ANDINTERNATIONALLINKAGES(跨國公司財(cái)務(wù)管理-Jose

1、Multinational Financial Management Alan Shapiro7th Edition J.Wiley & SonsPower Points byJoseph F. Greco, Ph.D.California State University, Fullerton1CHAPTER 5THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND INTERNATIONAL LINKAGES2CHAPTER OVERVIEWI. BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT CATEGORIESII.THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SER

2、VICES,AND CAPITALIII.COPING WITH CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS3PART I. BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIESA.THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (B-O-P)1.PURPOSE:Measures all financial and economic transactions overa specified period of time.4BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES2. Double-entry bookkeepinga. Currency inflows = credi

3、tsearn foreign exchangeb. Currency outflows = debitsexpend foreign exchange5BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES3.Three Major Accounts:a.Currentb.Capitalc.Official Reserves4.Current Accountrecords net flow of goods, services, and unilateral transfers. 6BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES5. Capital Accounta. Functi

4、on: records public and private investment and lending.b. Inflows = creditsc. Outflows = debits7BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES5. Capital Account (cont)d. Transactions classified as1.) portfolio2.) direct3.) short term8BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES6. Official Reserves Accounta. Function:1.) measures chan

5、ges in international reserves owned by central banks.2.) reflects surplus/deficit ofa.) current accountb.) capital account9BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES6. Official Reserves Account (cont)b. Reserves consist of 1.) gold2.) convertible securities10BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES7. Net Effects:a. Sum of al

6、l transactions must be zero:1.) current account2.) capital account3.) official reserves11BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES8. The Balance-of-payment measuresa. Some Definitions:1.) Basic Balancea.) consists of current account and long-term capital flows.12BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES1.) Basic Balance (con

7、t)b.) emphasizes long-term trends.13BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES1.) Basic Balance (cont)c.) excludes short-term capital flows that heavily depend on temporary factors.14BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES2.) Net Liquidity Balance:measures the change inprivate domestic borrowingor lending require to keep pa

8、yments equal withoutadjusting official reserves.15BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES3.)Official Reserve TransactionsBalance- measures adjustmentsneeded by official reserves.16PART II. THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITALII.LINKS FROM INTERNATIONAL TO DOMESTIC FLOWSA. Global Linkagesset o

9、f basic macroeconomic identities which link:domestic spending and production to current and capital accounts17THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITALB.Domestic Savings and Investmentand the Capital Account1.National Income Accounting a.National Income (NI) is either spent (C) or saved

10、 (S) NI = C + S(5.1) 18THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITALb. National spending (NS) is divided into personal spending (C)and investment (I)NS = C + I (5.2)19THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITALc. Subtracting (4.2) - (4.1)NI - NS = S - I(5.3)If NI NS, S I which im

11、pliesthat surplus capital spent overseas.20THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITALd.In a freely-floating system,excess saving = the capital account balancee.Implications:1.A nation which produces more than it spends will save more than it invests domestically with a net capital outflo

12、w producing a capital account deficit.21THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL2.A nation which spends more than it produces has a net capital inflow producing a capital account surplus.3.A healthy economy will tend torun a current account deficit.22THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SE

13、RVICES, AND CAPITALC.THE LINK BETWEEN THE CURRENT AND CAPITAL ACCOUNTS1.Beginning identityNI - NS = X - M(5.4)where X = exports M = importsX-M=current account balance (CA)23THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL2.Combining (5.3) + (5.4)S - I = X - M(5.5)3. If S - I = Net Foreign Inve

14、stment (NFI)NFI = X - M(5.6)24THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL4. Implications:a.If CA is in surplus, the nation must be a net exporter of capital.b.If CA is a deficit, the nation is a major capital importer.c.When NS NI, the excess must be acquired through foreign trade.25THE I

15、NTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITALd. Solutions for Improving CA deficits:1.)Raise national income (output)relative to domestic investment (I).2.)Increase (S) relative to domestic investment (I).26THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITALD. GOVERNMENT BUDGETS ANDCURRENT AC

16、COUNT DEFICITS1. CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE CA = Saving Surplus - Govt budget deficit27THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL2. CA Deficit means the nation is not saving enough to finance (I) and the deficit. 3. CA Surplus means the nation is saving more than needed to finance its (I) a

17、nd deficit.28PART III. COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITI.POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS UNLIKELY TO WORK:A.Currency DepreciationB. Protectionism29COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITII.CURRENCY DEPRECIATIONA. U.S. Experience: Does not improve the trade deficit.30COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT

18、B. Depreciations are ineffective because1.It takes time to affect trade.2.J-Curve Effectstates that a decline in currency value will initially worsen the deficit before improvement.31THE J - CURVETIMENet changein trade balance0Currency depreciationTrade balance initially deterioratesTrade balanceimproves32COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITIII.PROTECTIONISMA.Trade Barriers used:1.Tariffs2.QuotasB.Results:Most likely will reduce bothX and M.33