歐洲光伏協(xié)會(huì)-太陽能產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展概要

1、歐洲光伏協(xié)會(huì)-“太陽能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展前景及其對(duì)中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的影響” 簡(jiǎn)報(bào)會(huì)召開（發(fā)布日期：2011-2-25 10:13:00瀏覽人數(shù)：3482011年2月23日，上海Shanghai, 23 February 2011光伏能源一一中國(guó)重要能源Photovoltaic Energy: A key source of energy for China歐洲光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)（EPIA ）將于今天在“SNEC第五屆（2011國(guó)際太陽能產(chǎn)業(yè)及光伏工程（上海）展覽會(huì)暨 論壇”上發(fā)布其近期岀版的調(diào)研報(bào)告 釋放陽光地帶國(guó)家光伏潛力。該發(fā)布活動(dòng)獲得了中國(guó)可再生能源學(xué) 會(huì)（“CRES、上海新能源行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)（"SN

2、EIA"）和科爾尼管理咨詢公司的共同支持。The European Photovoltaic （PV Industry Association （EPIA will today present its recent publicationUnlocking the Sunbelt potential of Photovoltaicsat SNEC 5th （2011 International Solar PV PowerGeneration Conference & Exhibition （Shanghai with the support of Chinese Renew

3、able Energy Society（“ CRES and Shanghai New Energy Industry Association （"SNEIA" and the management consultancy firm A.T. Kearney.當(dāng)今世界位于 陽光地帶”的國(guó)家占世界總?cè)丝诘?5%,擁有全球40%的電力需求。此外，預(yù)計(jì)未來20年，約80%的電力需求將源自于此地區(qū)快速發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。由于陽光地帶國(guó)家擁有豐富的太陽輻射資源以及通 常較高的發(fā)電成本，這些地區(qū)的光伏能源具有得天獨(dú)厚的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)潛力，為光伏能源在2020年前成為主流能源，并在2030年前成為主要電

4、力來源帶來巨大機(jī)會(huì)。Countries of the world ' s Sunbelt represent today about 75% of the world' s population and 40% of theglobal electricity demand. Furthermore, about 80% of the forecasted growth of the world electricity demand in the coming 20 years will originate from fast developing economies in t

5、hat region. Characterized by an intense solar irradiation and often, high electricity generation costs, countries of the Sunbelt, where PV has a unique competitive potential, constitute an immense opportunity for PV to become mainstream by 2020 and to become a major electricity source by 2030.這是今天歐洲

6、光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)（EPIA ）所作報(bào)告釋放陽光地帶國(guó)家光伏潛力的主要研究結(jié)論。在戰(zhàn)略咨詢公司科爾尼的支持下，此報(bào)告對(duì)處于 陽光地帶”的66個(gè)國(guó)家進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)的調(diào)研，這些國(guó)家共擁有50億人口，占世界總?cè)丝诘?95%。盡管此地區(qū)太陽輻射資源特別豐富，但目前僅占全球光伏裝機(jī)容量的9%，這明確表明陽光地帶”國(guó)家豐富的太陽能資源尚有巨大的開發(fā)潛力。That is the main conclusion of the study presented today by the European Photovoltaic IndustryAssociation (EPIA, “ Unlocking the Sunb

7、elt potential of photovoltaics Carried out .with the support of the Strategy Consulting Firm A.T. Kearney, this report looks in detail at 66 countries which compose theSunbelt, representing 5 billion people and 95% of the area' s. poppaecUie exceptional solarirradiation registered in these count

8、ries, at present they represent only 9% of the global installed PV capacity, which clearly shows that the high solar potential of Sunbelt countries remains largely untapped.除中國(guó)以外，目前全球前 10大光伏市場(chǎng)位于 陽光地帶”以外地區(qū)，EPIA報(bào)告強(qiáng)調(diào)，應(yīng)鼓勵(lì)光伏行業(yè)和陽光地帶”地區(qū)國(guó)家政府確保對(duì)潛在重要光伏市場(chǎng)的產(chǎn)能供應(yīng)，并加強(qiáng)其充分利用光伏能源創(chuàng)造更多國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì) 價(jià)值的承諾。人金融機(jī)構(gòu)進(jìn)行協(xié)作以加快光伏技術(shù)的使用，不但將

