走向新型的財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)【外文翻譯】

1、本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯外文文獻(xiàn)譯文標(biāo)題：走向新型的財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)資料來(lái)源:european central bankworking paper seriesmarcel fratzscher作者： matthieu bussiere摘要：木文開發(fā)一個(gè)新的預(yù)警系統(tǒng)（ews）,他在一個(gè)多項(xiàng)式轉(zhuǎn)化模型的基 礎(chǔ)上預(yù)測(cè)金融危機(jī)。結(jié)果表明，早期預(yù)警系統(tǒng)都是建立在二項(xiàng)式離散模型的基 礎(chǔ)上，也就是我們所說(shuō)的危機(jī)后的偏見(jiàn)。這種偏見(jiàn)在經(jīng)濟(jì)寧?kù)o的時(shí)期出現(xiàn)時(shí)， 經(jīng)濟(jì)很大程度上是健全和可持續(xù)的，但當(dāng)出現(xiàn)危機(jī)或者危機(jī)后的時(shí)期，經(jīng)濟(jì)出 現(xiàn)變量時(shí)，通過(guò)調(diào)整就可以達(dá)到一個(gè)更可持續(xù)的水平，者可以讓經(jīng)濟(jì)保持到危 機(jī)發(fā)生前并與之沒(méi)有區(qū)別

2、。我們表明，應(yīng)用多項(xiàng)對(duì)分?jǐn)?shù)模型，它可以允許兩個(gè) 或者兩個(gè)以上國(guó)家之間的對(duì)應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的區(qū)別，這是解決這一問(wèn)題的有效途徑, 并對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)金融危機(jī)的能力構(gòu)成了顯著改善。實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示，從1993年至目前出 現(xiàn)32個(gè)開放的新興市場(chǎng)，該模型得到應(yīng)用并正確的預(yù)測(cè)了在新興市場(chǎng)的大部分 危機(jī)。此外，我們推導(dǎo)出關(guān)于早期預(yù)警系統(tǒng)模型的優(yōu)化設(shè)計(jì)，在基于他們的對(duì) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警程度意料之外的基礎(chǔ)上得出金融危機(jī)預(yù)警的結(jié)果，讓決策者作出最佳 的選擇，關(guān)鍵字：財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)；二項(xiàng)式離散信賴模型；貨幣危機(jī)早期預(yù)警系統(tǒng)； 危機(jī)預(yù)測(cè)非技術(shù)性總結(jié)：在過(guò)去的十年，在新興市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體系出現(xiàn)大量金融危機(jī)（emes）時(shí)，經(jīng) 常會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)，社會(huì)和政治后果產(chǎn)生

3、毀滅性的打擊，。這些金融危機(jī)，在許多情況 下并不局限于個(gè)別經(jīng)濟(jì)，也傳染性的蔓延到其他市場(chǎng)。因此，國(guó)際金融機(jī)構(gòu)開 發(fā)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)（ews）模型，目的是確定并預(yù)防新興市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的弱點(diǎn)和漏洞，并 最終預(yù)測(cè)這一類事件。木文的目的是提出一種新的預(yù)警系統(tǒng)模型，在現(xiàn)有的財(cái) 務(wù)預(yù)警經(jīng)濟(jì)模型經(jīng)行改善。首先，開發(fā)不同的實(shí)證方法，就是我們所說(shuō)的對(duì)危 機(jī)后的偏見(jiàn)糾正。如果出現(xiàn)這種偏差，模型無(wú)法區(qū)分寧?kù)o的時(shí)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)模式。 當(dāng)在危機(jī)后或者是危機(jī)后恢復(fù)的時(shí)期，經(jīng)濟(jì)基木面在很大程度上是健全的和可 持續(xù)的。但當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)牛變量時(shí)，通過(guò)調(diào)整去達(dá)到一個(gè)更加可持續(xù)的水平或更穩(wěn) 定的增長(zhǎng)路徑。我們表明，這種區(qū)別，使用三個(gè)制度（一個(gè)寧?kù)o的政權(quán)危機(jī)

4、前 的制度，一個(gè)支柱性經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)危機(jī)的制度和一個(gè)危機(jī)后經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)恢復(fù)制度）和 一個(gè)多項(xiàng)式對(duì)分?jǐn)?shù)模型構(gòu)成一個(gè)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)模型，使對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的預(yù)測(cè)能力大幅 改善。介紹：引言在過(guò)去的十年看到大量的新興市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體（emes）出現(xiàn)金融和經(jīng)濟(jì) 的危機(jī)吋，他對(duì)社會(huì)和政治造成的后果往往是毀滅性的。這些金融危機(jī)，在許 多情況下并不局限于個(gè)別經(jīng)濟(jì)，也會(huì)傳染性的蔓延到其他市場(chǎng)。特別是1994 至1995年度的拉美危機(jī)和1997-98年的亞洲金融危機(jī)影響了廣泛的國(guó)家集團(tuán)， 并作為一個(gè)整體對(duì)國(guó)際金融體系的系統(tǒng)性產(chǎn)生了很大的影響。因此，國(guó)際組織 和私營(yíng)部門機(jī)構(gòu)已經(jīng)開始開發(fā)早期預(yù)警系統(tǒng)（ews）模型，該模型的預(yù)測(cè)主要 以個(gè)別國(guó)家何

