地震危險性分析PPT教案

1、會計學1地震危險性分析地震危險性分析第1頁/共50頁第2頁/共50頁第3頁/共50頁第4頁/共50頁第5頁/共50頁征。征。第6頁/共50頁第7頁/共50頁第8頁/共50頁第9頁/共50頁第10頁/共50頁第11頁/共50頁第12頁/共50頁第13頁/共50頁第14頁/共50頁第15頁/共50頁bMaMN)(lg第16頁/共50頁!)exp()(kkPkii第17頁/共50頁第18頁/共50頁第19頁/共50頁第20頁/共50頁Potential source area delineationIdentify and characterize (geometry and potential M

2、) all earthquake sources capable of generating significant shaking at the site. See the figure above in which three sources are shown surrounding the site. For each source, develop the probability distribution of rupture locations within the source. A uniform probability distribution is generally ch

3、osen, which means that earthquakes are equally likely of occurring at any point along or in the source. Combine these distributions with the source geometry to obtain the probability distribution of source-to-site distance. Contrast this with DSHA that assumes that the probability of occurrence is 1

4、 at the points in each source zone closest to the site and 0 elsewhere.第21頁/共50頁第22頁/共50頁第23頁/共50頁第24頁/共50頁第25頁/共50頁泛的地震安全性評價技術工作。泛的地震安全性評價技術工作。第26頁/共50頁場地地震安全性評價的場地地震安全性評價的主要內容及基本分析步主要內容及基本分析步驟驟 第27頁/共50頁第28頁/共50頁第29頁/共50頁第30頁/共50頁第31頁/共50頁第32頁/共50頁第33頁/共50頁第34頁/共50頁Probability calculation給定在某一潛在震源

5、區(qū)中發(fā)生一次震級為mj的地震的條件下，地震危險性 的計算)(jiEyYP給定在某一潛在震源區(qū)中發(fā)生一次震級為mj的地震的條件下，地震危險性 的計算Poisson假定下，給定在該潛在震源區(qū)中發(fā)生多次震級為mj的地震的條件下，地震危險性的累加)(0.1000.10.1!)()(0.10.1)()(0.10.1)(jijijijijijiEyYPtEyYPttnnjinjitnjinjijieeentEyYPenPEyYPyYP第35頁/共50頁jjiiyYPyYP)(0 .1 0 .1)(kiEyYPtikjikkijjikeyYPyYP)(0 . 1)(0 . 1)(第36頁/共50頁Seism

6、ic hazard estimationThe ground motion produced at the site by earthquakes of any possible size (magnitude) occurring at any possible point in each source zone must be determined with the use of predictive (attenuation) relationships. The uncertainty inherent in the attenuation relationship is also c

7、onsidered explicitly in PSHA unlike DSHA.The uncertainties in earthquake location, size, and ground motion prediction are combined to obtain the probability that the ground motion parameter (e.g., PHA, spectral acceleration) will be exceeded in a particular time period (say 10% in 50 years).第37頁/共50頁)()()(tXtftaNkkkktAtX0)sin()(第38頁/共50頁第39頁/共50頁第40頁/共5