《我國財政收入影響因素分析》-計量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)論文(eviews分析)

1、?我國財政收入影響因素分析?班級： 姓名： 學(xué)號：指導(dǎo)教師： 完成時間： 摘要：對我國財政收入影響因素進(jìn)行了定量分析，建立了數(shù)學(xué)模型，并提出了提高我國財政收入質(zhì)量的政策建議。關(guān)鍵詞：財政收入 實證分析 影響因素一、 引言財政收入對于國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的運(yùn)行及社會開展具有重要影響。首先，它是一個國家各項收入得以實現(xiàn)的物質(zhì)保證。一個國家財政收入規(guī)模大小往往是衡量其經(jīng)濟(jì)實力的重要標(biāo)志。其次，財政收入是國家對經(jīng)濟(jì)實行宏觀調(diào)控的重要經(jīng)濟(jì)杠桿。宏觀調(diào)控的首要問題是社會總需求與總供應(yīng)的平衡問題，實現(xiàn)社會總需求與總供應(yīng)的平衡，包括總量上的平衡和結(jié)構(gòu)上的平衡兩個層次的內(nèi)容。財政收入的杠桿既可通過增收和減收來發(fā)揮總量調(diào)控作

2、用，也可通過對不同財政資金繳納者的財政負(fù)擔(dān)大小的調(diào)整，來發(fā)揮結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的作用。此外，財政收入分配也是調(diào)整國民收入初次分配格局，實現(xiàn)社會財富公平合理分配的主要工具。在我國，財政收入的主體是稅收收入。因此，在稅收體制及政策不變的情況下，財政收入會隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮而增加，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退而下降。我國的財政收入主要包括稅收、國有經(jīng)濟(jì)收入、債務(wù)收入以及其他收入四種形式，因此，財政收入會受到不同因素的影響。從國民經(jīng)濟(jì)部門結(jié)構(gòu)看，財政收入又表現(xiàn)為來自各經(jīng)濟(jì)部門的收入。財政收入的部門構(gòu)成就是在財政收入中，由來自國民經(jīng)濟(jì)各部門的收入所占的不同比例來表現(xiàn)財政收入來源的結(jié)構(gòu)，它表達(dá)國民經(jīng)濟(jì)各部門與財政收入的關(guān)系。我國財政收入

3、主要來自于工業(yè)、農(nóng)業(yè)、商業(yè)、交通運(yùn)輸和效勞業(yè)等部門。因此，本文認(rèn)為財政收入主要受到總稅收收入、國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、其他收入和就業(yè)人口總數(shù)的影響。二、預(yù)設(shè)模型令財政收入Y億元為被解釋變量，總稅收收入X1億元、國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值X2億元、其他收入X3億元、就業(yè)人口總數(shù)為X4萬人為解釋變量，據(jù)此建立回歸模型。二、 數(shù)據(jù)收集從?2021中國統(tǒng)計年鑒?得到1990-2021年每年的財政收入、總稅收收入、國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值工、其他收入和就業(yè)人口總數(shù)的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)如下：obs財政收入Y總稅收收入X1國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值X2其他收入X3就業(yè)人口總數(shù)X419902937.12821.8618667.8299.536474919913149.

4、482990.1721781.5240.16549119923483.373296.9126923.5265.156615219934348.954255.335333.9191.046680819945218.15126.8848197.9280.186745519956242.26038.0460793.7396.196806519967407.996909.8271176.6724.666895019978651.148234.0478973682.36982019989875.959262.884402.3833.370637199911444.0810682.5889677.1925

5、.4371394200013395.2312581.5199214.6944.9872085200116386.0415301.38109655.21218.173025200218903.6417636.45120332.71328.7473740200321715.2520017.31135822.81691.9374432200426396.4724165.68159878.32148.3275200200531649.2928778.54184937.42707.8375825200638760.234804.35216314.43683.8576400200751321.784562

