集團(tuán)財(cái)務(wù)模型底稿

1、公司名稱：一汽轎車000800主營業(yè)務(wù)收入 (萬元 )2001 A2002 A2003 1Q2003 2Q2003 3Q2003 4Q E整車289,279.55421,268.64114,451.42187,774.39301,439.78285,814.02紅旗114,451.4268,523.00101,225.0060,325.00MAZDA-119,251.39200,214.78225,489.02備件55,247.3754,289.5211,286.6713,292.2814,314.8715,746.36合計(jì)344,526.92475,558.16125,738.09201,0

2、66.67315,754.65301,560.38主營業(yè)務(wù)成本 (萬元 )2001 A2002 A2003 1Q2003 2Q2003 3Q2003 4Q E整車244,971.40332,297.7484,644.04142,643.37232,525.32215,307.75紅旗84,644.0457,163.1987,821.5852,337.24MAZDA-85,480.18144,703.74162,970.51備件46,785.2842,823.7115,470.282,788.9510,767.6011,844.36合計(jì)291,756.68375,121.45100,114.32

3、145,432.32243,292.92227,152.11主營業(yè)務(wù)成本/ 收入 (%)2001 A2002 A2003 1Q2003 2Q2003 3Q整車84.68%78.88%73.96%75.97%77.14%紅旗73.96%83.42%86.76%MAZDA-71.68%72.27%備件84.68%78.88%137.07%20.98%75.22%合計(jì)84.68%78.88%79.62%72.33%77.05%毛利 (萬元 )2001 A2002 A2003 1Q2003 2Q2003 3Q2003 4Q E整車44,308.1588,970.9029,807.3845,131.02

4、68,914.4670,506.28紅旗29,807.3811,359.8113,403.427,987.76MAZDA-33,771.2155,511.0462,518.51備件8,462.0911,465.81-4,183.6110,503.333,547.273,902.00合計(jì)52,770.24100,436.7125,623.7755,634.3572,461.7374,408.27毛利率 (%)2001 A2002 A2003 1Q2003 2Q2003 3Q整車15.32%21.12%26.04%24.03%22.86%紅旗26.04%16.58%13.24%MAZDA-28.3

5、2%27.73%備件15.32%21.12%-37.07%79.02%24.78%合計(jì)15.32%21.12%20.38%27.67%22.95%整車銷售數(shù)量 (輛)2002 A2003 E2004 E2005 E2006 E2007 E紅旗26,55726,00024,00024,00024,00024,000銷售量增長 (%)-2.1%-7.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%MAZDA-24,00050,00065,00081,250101,563銷售量增長 (%)-108.3%30.0%25.0%25.0%合計(jì)26,55750,00074,00089,000105,250125,563銷售量增

6、長 (%)-88.3%48.0%20.3%18.3%19.3%主營業(yè)務(wù)收入2002 A2003 E2004 E2005 E2006 E2007 E整車421,268.64889,479.611,364,777.441,519,510.131,651,489.291,805,761.80紅旗421,268.64344,524.42286,220.29257,598.26231,838.43208,654.59MAZDA0.00544,955.191,078,557.151,261,911.871,419,650.851,597,107.21備件54,289.5254,640.1859,694.3

7、965,216.1271,248.6277,839.11合計(jì)475,558.16944,119.791,424,471.841,584,726.251,722,737.901,883,600.91主營業(yè)務(wù)收入增長-98.53%50.88%11.25%8.71%9.34%(%)主營業(yè)務(wù)成本/ 收入 (%)2002 A2003 E2004 E2005 E2006 E2007 E整車84.68%75.90%紅旗84.68%81.84%81.84%81.84%81.84%81.84%MAZDA-72.14%72.14%72.14%72.14%72.14%備件84.68%74.80%74.80%74.8

8、0%74.80%74.80%合計(jì)84.68%75.84%74.20%73.83%73.56%73.33%2003 1Q2003 2Q2003 3Q2003 4Q E紅旗7,8055,2718,0984,82614.6613.0012.5012.5010.8410.8410.8410.84MAZDA05,2878,8019,912-22.5622.7522.75-16.1716.4416.44整車銷售數(shù)量 (輛)2003012003 022003 032003 042003 052003 06紅旗3,0161,9872,8021,7011,2112,359銷售量增長 (%)-34.1%41.0%