9、其作為農(nóng)村電氣化來源，還將其作為主流能源來源來使 用?！盇part from China, all the top 10 major PV markets in the world are currently located outside the Sunbelt region. EPIA' s report highlights the need to encourage the PV industry and Sunbelt governments alike to ensure the capacity to serve these soon-to-be very importa

10、nt markets and increase their commitment to significantly contribute to domestic economic value creation.中國(guó)是世界上重要的陽光地帶國(guó)家，擁有巨大的光伏發(fā)電能力。中國(guó)已經(jīng)擁有了世界上最大規(guī)模的光伏發(fā)電 能力，并且面臨促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)所需的日益增長(zhǎng)的電力需求，該報(bào)告強(qiáng)調(diào)了中國(guó)在推動(dòng)光伏發(fā)電在陽光地帶發(fā)展中 扮演的關(guān)鍵角色。中國(guó)可再生能源學(xué)會(huì)光伏專委會(huì)秘書長(zhǎng)吳達(dá)成說：大家都知道，十二五計(jì)劃已確立了可再生能源行業(yè)的重要戰(zhàn)略地位，在此計(jì)劃中，光伏能源比起其他可替代能源具有更加獨(dú)特的優(yōu)勢(shì)，因此，它 將在本世紀(jì)

11、替代傳統(tǒng)能源資源上扮演重要角色?！敝袊?guó)國(guó)務(wù)院參贊、上海新能源行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)會(huì)長(zhǎng)石定寰進(jìn)一步指岀：各級(jí)政府需要進(jìn)一步努力為太陽能行業(yè)的發(fā)展創(chuàng)造更加有利可圖的運(yùn)營(yíng)環(huán)境。”China, in particular, features in the top echelon of Sunbelt countries with a tremendous PV potential.Already commanding the world"s largest PV manufacturing capacity, and faced with steeply increasing electricity d

12、emand to power its economy, the report also highlights China"s crucial role going forward for PV in the Sunbelt. "It is well known that China has earmarked the renewable energy sector as one of huge strategic importance in its 12th Five Year Plan. Within this, PV has distinct advantages ov

13、er other alternative energies, and as such, will play a major role in replacing traditional energy sources this century" remarked Mr. Wu Dacheng, PV Professional Committee of CRES. " Mr. Shi Dinghuan, counselor of China''s State Council and also President of CRES added that "g

14、overnments at different levels need to further efforts to provide a more profitable operating environment for the solar energy sector"此調(diào)研分別根據(jù)投資吸引力、光伏競(jìng)爭(zhēng)潛力等標(biāo)準(zhǔn)評(píng)估各個(gè)國(guó)家，識(shí)別岀3大典型部署場(chǎng)景。根據(jù)各場(chǎng)景的不同，陽光地帶”國(guó)家的光伏潛能將在2020年前達(dá)到60-250兆瓦，在2030年前達(dá)到260-1100兆瓦，屆時(shí)將占全球光伏總裝機(jī)容量的27-58%。由于光伏發(fā)電系統(tǒng)價(jià)格有望在2030年降低66%,已在一些國(guó)家的尖端發(fā)電技術(shù)中脫

15、穎而岀的光伏發(fā)電成本將隨之迅速降低。The study, which looks for each country at criteria such as investment attractiveness, and the competitive potential of PV, identifies 3 typical deployment scenarios. It shows that the PV potential of the Sunbelt countries could range, depending on the scenario, from 60 to 250 GW b

16、y 2020, and from 260 to 1,100 GW in 2030, representing 27-58% of the forecasted global installed PV capacity by then. With system prices expected to decrease by up to 66% in 2030, PV electricity, already competitive today with some peak generation technologies in a number of countries, would see its

17、 generation costs dropping fast.按EPIA董事會(huì)主席Murray Cameron的話說：中國(guó)目前已將平準(zhǔn)化能源成本控制在1.4-1.5元/千瓦時(shí)(即15.0 - 16.5 ?cts/kWh )之間，已顯示出比柴油動(dòng)力峰值裝機(jī)容量更大的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。除此之外，通過范式轉(zhuǎn)移，中國(guó)將在2020年將平準(zhǔn)化能源成本降低至RMB0.65元/千瓦時(shí)(即0.07 ?cts/kWh，并于2030年將此成本降低至0.45元/千瓦時(shí)(即0.05 ?cts/kW )。”他進(jìn)一步補(bǔ)充道：到2020年，整個(gè)陽光地帶光伏發(fā)電的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力將高于所有其他峰荷發(fā)電，而到2030年，光伏發(fā)電成本將低于所有其他

