common transport policy. This objective, agreed by the Gothenburg European Council, has to be achieved by integrating environmental considerations into Community policies,
9、and shifting the balance between modes of transport lies ideally be in place in 30 years time, that is by 2040.(Example: A fresh and important long-term goal of rebalance)E In 1998, energy consumption in the transport sector was to blame for 28% of emissions of CO2the leading greenhouse gas. Accordi
10、ng to the latest estimates, if nothing is done to reverse the traffic growth trend. C02 emissions from transport can be expected to increase by around 50% to 1, 113 billion tonnes by 2020, compared with the 739 billion tonnes recorded in 1990. once again,road transport is the main culprit since it a
11、lone accounts for 84% of the C02 emissions attributable to transport. Using alternative fuels and improving energy efficiency is thus both an ecological necessity and a technological challenge.(Facts and Data: Theenvironment cost of road transport)F At the same time greater efforts must be made to a
12、chieve a modal shift. Such a change cannot be achieved overnight, all the less so after over half a century of constant deterioration in favour of road. This has reached such a pitch that todayrail freight services are facing marginalisation, with just 8% of market share, and with international good
13、s trains struggling along at an average speed of 18km/h. Three possible options have emerged.(Facts and data: The dying of rail freight)G The first approach would consist of focusing on road transport solely through pricing . This option would not be accompanied by complementary measures in the othe
14、r modes of transport. In the short term it might curb the growth in road transport through the better loading ratio of goods vehicles and occupancy rates of passenger vehicles expected as a result of the increase in the price of transport. However the lack of measures available to revitalise other m
15、odes of transport would make it impossiblefor more sustainable modes of transport to take up the baton(接力 ).(Approach: First approach to adjust the price:Charging policy alone)H The second approach also concentrates on road transport. pricing but is accompanied by measures to increase the efficiency
16、 of the other modes (better quality of services, logistics, technology). However this approach does not include investment in new infrastructure, nor does it guarantee better regional cohesion. It could help to achieve greateruncoupling than the first approach, but road transport would keep the lion
17、s share of the market and continue to concentrate on saturated arteries, despite being the most polluting of the modes. It is therefore not enough to guarantee the necessary shift of the balance.(Second approach to increase efficiency whilecharging for roads)I The third approach, which is not new,co
18、mprises a series of measures ranging from pricing to revitalising alternative modes of transport and targeting investment in the trans-European network. This integrated approach would allow the market shares of the other modes to return to their 1998 levels and thus make a shift of balance. It is far more ambitious than it looks, bearing in mind the h
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