TED演講中英對(duì)照1.

1、At every stage of our lives we make decisions that will profoundly influence the lives of the people we're going to become, and then when we become those people, we're not always thrilled with the decisions we made. So young people pay good money to get tattoos removed that teenagers paid go

2、od money to get. Middle-aged people rushed to divorce people who young adults rushed to marry. Older adults work hard to lose what middle-aged adults worked hard to gain. On and on and on. The question is, as a psychologist, that fascinates me is, why do we make decisions that our future selves so o

3、ften regret?在我們生命白每個(gè)階段，我們都會(huì)做出一些決定，這些決定會(huì)深刻影響未來我們 自己的生活，當(dāng)我們成為未來的自己時(shí)，我們并不總是對(duì)過去做過的決定感到高興。 所以年輕人花很多錢洗去當(dāng)還是青少年時(shí)花了很多錢做上的紋身。中年人急著跟 年輕時(shí)迫不及待想結(jié)婚的人離婚。老年人很努力的揮霍著作為中年人時(shí)不停工作 所賺的錢。如此沒完沒了。作為一個(gè)心理 學(xué)家,讓我感興趣的問題是，為什么我們會(huì)做出讓自己將來常常后悔的決定？Now, I think one of the reasons - I'll try to convince you today is that we have a fu

4、ndamental misconception about the power of time. Every one of you knows that the rate of change slows over the human lifespan, that your children seem to change by the minute but your parents seem to change by the year. But what is the name of this magical point in life where change suddenly goes fr

5、om a gallop to a crawl? Is it teenage years? Is it middle age? Is it old age? The answer, it turns out, for most people, is now, wherever now happens to be. What I want to convince you today is that all of us are walking around with an 川usion, an 川usion that history,our personal history, has just co

6、me to an end, that we have just recently become the people that we were always meant to be and will be for the rest of our live豉認(rèn)為其中 一個(gè)原因而我今天想說服你們的一一就是我們對(duì)時(shí)間的力量有個(gè)基本的錯(cuò) 誤 概念。你們每個(gè)人都知道變化的速度隨著人的年齡增長(zhǎng)不斷放慢，孩子們好像每分 鐘都有變化,而父母?jìng)兊淖兓瘎t要慢得多。那么生命中這個(gè)讓變化突然間從飛速變得緩慢的神奇轉(zhuǎn) 折點(diǎn)應(yīng)該叫什么呢？是青少年時(shí)期嗎？是中年時(shí)期嗎？是老年階段嗎？ 其實(shí)對(duì)大多數(shù)人來 說，答案是,現(xiàn)在,無

7、論現(xiàn)在發(fā)生在什么。今天我想讓大家明白的是，我們所有人都在圍繞著一種錯(cuò)覺生活，這種錯(cuò)覺就是，我們每個(gè)人的過去，都已經(jīng)結(jié)束 了，我們已經(jīng)成為了我們 應(yīng)該成為的那種人，在余下的生命中也都會(huì)如此。Let me give you some data to back up that claim. So here's a study of change in people's personal values over time. Here's three values. Everybody here holds all of them, but you probably know t

8、hat as you grow, as you age, the balance of these values shifts. So how does it do so? Well, we asked thousands of people. We asked half of them to predict for us how much their values would change in the next 10 years, and the others to tell us how much their values had changed in the last 10 years

9、. And this enabled us to do a really interesting kind of analysis, because it allowed us to compare the predictions of people, say, 18 years old, to the reports of people who were 28, and to do that kind of analysis throughout the lifespan.我想給你們展示一些數(shù)據(jù)來支持這個(gè)觀點(diǎn)。這是一項(xiàng)關(guān)于人們的個(gè)人價(jià)值觀隨時(shí)間變化的研究。這里有3種價(jià)值觀。每個(gè)人的生活都與這