18、常規(guī)發(fā)電技術(shù)成本。”“ China can already rea ch an LCOE between RMB1.4 and RMB1.5 /kWh (15.0 -16.5 ?cts/kWh now,making it already more competitive than diesel powered peak power capacity. In addition, under the paradigm shift, China could reach RMB0.65/kWh (0.07 ?cts/kWh in 2020 and as low RMB0.45/kWh (0.05?ct

19、s/kW by 2030” , explained Murray Cameron, Board Director of EPIA.“Across the Sunbelt, already in2020, PV will be more competitive than all peak load electricity generation while in 2030 all conventionalpower generation technologies will be more expensive compared to PV ” , he further added除了提供詳細(xì)的經(jīng)濟(jì)分

20、析以支持各種部署場(chǎng)景，此調(diào)研還就在陽光地帶”全面開發(fā)光伏產(chǎn)能提岀一系列的建議。戰(zhàn)略管理咨詢公司科爾尼大中國(guó)區(qū)總裁Bernhard Hartmann評(píng)論說：建議亞洲地區(qū)政府和政策制定者認(rèn)真考慮將光伏能源作為其能源戰(zhàn)略和計(jì)劃的一個(gè)明確部分。這還需要與各發(fā)展銀行以及私人金融機(jī)構(gòu)進(jìn)行 協(xié)作以加快光伏技術(shù)的使用，不但將其作為農(nóng)村電氣化來源，還將其作為主流能源來源來使用?！盜n addition to providing a detailed economic analysis supporting the various deployment scenarios, thestudy also highl

21、ights a series of recommendations to enable the full realisation of the potential of PV in theSunbelt. As commented by Bernhard Hartmann, Managing Director, Greater China of StrategicManagement Consultancy firm, A.T. Kearney“ governments and policy makers in Asia are advised toseriously consider PV

22、as an explicit part of their energy strategy and planning. They should also collaborate with development banks and private financial institutions to facilitate technology adoption of PV not only as a source for rural electrification, but as a mainstream source of energy.請(qǐng)請(qǐng)點(diǎn)擊此處here下載該調(diào)研。Please click

23、here to download the full study編者按：我們聯(lián)合戰(zhàn)略咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)科爾尼公司(A. T. Kearney )完成了本調(diào)研，其中還獲得了農(nóng)村電氣化聯(lián)盟(ARE )以及西班牙光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)( ASIF )的大力支持。Editor ' s note This study was done in collaboration with the strategic management consultancy A.T.Kearney, and with the support of the Alliance for Rural Electrification (ARE and

24、 the Asociacin de laoIndustria Fotovoltaica (ASIF關(guān)于EPIA:擁有整個(gè)太陽能光伏行業(yè)中超過 240名會(huì)員，EPIA是世界上最大的光伏行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)。EPIA的會(huì)員遍布業(yè)內(nèi)價(jià)值鏈的每個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)：從硅、電池和模塊生產(chǎn)到系統(tǒng)開發(fā)和光伏發(fā)電以及營(yíng)銷與銷售。EPIA旨在通過整合光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)，推動(dòng)提供獨(dú)特而有價(jià)值的服務(wù)。About EPIA: With over 240 Members drawn from across the entire solar photovoltaic (PV sector, theEuropean Photovoltaic Industry

25、 Association is the world' s largest photovoltaic industry association. EPIAMembers are present throughout the whole value-chain: from silicon, cells and module production tosystems development and PV electrici ty generation as well as marketing and sales. EPIA' s mission is todeliver a dist