6、1.97265810.34457.9676990202161330.3554223.79314045.45552.4677480202168518.359521.59340506.97215.7277995三、 模型建立1、 散點圖分析2、 單因素或多變量間關(guān)系分析YX1X2X3X4Y10.9989134611478530.9934790452908040.8770144886795640.983602719841508X10.99891346114785310.9937402677184690.8556377347447820.984935296593492X20.9934790452908

7、040.99374026771846910.8561835802284710.986241165680459X30.8770144886795640.8556377347447820.85618358022847110.810940334650381X40.9836027198415080.9849352965934920.9862411656804590.8109403346503811由散點圖分析和變量間關(guān)系分析可以看出被解釋變量財政收入Y與解釋變量總稅收收入X1、國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值X2、其他收入X3、就業(yè)人口總數(shù)X4呈線性關(guān)系，因此該回歸模型設(shè)為：3、 模型預(yù)模擬由eviews做ols回歸得到

8、結(jié)果：Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 11/14/11 Time: 17:51Sample: 1990 2021Included observations: 20VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C7299.5231691.8144.3146140.0006X11.0628020.02110850.349720.0000X20.0017700.0045280.3910070.7013X30.8733690.1198067.2898520.0000X4-

9、0.1159750.026580-4.3631600.0006R-squared0.999978    Mean dependent var20556.75Adjusted R-squared0.999972    S.D. dependent var19987.03S.E. of regression106.6264    Akaike info criterion12.38886Sum squared resid170537.9   

10、0;Schwarz criterion12.63779Log likelihood-118.8886    F-statistic166897.9Durbin-Watson stat1.496517    Prob(F-statistic)0.000000 (4.314614) ( 50.34972 ) ( 0.391007) ( 7.289852) ( -4.363160) 四、 模型檢驗1.計量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)意義檢驗多重共線性檢驗與解決求相關(guān)系數(shù)矩陣，得到：Correlation MatrixYX1X2X3X410.9

11、989134611478530.9934790452908040.8770144886795640.9836027198415080.99891346114785310.9937402677184690.8556377347447820.9849352965934920.9934790452908040.99374026771846910.8561835802284710.9862411656804590.8770144886795640.8556377347447820.85618358022847110.8109403346503810.9836027198415080.984935296

12、5934920.9862411656804590.8109403346503811發(fā)現(xiàn)模型存在多重共線性。接下來運(yùn)用逐步回歸法對模型進(jìn)行修正:將各個解釋變量分別參加模型,進(jìn)行一元回歸: 作Y與X1的回歸，結(jié)果如下:Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 11/22/11 Time: 23:02Sample: 1990 2021Included observations: 20VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C-755.6610145.2330-5.20309

13、40.0001X11.1449940.005760198.79310.0000R-squared0.999545    Mean dependent var20556.75Adjusted R-squared0.999519    S.D. dependent var19987.03S.E. of regression438.1521    Akaike info criterion15.09765Sum squared resid3455590.  &#

14、160; Schwarz criterion15.19722Log likelihood-148.9765    F-statistic39518.70Durbin-Watson stat0.475046    Prob(F-statistic)0.000000作Y與X2的回歸，結(jié)果如下:Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 11/22/11 Time: 23:06Sample: 1990 2021Included observations: 20

15、VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C-5222.077861.2067-6.0636740.0000X20.2076890.00554837.432670.0000R-squared0.987317    Mean dependent var20556.75Adjusted R-squared0.986612    S.D. dependent var19987.03S.E. of regression2312.610 

16、60;  Akaike info criterion18.42478Sum squared resid96267005    Schwarz criterion18.52435Log likelihood-182.2478    F-statistic1401.205Durbin-Watson stat0.188013    Prob(F-statistic)0.000000作Y與X3的回歸，結(jié)果如下:Dependent Variable: YMethod

17、: Least SquaresDate: 11/22/11 Time: 23:08Sample: 1990 2021Included observations: 20VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C2607.879773.99883.3693580.0034X310.030730.29431134.082090.0000R-squared0.984740    Mean dependent var20556.75Adjusted R-squared0.983893