10、三個(gè)價(jià)值觀相關(guān)，但是你們可能知道，隨著你們慢慢長(zhǎng)大，變老，這三個(gè)價(jià)值觀 的平衡點(diǎn)會(huì)不斷變化。到底是怎么回事呢？我們?cè)儐柫藬?shù)千人。我們讓他們當(dāng)中一半的人預(yù)測(cè)了一下在未來10年中他們的價(jià)值觀會(huì)發(fā)生多大的改變，讓另一半人告訴我們?cè)谶^去的10年中他們的價(jià)值觀發(fā)生了多大 的變化。這項(xiàng)調(diào)查可以讓我們做一個(gè)很有趣的分析，因?yàn)樗梢宰屛覀儗⒋蠹s18 歲左右的人的預(yù)測(cè)同大約28歲左右的人的答案相比較，這項(xiàng)分析可以貫穿人的一 生。Here's what we found. First of all, you are right, change does slow down as we age, but s

11、econd, you're wrong, because it doesn't slow nearly as much as we think. At every age, from 18 to 68 in our data set, people vastly underestimated how much change they would experience over the next 10 years. We call this the "end of history" illusion. To give you an idea of the ma

12、gnitude of this effect, you can connect these two lines, and what you see here is that 18-year-olds anticipate changing only as much as 50-year-olds actually do.這是我們的發(fā)現(xiàn)。首先，你們是對(duì)的，隨著我們年齡的增長(zhǎng)，變化會(huì)減緩。第二， 你們錯(cuò)了，因?yàn)檫@種變化并不像我們想象的那么慢。在我們的數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)從18歲至U 68歲的每一個(gè)年齡段 中,人們大大的低估了在未來的10年他們會(huì)經(jīng)歷多少變化。我們 把這叫做 歷史終止”錯(cuò)覺。為了讓你們了解這種影響

13、有多大，你們可以把這兩條線 連接起來，你們現(xiàn)在看到的是18歲的人群預(yù)期的改變僅僅和50歲的人群實(shí)際經(jīng)歷 的一樣。Now it's not just values. It's all sorts of other things. For example, personality. Many of you know that psychologists now claim that there are five fundamental dimensions of personality: neuroticism, openness to experience, agreeablen

14、ess, extraversion, and conscientiousness. Again, we asked people how much they expected to change over the next 10 years, and also how much they had changedover the last 10 years, and what we found, well, you're going to get used to seeing this diagram over and over, because once again the rate

15、of change does slow as we age, but at every age, people underestimate how much their personalities will change in the next decade.現(xiàn)在不僅僅是價(jià)值觀了。其他的方面都也有變化。比如說，人格。你們當(dāng)中的很多人知道現(xiàn)在心理學(xué)家們認(rèn)為人格可以分為五個(gè)基本維度：神經(jīng)質(zhì)性，經(jīng)驗(yàn)汲取度， 協(xié)調(diào)性，外向性和道德感。回到原來的話題，我們問人們他們期待未來的10年中自 己會(huì)有多大的變化，以及他們?cè)谶^去的10年中發(fā)生了多少變化，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)了，你們會(huì) 習(xí)慣不斷地看到這個(gè)圖表，因?yàn)橛忠淮?，變?/p>

16、速率隨著我們的年齡增長(zhǎng)減慢了。但是在每一個(gè)年齡階段，人們都低估了在 未來的十年中他們的人格會(huì)發(fā)生多大的改 變。And it isn't just ephemeral things like values and personality. You can ask people about their likes and dislikes, their basic preferences. For example, name your best friend, your favorite kind of vacation, what's your favorite hobby, w

17、hat's your favorite kind of music. People can name these things. We ask half of them to tell us, "Do you think that that will change over the next 10 years?" and half of them to tell us, "Did that change over the last 10 years?" And what we find, well, you've seen it twic

18、e now, and here it is again: people predict that the friend they have now is the friend they'll have in 10 years, the vacation they most enjoy now is the one they'll enjoy in 10 years, and yet, people who are 10 years older all say, "Eh, you know, that's really changed."而且不光是像價(jià)