26、inct and valuable service driven from the strength of a single photovoltaic voice.EPIA:中國(guó)等陽光地帶國(guó)光伏發(fā)展?jié)摿薮蟀l(fā)布人：editor 來源： 點(diǎn)擊：139次 發(fā)布時(shí)間：2011-02-25 10:32:53歐洲光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)（EPIA）董事會(huì)主席 Murray Cameron博士，在本屆 SNEC國(guó)際太陽能產(chǎn)業(yè)及光伏工程展覽會(huì)暨論壇上，發(fā)布調(diào)研報(bào)告釋放陽光地帶國(guó)家光伏潛力，該報(bào)告以中國(guó)和印度為例 證，分析認(rèn)為位于陽光地帶（赤道南北緯35度之間）的多個(gè)國(guó)家光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展?jié)摿薮蟆＿@些地區(qū)雖然擁有豐富的太陽能

27、輻射資源，但目前光伏發(fā)電裝機(jī)量?jī)H占全球的9%因此擁有極大提升空間。一，陽光地帶的電力需求增長(zhǎng)卻遠(yuǎn)大于非陽光地帶國(guó)家成本與價(jià)格的劇減和一些關(guān)鍵市場(chǎng)的政策支持促成了近年來光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的迅猛增長(zhǎng)，然而值得注 意的是，增長(zhǎng)最為迅速的卻是意大利、西班牙等太陽能輻射相對(duì)較弱的地區(qū)。與此同時(shí)，陽光地帶的 電力需求增長(zhǎng)卻遠(yuǎn)大于非陽光地帶國(guó)家。根據(jù)國(guó)際能源署發(fā)布的世界能源展望，在未來20年內(nèi)，全球近80%勺電力需求都將來自于陽光地帶國(guó)家。二，中國(guó)、印度、澳大利亞和墨西哥等國(guó)光伏能源吸引力和國(guó)家投資吸引力較高涉及到燃油價(jià)格補(bǔ)貼、服務(wù)于市場(chǎng)的能力有限、及能源公司的知識(shí)有限等多方面因素，目前在 很多陽光地帶國(guó)家全面實(shí)現(xiàn)地

28、區(qū)光伏資源優(yōu)勢(shì)仍面臨著許多障礙。圖中顯示了對(duì)66個(gè)國(guó)家基于國(guó)家整體投資吸引力和指定國(guó)家光伏能源吸引力2個(gè)變量的調(diào)查結(jié)果：資料來源：美國(guó)宇航局（NASA,國(guó)際能源署（IEA-技術(shù)發(fā)展分析，歐洲光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)（EPIA-2014年全球光伏市場(chǎng)展望，科尼爾咨詢分析分析結(jié)果顯示多數(shù)陽光地帶國(guó)家的光伏吸引力都很高。潛力最大的一組包含了幾個(gè)全球主要經(jīng) 濟(jì)體，即中國(guó)、印度、澳大利亞和墨西哥。第二和第三組主要由經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展迅速的中型經(jīng)濟(jì)體組成，包 括土耳其、阿根廷、南非、沙特阿拉伯、埃及和泰國(guó)。三，三種模式下陽光地帶光伏發(fā)展機(jī)遇比較Hit町 itRKtnnB*資料來源：綠色和平組織太陽能報(bào)告，國(guó)際能源署（IEA-太

29、陽能光伏技術(shù)發(fā)展分析，科尼爾咨詢分析（基礎(chǔ)/加速發(fā)展情景分別基于其穩(wěn)健/先進(jìn)模式。非陽光地帶國(guó)家范式轉(zhuǎn)型中所用數(shù)據(jù)與加速發(fā)展情 景相同。）在加速情景中，至2030年，陽光地帶這些國(guó)家的光伏裝機(jī)容量將達(dá)405 GW屆時(shí)能為近3億人口提供穩(wěn)定的電力供應(yīng)，約占陽光地帶總發(fā)電量的2.5% - 6%。在大膽的范式轉(zhuǎn)型情景中，這些國(guó)家的光伏裝機(jī)容量甚至可達(dá) 1100 GW也就是該地域發(fā)電總量的12%。四，光伏系統(tǒng)的裝機(jī)價(jià)格不斷降低資料來源：可再生能源研究所 （NREL，美國(guó)電子工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)（EIA-2010年太陽能光伏技術(shù)發(fā)展分 析，綠色和平組織太陽能報(bào)告，歐洲光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)（EPIA-2020展望，國(guó)際能源署（IEA-技術(shù)發(fā)展分析，科尼爾咨詢分析如圖，與20