9、-39.3%-28.8%94.8%MAZDA0009441,8722,471銷售量增長 (%)-98.3%32.0%合計(jì)2,6453,0834,830銷售量增長 (%)-#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!16.6%56.7%圖： 2003 年馬自達(dá) M6、紅旗月銷售量4000350034703000301629573169280227902839250026752469紅2471235920001987187218951500170112111000944500MAZDA0000200320032003200320032003200320032003200301020304050607

10、080910轎車價(jià)格10萬以下10-15萬15-20萬20萬以上2002年市場占有率20.90%37.60%18.40%22.30%0.2230.20910萬以下10-15 萬0.18410-15 萬15-20 萬20萬以上0.3762001 A2002 A2003 1H應(yīng)收帳款 + 其他應(yīng)收款43,30237,56637,339三年以上款項(xiàng)8,78419,72920,638三年以上款項(xiàng)比例 (%)20.3%52.5%55.3%三年以上款項(xiàng)壞帳準(zhǔn)備3,7238,9769,247壞帳準(zhǔn)備 / 應(yīng)收款 (%)42.4%45.5%44.8%2001 A2002 A2003 1H存貨 - 產(chǎn)成品40,

11、40368,38167,352產(chǎn)成品跌價(jià)準(zhǔn)備4702,3672,337產(chǎn)成品跌價(jià)準(zhǔn)備比例1.16%3.46%3.47%市凈率ROE凈利率資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率權(quán)益乘數(shù)600104上海汽車3.5914.84%27.01%0.461.28927一汽夏利4.8916.49%11.82%0.502.87625長安汽車4.5925.43%10.58%1.142.24600006東風(fēng)汽車2.7513.74%9.80%0.771.952004年 M6 銷售量（輛）35,00040,00045,00050,00055,000主營業(yè)務(wù)收入增長率16.6%28.0%39.5%50.9%62.3%凈利潤（萬元）70,01378

12、,36886,72295,077103,432凈利率6.36%6.48%6.59%6.67%6.75%EPS（元）0.4300.4820.5330.5840.636P/E2017161413市場零售價(jià)265,800經(jīng)銷商費(fèi)用10,000主營業(yè)務(wù)收入218,632100.0%增值稅（ 17%）37,168主營業(yè)務(wù)成本161,50073.9%出廠價(jià)218,632主營業(yè)務(wù)稅金及17,4918.0%消費(fèi)稅（ 8%）17,491管理費(fèi)用2,5001.1%進(jìn)口KD件160,000營業(yè)費(fèi)用8,3333.8%國產(chǎn)零部件與組裝1,500利潤28,80913.2%M6主營業(yè)務(wù)收入組成固定成本攤銷2,500廣告費(fèi)用

13、攤銷8,333利潤28,809經(jīng)銷商費(fèi)用10,000增值稅（ 17%）37,168消費(fèi)稅（ 8%）17,491進(jìn)口KD件160,000國產(chǎn)零部件與組裝1,500固定成本攤銷2,500廣告費(fèi)用攤銷8,333利潤28,809M6主營業(yè)務(wù)收入組成3%11%4%0%1%14%7%60%2003 E2003 1-62003 1-9889,479.61302,225.81603,665.59344,524.42544,955.1954,640.1824,578.9538,893.82944,119.79326,804.76642,559.412003 E2003 1-62003 1-9675,120.48

14、227,287.41459,812.73281,966.05393,154.4340,871.1918,259.2329,026.83715,991.67245,546.64488,839.562003 1-62003 1-975.20%76.17%74.29%74.63%75.14%76.08%2003 E2003 1-62003 1-9214,359.1474,938.40143,852.8662,558.37151,800.7713,768.996,319.729,866.99228,128.1281,258.12153,719.852003 1-62003 1-924.80%23.83

15、%25.71%25.37%24.86%23.92%2008 E2003 1-92003 1-1024,00021,17423,0690.0%121,87514,08817,55820.0%145,87535,26240,62716.2%2008 E2003 1-91,912,664.92603,665.59187,789.131,724,875.7985,039.2338,893.821,997,704.15642,559.416.06%2008 E2003 1-981.84%72.14%74.80%73.17%2003 072003 082003 092003 102003 112003 122,7902,4692,8391,89518.3%-11.5%15.0%-33.3%-100.0%#DIV/0!2,6752,9573,1693,4708.3%10.5%7.2%9.5%-100.0%#DI