19、值觀和人格這樣的臨時(shí)性的特質(zhì)。你們可以問問人們關(guān)于他們喜好和厭惡的 事，他們基本的偏好。比如說，說出你最好月1友的名字，你最喜歡什么 樣的假期，你最大的愛好是什么，你最喜歡什么樣的音樂。人們可以說出這些事 情。我們讓他們當(dāng)中的一半人告 訴我們，你認(rèn)為這在未來10年內(nèi)會(huì)改變嗎？ ”讓另 一半告訴我們，這個(gè)在過去十年內(nèi) 變化了嗎？"我們的發(fā)現(xiàn)是，嗯，這個(gè)圖你們已經(jīng)看 過2次了,再展示一次：人們推測(cè)他 們現(xiàn)在的朋友在未來10年中還會(huì)是他們的朋友， 他們喜歡的度假之地在未來10年內(nèi)還會(huì) 是他們喜歡的地方，然而，年長(zhǎng)10歲的人都 會(huì)說：嗯,你知道，這確實(shí)不一樣了。" Does any

20、 of this matter? Is this just a form ofmis-prediction that doesn't have consequences? No, it matters quite a bit, and I'll give you an example of why. It bedevils our decision-making in important ways. Bring to mind right now for yourself your favorite musician today and your favorite musici

21、an 10 years ago. I put mine up on the screen to help you along. Now we asked people to predict for us, to tell us how much money they would pay right now to see their current favorite musician perform in concert 10 years from now, and on average, people said they would pay 129 dollars for that ticke

22、t. And yet, when we asked them how much they would pay to see the person who was their favorite 10 years ago perform today, they say only 80 dollars. Now, in a perfectly rational world, these should be the same number, but we overpay for the opportunity to indulge our current preferences because we

23、overestimate their stability.這有什么關(guān)系嗎？這只是一種并不會(huì)有什么后果的錯(cuò)誤的預(yù)測(cè)嗎 ？不，這有很大 的關(guān)系，我會(huì)舉例告訴你們?yōu)槭裁础?它在很多重要的方面困擾著我們做決定。現(xiàn)在想想你們此時(shí)此刻最喜歡的音樂人，還有10年前你們最喜歡的音樂人。我把我的答案放在大屏幕 上作為提示?，F(xiàn)在我們讓人們預(yù)測(cè)一下，告訴我們他們現(xiàn)在愿意付多少錢來參加 他們現(xiàn)在最喜歡的音樂人 從現(xiàn)在起10年后的音樂會(huì)，平均來講，人們會(huì)說他們會(huì) 付129美元買票。然而，當(dāng)我們問 他們?cè)敢飧抖嗌馘X去看他們10年前喜歡的人現(xiàn) 在的演出，他們說只有80塊。那么，在一 個(gè)完全理性的世界里，這兩個(gè)數(shù)字應(yīng)該是相同

24、的，但是我們?yōu)槌两诋?dāng)前喜好中的機(jī)會(huì)付了更多的錢，因?yàn)槲覀兏吖懒怂鼈兊某志眯浴?Why does this happen? We're not entirely sure, but it probably has to do with the ease of remembering versus the difficulty of imagining. Most of us can remember who we were 10 years ago, but we find it hard to imagine who we're going to be, and then w

25、e mistakenly think that because it's hard to imagine, it's not likely to happen. Sorry, when people say "I can't imagine that," they're usually talking about their own lack of imagination, and not about the unlikelihood of the event that they're describing.為什么會(huì)發(fā)生這樣的變化呢？我們也不是很確定，不過這可能與記憶的消逝和想象的難度相 關(guān)。我們中的大多數(shù)人都能記得10年前的我們是什么樣子， 但是要想像我們會(huì)成為什么樣的人就困難了，然后我們會(huì)錯(cuò)誤地認(rèn)為因?yàn)楹茈y想 象，就不太可能會(huì)發(fā)生。很遺憾，當(dāng)人們 說 我可想象不出來”，他們通常是在表 達(dá)他們?nèi)狈ο胂罅?，而不是他們所描述的不可能發(fā)生的事情。The bottom line is,time is a powerful force. It transform