18、0;   S.D. dependent var19987.03S.E. of regression2536.645    Akaike info criterion18.60971Sum squared resid1.16E+08    Schwarz criterion18.70929Log likelihood-184.0971    F-statistic1161.589Durbin-Watson stat1.194389 

19、60;  Prob(F-statistic)0.000000作Y與X4的回歸，結(jié)果如下:Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 11/22/11 Time: 23:08Sample: 1990 2021Included observations: 20VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C-272959.337203.65-7.3368940.0000X44.0974030.5184677.9029180.0000R-squared0.776

20、276    Mean dependent var20556.75Adjusted R-squared0.763846    S.D. dependent var19987.03S.E. of regression9712.824    Akaike info criterion21.29492Sum squared resid1.70E+09    Schwarz criterion21.39449Log likelihood-210

21、.9492    F-statistic62.45611Durbin-Watson stat0.157356    Prob(F-statistic)0.000000依據(jù)可決系數(shù)最大的原那么選取X1作為進(jìn)入回歸模型的第一個解釋變量,再依次將其余變量分別代入回歸得:作Y與X1、X2的回歸，結(jié)果如下Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 11/22/11 Time: 23:09Sample: 1990 2021Included observations: 20Va

22、riableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C-188.4285239.0743-0.7881590.4415X11.2815940.04947225.905680.0000X2-0.0250550.009029-2.7749080.0130R-squared0.999687    Mean dependent var20556.75Adjusted R-squared0.999650    S.D. dependent var19987.03S.E

23、. of regression374.0345    Akaike info criterion14.82405Sum squared resid2378330.    Schwarz criterion14.97341Log likelihood-145.2405    F-statistic27118.20Durbin-Watson stat0.683510    Prob(F-statistic)0.000000作Y與X1、X3的

24、回歸，結(jié)果如下Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 11/22/11 Time: 23:10Sample: 1990 2021Included observations: 20VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C-351.105483.15053-4.2225270.0006X10.9928130.01870753.071960.0000X31.3569360.1651098.2184100.0000R-squared0.999908  

25、  Mean dependent var20556.75Adjusted R-squared0.999898    S.D. dependent var19987.03S.E. of regression202.1735    Akaike info criterion13.59361Sum squared resid694859.9    Schwarz criterion13.74297Log likelihood-132.9361 

26、0;  F-statistic92839.33Durbin-Watson stat1.177765    Prob(F-statistic)0.000000作Y與X1、X4的回歸，結(jié)果如下Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 11/22/11 Time: 23:10Sample: 1990 2021Included observations: 20VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C11853.46

27、1824.5226.4967480.0000X11.1858860.006645178.46080.0000X4-0.1866450.026984-6.9170030.0000R-squared0.999881    Mean dependent var20556.75Adjusted R-squared0.999867    S.D. dependent var19987.03S.E. of regression230.8464    Akaike info criteri

28、on13.85886Sum squared resid905931.0    Schwarz criterion14.00822Log likelihood-135.5886    F-statistic71206.90Durbin-Watson stat1.459938    Prob(F-statistic)0.000000在滿足經(jīng)濟(jì)意義和可決系數(shù)的條件下選取X3作為進(jìn)入模型的第二個解釋變量,再次進(jìn)行回歸那么:作Y與X1、X3、X2的回歸，結(jié)果如下Dependent Va

29、riable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 11/22/11 Time: 23:13Sample: 1990 2021Included observations: 20VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C-76.04458100.1724-0.7591370.4588X11.0859240.02980136.438810.0000X31.2108530.1334449.0738770.0000X2-0.0140730.003944-3.5679010.0026R-squared0.999

30、949    Mean dependent var20556.75Adjusted R-squared0.999939    S.D. dependent var19987.03S.E. of regression155.5183    Akaike info criterion13.10826Sum squared resid386975.0    Schwarz criterion13.30741Log likelihood-127

31、.0826    F-statistic104602.9Durbin-Watson stat1.196933    Prob(F-statistic)0.000000作Y與X1、X3、X4的回歸，結(jié)果如下Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 11/22/11 Time: 23:13Sample: 1990 2021Included observations: 20VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.