5、時(shí)可能會(huì)受到金融危機(jī)影響的目的經(jīng)行研究。國(guó)際貨幣基金組織 已率先投入emes開發(fā)并在早期預(yù)警系統(tǒng)模型的經(jīng)行了重犬努力，卡明斯基， lizondo和reinhart （1998）和berg和pattillo （1999）都著有對(duì)其極其具有影 響力的論文。但也有許多屮央銀行，如美國(guó)聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備委員會(huì)（kamin公司，迅 達(dá)和薩穆埃爾，kamin和巴布森學(xué)院）和德意志銀行（schmitz）以及學(xué)術(shù)界 和各種私營(yíng)部門機(jī)構(gòu)，近年來(lái)也致力去發(fā)展風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警模型。預(yù)警系統(tǒng)模型可以 有重大價(jià)值的決策者，使他們能夠發(fā)現(xiàn)潛在的經(jīng)濟(jì)弱點(diǎn)和漏洞，并可能采取先 發(fā)制人的措施，以減少遇到危機(jī)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。然而，這些模型已被證明只是在低

6、調(diào) 的研究以及在預(yù)測(cè)危機(jī)中執(zhí)行。本文的目的是開發(fā)一種新的預(yù)警系統(tǒng)模型顯著 三種方式，提高現(xiàn)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警模型。首先，也是最重要的是，本文認(rèn)為，現(xiàn)有 的預(yù)警系統(tǒng)模型的一個(gè)主要弱點(diǎn)是，就是我們所說(shuō)的危機(jī)后的偏見(jiàn)。這種偏見(jiàn) 意味著這些模型無(wú)法區(qū)分寧?kù)o的時(shí)期。經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面在很大程度上是健全和可持 續(xù)的，就是一個(gè)寧?kù)o的經(jīng)濟(jì)制度和所謂的支柱型產(chǎn)業(yè)出現(xiàn)危機(jī)的時(shí)期和危機(jī)后 恢復(fù)的吋期。當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)生變量吋，通過(guò)一個(gè)調(diào)整過(guò)程可以達(dá)到一個(gè)更可持續(xù)的 水平或增長(zhǎng)路線。我們表明可以使用多項(xiàng)對(duì)分?jǐn)?shù)模型對(duì)三個(gè)制度經(jīng)行區(qū)別（一 個(gè)寧?kù)o的政權(quán)危機(jī)前的制度，一個(gè)支柱性產(chǎn)業(yè)出現(xiàn)危機(jī)的制度和危機(jī)解決后恢 復(fù)的制度）構(gòu)成預(yù)警系統(tǒng)模型的預(yù)測(cè)能力

7、的大幅改善。外文文獻(xiàn)原文title:towards a new early warning system offinancial crisesmaterial source : european central bankworking paper series author: matthieu bussiere marcel fratzscherabstractthis paper develops a new early warning system (ews) model for predicting financial crises, basedon a multinomial logi

8、t model. it is shown that ews approaches based on binomial discrete-dependentvariable models can be subject to what we call a post-crisis bias. this bias arises when no distinction is made between tranquil periods, when economic fundamentals are largely sound and sustainable, and crisis/post-crisis

9、periods, when economic variables go through an adjustment process before reaching a more sustainable level or growth path. we show that applying a multinomial logit model, which allows distinguishing between more than two states, is a valid way of solving this problem and constitutes a substantial i

10、mprovement in the ability to forecast financial crises. the empirical results reveal that, for a set of 32 open emerging markets from 1993 till the present, the model would have correctly predicted a large majority of crises in emerging markets. moreover, we derive general results about the optimal

11、design of ews models, which allows policy-makers to make an optimal choice based on their degree of risk-aversion against unanticipated financial crises.keywords: currency crises; early warning system; crisis prediction.non-technical summarythe last decade saw a large number of financial crises in e

12、merging marketeconomies (emes) with oftendevastating economic, social and political consequences. these financial crises were in many cases not confined to individual economies but spread contagiously to other markets as well. as a result, international financial institutions have developed early wa

13、rning system (ews) models, with the aim of identifying economic weaknesses and vulnerabilities among emerging markets and ultimately anticipating such events.the aim of this paper is to present a new ews model that significantly improves upon existing models. first, the paper develops a different em

14、pirical methodology that corrects for what we call a post-crisis bias. this bias arises if models fail to distinguish between tranquil periods, when economic fundamentals are largely sound and sustainable, and postcrisis/recovery periods, when economic variables go through an adjustment process befo

15、re reaching a more sustainable level or growth path. we show that making this distinction by using a multinomial logit model with three regimes (a tranquil regime, a pre-crisis regime, and a post-crisis/recovery regime) constitutes a substantial improvement in the forecasting ability of ews models.i

16、ntroductionthe last decade saw a large number of financial crises in emerging market economies (emes) with often devastating economic, social and political consequences. these financial crises were in many cases not confined to individual economies but spread contagiously to other markets as well. i

17、n particular the latin american crisis of 1994-95 and the asian crisis of 1997-98 affected a wide group of countries and had systemic repercussions for the international financial system as a whole.as a result, international organizations and also private sector institutions have begun to develop ea

18、rly warning system (ews) models with the aim of anticipating whether and when individual countries may be affected by a financial crisis. the imf has taken a lead in putting significant effort into developing ews models for emes, resulting in influential papers by kaminsky, lizondo and reinhart (199

19、8) and by berg and pattillo (1999b). but also many central banks, such as the us federal reserve (karnin, schindler and samuel, 2001, karnin and babson, 1999) and the bundesbank (schnatz, 1998, 1999), academics and various private sector institutions have developed models in recent years.ews models

20、can have substantial value to policy-makers by allowing them to detect underlying economic weaknesses and vulnerabilities, and possibly taking pre-emptive steps to reduce the risks of experiencing a crisis. the central concern is, however, that these models have been shown to perform only modestly well in predicting crises (berg and pattillo, 1999a).the aim of this paper is to develop a new ews model that significantly improves upon existing models in three ways. f