32、60; C6781.7641024.7456.6180030.0000X11.0686420.01451473.627640.0000X30.8910690.1079498.2545510.0000X4-0.1076390.015451-6.9666750.0000R-squared0.999977    Mean dependent var20556.75Adjusted R-squared0.999973    S.D. dependent var19987.03S.E. of regression1

33、03.7654    Akaike info criterion12.29900Sum squared resid172276.1    Schwarz criterion12.49814Log likelihood-118.9900    F-statistic234970.9Durbin-Watson stat1.451447    Prob(F-statistic)0.000000可見參加其余任何一個變量都會導(dǎo)致系數(shù)符號與經(jīng)濟(jì)意義

34、不符,故最終修正后的回歸模型為:Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 11/30/11 Time: 12:18Sample: 1990 2021Included observations: 20VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C-351.105483.15053-4.2225270.0006X10.9928130.01870753.071960.0000X31.3569360.1651098.2184100.0000R-squared0.999908

35、60;   Mean dependent var20556.75Adjusted R-squared0.999898    S.D. dependent var19987.03S.E. of regression202.1735    Akaike info criterion13.59361Sum squared resid694859.9    Schwarz criterion13.74297Log likelihood-132.9361&

36、#160;   F-statistic92839.33Durbin-Watson stat1.177765    Prob(F-statistic)0.000000(-4.222527) ( 53.07196) ( 8.218410) 異方差檢驗與修正 圖示法ee與X1的散點圖如下：說明ee與X1存在單調(diào)遞增型異方差性。ee與X3的散點圖如下：說明ee與X3存在單調(diào)遞增型異方差性。G-Q檢驗對20組數(shù)據(jù)剔除掉中間四組剩下的進(jìn)行分組后，第一組1990-1997數(shù)據(jù)的回歸結(jié)果：Dependent Variable: YMetho

37、d: Least SquaresDate: 11/30/11 Time: 12:54Sample: 1990 1997Included observations: 8VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  X10.9841230.01625560.543200.0000X30.8515180.1566885.4344720.0029C-28.3427545.36993-0.6247030.5596R-squared0.999686    Mean dependent var5179

38、.791Adjusted R-squared0.999560    S.D. dependent var2099.840S.E. of regression44.05899    Akaike info criterion10.68893Sum squared resid9705.972    Schwarz criterion10.71872Log likelihood-39.75573    F-statistic7947.575D

39、urbin-Watson stat1.663630    Prob(F-statistic)0.000000殘差平方和RSS1=9705.972第二組2002-2021數(shù)據(jù)的回歸結(jié)果：Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 11/30/11 Time: 12:55Sample: 2002 2021Included observations: 8VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  X11.0664040.02774738.4

40、33210.0000X30.8472280.2151143.9385030.0110C-1184.159261.8258-4.5226980.0063R-squared0.999932    Mean dependent var39824.41Adjusted R-squared0.999905    S.D. dependent var18639.16S.E. of regression182.0047    Akaike info criterion13.52594Sum

41、 squared resid165628.5    Schwarz criterion13.55573Log likelihood-51.10375    F-statistic36705.08Durbin-Watson stat1.326122    Prob(F-statistic)0.000000殘差平方和RSS2= 165628.5所以F= RSS2/RSS1= 165628.5/9705.972=17.0646在給定a=5%下查得臨界值 ，因此否認(rèn)兩組子樣方差相同的

42、假設(shè)，從而該總體隨機(jī)項存在遞增異方差性。White 方法檢驗White Heteroskedasticity Test:F-statistic6.142021    Probability0.003919Obs*R-squared12.41812    Probability0.014498Test Equation:Dependent Variable: RESID2Method: Least SquaresDate: 11/30/11 Time: 13:21Sample: 1990 2021Included o

43、bservations: 20VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C24856.5019211.301.2938480.2153X1-20.573277.549127-2.7252520.0156X120.0002128.04E-052.6399820.0186X3237.181378.613233.0170670.0087X32-0.0240730.006568-3.6652300.0023R-squared0.620906    Mean dependent var3474

44、3.00Adjusted R-squared0.519815    S.D. dependent var49156.00S.E. of regression34062.86    Akaike info criterion23.92212Sum squared resid1.74E+10    Schwarz criterion24.17105Log likelihood-234.2212    F-statistic6.142021D

45、urbin-Watson stat1.560937    Prob(F-statistic)0.003919a=5%下，臨界值拒絕同方差性 修正Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 11/30/11 Time: 14:29Sample: 1990 2021Included observations: 20Weighting series: 1/E1VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C-314.207443.68550-

46、7.1924860.0000X10.9797580.008622113.63360.0000X31.4572910.06592222.106290.0000Weighted StatisticsR-squared0.999999    Mean dependent var27246.27Adjusted R-squared0.999999    S.D. dependent var74471.17S.E. of regression73.91795    Akaike inf

47、o criterion11.58127Sum squared resid92885.67    Schwarz criterion11.73063Log likelihood-112.8127    F-statistic3138195.Durbin-Watson stat0.956075    Prob(F-statistic)0.000000Unweighted StatisticsR-squared0.999902    Mean

48、 dependent var20556.75Adjusted R-squared0.999891    S.D. dependent var19987.03S.E. of regression209.0283    Sum squared resid742778.2Durbin-Watson stat1.365483(-7.192486) ( 113.6336) ( 22.10629) 序列相關(guān)性檢驗從殘差項e2與e2(-1)及e與時間t的關(guān)系圖如下看，隨機(jī)項呈現(xiàn)正序列相關(guān)性。Q統(tǒng)計量檢驗由圖可以看出，存在一階序列

49、相關(guān)回歸檢驗殘差e2與e2-1做回歸得：Dependent Variable: EMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/04/11 Time: 15:21Sample (adjusted): 1991 2021Included observations: 19 after adjustmentsVariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C16.8152545.696110.3679800.7174E(-1)0.3035700.2311141.3135080.2065R-squared0.092138&

50、#160;   Mean dependent var25.28519Adjusted R-squared0.038734    S.D. dependent var201.1252S.E. of regression197.1916    Akaike info criterion13.50553Sum squared resid661036.6    Schwarz criterion13.60494Log likelihood-126.302

51、5    F-statistic1.725303Durbin-Watson stat1.776498    Prob(F-statistic)0.206464e與e(-1)、e(-2)做回歸得：Dependent Variable: EMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/04/11 Time: 15:24Sample (adjusted): 1992 2021Included observations: 18 after adjustmentsVariableCoefficientStd.

52、Errort-StatisticProb.  C7.44976046.209120.1612180.8741E(-1)0.4195640.2444751.7161870.1067E(-2)-0.3798940.278641-1.3633800.1929R-squared0.192570    Mean dependent var16.45940Adjusted R-squared0.084912    S.D. dependent var203.1349S.E. of regression194

53、.3193    Akaike info criterion13.52789Sum squared resid566399.7    Schwarz criterion13.67629Log likelihood-118.7510    F-statistic1.788727Durbin-Watson stat2.055382    Prob(F-statistic)0.202143由上說明不存在序列相關(guān)性。D.W檢驗由異方差檢驗修正后的結(jié)果： 得D.W=1.365483取a=5%，由于n=20，k=3(包含常數(shù)項)，查表得： dl=1.10， du=1.54由于dl<DW=1.365483< du ，故: 序列相關(guān)性不確定。拉格朗日檢驗De